...because passenger numbers at Stranraer are falling (one of the few places in the UK that can say that) and the ferry trade has left town, meaning that it has a much weaker case for rail investment?
Hi, now that is an interesting point. So are you suggesting, which I think you are, that where an area suffers deprivation e.g. S Yorkshire coalfield Government then give up on it and pile on more agony by isolating it further?
The Stranraer ferry issue is not quite as you portray it, as I think you well know given the well argued posts you display elsewhere.
In order to minimise the number of coaches used, Stena/ScotRail have come up with a timetable that means you have to leave Glasgow 20-25 minutes earlier by an electric train than the corresponding diesel one direct to Stranraer, change trains at a station without step free access (Ayr) and fitted with barriers (always a joy with cases that one) and travel by coach on a 45 mile 75 minute journey (if you are lucky) dangerous road (A77) in comparison to the safer, quicker and environmentally friendlier rail route to Stranraer. The reason? Because leaving Loch Ryan Port you have to go south to get to the rail head to go north.
I have to go south to my local station to go north, but it doesn't mean I drive all the way to Glasgow instead, even though off peak it would be quicker!
It is incredibly ironic that in the Scottish Transport Projects Review the argument for not proceeding with express coaches between Scrabster and Inverness (despite by road it is quicker than by rail which in Stranraer's case is not necessarily true) is that to have done so would undermine the rail service. Level playing field comes to mind.
Loch Ryan Port is 14 mins journey time away from Stranraer. It would take that to get off a plane at Glasgow Airport and get your baggage reclaimed. For that the town and area is meant to suffer? Cairnryan (P&O's port) is only 10 minutes away.
The case for retaining ferry passengers on the Stranraer line services is very strong. It was as much a political decision as anything. I would argue that if Stranraer had been Thurso that decision would not have been taken, but of course I can't prove it.
The Stranraer line needs a degree of continued connectivity. It does not justify all its services going to/from Glasgow. No one locally is arguing for that. But to enact the costed option in the final ITT will kill the route off, but perhaps, as I suggested earlier that is the real reason. I am not trying to start a conspiracy theory thread off here but there are too many coincidences that are illogical not to come to that proposition as a real option. I have even heard it said from a senior RTP source that once Glasgow - Kilmarnock is electrified all diesel services will go Ayr - Kilmarnock - Dumfries - Carlisle! Not sure I concur with that either, but the SNP Govt are very ideoligical at times (e.g. wind farms).
Tbtc it is not an easy one to solve, I agree, but you must look at why numbers fluctuate not just accept them at face value. You could end up with totally the wrong reasons.
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Do you live in the Stranraer area? If so, it would be good to know what the services are like at the moment and how busy the trains are. About my own area North of Inverness, We have seen a healthy increase of passenger numbers and services to and from Inverness. Unfortunately, and just like the Stranraer line South of Ayr, capacity is the problem due to single line working. with the first section out of Inverness to Muir Of Ord causing a particular headache. Beauly, Ord and now Conon Bridge have all seen passenger numbers swell and now with the Kessock Bridge closed Southbound for repairs, it's standing room only on the morning trains. The normally 2 car 17.15 to Ardgay has had an extra 158 added for the increased numbers. Excuse my ignorance on your part of the country but with the ferry terminal moving to Cairnryan, did this have a major impact on travelling numbers? I always thought of the Stranraer line similar to the West Highland line, great to travel on for leisure, but not very quick compared to the faster road journey.
Yes I use the Stranraer services very frequently.
The problem with the Stranraer line is that its traffic flows are complex. The majority of traffic is only along the top third of the route (Ayr Girvan incl Maybole). This was the case both pre and post Stena ferry move. The problem with taking the ferry traffic off the railway (which is different from the ferry terminal location moving 6 or 7 miles) is that it undermines a very fragile economy (the point I was debating with tbtc).
In strict financial terms you would close the railway south of Girvan. No argument. Currently it is as one senior manager put it a basket case. And I dont disagree. But my point is do you try and make it less of a basket case by doing sensible pragmatic things or do you chase a dream exposed by some consultants in chasing the tourist? The tourists do not exist in that area in any great numbers. There are simply some very serious structural issues such as two authorities, one north - south, the other east west, two RTPs, two tourist agencies that frankly dont work in the interests of the A77/A714 corridor through which the Stranraer line runs. By retaining the ferry passenger you give yourself a chance of developing a small tourist market, because the ferry traffic is steady that is why. Without it one is climbing a mountain.
The other complexity is Kilmarnock. Kilmarnock has seen better days, but it will have a new £50m college constructed right next to the railway, students are a captive market for public transport and there are currently over 150 students from adjacent the Stranraer line attending it. Imagine how they felt when two years ago Transport Scotland made most go one hour earlier by axing the train from Stranraer north of Ayr and those from Stranraer just err made other arrangements. It is that ineptitude which makes us locals unhappy. All TS do is send a bunch of Chinese counters to observe the number of people on the train, usually about this time of year. No one asks why they are travelling!! In addition some other people go to the theatre in Kilmarnock, play Bingo, access the Dumfries or Barrhead line. If it had a wonderful indoor shopping centre I am sure it would attract more but that is about it.
So in having a market adjunct to the Glasgow one, the Stranraer line is different from the FNL or WHL. That is why in broad terms there are two service patterns Kilmarnock Girvan and Glasgow/Kilmarnock Stranraer. It gets a bit messy with some Glasgow - Kilmarnocks extended to become Girvan services or vice versa but in the main that is it.
Capacity is not really an issue. The line is very good from a timing point of view. Hold ups are usually because of late running Glasgow trains because of the silly 4tph Glasgow Ayr and occasionally the odd track circuit failure but it is pretty reliable.
In terms of numbers no round trip to Stranraer gives a consistent flow. That is one journey may be good (Up or Down) but the converse is quiet.
Of the six post ferry trains to Stranraer in the Up direction, the first and second are ok and then fill up nicely at Girvan and Maybole, the third a bit hit and miss because IMO it is the wrong train for Glasgow at 1250 from Stranraer, the rest pretty quiet and fairly useless for any tourist traffic because 1443 is too early and 1908 too late. The last train Up is dead. Of course the easiest solution is beaming. You borrow Star Trek technology and beam down three trains for the Up route and equally two in the corresponding direction. This would resolve empty trains. When the ferries were running the 1443 train was a busy service. Now pretty dead, until you get to Girvan.
Of the Girvan only trains the 0943 is picking up and the others tend to have some semblance of numbers. Girvan is a good example of increased services and reasonable fares. Hence why we campaign for Stranraer to be given a sensible service! We know people will use it. How? Because when the Stranraer ticket promotion was on ScotRail/Visit Scotland only advertised it going to Stranraer. They got about a 100% increase in numbers. When that is 12 to 24, you get the perspective. When the local CRP SAYLSA advertised it in Stranraer passenger numbers increased 6-8 fold. The scheme made a profit and if the fare was permanent I would suggest ScotRail would make £0.75m additional per annum!
Like your route the seasonal tourist variation is small and as mentioned in my reply to tbtc the tourism agencies do not support the line because structurally they are misaligned geographically to it. Until that is addressed relying solely on tourists, which was the thrust of a consultancy report four or five years ago will be difficult to sustain, hence arguing for retention or should that be reclamation of the ferry traffic!
For Girvan and Maybole it is a different issue. There, it is a matter of upping the frequency to hourly. Our railway is fast. Ayr to Maybole 11 minutes, Ayr to Girvan 26 minutes. By car Id put the same journeys at 19 minutes and 35 minutes and by bus take a calendar!
