Russia invades Ukraine

[ainsworth74]

Doesn't NATO's area of responsibility only reach as far as the Tropic of Cancer?

Indeed so Article Six refers:

Article 6​

For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

• on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France*, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
• on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.

*On January 16, 1963, the North Atlantic Council noted that insofar as the former Algerian Departments of France were concerned, the relevant clauses of this Treaty had become inapplicable as from July 3, 1962.

The North Atlantic Treaty

www.nato.int

But that would still have been an armed attack on one of the parties in the relevant area! Would have been an interesting diplomatic conundrum.

 

[Giugiaro]

Indeed so Article Six refers:

F for Puerto Rico

 

[43096]

It's exactly as you say. NATO didn't attack Argentina in 1982, for instance.

And in the flip side, I don’t recall NATO invoking Article 5 given that Argentina invaded a NATO member.

 

[REVUpminster]

If Hawaii was attacked, how would NATO respond? Or Alaska?

 

[najaB]

If Hawaii was attacked, how would NATO respond? Or Alaska?

Alaska is clearly part of North America.

 

[gg1]

If Hawaii was attacked, how would NATO respond? Or Alaska?

Alaska is clearly part of North America.

...and they're both also an integral part of the United States.

The Falklands are more comparable to somewhere like Guam.

 

[ainsworth74]

And in the flip side, I don’t recall NATO invoking Article 5 given that Argentina invaded a NATO member.

NATO can't invoke anything off it's own bat the individual member state that was attacked would have to. But in any event the Falklands are outside of the relevant area as they're in the South Atlantic.

If Hawaii was attacked, how would NATO respond? Or Alaska?

Hawaii is outside the area covered by NATO so an attack on Hawaii would not give rise to a NATO response by treaty. Obviously if US invoked Article 5 the Atlantic Council might end up voting in favour of providing support through NATO mechanisms anyway but it would be by no means certain.

...and they're both also an integral part of the United States.

The Falklands are more comparable to somewhere like Guam.

The Atlantic Treaty doesn't require them to be "integral" parts of any NATO member:

For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack ... or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer...

 

[brad465]

In other words, they're planning to declare war (even though they are at war already):

Ukraine war: Russia denies it plans to declare war on 9 May

The Kremlin has so far only referred to the war in Ukraine as a "special military operation".

www.bbc.co.uk

Russia has dismissed speculation that it will declare all-out war in Ukraine in the coming days as "nonsense".
Moscow has up until now denied it is at war, instead referring to the invasion as a "special military operation".
But Western officials have speculated that President Vladimir Putin could use the 9 May Victory Parade to announce an escalation of military action.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, however, said there was no truth to the rumours "at all".
UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said last week that the Moscow parade - commemorating the defeat of the Nazis and World War Two - might be used to drum up support for a mass mobilisation of troops and renewed push into Ukraine.
"I would not be surprised, and I don't have any information about this, that he is probably going to declare on this May Day that 'we are now at war with the world's Nazis and we need to mass mobilise the Russian people'," he told LBC radio.
Russian officials only refer to the invasion as a "special military operation" to "demilitarise" or "de-Nazify" the country, referencing a baseless claim about Nazis in the Ukrainian government which Moscow used to justify the invasion.
As well as the annual parade in Moscow, there are also long-standing reports that the Kremlin is planning some sort of additional parade in the city of Mariupol in southern Ukraine, almost all of which is now under Russian control. Ukrainian forces remain in one area of the city - a vast industrial steelworks called Azovstal.
Latest reports suggest that after the recent successful evacuation of some civilians, attacks on the steelworks have resumed and contact has been lost with the last remaining soldiers inside.
Ukrainian officials say the streets of the city centre are being cleared of debris, bodies, and unexploded bombs. Large parts of the city lie in ruins, after Russian forces bombarded it relentlessly for weeks under siege.
Ukrainian politician Alyona Shkrum told the BBC she was expecting things to become more difficult alongside Russia's victory day celebrations.
"For Putin and for the empire he's trying to build, basically this is a symbolic day, right?" she said.
"So he takes some kind of victory day and he turns it into a big fight right now against Nazis, which is obviously Russian propaganda and completely ridiculous.
"We are expecting that there will be quite tough times here in Kyiv and in Odesa and in Mariupol, and in other cities for 9 May."

 

[Yew]

In other words, they're planning to declare war (even though they are at war already):

Ukraine war: Russia denies it plans to declare war on 9 May

The Kremlin has so far only referred to the war in Ukraine as a "special military operation".

www.bbc.co.uk

There does seem to be a remarkable precedent of Russia doing exactly what it said it wasn't going to.

 

[najaB]

There does seem to be a remarkable precedent of Russia doing exactly what it said it wasn't going to.

Today, as much as ever, Russia remains a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.

 

[Shrop]

Does anyone know why we have to wait until the end of the year to stop importing Russian oil and gas, when only a small percentage of our consumption comes from them?

 

[Bungle73]

There does seem to be a remarkable precedent of Russia doing exactly what it said it wasn't going to.

