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Russia invades Ukraine

birchesgreen

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Were they ever really on the table?
Well Biden mentioned them.


Joe Biden has said the US will not supply Ukraine with rockets that can reach into Russia, in an attempt to ease tensions with Moscow over the potential deployment of long-range missiles with a range of about 185 miles.
 
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yorksrob

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Err..I thought the war was in Ukraine.

Forget Britain - it's not important.

It is clear that the military aid in terms of missile systems from the US is being scaled back - it appears that wiser heads in the Pentagon may have told the ludicrous Biden regime where to get off!

Nonsense. Biden will be making sure that Ukraine will be getting what it needs.
 

Trackman

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They did draw back on longer range missiles which could have struck Russia.
Can someone please clear this up /clarify for me?
This is what from I have read (like bbc news):
They are sending kit that can handle long range missiles, but are only sending medium range missiles for the system.

TBH, I think the last thing on the Ukrainians minds would be attacking Russia as they have enough to deal with as it is.
 

TheEdge

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They are sending kit that can handle long range missiles, but are only sending medium range missiles for the system.

They are being send the HIMARS launch vehicles, which is a more mobile version of the M270 (which we are sending) and is somewhat more capable than what they currently have (mainly the BM-21 Grad, which is a 1960s system directly related to the famous Katyusha launchers of WWII) but only being provided with a missile with a 70km range, in theory it can fire missiles with a 300-500km range.

The big thing this will finally do is level the artillery playing field in Ukraine. While both sides are mostly fielding the same exact systems, even though Russia has considerably more, the Ukrainians have not really had an answer to the BM-30 Smerch and 9A52-4 Tornado which massively outrange anything they had to date so can operate with relative impunity. Not anymore. And the Smerch is the one that's been doing the damage, a lot of the bits of missile plucked out of military targets like schools, theatres and hospitals have been Smerch munitions.
 

bspahh

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They are being send the HIMARS launch vehicles, which is a more mobile version of the M270 (which we are sending) and is somewhat more capable than what they currently have (mainly the BM-21 Grad, which is a 1960s system directly related to the famous Katyusha launchers of WWII) but only being provided with a missile with a 70km range, in theory it can fire missiles with a 300-500km range.

The big thing this will finally do is level the artillery playing field in Ukraine. While both sides are mostly fielding the same exact systems, even though Russia has considerably more, the Ukrainians have not really had an answer to the BM-30 Smerch and 9A52-4 Tornado which massively outrange anything they had to date so can operate with relative impunity. Not anymore. And the Smerch is the one that's been doing the damage, a lot of the bits of missile plucked out of military targets like schools, theatres and hospitals have been Smerch munitions.
There is a plausible thread on these missile systems here

The big change will be that the increased range will mean that they can cover a wide area, and be located where its easy to supply them with munitions from trucks. They can fire 5-6 volleys per hour, compared to ~ 1 per hour for the Russian equivalents. They can also fire and move, so they are more difficult to target.
 

Falcon1200

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TBH, I think the last thing on the Ukrainians minds would be attacking Russia as they have enough to deal with as it is.

I would have though attacking military targets (ONLY) in Russia would be a major boost to Ukraine, in the actual war, of course, but also the propaganda battle, bringing it home to some Russians at least exactly what their President has unleashed. Given what Russia has already done to Ukraine they have every right to respond.
 

AlterEgo

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I would have though attacking military targets (ONLY) in Russia would be a major boost to Ukraine, in the actual war, of course, but also the propaganda battle, bringing it home to some Russians at least exactly what their President has unleashed. Given what Russia has already done to Ukraine they have every right to respond.
I would be less surprised to see some sabotage attacks in Russia. Perhaps not traditional military strikes but perhaps surgical, targeted, morale-sapping events on military targets, by commandos or similar.
 

najaB

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I would have though attacking military targets (ONLY) in Russia would be a major boost to Ukraine, in the actual war, of course, but also the propaganda battle, bringing it home to some Russians at least exactly what their President has unleashed.
It would, but they need to tread carefully - using NATO-supplied weapons to attack Russia also plays into Putin's paranoia.
 

