Russia invades Ukraine

[Bletchleyite]

I'm going to say it again. Stop reading the tabloids!

To be fair, this potential "plan" was reported in more than just the Scum.

 

[adc82140]

To be fair, this potential "plan" was reported in more than just the Scum.

Yes, Sky News are carrying it. The same Sky News who have a yellow headline stating that a man standing behind Putin in a photo is carrying a briefcase, which may be the nuclear briefcase. Not mentioning of course that this is normal, and in any photo of Joe Biden you are likely to see the same.

They may attempt to blow the hydro electric plant up. But the result won't be the same as for example blowing up. The Aswan High Dam in Egypt.

Don't take Zelensky's hyperbole too seriously. That's not a criticism of him. He has to counter propaganda with propaganda.

 

[Annetts key]

The dam that is being talked about provides the majority of fresh water to Crimea, so why would Russia blow it up?

If the dam was blown up, the resulting flooding would affect the low lying land on both sides of the river, including the side where Russia will continue to hold and control and where it is relocating the people it is ‘evacuating’… So, again, why would Russia blow the dam up?

It’s classic Russia scare tactics.

 

[ainsworth74]

The dam that is being talked about provides the majority of fresh water to Crimea, so why would Russia blow it up?

To be honest at this point with them I wouldn't rule out an approach of "if we can't have it, no-one can". Common sense and strategic thinking appear to have very little place in the way they're conducting this war. I tend to agree it's probably just a scare tactic but with that mob who knows for sure?

 

[Bletchleyite]

The dam that is being talked about provides the majority of fresh water to Crimea, so why would Russia blow it up?

Because it'd be a false flag attack blamed on Ukraine as "threatening the existence of part of Russia*" and thus justifying escalation. Russia is good at these, so publicising that they've been caught plotting one is of massive value in the propaganda part of the war.

* Obviously we don't consider Kherson part of Russia, but he does.

 

[adc82140]

The canal only reopened in March after being mothballed since 2014. Crimea can cope without it.

 

[najaB]

I'm going to say it again. Stop reading the tabloids!

As others have said, it's not just the tabloids that are reporting it.

Russia is likely continuing to prepare for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on October 20 that Russian forces mined the dam of the Kakhovka HPP and noted that the HPP holds over 18 million cubic meters of water, which would cause massive and rapid flooding of settlements along the Dnipro River, including Kherson City.[1] Zelensky emphasized that the flooding would impact hundreds of thousands of people.[2] Russian sources, however, continued to accuse Ukrainian forces of shelling the Kakhovka HPP and have widely circulated graphics depicting the flood path in the event of a dam breach.[3] As ISW reported on October 19, Russian sources are likely setting information conditions for Russian forces to blow the dam after they withdraw from western Kherson Oblast and accuse Ukrainian forces of flooding the Dnipro River and surrounding settlements, partially in an attempt to cover their retreat further into eastern Kherson Oblast.[4] Continued Russian preparation for a false-flag attack on the Kakhovka HPP is also likely meant to distract from reports of Russian losses in Kherson Oblast.

Source: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-20

 

[adc82140]

As others have said, it's not just the tabloids that are reporting it.


Source: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-20

Which is far more level headed than the way elements of the media are reporting it.

 

[DustyBin]

Yes, Sky News are carrying it. The same Sky News who have a yellow headline stating that a man standing behind Putin in a photo is carrying a briefcase, which may be the nuclear briefcase. Not mentioning of course that this is normal, and in any photo of Joe Biden you are likely to see the same.

They may attempt to blow the hydro electric plant up. But the result won't be the same as for example blowing up. The Aswan High Dam in Egypt.

Don't take Zelensky's hyperbole too seriously. That's not a criticism of him. He has to counter propaganda with propaganda.

Sky News have just had a guest on providing some analysis of the incident involving the RAF RC-135W. They were in no doubt that the Russian Su-27 attempted to shoot it down, and we're lucky this didn't lead to a major escalation. Now, whilst the guest is a former pilot himself, and I don't entirely believe the official account, it's typical Sky News to go straight for the most extreme possibility. I also find it hard to believe that the Typhoon escorts are a new thing, as was also claimed.

