Russia invades Ukraine

[DustyBin]

Belarus has been quite lucky in all of this, and as always with those types of people have taken it with a sign of weakness. By allowing Ru**ians to invade from their land they have been involved since the beginning.

I fear (for Belarus) that it looks like Ru**ia is about to push this too far, and that it will become more involved than it wanted to be.

It’s possible that Wagner are there to prop up Lukashenko in the event that he drags Belarus into the war proper, which won’t go down well domestically (I suspect this is why he’s been reluctant to date).

 

[AM9]

Belarus has been quite lucky in all of this, and as always with those types of people have taken it with a sign of weakness. By allowing Ru**ians to invade from their land they have been involved since the beginning.

I fear (for Belarus) that it looks like Ru**ia is about to push this too far, and that it will become more involved than it wanted to be.

Why misspell 'Russia' and 'Russians'?

 

[brad465]

Quite the "smoking accident":

At least 30 die in inferno at petrol station in Dagestan southern Russia

Fire engulfs an area of 600 sq m (6,460 sq ft) in Makhachkala, in the southern region of Dagestan.

www.bbc.co.uk

At least 30 people have been killed in an explosion and fire at a petrol station in Dagestan in southern Russia.
The blast erupted in the regional capital, Makhachkala, on the coast of the Caspian Sea, at 21:40 local time (18:40 GMT) on Monday.
It is not yet clear what caused the accident, which injured more than 100 people, some of them seriously.
Pictures showed a large fire lighting up the night sky and a number of fire engines at the scene.
A state of emergency was introduced in the Kumtorkalinsky district in Dagestan, according to regional head Sergei Melikov.
Some 260 emergency workers have been deployed, while the most seriously injured have been evacuated to Moscow by air, the emergencies ministry said.
Russia's Interfax news agency quoted doctors as saying three children were among the dead.
It added that the fire had spread over an area of 600 sq m (6,460 sq ft) and that there was a danger of further explosions.
An unnamed witness quoted by Russian newspaper Izvestia said the fire had started on a car park opposite the petrol station.
"After the explosion, everything fell on our heads. We couldn't see anything any more," the witness said.
Russia's Investigative Committee said the fire had broken out during some car maintenance work and had been "followed by a bang".
A criminal case has been opened to establish the circumstances leading up to the incident, the Committee said.
The Republic of Dagestan is one of 83 constituent parts of the Russian Federation and is the southernmost part of the country. Makhachkala is about 1,600km (1,000 miles) from Moscow.

There was also news yesterday that the rouble has fallen to 100 roubles to the dollar, causing the Central Bank to call an emergency meeting.

 

[Simon11]

Quite a few interesting points of discussion here, particular on is there any risk of Putin getting removed at the next election in 7 months or will it be rigged?

Russia’s central bank to hold extraordinary meeting after rouble falls to 16-month low

Bank will discuss interest rate after high spending on war in Ukraine and drop in export revenues put further pressure on Russia’s economy

www.theguardian.com

In the short term, a weaker rouble could help the authorities to fund its extensive war spending. Russia sells its oil in foreign currency and the current exchange will buy more roubles at home. A government document reviewed by Reuters this month showed that Moscow had doubled its 2023 defence spending target to more than $100bn (£79bn), a third of all public expenditure.

But the sliding rouble could trigger memories in Moscow of the battering the currency took during the 1998 Russian financial crisis and has already led to rare public criticism of Russia’s central bank.

The influential TV host Vladimir Solovyov said last week: “The bloody central bank isn’t even explaining why the hell the rouble exchange rate has jumped so high that they’re laughing at us abroad, at our rouble being one of the three weakest currencies.

“What is happening in this country!? How did this exchange rate come about? Eventually, this will lead to a rise in consumer prices, and it will coincide with the election campaign,” Solovyov added, referring to the Russian presidential election scheduled for March 2024.

The Kremlin has boasted about Russia’s economic outlook while the central bank has predicted that the economy will grow by up to 2.5% this year, despite crippling western sanctions.

Despite the weakening rouble, Russia’s statistics agency, Rosstat, announced last week that the economy grew year on year by 4.9% in the second quarter of 2023, the first increase in 12 months.

Experts said much of the economic recovery was artificially driven by government spending on the war, raising the prospect of an economic slowdown if the conflict was halted.

 

[DustyBin]

Quite a few interesting points of discussion here, particular on is there any risk of Putin getting removed at the next election in 7 months or will it be rigged?

Russia’s central bank to hold extraordinary meeting after rouble falls to 16-month low

Bank will discuss interest rate after high spending on war in Ukraine and drop in export revenues put further pressure on Russia’s economy

www.theguardian.com

As you say, interesting!

