Russia invades Ukraine

[birchesgreen]

I note that matters had not escalated when Trump made his latest "If I was the President" outburst. I wonder how his next media prediction will sound"?

Trump thinks Putin is a genius, which is an interesting take

Trump praises ‘genius’ Putin for moving troops to eastern Ukraine

Former president says Russian leader made ‘very savvy’ decision to recognise two territories of eastern Ukraine as independent

www.theguardian.com

Donald Trump has said that Vladimir Putin is “very savvy” and made a “genius” move by declaring two regions of eastern Ukraine as independent states and moving Russian armed forces to them.

Trump said he saw the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis on TV “and I said: ‘This is genius.’ Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine … Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful.”

The former US president said that the Russian president had made a “smart move” by sending “the strongest peace force I’ve ever seen” to the area.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Trump thinks Putin is a genius, which is an interesting take

Trump praises ‘genius’ Putin for moving troops to eastern Ukraine

Former president says Russian leader made ‘very savvy’ decision to recognise two territories of eastern Ukraine as independent

www.theguardian.com

Do the republicans lap this up?

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

I’m absolutely not an appeaser, however what can the West do at this point that wouldn’t simply escalate the situation?

The West has missed the opportunity to defend Ukraine; one would hope that they are going to rationally build up defensive support to prevent any further Russian expansion further to the West. If I was Polish, given the long history of invasions by Russia, I would not be cheerfully considering a direct border with them right now.

 

[yorksrob]

I think the targeted sanctions are missing the point somewhat as Putin regularly receives electoral support from the Russian population.

I think that what is needed is a return to 1970's/80's levels of controls on travel to the west from Russia and doing business with them more generally. The Russian middle class as well as the oligarchs need to understand that Putins actions have narrowed their personal horizons considerably.

 

[AlterEgo]

Everyone’s find out today that European militaries have been stripped bare. The Germans have admitted it and so will we eventually. Decadent.

We have no reasonable prospect of even deterring Putin.

 

[adc82140]

The West has missed the opportunity to defend Ukraine; one would hope that they are going to rationally build up defensive support to prevent any further Russian expansion further to the West. If I was Polish, given the long history of invasions by Russia, I would not be cheerfully considering a direct border with them right now.

Poland is in NATO though. Ukraine isn't, so was considered by Putin as low hanging fruit. Same for Georgia.

 

[Iskra]

I think there's an element of truth in comments that Putin has somewhat lost a grip of reality. Sky News were speculating that two years of near isolation of a Covid-paranoid Putin had taken its toll on his decision making abilities, and he has become Ukraine obsessed.

I’d say it’s a great domestic political distraction. Struggling dictators always love a war.

 

[DustyBin]

Trump thinks Putin is a genius, which is an interesting take

Trump praises ‘genius’ Putin for moving troops to eastern Ukraine

Former president says Russian leader made ‘very savvy’ decision to recognise two territories of eastern Ukraine as independent

www.theguardian.com

It’s typical Trump really; say something that is essentially true but in completely the wrong way. See his comments about the WHO, or the way he threw his toys out of the pram over NATO spending for further examples. He had a point in regard to both but came across as crass (I’m being polite there!). That’s just my view of course……

Back on topic, it’s possible that Trump actually understands Putin. I watched a documentary a few years back about Putin and there were some interesting snippets regarding his relationship with various Western leaders past and present. Seemingly the only one he had any kind of respect for, and mutual understanding with, was Bush Jr. I think it’s entirely possible Trump may have been the second.

 

[Iskra]

I think the targeted sanctions are missing the point somewhat as Putin regularly receives electoral support from the Russian population.

I think that what is needed is a return to 1970's/80's levels of controls on travel to the west from Russia and doing business with them more generally. The Russian middle class as well as the oligarchs need to understand that Putins actions have narrowed their personal horizons considerably.

Yeah because Russian elections are definitely free and fair… Electoral support means nothing there!

Yeah, make them holiday in the Crimea again, that will teach them!

Some seriously devastating economic action is required here.

- - -

I am shocked that he has actually done this by the way.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

Poland is in NATO though. Ukraine isn't, so was considered by Putin as low hanging fruit. Same for Georgia.

I imagine that is why Putin has stated that he doesn't intend to occupy Ukraine. A land border between Russia and NATO in an increasingly frightened Europe really isn't a good idea, for either side.

 

[DustyBin]

Everyone’s find out today that European militaries have been stripped bare. The Germans have admitted it and so will we eventually. Decadent.

We have no reasonable prospect of even deterring Putin.