 

[najaB]

I also find it hard to believe that the Typhoon escorts are a new thing, as was also claimed.

The RC-135s generally do go out without a fighter escort - specifically to avoid them being seen as provocative or escalatory. Not to mention that the time on station of a RC-135 (10 hours plus?) significantly exceeds that of a Typhoon.

 

[DustyBin]

The RC-135s generally do go out without a fighter escort - specifically to avoid them being seen as provocative or escalatory. Not to mention that the time on station of a RC-135 (10 hours plus?) significantly exceeds that of a Typhoon.

Fair enough I'll take your word for it; I thought there may have been a fighter or two somewhere in the vicinity "just in case". Would the Typhoons not just be relieved after so long by another pair?

 

[ainsworth74]

Fair enough I'll take your word for it; I thought there may have been a fighter or two somewhere in the vicinity "just in case". Would the Typhoons not just be relieved after so long by another pair?

Our sniffer missions usually go without escort as do theirs. There's not typically any need for it and it just risks escalation both sides having armed fighters in the same area. At least this way everyone can be certain that the aircraft that is doing the sniffing cannot act in an offensive manner. As for relieving the Typhoons on station it can of course be done but it adds significantly the resource load on a fleet which is, after decades of defence cuts, quite small. There's only around 100 in service (originally we were going to buy 232 and we're probably going to end up buying 160 some of which have been taken or will be taken out of service) and, of course, not all of them are actually available at the same time. Some will be in maintenance, some are being used for training, some won't have pilots (because they're on leave, training, etc) and some will have other taskings. Four are permanently in the Falklands, some will be tasked to Quick Reaction Alert duty in the UK, some are deployed on Operation Shader out of RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, another group appear to be touring through southern NATO states (I suspect its these that provided the escort over the Black Sea recently) etc etc. Escorting the RC-135 patrols constantly absent a credible threat adds another burden onto an already busy force and either means working them and their personnel even harder or not doing something else.

Reality is that the RAF should have more fighter aircraft but we've had three decades of defence cuts so we are where we are...

 

[DustyBin]

Our sniffer missions usually go without escort as do theirs. There's not typically any need for it and it just risks escalation both sides having armed fighters in the same area. At least this way everyone can be certain that the aircraft that is doing the sniffing cannot act in an offensive manner. As for relieving the Typhoons on station it can of course be done but it adds significantly the resource load on a fleet which is, after decades of defence cuts, quite small. There's only around 100 in service (originally we were going to buy 232 and we're probably going to end up buying 160 some of which have been taken or will be taken out of service) and, of course, not all of them are actually available at the same time. Some will be in maintenance, some are being used for training, some won't have pilots (because they're on leave, training, etc) and some will have other taskings. Four are permanently in the Falklands, some will be tasked to Quick Reaction Alert duty in the UK, some are deployed on Operation Shader out of RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, another group appear to be touring through southern NATO states (I suspect its these that provided the escort over the Black Sea recently) etc etc. Escorting the RC-135 patrols constantly absent a credible threat adds another burden onto an already busy force and either means working them and their personnel even harder or not doing something else.

Reality is that the RAF should have more fighter aircraft but we've had three decades of defence cuts so we are where we are...

Interesting and informative, thanks!

 

[Ivor]

Someone needs to hurry up and take out this sick mad evil b*****d.

Totally agree, way overdue.

I'm going to say it again. Stop reading the tabloids!

Can’t disagree but @Class 33 made a valid point in his last sentence.

 

[Trackman]

I was in a ops meeting today, usually 20 mins of drivel, but then 60+ mins on Ukraine.
It was really depressing so just kept nodding and acknowledged questions.
It's with the new kids on the block who didn't go through the cold war, there are petrified of a Russian war with the West (which is real, but unlikley).
I thought I would speak up, but someone did before me who had enough.
We had questions like 'What happens if we all die?' etc..

These are professionals in their field.
The mind boggles.

 

[najaB]

Reality is that the RAF should have more fighter aircraft but we've had three decades of defence cuts so we are where we are...

To be fair, it's another case of us shaping our armed forces to the war we expected to be fighting, rather than the ones we seem to be ending up with.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

The canal only reopened in March after being mothballed since 2014. Crimea can cope without it.

