Study to investigate re-opening Gobowen to Welshpool line

[Gareth Marston]

No, you would spend proportionately less, and to projects with a reasonable cost-benefit ratio. Such as northern urban and inter-urban upgrades.

Oswestry would not wash it's face in cost-benefit. Bigger fish to fry, battles that can be won......

Yet Gobowen to Blodwell has a Transport and Works Act to reopen it. The intention is to have a shuttle from Oswestry to Gobowen. It's a lot further down the pipe line than Many schemes even in the favoured South East.

 

[muddythefish]

Here's the Torys road shopping list for Shropshire.

Dualling the A5 from Shrewsbury to Welsh Border.
A483. Bypass around Pant/Llanymynech.
A458 Buttington to Wollaston scheme.
Shrewsbury North West Relief Road
A new link road from the M54 to the M6

And no doubt a few others. That's easily pushing close to a £ billion.
£20 odd million toget Oswestry back on the network is a bargain.

All road schemes ..... no surprise there then. Hundreds of millions are available to further pollute the planet and shunt the traffic jam farther down the road to another location but nothing for the public transport alternatives.

 

[muddythefish]

There's urban and then there's rural. Oswestry is a rural town.

Much as I love Oswestry this project is not viable, there are better battles to fight.

Oswestry is exactly the sort of town that should be reconnected to the national rail network

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Yet Gobowen to Blodwell has a Transport and Works Act to reopen it. The intention is to have a shuttle from Oswestry to Gobowen. It's a lot further down the pipe line than Many schemes even in the favoured South East.

Is the line area in the Transport and Works Act from Blodwel Quarry to Oswestry in the first instance only and it seems to mention being subject to the level crossings on the A5 and the A483 being respectively replaced by a tunnel and a bridge.

 

[gazthomas]

Oswestry doesn’t make this list of largest towns in England without a railway station:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_towns_in_England_without_a_railway_station

Link not a quote. Usual Wikipedia caveats apply

 

[Gareth Marston]

Is the line area in the Transport and Works Act from Blodwel Quarry to Oswestry in the first instance only and it seems to mention being subject to the level crossings on the A5 and the A483 being respectively replaced by a tunnel and a bridge.

The trackbed is owned by Shropshire CC and leased to Cambrian Heritage Railways.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Oswestry doesn’t make this list of largest towns in England without a railway station:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_towns_in_England_without_a_railway_station

Link not a quote. Usual Wikipedia caveats apply

no its a big list though! however its about top of the list for easy to reinstate rail links to towns above 15K in population.

 

[PR1Berske]

As railway enthusiasts we don't seem very good on here about getting behind possible new reinstatements. What's the likely BCR for this proposal - is it really totally hopeless? Is there anyone able to give indicative BCRs - without charging 60k, or anything for them?

Maybe then we can target a top 10 or 20 say and make sure they are sped through before tackling the next 10 or 20? I think ATOC did this with Connecting Communities' in 2009?

What I've found after many years on this forum is a reopening proposal is usually smothered by post 4 for reasons which usually sound something like:

a] It's a line which has been built upon and/or would cost too much to re-lay and/or has no wider benefit to the immediate area. I'm thinking Skipton-Colne here, a project I used to support fully until many users on this forum persuaded me to change my mind because the money was simply too great for a scheme which would generate too little resulting benefit.
b) It's an enthusiast-focused scheme which has more to do with looking far into the past than thinking of the future. That's your Carmarthen-Aberystwyth.
c) It's small-fry compared to far 'sexier', far 'bolder' projects. That'll be anything local that could be steamrollered by HS2.

What this forum tends to do is look with cold, calculating reality on reopening schemes. One quick look at Google Maps on another tab is all that's needed to
prove that a suggestion has to be dismissed because a single housing development lies between Point A and Point B. It's not always a bad thing, it stops threads becoming fantasy wishlists and crayola festivals. It is always good, I suppose, to be grounded and realistic.

THAT SAID, you sound as I often do when faced with a barrage of 'Well actually..." responses to suggestions and ideas. Sometimes the merest hint of a proposal is too readily given the wet blanket treatment. Sometimes it can be better to explore the possible rather than to dismiss the right to dream...

 

[Gareth Marston]

b) It's an enthusiast-focused scheme which has more to do with looking far into the past than thinking of the future. That's your Carmarthen-Aberystwyth.

I think you'll find the people promoting it are on the "green" end of the spectrum and don't have loco number books.

 

[PR1Berske]

I think you'll find the people promoting it are on the "green" end of the spectrum and don't have loco number books.

I stand corrected, maybe I should have used "romantic" in place of "enthusiast"

 

[yorksrob]

On this occasion, I notice that the presence of a regular bus service is being used as an excuse not to reopen this short route, even though there are likely to be significant time benefits for a Shrewsbury - Oswestry rail service.

Of course, were bus services scarce in the area, those who oppose any improvement to the Regional Railway would be trotting out the old "oh it can't support a bus service, so how is the area going to support a railway" line.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

Of course, were bus services scarce in the area, those who oppose any improvement to the Regional Railway would be trotting out the old "oh it can't support a bus service, so how is the area going to support a railway" line.

This is one of your favourite canards. Instead of sneering at that argument, why don't you try rebutting it? Please explain how a route which is so lightly used that it can't support a bus service is nevertheless able to finance a train service.

 

[krus_aragon]

This is one of your favourite canards. Instead of sneering at that argument, why don't you try rebutting it? Please explain how a route which is so lightly used that it can't support a bus service is nevertheless able to finance a train service.

