I agree with this analysis. However I would go further as Putin's stated list of war (sorry, 'special military operation') aims were:
- Demilitarisation of Ukraine
- Denazification of Ukraine
- Protection of the Donbas
- Countering NATO expansion.
After 100 days the first has clearly not occurred, there are more troops - many of these being from the Russian Federation
- and equipment there now than at the start.
The second was always clearly a myth.
To the third bullet point it has become clear that he was right in his analysis and the Donbas does need protecting. Except that the people and the houses need protection from the Russian army. And to those posters here who think the Russian army will 'win' I would point out that this huge army is struggling to gain a conclusive victory on a 50km long front.
Impressive or what?
And the last point is Putin's biggest own goal of all. Seeing tanks and troops running over a neighbouring country's territory has persuaded the Finns and the Swedes to apply to join the NATO alliance. In the case of Sweden this reverses a 200 year old policy of neutrality. The Swedes bring a potent air force and the Finns a large number of well equipped ground troops which can be quickly mobilised. He has achieved a result entirely opposite to that which he proclaimed he sought.
The Russian concept of a 'near abroad' whereby Moscow influences the politics of countries bordering Russia is very clearly dead. If things continue as they are for another few months and as Putin's influence wanes then Belarus is also likely to shake itself loose.
Vladimir Vladimirovich - result!