It can cope after a fashion, certainly. But that means resorting to regular bouts of water rationing especially in Crimea's one big city, Sevastopol. Not the best way to be running the base of the Black Sea fleet. Given that having absolute control of said base, rather than leasing it as happened from the collapse of the Soviet Union until 2014, is the main strategic object of the whole war for the Russians it's nonsense to think that Russia gains anything from destroying the Nova Kakhovka dam. As such the "plot" being reported is, as others have suggested, just a scare tactic by the Russians. Unless they are about to give up on Crimea and resort to a WW2 style scorched earth retreat.

 

[Yew]

To be fair, it's another case of us shaping our armed forces to the war we expected to be fighting, rather than the ones we seem to be ending up with.

Indeed, over the last few years there has been some sort of thought that we've reached the end of history, that there will be no more peer conflicts, and that we will only fight wars of choice.

 

[Annetts key]

To be fair, it's another case of us shaping our armed forces to the war we expected to be fighting, rather than the ones we seem to be ending up with.

A political decision and the incorrect decision. And it has been and always will be an incorrect decision. Because the potential enemy may not be the enemy you have to fight and the war you think you will get may not be the type of war that you have to fight.

Yes, every government department wants more money (or no cuts to the amount they get). But just like other important and essential services, the minimum service level needs to be realistic (able to carry out the requirements) and be funded so it can meet these requirements.

Not wound down as the amount of money is kept the same or even worse reduced.

 

[DustyBin]

Indeed, over the last few years there has been some sort of thought that we've reached the end of history, that there will be no more peer conflicts, and that we will only fight wars of choice.

Yes, the war on terror was the war we’d be fighting, apparently. The threat of Russian tanks rolling across Eastern Europe no longer existed (was it Boris who said that at one point?). I’ll admit that I didn’t anticipate Russia going mental like it has, but I’ve always thought we were being at best rather complacent.

 

[Annetts key]

Wars we did not expect to fight…

The article on Wikipedia lists rather a lot of wars or conflicts we have been involved with. For wars from 1922 to present day, that list is here.

For relatively recent (as in the lifetime of most members on this forum), it includes:

• The Falklands War (1982). We certainly never expected a war in that area.
  
• The Gulf War (1990-1991) where Iraq invaded Kuwait. Again, that was not expected.
  
• The Bosnian War (1992-1995)
  
• The speed at which the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan as the Western forces withdrew.

And now Russian aggression. I think the recent political events in the U.K. shows that unfortunately some politicians don’t learn from past history, so are liable to repeat some of the mistakes of the past.

With the military, that’s thinking you know what is the likely war you may fight in the future and only preparing for that type of war. And only providing funding for fighting that type of war. Similar mistakes have been made countless times by various countries/governments/leaders…

 

[brad465]

Russia do seem to be engaging in some odd form of target practice, this is the second such reported crash into residential areas in recent weeks:

Russian fighter plane crashes in Siberian city of Irkutsk

The Sukhoi Su-30 military plane was on a test flight when it came down in Irkutsk, authorities say.

www.bbc.co.uk

A Russian military plane has crashed into a residential area in southern Siberia, local authorities have said.
The Sukhoi Su-30 fighter aircraft landed on a two-storey house in the city of Irkutsk, regional governor Igor Kobzev posted on Telegram.
The governor said he was at the scene and both pilots had been killed, but no residents were hurt.
According to the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations, the jet was on a test flight when it came down.
Footage on social media showed the plane diving almost vertically before crashing in a fireball, sending thick black smoke into the sky.
Another video depicted firefighters putting out the blaze.
Russia's state Investigative Committee said it had opened a criminal investigation into violations of air safety rules.
It was the second incident of its kind in six days.
Last Monday, a Sukhoi Su-34 military jet crashed into an apartment block in the southern city of Yeysk, near Ukraine, killing at least 15 people.

 

[Roast Veg]

"Violations of air safety rules"? That's clearly a coded message for western intelligence, but what could it mean?

Are they suggesting that there's been some sort of interference? Something that could knock out a jet without encroaching on Russian territory?