I’m not holding my breath, but an election defeat would be a potential way out for Putin (so long as he could retire safely and prosperously of course).

The result will almost certainly be rigged regardless!

 

[takno]

As you say, interesting!

I’m not holding my breath, but an election defeat would be a potential way out for Putin (so long as he could retire safely and prosperously of course).

The result will almost certainly be rigged regardless!

Didn't they recently extend the cooked-up jail term of the leading opposition figure by a million years recently? The complete absence of free speech, free press and any opposition surely obviates the need to do anything risky like rig elections.

 

[ainsworth74]

The result will almost certainly be rigged regardless!

Quite! Russia probably hasn't had a proper Presidential election since perhaps 2008, maybe 2012 at a push. So whoever wins in 2024 will have done so via anti-democratic means. It is arguable that Russia has never had a free and fair Presidential election since the first in 1991 as even the earlier elections whilst they may not have suffered from rampant vote rigging there was still significant issues with resource bias i.e. the full might of the Russian state being thrown behind the incumbent giving them unequal airtime on media and so on. So whilst they may have been free elections without a predetermined result they certainly weren't fair elections.

Didn't they recently extend the cooked-up jail term of the leading opposition figure by a million years recently? The complete absence of free speech, free press and any opposition surely obviates the need to do anything risky like rig elections.

They'll still want the veneer of an election though which means that at least some level of rigging will be required. Though the overwhelming power of state and/or oligarch backed media means that they probably don't need to do too much ballot stuffing to be sure but this isn't the sort of thing that one leaves up to chance!

 

[DustyBin]

Didn't they recently extend the cooked-up jail term of the leading opposition figure by a million years recently? The complete absence of free speech, free press and any opposition surely obviates the need to do anything risky like rig elections.

Their elections are always rigged to some extent. If Putin were to go, he wouldn’t be replaced by Navalny or any other opposition figure via democratic means; it would be the oligarchs choice. There’s a good chance that they’d want out of Ukraine though as it’s (very) bad for business.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Quite! Russia probably hasn't had a proper Presidential election since perhaps 2008, maybe 2012 at a push. So whoever wins in 2024 will have done so via anti-democratic means. It is arguable that Russia has never had a free and fair Presidential election since the first in 1991 as even the earlier elections whilst they may not have suffered from rampant vote rigging there was still significant issues with resource bias i.e. the full might of the Russian state being thrown behind the incumbent giving them unequal airtime on media and so on. So whilst they may have been free elections without a predetermined result they certainly weren't fair elections.

Yes, there's no real culture of free and fair elections there. The best possible outcome is that the people who decide these things in Russia go with a moderate candidate who adopts a hard line at home while being internationally normal. Think Singapore as a good example: they don't really have democracy, but they also behave normally and don't pose a threat to anyone else.

In news from the front, it seems that while things are going very slowly, Russia just doesn't have any means of counterattack. They're facing a lot of their equipment being destroyed away from the front line, while those on the front line are seemingly suffering through the lack of any real support. The minefields are an issue, but just how long can the Russians survive what appears to be an onslaught behind enemy lines?

Even the Russian missile attacks are really not having that much effect anymore.

 

[brad465]

Yes, there's no real culture of free and fair elections there. The best possible outcome is that the people who decide these things in Russia go with a moderate candidate who adopts a hard line at home while being internationally normal. Think Singapore as a good example: they don't really have democracy, but they also behave normally and don't pose a threat to anyone else.

In news from the front, it seems that while things are going very slowly, Russia just doesn't have any means of counterattack. They're facing a lot of their equipment being destroyed away from the front line, while those on the front line are seemingly suffering through the lack of any real support. The minefields are an issue, but just how long can the Russians survive what appears to be an onslaught behind enemy lines?

Even the Russian missile attacks are really not having that much effect anymore.

Yes I do think the Russian front falling will be a case of gradually, then suddenly, like what happened in Kherson last year.

 

[Pete_uk]

And that day can't come soon enough

 

[Cloud Strife]

Yes I do think the Russian front falling will be a case of gradually, then suddenly, like what happened in Kherson last year.

I actually don't think so. There seems to be a general pattern now where the Ukrainians bombard the Russian defences into oblivion, then they slowly clear minefields and move in. The Russians are losing a staggering amount of kit, and Ukraine seems quite content to simply grind away, knowing that the losses are mounting for Russia with no sign of replacements. Then you've got all the small attacks within Russia itself that will be taking a toll.

The million dollar question right now is just how heavily mined the interior of the occupied territory is. If Russia didn't mine the second/third defensive lines as heavily as the first, then your scenario might come true.

