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Russia invades Ukraine
- Thread starter kristiang85
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GWRtom
Member
Apparently this has just been denied on Prigozhin's official telegram channel
Picked up by Sky News though just now.
Perhaps, taking a leaf out of Tom Clancy’s “The Bear and the Dragon” - as Russia has been invaded it could be offered NATO membership to protect it against aggressive, err, Russian forces. Now that would be popcorn time.
Perhaps, taking a leaf out of Tom Clancy’s “The Bear and the Dragon” - as Russia has been invaded it could be offered NATO membership to protect it against aggressive, err, Russian forces. Now that would be popcorn time.
Not so bizarre, as I'm sure I read that the Soviet Union once requested Nato membership (perhaps to call our bluff !)
Do you have a link,
all the russian channels are alive with what I copied.
its also catching up in western media.
Looks like Robin Prigozhin indeed made a deal with the Sheriff of Moscow.
Merrymen are to put their bows and arrows away, for today.
Lets see what tomorrow brings, it could be a bluff to allow moscow time to up arm itself, but Prigozhin seems to be trying to play this out as some kind of union pay dispute. (the FSB raided his gaff in St Petersburg and found 4bn roubles in cash today apparently)… knowing Russia I wouldnt be surprised if it was 6bn, but 2bn went out of the back door before the cameras went in the front.
I dont subscribe to this honour amongst thieves stuff… Putin makes a deal today it may be forgotten tomorrow.
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Iskra
Established Member
This has massive implications for Ukraine. With mercenaries providing a large element of the war effort there, there may now be holes in the line or those forces may now be viewed with suspicion and no longer trusted to operate on the frontlines.
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
Trying to reason out what I can about this...
Prigozhin is denying that this is a coup attempt. I don't believe his denials: Anything short of him/his supporters basically taking over the Government is likely to leave him either dead or in prison for life, and I can't believe he wouldn't know that. From what we know, it makes no sense for him to have done what he's done unless he seriously believes he can either topple Putin, or at least end up in full control of Russia's military forces (which would leave Putin as his puppet anyway). That seems to suggest that he has supporters high in the military hierarchy in Moscow.
The fact that he's got as far as he has done also suggests he has support within the Government. It's about 150 miles from where Wagner were a month ago fighting in Bakhmut to Rostov-on-Don. I'm pretty sure you can't move enough troops and armour to take over a city with military bases and a population of a million 150 miles without it having been obvious for some time that something strange is up. And it's even further from Bakhmut to Voronezh. Yet Prigozhin has somehow managed to do that largely unchallenged. (Except that maybe those movements might go some way to explaining the previous reports of fighting between Wagner and the regular forces).
Prigozhin clearly has a lot of loyalty amongst his forces. Telling the troops under your command to rebel against your own Government isn't a trivial thing to do - especially when many of your troops have probably spent most of their lives absorbing Russian Government propaganda. But again, he's clearly persuaded large numbers of troops to do that, without any obvious problem of defections.
None of that bodes well for Putin.
Prigozhin is denying that this is a coup attempt. I don't believe his denials: Anything short of him/his supporters basically taking over the Government is likely to leave him either dead or in prison for life, and I can't believe he wouldn't know that. From what we know, it makes no sense for him to have done what he's done unless he seriously believes he can either topple Putin, or at least end up in full control of Russia's military forces (which would leave Putin as his puppet anyway). That seems to suggest that he has supporters high in the military hierarchy in Moscow.
The fact that he's got as far as he has done also suggests he has support within the Government. It's about 150 miles from where Wagner were a month ago fighting in Bakhmut to Rostov-on-Don. I'm pretty sure you can't move enough troops and armour to take over a city with military bases and a population of a million 150 miles without it having been obvious for some time that something strange is up. And it's even further from Bakhmut to Voronezh. Yet Prigozhin has somehow managed to do that largely unchallenged. (Except that maybe those movements might go some way to explaining the previous reports of fighting between Wagner and the regular forces).
Prigozhin clearly has a lot of loyalty amongst his forces. Telling the troops under your command to rebel against your own Government isn't a trivial thing to do - especially when many of your troops have probably spent most of their lives absorbing Russian Government propaganda. But again, he's clearly persuaded large numbers of troops to do that, without any obvious problem of defections.
None of that bodes well for Putin.
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Or it could be kremlin free reign for Prigozhin to move into Ukraine on a new front or strategy ?
Prigozhin hasnt been advocating any peace with Ukraine today, indeed he’s quite the opposite.