Compulsive liars is what they are.

 

[Cloud Strife]

In other words, they're planning to declare war (even though they are at war already):

I just wonder if the Russian public are really prepared for what a formal declaration of war will mean. I'm not thinking about the mass (forced) mobilisation of students and so on, but the reality that Ukraine will be able to bring the war straight into Russia. Russia is an enormous country, and it's very difficult to secure in terms of internal security.

 

[takno]

I just wonder if the Russian public are really prepared for what a formal declaration of war will mean. I'm not thinking about the mass (forced) mobilisation of students and so on, but the reality that Ukraine will be able to bring the war straight into Russia. Russia is an enormous country, and it's very difficult to secure in terms of internal security.

Apparently Belarus are preparing to mobilize their military, perhaps in a sign that Lukshenko realises that he will last exactly 15 minutes longer than Putin. In a particularly heroic gesture they're allegedly pointing some of them at Lithuania, which I suspect would result in polite but firm rocket attack taking out the presidential palace.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Apparently Belarus are preparing to mobilize their military, perhaps in a sign that Lukshenko realises that he will last exactly 15 minutes longer than Putin. In a particularly heroic gesture they're allegedly pointing some of them at Lithuania, which I suspect would result in polite but firm rocket attack taking out the presidential palace.

I just cannot see Belarus getting involved on a serious level. They've stayed mostly out of it so far, and their armed forces have absolutely no chance against the battle hardened Ukrainians.

Perhaps they'd get involved if they were attacked in a serious way, but it was very noticeable that Belarus started to back off as soon as Ukraine said "We'll smash you to pieces if you get involved".

 

[gingerheid]

There does seem to be a remarkable precedent of Russia doing exactly what it said it wasn't going to.

Compulsive liars is what they are.

It's for reason of the second post that I'm expecting them to instead announce that Ukraine declared war on them.

 

[Monarch010]

There's been a lot of, frankly empty, rhetoric spouted around the world over the situation in Ukraine, not least by Boris "Winston" Johnson.
The country that has impressed me the most, after Ukraine, is Poland. They've had a rather flaky relationship with the EU of late, but they have really stepped up to the plate, accepting thousands of NATO troops and armaments from the west and thousands of Ukrainians fleeing their ravaged country without imposing onerous requirements for visas and so on.

 

[DustyBin]

There's been a lot of, frankly empty, rhetoric spouted around the world over the situation in Ukraine, not least by Boris "Winston" Johnson.
The country that has impressed me the most, after Ukraine, is Poland. They've had a rather flaky relationship with the EU of late, but they have really stepped up to the plate, accepting thousands of NATO troops and armaments from the west and thousands of Ukrainians fleeing their ravaged country without imposing onerous requirements for visas and so on.

Whatever you think of Boris, the UK has been one of the leading (if not the leading) nations when it comes to standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine. Ask the Russians, or the Ukrainians for that matter. What would you have us do beyond what we are doing out of interest?

I agree with you in regard to Poland, although accepting NATO troops isn’t really a hardship under the circumstances!

 

[Scotrail314209]

So, what do we think Putin will pull on May 9th?

They say they won't declare all out war, but they might.

Imo, my opinion is that they'll ramp up the Azovstal offensive, take out the last defenders and claim that they've successfully liberated Mariupol, and they'll celebrate it on May 9th.

They'll need something like a victory.

 

[Monarch010]

Whatever you think of Boris, the UK has been one of the leading (if not the leading) nations when it comes to standing up to Russia and supporting Ukraine. Ask the Russians, or the Ukrainians for that matter. What would you have us do beyond what we are doing out of interest?

I agree with you in regard to Poland, although accepting NATO troops isn’t really a hardship under the circumstances!

Oh, there isn't much more that anyone can do other than voicing support and supplying arms for fear of escalating the situation beyond what control exists.
The conflict looks like continuing for months or years, so an immediate need is a concerted humanitarian effort, an area where the UK has not been a leader.

 

[Pete_uk]

They say they won't declare all out war

Which means they will.

We are sending a load of drones with 40km range. More grenades through sunroofs!

 

[DustyBin]

Oh, there isn't much more that anyone can do other than voicing support and supplying arms for fear of escalating the situation beyond what control exists.
The conflict looks like continuing for months or years, so an immediate need is a concerted humanitarian effort, an area where the UK has not been a leader.

The visa situation is a disgrace to be fair. I’m not sure that the UK is first on the list of many Ukrainians preferred destinations however, as I expect the majority want to return home in the near future. It’s far quicker and easier to cross the border from Poland for example. Again that’s not to defend the treatment of those who do wish to come here.

 

[Monarch010]

The visa situation is a disgrace to be fair. I’m not sure that the UK is first on the list of many Ukrainians preferred destinations however, as I expect the majority want to return home in the near future. It’s far quicker and easier to cross the border from Poland for example. Again that’s not to defend the treatment of those who do wish to come here.