There is the point that the Russian defences are degrading, but I think they should be able to hold out until the autumn rains begin. That will buy them 2-3 months until the ground freezes. But again, it seems as if Ukraine hasn't really committed much of their forces at all, so they should be able to keep rotating forces in and out while Russia simply leaves them there on the front line.

 

[edwin_m]

I actually don't think so. There seems to be a general pattern now where the Ukrainians bombard the Russian defences into oblivion, then they slowly clear minefields and move in. The Russians are losing a staggering amount of kit, and Ukraine seems quite content to simply grind away, knowing that the losses are mounting for Russia with no sign of replacements. Then you've got all the small attacks within Russia itself that will be taking a toll.

The million dollar question right now is just how heavily mined the interior of the occupied territory is. If Russia didn't mine the second/third defensive lines as heavily as the first, then your scenario might come true.

There is the point that the Russian defences are degrading, but I think they should be able to hold out until the autumn rains begin. That will buy them 2-3 months until the ground freezes. But again, it seems as if Ukraine hasn't really committed much of their forces at all, so they should be able to keep rotating forces in and out while Russia simply leaves them there on the front line.

However, the slowness of the Ukrainian advance means that the Russians (assuming they have some equipment stockpiled) can shore up the defenses behind their existing lines if Ukraine shows any sign of breaking through.

It's possible there's a tipping point if they manage to sever the railway through Tokmak, although I saw someone on Youtube suggesting that's it's so near the front near Vuhledar (possibly why the Russians have been so keen to advance there) that it's not much use for bringing supplies in from the east. That makes the Kerch bridge even more critical.

 

[Cloud Strife]

However, the slowness of the Ukrainian advance means that the Russians (assuming they have some equipment stockpiled) can shore up the defenses behind their existing lines if Ukraine shows any sign of breaking through.

I think this is really the question, because it seems that there's a pretty steady flow of videos showing Ukraine destroying all sorts of equipment behind the front lines. On the other hand, I do wonder what these bombardments will do to the Russian morale, because who will want to be on the front line if they know that the outcome is being flattened by artillery and then being wiped out as they retreat?

But I personally feel that Russia will simply have layer upon layer of defences installed, and that the only way forward is by simply edging forward meter by meter.

It's possible there's a tipping point if they manage to sever the railway through Tokmak, although I saw someone on Youtube suggesting that's it's so near the front near Vuhledar (possibly why the Russians have been so keen to advance there) that it's not much use for bringing supplies in from the east. That makes the Kerch bridge even more critical.

There is part of me that wonders why the US haven't given Ukraine the means to simply take out the Kerch Bridge through an overwhelming attack. We know the Russian air defences are poor, and a devastating strike that simply overwhelms the Kerch Bridge defences would send a very serious message to Russia.

At the same time, perhaps this current situation where the Russians are living constantly in fear of the bridge being attacked is better. It will demoralise them even more, and that constant fear that they'll be trapped in Crimea with nowhere to go will certainly ruin a few days.

Yet again today, Russia has used a cruise missile to kill civilians during the day. It's a clear response to military setbacks, and underlines exactly why they need to be eliminated. I'd say that it's certainly time to close the EU borders to Russia, as well as banning Russian citizens from moving both within the EU as well as across EU borders.

 

[najaB]

I'd say that it's certainly time to close the EU borders to Russia, as well as banning Russian citizens from moving both within the EU as well as across EU borders.

Though, we need to be careful not to justify Putin's "the West hates Russia" narrative though. So maybe not complete closure of the borders but "enhanced checks" which effectively close them for most Russians.

 

[Welly]

I'd say that it's certainly time to close the EU borders to Russia, as well as banning Russian citizens from moving both within the EU as well as across EU borders.

How can the EU ban anyone from moving within the EU? That's like the UK banning someone from moving between counties!

 

[Cloud Strife]

How can the EU ban anyone from moving within the EU? That's like the UK banning someone from moving between counties!

Very easily, in fact. Some Schengen visas are issued only for an individual country, and Spain in particular is known for issuing such limitations. You can do the same with residence permits by restricting them to the country of issue.

Lithuania, for instance, issues a transit visa which is only valid if you stay on the train between Kaliningrad and Russia proper.

 

[Welly]

Very easily, in fact. Some Schengen visas are issued only for an individual country, and Spain in particular is known for issuing such limitations. You can do the same with residence permits by restricting them to the country of issue.

Lithuania, for instance, issues a transit visa which is only valid if you stay on the train between Kaliningrad and Russia proper.

In practice, there are no customs posts on the borders within the EU so what stops them moving around?

 

[Cloud Strife]

In practice, there are no customs posts on the borders within the EU so what stops them moving around?