His whole campaign against Shoigu has been around wanting more equipment, more action and less restraint.
That will be music to the ears of some in the kremlin.
You dont threaten the big boss and get away with it, unless you have a carrot to offer as well.
His reputation is now on the line, he must have doubled down on something.
if he doesnt deliver, he’s better off not making videos from roof tops, but if he does… this could get very ugly for Ukraine and hes on track as successor for the top job.
This is top table stakes now…
Lets see what tomorrow brings, and if Russia uses time to take him on, or if he’s pulled off a deal.
what he may have done is avoided a Wagnexit from Russia, and it may now consolidate all wavers and doubters in Russia behind Putin and a single objective. This may not be good, certainly comments online today were advocating discussions to resolve differences.
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birchesgreen
Established Member
I can't see how we could possibly return to the status quo after the events of the last few days to be honest, but we are living in bizarro world these days arn't we?
He only needs to make Prigozhin and Putin to kiss and make up for it to be a ball ache.
If so let's hope Lukashenko is put on trial for war crimes and given an "appropriate" penalty when this is all over. A vile, revolting brown-noser of murderers and dictators.
kristiang85
Established Member
- Joined
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- Messages
- 2,657
Something really doesn't smell right about all of this. But I have no idea what.
Going back to the original theory this was all a deliberate distraction by Russia, why actually destroy some of your equipment and an oil refinery?
Going back to the original theory this was all a deliberate distraction by Russia, why actually destroy some of your equipment and an oil refinery?
Collateral damage !
Wouldn't have thought so previously, but now Prigozhin has marched his troops half way to Moscow and is apparently prepared to march them back again, it wouldn't surprise me if this were some sort of theatre.
it certainly does seem odd.
chatter suggests Shoigu is going to take the blame for this.
How you round off losing 7 aircraft and crews, and to giving an amnesty for those marching to Moscow in a coup attempt takes some thinking.
As I said Wagners either got a very nasty trick up their sleeve to appease the kremlin, or this fight isnt over yet and Prigozhins going to get it.
Still trying to think whats in this for the “peacemaker”, that is Lukashenko ?
A thoroughly odd day in this war for sure.
Tomorrow I cant imagine being back to how things were on friday morning.
chatter suggests Shoigu is going to take the blame for this.
How you round off losing 7 aircraft and crews, and to giving an amnesty for those marching to Moscow in a coup attempt takes some thinking.
As I said Wagners either got a very nasty trick up their sleeve to appease the kremlin, or this fight isnt over yet and Prigozhins going to get it.
Still trying to think whats in this for the “peacemaker”, that is Lukashenko ?
A thoroughly odd day in this war for sure.
Tomorrow I cant imagine being back to how things were on friday morning.
To enable a considerable force of Wagner mercenaries to rapidly re-deploy to a position north of the Ukraine, from where they can launch an attack on Kviv?
I sincerely hope the American spies-in-the-sky are keeping a watching brief on this movement.
kristiang85
Established Member
- Joined
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- Messages
- 2,657
My mate thinks there's a link between Wagner wanting to use tactical nukes (but not being allowed to by russian military leadership) and Lukashenko receiving delivery of said nukes.
He's a very sensible and well read chap (my mate, not Lukashenko), but I hope to heavens he's wrong.
He's a very sensible and well read chap (my mate, not Lukashenko), but I hope to heavens he's wrong.
87electric
Member
- Joined
- 27 Jan 2010
- Messages
- 1,023
Do you realize what you are saying? Unbelievable.
Not at all. Just reminding all the factions that we're he're, we haven't gone away and any decision to go nuclear by the factions against the West will be met with a response.
Reported Prigozhin is indeed moving to Belarus.
but is it a one floor dacha, or a high rise block ?
do they have polonium210 there ?
it would seem today turned out to be a Wagner suicide mission, and they aborted.
Amnesty for the soldiers, this is probably the end of wagner.
but is it a one floor dacha, or a high rise block ?
do they have polonium210 there ?
it would seem today turned out to be a Wagner suicide mission, and they aborted.
Amnesty for the soldiers, this is probably the end of wagner.
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Iskra
Established Member
Yes, Belarus doesn’t seem the safest choice for a very public dissident.
THC
Member
DarloRich
Veteran Member
Surely this Wagner bloke has got to be off'd - you cant be Capo dei capi like Putin and let one of the smaller capo get uppity. This Prigozhin might be sleeping with the fishes shortly.