Correct and I’ve been saying for years how naive we are. We convinced ourselves that large scale conventional conflicts were a thing of the past and that we didn’t need the personnel or equipment to fight one. Whilst we’re not involved in the Ukraine conflict it demonstrates how wrong we (or should I say the “experts” and politicians) were.

 

[Yew]

Everyone’s find out today that European militaries have been stripped bare. The Germans have admitted it and so will we eventually. Decadent.

We have no reasonable prospect of even deterring Putin.

NATO still has the largest military spending in the world, and a surprising amount of Russias Military assets are best described as Soviet Antiques.

 

[DustyBin]

I imagine that is why Putin has stated that he doesn't intend to occupy Ukraine. A land border between Russia and NATO in an increasingly frightened Europe really isn't a good idea, for either side.

I expect he’ll oversee the “election” of a pro-Russian government and its job done……

 

[Iskra]

I imagine that is why Putin has stated that he doesn't intend to occupy Ukraine. A land border between Russia and NATO in an increasingly frightened Europe really isn't a good idea, for either side.

He just wants a puppet government instead, like Belarus. But Ukraine made its choice, and it chose the West instead of Russia. If the West does nothing about this, it would be a serious let down for the people of Ukraine and sends a poor message to other countries which border Russia.

 

[yorksrob]

Yeah because Russian elections are definitely free and fair… Electoral support means nothing there!

Yeah, make them holiday in the Crimea again, that will teach them!

Some seriously devastating economic action is required here.

- - -

I am shocked that he has actually done this by the way.

Russians are aspirational people as well. If you want a cold war, have cold war holidays, and let's face it dodgy elections or not, Putin isn't without support at home.

I'm not saying that this is the only thing we should be doing, but trying to pick of oligarchs one but one isn't going to work against a larger basis of support.

Realistically though there's a limit to how devastating sanctions can be if Communist China bails them out.

 

[TheEdge]

NATO still has the largest military spending in the world, and a surprising amount of Russias Military assets are best described as Soviet Antiques.

This is worth pointing out. Russia vs Ukraine equipment is modernised Soviet kit vs a smaller amount of modernised Soviet kit. They've got some bits of very good kit (T-14 for example) but not in anything like in the numbers that NATO can roll out equivalent or better kit.

 

[DustyBin]

NATO still has the largest military spending in the world, and a surprising amount of Russias Military assets are best described as Soviet Antiques.

This is true; the UK alone matches Russian military spending or at least did until very recently. We invest in high-tech rather than volume though; not necessarily a bad thing but on paper our forces look small. Other countries in Europe probably are stripped bare militarily though and certainly couldn’t act alone, not beyond their own doorsteps anyway.

 

[Iskra]

NATO still has the largest military spending in the world, and a surprising amount of Russias Military assets are best described as Soviet Antiques.

This is true. The OP referenced Germany, which has been criticised for its low military spending for years, as I believe there is a NATO target of 2%. Germany was one of the lowest in Europe for years, so it should be no surprise they aren’t equipped for a major conflict, but their situation is not necessarily representative of all NATI nations. Poland and Turkey spend a lot I believe. The UK took the 2% target seriously too.

 

[AlterEgo]

NATO still has the largest military spending in the world, and a surprising amount of Russias Military assets are best described as Soviet Antiques.

That will be reassuring to Ukrainians. The problem is our own military is completely incapable of acting unilaterally despite us spending nearly as much as Russia on it, thanks to the actual shrinking of the size of HM Forces. We have a small, agile, expensively assembled professional force absolutely unsuited to the actual security problem on the continent we live on.

“Graph goes up look at the money” isn’t how militaries extend influence.

 

[Yew]

That will be reassuring to Ukrainians. The problem is our own military is completely incapable of acting unilaterally despite us spending nearly as much as Russia on it, thanks to the actual shrinking of the size of HM Forces. We have a small, agile, expensively assembled professional force absolutely unsuited to the actual security problem on the continent we live on.

“Graph goes up look at the money” isn’t how militaries extend influence.

Why would be we acting alone?

 

[AlterEgo]

Why would be we acting alone?

I'm only using the point to illustrate that spending alone is not a reliable indicator of the size or ability of a military force to project itself.

More to the point, why would we think any world-scale pitted war against Russia would involve Russia acting alone?

 

[DustyBin]

Why would be we acting alone?

Well that’s the assumption; we wouldn’t. Unless it was a re-run of the Falklands maybe.

 

[duncanp]

Didn't Napoleon Macron agree with Putin last Sunday to "..work for a ceaefire in Eastern Ukraine..."