The threat of a ban of up to 5 years from Schengen, plus a substantial fine if caught, plus major difficulties in obtaining a new visa/residence permit in future if they've been previously deported.

 

[Welly]

The threat of a ban of up to 5 years from Schengen, plus a substantial fine if caught, plus major difficulties in obtaining a new visa/residence permit in future if they've been previously deported.

Only if a cop actually catches them.

 

[edwin_m]

Only if a cop actually catches them.

Any need to present ID to the police in any country could, in principle, result in the passport history being checked to identify the country of entry to Schengen, and punishment could result if they were in a different country. Whether systems are in place to allow this to be done routinely is another question.

 

[brad465]

This I think is good news for Ukraine/the West, not just as a sign of internal wrangling in Russian ranks, but this particular General was one of the few in Russian command who actually knew what he was doing:

Russian general who ran Ukraine war fired - report

Sergei Surovikin was head of aerospace forces but has not been since a failed mutiny in June.

www.bbc.co.uk

One of Russia's leading military figures, Gen Sergei Surovikin, has reportedly lost his job as air force chief after weeks of speculation his disappearance from public view.
Ria Novosti agency said he had been relieved of his post, citing a source.
For several months Gen Surovikin was in charge of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine but he has not been seen since the Wagner mutiny in June.
Observers believe his removal dates back to the botched rebellion.
One Russian report quoted a defence ministry source as saying he had been dismissed because of a transfer to a new job and he was now on a short vacation.
His role as head of aerospace forces has been taken on by air force chief of staff, Gen Viktor Afzalov, Ria Novosti adds.
During the hours that Wagner mercenaries marched towards Moscow on 24 June, Gen Surovikin appeared in a video appealing to them to return to base.
But his awkward performance was later compared to a hostage-style video. The general was known to have good relations with Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who reserved his loathing for other figures in the defence hierarchy.
In the weeks after the June revolt, there were unconfirmed reports by Russian military bloggers that Gen Surovikin had been detained for questioning. But officials denied he was being held in a pre-trial detention centre and one retired general said that he was merely "resting" and unavailable.
Gen Surovikin, a 56-year-old veteran of the Soviet campaign in Afghanistan in the 1980s, was given the nickname General Armageddon for his brutal tactics in Syria.
As commander of Russian forces and later the air force he left much of the second city, Aleppo, in ruins and bombarded civilians in rebel-held Idlib province. He was the first army officer to head Russia's aerospace forces and had no experience in aviation.
His big promotion came in October 2022, when he was made commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, months into the flagging, full-scale invasion.
His three months in charge were not a success. On the day he was appointed, the bridge over the Kerch Strait was attacked, and weeks later he ordered a retreat from the city of Kherson. Within three months he was replaced by Russian chief of staff Valery Gerasimov, becoming one of his deputies.
Russia's military leaders have had little to boast about since President Vladimir Putin sent in the troops in February 2022 and many of the top brass have been moved to different posts.
Before Gen Surovikin was put in charge of the operation, the war effort was run by Col-Gen Gennady Zhidko. He died in Moscow last week after what officials said was a "lengthy illness".

 

[DustyBin]

This I think is good news for Ukraine/the West, not just as a sign of internal wrangling in Russian ranks, but this particular General was one of the few in Russian command who actually knew what he was doing:

Russian general who ran Ukraine war fired - report

Sergei Surovikin was head of aerospace forces but has not been since a failed mutiny in June.

www.bbc.co.uk

I still have a suspicion that Prigozhin was counting on support from Surovikin that didn't materialise.

 

[d9009alycidon]

Prigozhin was killed in an airplane accident today, nasty things planes

 

[1D54]

Ten people have been killed in a private jet crash north of Moscow - with the Russian Civil Aviation Authority saying Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the passenger list. Seven passengers and three crew were on board the Embraer aircraft, which was en route from Moscow to St Petersburg, TASS news agency reported

 

[Gloster]

Presumably the plane fell out of a window.

 

[gg1]

Makes a change from clumsily tripping over and falling out of a 10th floor window or accidentally confusing sugar with a radioactive isotope when making a cup of tea.

 

[kristiang85]

It seems it was shot down by Russian air defence. Videos clearly show it exploding in the sky.

I'm amazed he lasted this long, tbh. I'm also amazed he went anywhere near a plane (or balcony).

 

[adc82140]

Was he definitely on it? The BBC have rowed back from him being killed, to his name just being on the passenger list. He may well have been aboard, but it's not certain.

 

[Gloster]

Russian officials, so take with due caution, now appear to be confirming that he was on board. (Or, if he wasn’t on board, he will have been by the time the casualty list comes out.)