There's also the impact of the disruption to production and export of food from Ukraine to areas like North Africa. If the Russians are successful in taking control of the Black Sea coast then that's going to open up a new front in the humanitarian crisis.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Ukraine war has dragged on, admits Putin ally Lukashenko

Belarus's authoritarian leader Lukashenko has defended the war but wants it to end.

www.bbc.co.uk

Looks like Lukashenko may be getting a bit anxious about the war.

A key ally of Russia, authoritarian Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, has defended the war in Ukraine while indicating it has not gone to plan.
He told the AP news agency that the operation had "dragged on".
Belarus shares a border with Ukraine and Russia sent troops from there when it launched its invasion.
Russia's Vladimir Putin helped Mr Lukashenko cling to power in 2020 after his widely disputed presidential re-election sparked mass protests.
In turn, Belarus's long-time leader has given his backing to Russia's invasion and critics have said he is little more than a vassal and accomplice to Mr Putin.
In his interview with AP, Mr Lukashenko said that Russia's leader had no choice but to act because Ukraine was "provoking Russia".
But he added: "I am not immersed in this problem enough to say whether it goes according to plan, like the Russians say, or like I feel it.
"I want to stress one more time: I feel like this operation has dragged on."
Mr Lukashenko said he wanted the war to end, saying Belarus had "done and are doing everything" to stop it.

By calling it a war, he went further than Russia's own description of its invasion as a "special military operation". Moscow has justified the war as an effort to "demilitarise and de-Nazify" Ukraine - which is considered a baseless pretext.
Mr Lukashenko also said that any suggestion that Russia might use nuclear weapons against Ukraine was "unacceptable because it's right next to us", but added he did not know whether Moscow intended to use them.

Granted the part about Belarus doing it's part for the war to end is complete and utter bull, but it does show that allies may be getting anxious at how long it's going on.

 

[AlterEgo]

Oh, there isn't much more that anyone can do other than voicing support and supplying arms for fear of escalating the situation beyond what control exists.
The conflict looks like continuing for months or years, so an immediate need is a concerted humanitarian effort, an area where the UK has not been a leader.

The most immediate need is materiel, which the UK has been a leader in providing. We have also trained Ukraine’s troops for the past seven years for just this eventuality.

Ask Ukrainians who their best ally is.

 

[Annetts key]

The most immediate need is materiel, which the UK has been a leader in providing. We have also trained Ukraine’s troops for the past seven years for just this eventuality.

Ask Ukrainians who their best ally is.

But the training help from the U.K. predates Boris. And it’s likely that whatever poltical party was in power, the U.K. would have helped Ukraine. It’s also possible that we may have done more or done it quicker. We will never know.

 

[DustyBin]

There's also the impact of the disruption to production and export of food from Ukraine to areas like North Africa. If the Russians are successful in taking control of the Black Sea coast then that's going to open up a new front in the humanitarian crisis.

True, but regardless of who controls where there’s a looming food crisis. It’s one of the consequences of this war that’s easily overlooked, but the food shortages are going to hit poor countries very hard. Yet more victims of Putin’s utter stupidity.

Ukraine war has dragged on, admits Putin ally Lukashenko

Belarus's authoritarian leader Lukashenko has defended the war but wants it to end.

www.bbc.co.uk

Looks like Lukashenko may be getting a bit anxious about the war.


Granted the part about Belarus doing it's part for the war to end is complete and utter bull, but it does show that allies may be getting anxious at how long it's going on.

I’m convinced Lukashenko is clinging on by his fingernails. Like Putin’s other allies (or supposed allies) I imagine he’s horrified by the performance of the Russian military in Ukraine. “Backing the wrong horse” is the expression I think!

 

[AlterEgo]

But the training help from the U.K. predates Boris. And it’s likely that whatever poltical party was in power, the U.K. would have helped Ukraine. It’s also possible that we may have done more or done it quicker. We will never know.

Boris is the head of our government, I’m not sure how his rhetoric is “empty” given Britain’s steadfast support of the Ukrainians. It doesn’t matter that Boris didn’t himself have the idea to send troops to Ukraine after the Crimean crisis, what.

 

[ainsworth74]

I’m convinced Lukashenko is clinging on by his fingernails.

Indeed. He likely is only in power after the protests following the corrupt presidential election in 2020 because he was able to pick up the phone to his mate Vlad and get him to send support and knew that if push really came to shove that lots "little green men" could be called in to back him up. Well now Vlad and his security services are extremely distracted so wouldn't have the same amount of support to send and a lot of the "little green men" that would have been sent to prop his regime up are dead in and around Hostomel airport.

 

[Strathclyder]

I’m convinced Lukashenko is clinging on by his fingernails.

Has been for a while now imo. Putin's Russia is the only reason he's managed to maintain his grip on power for so long. If the protests that occured in 2020 in the wake of that utter sham of a presidential election were to start up again tomorrow, he'd be finished due to the reasons @ainsworth74 spells out above. I await the day he gets run out of the halls of power on a rail with relish; few leaders out there today - barring one V. Putin - deserve it as much as he does.