JamesT

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I would be less surprised to see some sabotage attacks in Russia. Perhaps not traditional military strikes but perhaps surgical, targeted, morale-sapping events on military targets, by commandos or similar.
Wasn’t there an attack on a fuel depot inside Russia earlier in the war?
 

Cloud Strife

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Something tells me that this so-called 'magical plan' doesn't exist and never has existed. Call me a 'armchair fantasist' if you must for harbouring such thoughts...

I do think the original plan was to get into Kyiv, kill/capture Zelensky and install a puppet government before anyone knew what was happening. The Russians appeared to have no idea whatsoever that Ukraine was ready for them, and they appeared to get a tremendous shock when Ukrainian civilians started gleefully wrecking them with Molotov cocktails.

Were they ever really on the table?

Some sources suggest that the Ukrainians are perfectly capable of reverse engineering the provided missiles in order to figure out how to send them further. It gives the Americans plausible deniability, while still achieving the intended aim. I suspect that the Americans have made it crystal clear though that they shouldn't be attacking Russia proper, but Crimea/"LDPR" are fair game.

Beaten to it. Ukraine had to agree not to use them to fire into Russian territory (direct confrontation) as a condition for supply.

They don't need to do it. From what I can see, the provided system should manage to bring the Crimean administrative border into play. Access to Crimea by road is through a very narrow strip, and the occupation of Kherson Oblast depends heavily on this strip being open. If Ukraine can target this area at will, it will cause tremendous operational difficulties for the Russians.

Anyway, today, some interesting news. The provincial governor responsible for Severodonetsk has claimed that Ukraine has made a major counterattack in the city. Ukraine is very careful not to announce military success immediately, which suggests that they must have achieved something significant within the city. They are suggesting that Russia is throwing everything they can at the battle there, and there are voices suggesting that Russia has been lured into some kind of trap there due to the advantage provided by the high ground across the river.

The thing that keeps coming back to me is that Russia is expending a huge amount of effort to take a very small amount of territory. It's simply not sustainable, and we can see that the Ukrainians are now making progress to the NE of Kherson.
 

Roast Veg

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On the basis that they are able to sell the oil and gas to other buyers who are happy to deal with them.

On the basis that the Rouble far from collapsing has gone from strength to strength.
It won't be long before Russia default on their debt due to a total lack of foreign currency. They've only narrowly avoided it this far. When that happens expect the Roububble to pop.
TBH, I think the last thing on the Ukrainians minds would be attacking Russia as they have enough to deal with as it is.
It's also bad for their PR to be openly targeting non Ukraine soil, especially with artillery. They'll almost certainly avoid using it beyond the borders, as the US have asked, because they'll want a resupply later.
I would be less surprised to see some sabotage attacks in Russia. Perhaps not traditional military strikes but perhaps surgical, targeted, morale-sapping events on military targets, by commandos or similar.
I seem to recall more than one event (not just the fuel silo) that appeared to be either civil sabotage or the scenario you describe. I believe it could well be Ukrainian in origin, but they won't take credit for it for the reasons above.
 

Cloud Strife

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It won't be long before Russia default on their debt due to a total lack of foreign currency. They've only narrowly avoided it this far. When that happens expect the Roububble to pop.

They're now considering imposing negative interest rates on euro/dollar deposits, which says a lot about how desperate for cash they are.

The latest news from Severodonetsk is that around half the city is under Ukrainian control. It means that the Russians lost around 30% of the city overnight, which is remarkable when you compare to how the war progressed in Mariupol.

But again: what is going on? There are reports that "DPR" soldiers won't fight for the "LPR", but it also seems that the Russians are now getting a very good taste of what awaited them in Kyiv/Odesa/etc.
 
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DustyBin

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They are being send the HIMARS launch vehicles, which is a more mobile version of the M270 (which we are sending) and is somewhat more capable than what they currently have (mainly the BM-21 Grad, which is a 1960s system directly related to the famous Katyusha launchers of WWII) but only being provided with a missile with a 70km range, in theory it can fire missiles with a 300-500km range.

The big thing this will finally do is level the artillery playing field in Ukraine. While both sides are mostly fielding the same exact systems, even though Russia has considerably more, the Ukrainians have not really had an answer to the BM-30 Smerch and 9A52-4 Tornado which massively outrange anything they had to date so can operate with relative impunity. Not anymore. And the Smerch is the one that's been doing the damage, a lot of the bits of missile plucked out of military targets like schools, theatres and hospitals have been Smerch munitions.