 

[hst43102]

"Violations of air safety rules"? That's clearly a coded message for western intelligence, but what could it mean?

Are they suggesting that there's been some sort of interference? Something that could knock out a jet without encroaching on Russian territory?

Did MH17 violate these air safety rules?

 

[DustyBin]

Russia do seem to be engaging in some odd form of target practice, this is the second such reported crash into residential areas in recent weeks:

Russian fighter plane crashes in Siberian city of Irkutsk

The Sukhoi Su-30 military plane was on a test flight when it came down in Irkutsk, authorities say.

www.bbc.co.uk

Perhaps they’re preparing Plan B, for when they run out of kamikaze drones……

 

[Gloster]

"Violations of air safety rules"? That's clearly a coded message for western intelligence, but what could it mean?

Are they suggesting that there's been some sort of interference? Something that could knock out a jet without encroaching on Russian territory?

Alternatively they are going to claim that the pilot was playing silly b*****s, something not unknown in the profession. Pilot error is less embarrassing than admitting the aircraft are NBG, if that is why it crashed.

 

[Annetts key]

Perhaps they’re preparing Plan B, for when they run out of kamikaze drones……

I thought they had already worked their way through the alphabet, having ditched plan V and were now on plan Z…

 

[brad465]

Someone ought to get Putin a mirror:

World faces most dangerous decade since WW2 - Putin

Russia's president says the West is unable to stay in charge, but is "desperately trying" to cling on.

www.bbc.co.uk

The world faces "probably the most dangerous" decade since the end of World War Two, Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned.
In a wide-ranging speech on Thursday, he sought to justify Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a move that has left his country internationally isolated.
Mr Putin also accused the West of nuclear blackmail against Russia to force allies to turn away from Moscow.
The West has denounced recent veiled nuclear threats by the Kremlin.
Earlier this week, the Nato military alliance condemned unsubstantiated claims by Russia that Ukraine might use a "dirty bomb" - conventional explosives laced with radioactive material.
Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said alliance members "reject this allegation" and "Russia must not use it as a pretext for escalation".
President Putin was speaking to the annual Valdai forum after a series of recent military defeats in Ukraine and growing public anger at home over a drive to mobilise some 300,000 Russians for the war effort.
The day before his address in Moscow, he had overseen routine nuclear exercises that involved a supposed nuclear strike in retaliation for an enemy's massive nuclear attack. "We've never proactively said anything about Russia's possible use of nuclear weapons. We've only responded with hints to comments voiced by the leaders of Western countries," he told his audience.
President Putin singled out former UK prime minister Liz Truss for suggesting during an August campaign event that she would be ready to press the nuclear button if circumstances required her to do so. He said he was surprised the UK's allies did not object: "What were we supposed to do? Keep silent? Pretend that we didn't hear it?"
However, he has himself repeatedly warned that Russia would use "all available means" to protect itself, in what has been widely seen as a clear nuclear threat.

 

[DustyBin]

Someone ought to get Putin a mirror:

World faces most dangerous decade since WW2 - Putin

Russia's president says the West is unable to stay in charge, but is "desperately trying" to cling on.

www.bbc.co.uk

It’s unbelievable isn’t it. I view pretty much everything Putin and his cronies say as nothing more than propaganda for domestic consumption.

I noticed a particularly heavy NATO/Western military aircraft presence over Eastern Europe on Flightradar24 earlier today. There appeared to be some serious intelligence gathering going on with an RC-135W, E-8C, a pair of E-3As and what think was an ARTEMIS, among others, all up at once. That’s just what was visible. I presume they want the Russians to know they’re watching.

 

[Bald Rick]

It’s unbelievable isn’t it. I view pretty much everything Putin and his cronies say as nothing more than propaganda for domestic consumption.

I noticed a particularly heavy NATO/Western military aircraft presence over Eastern Europe on Flightradar24 earlier today. There appeared to be some serious intelligence gathering going on with an RC-135W, E-8C, a pair of E-3As and what think was an ARTEMIS, among others, all up at once. That’s just what was visible. I presume they want the Russians to know they’re watching.

There‘s a major NATO exercise underway, “Steadfast Noon”, until Sunday. It’s a test of nuclear deterrence capability.