As it happened: Macron pushes for diplomacy, US warns Russian invasion of Ukraine imminent

French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Sunday agreed to work for a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, Macron's office said. The two leaders also agreed on "the need to favour…

www.france24.com

French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Sunday agreed to work for a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, Macron's office said. The two leaders also agreed on "the need to favour a diplomatic solution to the ongoing crisis and to do everything to achieve one", the Élysée said, adding that French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov would meet "in the coming days". Read about the day's events as they unfolded on our page below.

Well that went well didn't it? (NOT)

 

[tommy2215]

Why do people think it is all about who has the best army? Cyber warfare would be absolutely massive in a war with Russia, and no doubt China would assist Putin. And they'd likely cease or significantly reduce exports to NATO countries. And of course there's nuclear weapons. All of our lives would be massively affected by war with Russia and China

 

[Falcon1200]

let's face it dodgy elections or not, Putin isn't without support at home.

But how much of that 'support' is due to ignorance created by a State-controlled media ?

I’m absolutely not an appeaser, however what can the West do at this point that wouldn’t simply escalate the situation?

Definitely not get involved in direct military action, but we should take other measures as well as the (to me) obscure financial sanctions, eg: Ban any Russian airline from EU and Nato countries, ban all Russian sports teams and persons from international competitions (although I doubt we can have much hope of Fifa or Uefa voluntarily taking such action, given past performance), impound all Russian aircraft and shipping currently on EU or Nato soil (but allow their staff and citizens to leave, if they can). No measure, short of actually fighting in the invasion, should be off-limits.

 

[Iskra]

That will be reassuring to Ukrainians. The problem is our own military is completely incapable of acting unilaterally despite us spending nearly as much as Russia on it, thanks to the actual shrinking of the size of HM Forces. We have a small, agile, expensively assembled professional force absolutely unsuited to the actual security problem on the continent we live on.

“Graph goes up look at the money” isn’t how militaries extend influence.

We spend a lot of the Navy and Air force. The army has rarely been big throughout British history, and its purpose in a major war is to hold the line with our allies while we train up a large conscript army to fight with in the long term. That’s an entirely reasonable strategy for a democratic island nation and it has worked well before.

 

[yorksrob]

Why do people think it is all about who has the best army? Cyber warfare would be absolutely massive in a war with Russia, and no doubt China would assist Putin. And they'd likely cease or significantly reduce exports to NATO countries. And of course there's nuclear weapons. All of our lives would be massively affected by war with Russia and China

A good point. Most of the cyber attacks recently have come from the authoritarian regimes. Perhaps the West has large capabilities in this area but has been keeping its powder dry.

 

[BananaRepublic]

While it’s true, Russia’s military was a crumbling, antiquated mess following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has spent the last decade modernising and improving its military capabilities.
They are still well short in some key areas, but they’ve restored the might of their land forces.
In the meantime, NATO forces have been dramatically reduced in size and capability.
Even the US military is a fraction of the size it was in the 1970’s and 1980’s.
We have literally got very little bang for our buck, from our vast spending on defence.

NATO, Europe and the US have no means of preventing Putin from taking the whole of Ukraine if that’s his intention.
All the arm waving at the UN and by the EU will be ignored, unless he’s toppled from within.

 

[Falcon1200]

NATO, Europe and the US have no means of preventing Putin from taking the whole of Ukraine if that’s his intention.

NATO taking direct military action in Ukraine would be the start of WW3.

 

[DarloRich]

Sadly, the consequences of the neo-fascist coup in Kiev exactly 8 years ago are coming home to roost. Russia has had enough of what it perceives as an insolent regime under the direction of Brussels and Washington, and now seems to have decided to use all available means to bring it to heel. The Ukraine is waking up to smell the coffee.

This is nonsense. Russia has invaded an independent, sovereign nation. It is not for them to decide on foreign policy of other nations. It is clear from your posts that at best you see Ukraine as a semi autonomous principality of Russia ( with foreign policy dictated by the Kremlin) and at worst a subsumed ( by force if necessary) part of Russia. It is also illustrative that you casually dismiss the self determination of the Ukrainians and consider thier nation to be an object that the Kremlin may deal with as it wishes

It seems you will get your way. Personally I might use this as an opportunity to step back and look and my world view and ask why I was supporting an imperial, oppressive and autocratic regime bombing and marching into an independent country.

And how might that be done, short of WW3?

by cutting off thier access, at all levels, to western countries and thier cultural, financial, political and social institutions.

And it's Ukraine, not The Ukraine, as you've been told so many times.

The use of "the" Ukraine is indicative. People who do that don't see Ukraine as an independent nation. As I say above those who do this at best see Ukraine as a semi autonomous principality of Russia ( with foreign policy dictated by the Kremlin) and at worst a subsumed ( by force if necessary) part of Russia