Reuters are reporting that the US is looking to “sell” four Gray Eagle drones to Ukraine. This may well be connected to the decision to supply HIMARS as it would provide extremely useful intelligence gathering capability, but it’s also worth noting that a Gray Eagle can carry four Hellfires……

Incidentally, for those not aware, a Gray Eagle looks suspiciously like a Predator, and a quick Google reveals that it is indeed the US Army’s version of it. They’ll tear Russian ground forces to shreds if used to attack directly.

*Edited to correct the number of Hellfires that can be carried, which the Reuters’s article erroneously states as being eight.
 
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TheEdge

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Reuters are reporting that the US is looking to “sell” four Gray Eagle drones to Ukraine. This may well be connected to the decision to supply HIMARS as it would provide extremely useful intelligence gathering capability, but it’s also worth noting that a Gray Eagle can carry four Hellfires……

"Artillery spotting" with Hellfires...
 

coppercapped

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I do think the original plan was to get into Kyiv, kill/capture Zelensky and install a puppet government before anyone knew what was happening. The Russians appeared to have no idea whatsoever that Ukraine was ready for them, and they appeared to get a tremendous shock when Ukrainian civilians started gleefully wrecking them with Molotov cocktails.



Some sources suggest that the Ukrainians are perfectly capable of reverse engineering the provided missiles in order to figure out how to send them further. It gives the Americans plausible deniability, while still achieving the intended aim. I suspect that the Americans have made it crystal clear though that they shouldn't be attacking Russia proper, but Crimea/"LDPR" are fair game.



They don't need to do it. From what I can see, the provided system should manage to bring the Crimean administrative border into play. Access to Crimea by road is through a very narrow strip, and the occupation of Kherson Oblast depends heavily on this strip being open. If Ukraine can target this area at will, it will cause tremendous operational difficulties for the Russians.

Anyway, today, some interesting news. The provincial governor responsible for Severodonetsk has claimed that Ukraine has made a major counterattack in the city. Ukraine is very careful not to announce military success immediately, which suggests that they must have achieved something significant within the city. They are suggesting that Russia is throwing everything they can at the battle there, and there are voices suggesting that Russia has been lured into some kind of trap there due to the advantage provided by the high ground across the river.

The thing that keeps coming back to me is that Russia is expending a huge amount of effort to take a very small amount of territory. It's simply not sustainable, and we can see that the Ukrainians are now making progress to the NE of Kherson.
I agree with this analysis. However I would go further as Putin's stated list of war (sorry, 'special military operation') aims were:
  • Demilitarisation of Ukraine
  • Denazification of Ukraine
  • Protection of the Donbas
  • Countering NATO expansion.
After 100 days the first has clearly not occurred, there are more troops - many of these being from the Russian Federation :'( - and equipment there now than at the start.

The second was always clearly a myth.

To the third bullet point it has become clear that he was right in his analysis and the Donbas does need protecting. Except that the people and the houses need protection from the Russian army. And to those posters here who think the Russian army will 'win' I would point out that this huge army is struggling to gain a conclusive victory on a 50km long front.

Impressive or what?

And the last point is Putin's biggest own goal of all. Seeing tanks and troops running over a neighbouring country's territory has persuaded the Finns and the Swedes to apply to join the NATO alliance. In the case of Sweden this reverses a 200 year old policy of neutrality. The Swedes bring a potent air force and the Finns a large number of well equipped ground troops which can be quickly mobilised. He has achieved a result entirely opposite to that which he proclaimed he sought.

The Russian concept of a 'near abroad' whereby Moscow influences the politics of countries bordering Russia is very clearly dead. If things continue as they are for another few months and as Putin's influence wanes then Belarus is also likely to shake itself loose.

Vladimir Vladimirovich - result!
 

DustyBin

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I agree with this analysis. However I would go further as Putin's stated list of war (sorry, 'special military operation') aims were:
  • Demilitarisation of Ukraine
  • Denazification of Ukraine
  • Protection of the Donbas
  • Countering NATO expansion.
After 100 days the first has clearly not occurred, there are more troops - many of these being from the Russian Federation :'( - and equipment there now than at the start.

The second was always clearly a myth.

To the third bullet point it has become clear that he was right in his analysis and the Donbas does need protecting. Except that the people and the houses need protection from the Russian army. And to those posters here who think the Russian army will 'win' I would point out that this huge army is struggling to gain a conclusive victory on a 50km long front.

Impressive or what?

And the last point is Putin's biggest own goal of all. Seeing tanks and troops running over a neighbouring country's territory has persuaded the Finns and the Swedes to apply to join the NATO alliance. In the case of Sweden this reverses a 200 year old policy of neutrality. The Swedes bring a potent air force and the Finns a large number of well equipped ground troops which can be quickly mobilised. He has achieved a result entirely opposite to that which he proclaimed he sought.

The Russian concept of a 'near abroad' whereby Moscow influences the politics of countries bordering Russia is very clearly dead. If things continue as they are for another few months and as Putin's influence wanes then Belarus is also likely to shake itself loose.

Vladimir Vladimirovich - result!

There’s a guy on another forum I use who works in Kazakhstan (and has done for many years). He’s reporting a lot of “dissatisfaction” with Russia which is interesting. Add that to Putin’s list of achievements……
 

TheEdge

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There’s a guy on another forum I use who works in Kazakhstan (and has done for many years). He’s reporting a lot of “dissatisfaction” with Russia which is interesting. Add that to Putin’s list of achievements……

It's not really been reported much but I'd love to know how the feelings are in the various -stans that make up the east of whatever vague definition of "Near Abroad" Russia uses. Or perhaps being totally outside the spheres of NATO and the EU makes them less interesting to him.
 

daodao

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The best thing that could happen now is an immediate ceasefire, with the ceasefire lines (with minor adjustments) becoming the permanent Ukraine-Russia frontier, and lifting of all sanctions and trade barriers. Further loss of life and economic disruption would worsen the tragedy.
 

najaB

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The best thing that could happen now is an immediate ceasefire, with the ceasefire lines (with minor adjustments) becoming the permanent Ukraine-Russia frontier, and lifting of all sanctions and trade barriers. Further loss of life and economic disruption would worsen the tragedy.
Best for who?
 

Cloud Strife

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The best thing that could happen now is an immediate ceasefire, with the ceasefire lines (with minor adjustments) becoming the permanent Ukraine-Russia frontier, and lifting of all sanctions and trade barriers. Further loss of life and economic disruption would worsen the tragedy.

Why would Ukraine agree to that when they're about to take delivery of some seriously lethal equipment? If Russians don't want to be torn to shreds, now is the time for them to leave.
 

coppercapped

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The best thing that could happen now is an immediate ceasefire, with the ceasefire lines (with minor adjustments) becoming the permanent Ukraine-Russia frontier, and lifting of all sanctions and trade barriers. Further loss of life and economic disruption would worsen the tragedy.
I know that you will probably find this irrelevant but for those of us who trust in the rule of law implemented through a judiciary free as far as possible of political influence you'll have to explain your working, especially how your suggestion can be aligned with Article 2, paragraph 4 of the United Nations Charter in which it is written:
All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.
 

AlterEgo

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The best thing that could happen now is an immediate ceasefire, with the ceasefire lines (with minor adjustments) becoming the permanent Ukraine-Russia frontier, and lifting of all sanctions and trade barriers. Further loss of life and economic disruption would worsen the tragedy.
Russia cannot be allowed to conquer other territory by force.
 

Roast Veg

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There’s a guy on another forum I use who works in Kazakhstan (and has done for many years). He’s reporting a lot of “dissatisfaction” with Russia which is interesting. Add that to Putin’s list of achievements……
In the very first days of the war, I noted the negative response from Kazakhstan in particular was remarkable, even voting for one of the UN resolutions against Russia. There may have been some difficult CSTO meetings.
 

kylemore

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Why would Ukraine agree to that when they're about to take delivery of some seriously lethal equipment? If Russians don't want to be torn to shreds, now is the time for them to leave.
Four launchers.

FOUR!

Oh and with all sorts of restrictions on their use.

Not only that, the way the Russians are targeting newly arriving weaponry they'll be lucky to make it out of the packing cases!
 

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