I think yorksrob was using the "infrequent bus service" argument as a rebuttal of the argument "a regular bus service is a reason not to reopen a railway" (and not necessarily belittling the "infrequent bus service" argument).

My perspective is that an infrequent bus service probably does indicate insufficient demand for a railway. But to rephrase yorksrob's point:

If we accept that a well patronised bus service means that the service is good enough (thus no need to reopen the railway), it becomes difficult to identify when a railway would be needed. If the bus service wasn't good enough, and thus not well patronised, how would one distinguish between a situation where the poor bus service suppresses demand, and a situation where there is little demand in the first place? The thrust of the argument is that the original assertion is wrong: a regular bus service doesn't necessarily mean that there is no need for a railway service.

 

[PR1Berske]

The chicken-and-egg of railway reopenings!

 

[Gareth Marston]

The chicken-and-egg of railway reopenings!

Bertie the bus is a poor indicator of any potential rail demand due to the high element of free travel for over 60 years that use it and the virtual absence of anyone else outside of London.

 

[B&I]

Bertie the bus is a poor indicator of any potential rail demand due to the high element of free travel for over 60 years that use it and the virtual absence of anyone else outside of London.

The converse may also apply - i.e. most bus services outside urban areas are so slow, and such poor value, that many people who might use a train shun the bus

 

[Doctor Fegg]

no its a big list though! however its about top of the list for easy to reinstate rail links to towns above 15K in population.

Though really you need to look at catchment area, not just town population. Plenty of rural stations do very nicely by acting as a railhead for a wider area.

 

[The_Engineer]

Though really you need to look at catchment area, not just town population. Plenty of rural stations do very nicely by acting as a railhead for a wider area.

Which is precisely what Gobowen does for the Oswestry area already...….

 

[yorksrob]

I think yorksrob was using the "infrequent bus service" argument as a rebuttal of the argument "a regular bus service is a reason not to reopen a railway" (and not necessarily belittling the "infrequent bus service" argument).

My perspective is that an infrequent bus service probably does indicate insufficient demand for a railway. But to rephrase yorksrob's point:

If we accept that a well patronised bus service means that the service is good enough (thus no need to reopen the railway), it becomes difficult to identify when a railway would be needed. If the bus service wasn't good enough, and thus not well patronised, how would one distinguish between a situation where the poor bus service suppresses demand, and a situation where there is little demand in the first place? The thrust of the argument is that the original assertion is wrong: a regular bus service doesn't necessarily mean that there is no need for a railway service.

Exactly. It is the idea of a well patronised bus service as a reason for not building a railway that seems particularly non-sensible.

That said, there are some routes which, owing to topography or distance that lend themselves to train travel, but not bus travel. These would tend to be the longer ones though.

 

[yorksrob]

Which is precisely what Gobowen does for the Oswestry area already...….

If you have a station in an urban centre such as Oswestry, it can act as a railhead for the urban population who are used to living in a town and rely on walking most of the time. It can also attract residents driving in from wealthier out-laying areas. With a more distant parkway station, you can attract the second group easily enough, but it will be less attractive to the first group.

 

[Unixman]

Gobowen to Oswestry is entirely feasible and, I guess, at a relatively low cost. I would suggest that a PPM would be the unit of choice, integrating with the services at Gobowen. A couple of other points: as the railway was never actually closed, just mothballed, would it would have grandfather rights over the road? I might well be wrong but it is a thought. Secondly, the railways passes just by one of the major employers of the region, with a high traffic volume from both staff and visitors: the RJAH which has poor links to the rest of the transport network.

Having said that, the CHR are driving south of Oswestry, with the trackbed being lowered to get under a much modified bridge (Gasworks Bridge) with ambitions to reach Weston Wharf (conveniently by a brewery) next year.

 

[krus_aragon]

Having said that, the CHR are driving south of Oswestry

My (slightly antiquated) head went the wrong way there, and was thinking "what is the Chester and Holyhead Railway doing building a branch line to Oswestry?" Then I remembered that it's 2018, and it must surely be the Cambrian Heritage Railway.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Which is precisely what Gobowen does for the Oswestry area already...….

But given the population in its catchment being in theory 30-35k Gobowens footfall is in fact very poor. Compare it with say Ludlow , Welshpool and even Newtown. As I stated previously the shuttle in the early 60's was busier than Gobowen is now.

 

[6Gman]

The converse may also apply - i.e. most bus services outside urban areas are so slow, and such poor value, that many people who might use a train shun the bus

I wonder how many people on here have actually tried to travel to Oswestry by public transport?

I have.

Train to Gobowen, then a short bus journey on a decent frequency.

Perhaps a dedicated bus link, timed to meet trains, would be better. On the other hand it could just cream off enough traffic to make the existing bus unsustainable ...

 

[Llanigraham]

I wonder how many people on here have actually tried to travel to Oswestry by public transport?

I have.

Train to Gobowen, then a short bus journey on a decent frequency.

Perhaps a dedicated bus link, timed to meet trains, would be better. On the other hand it could just cream off enough traffic to make the existing bus unsustainable ...

Quite, and it goes to the Hospital!
A station at Oswestry would still need a bus link to there.

 

[transmanche]

I wonder how many people on here have actually tried to travel to Oswestry by public transport?

I have and it can be a right PITA.

• The 53 bus has been gradually reduced from every 30 mins, to every 40 mins, to hourly.
• The 2 bus operates hourly.
• Combined they operate a 30 min frequency at xx:12 and xx:42 from Oswestry Bus Station to Gobowen, meaning if you want to travel northbound, you have to get the xx:12 and hang around for about 20 mins at the station.
• In the reverse direction, train arrival times mean you just miss the xx:56 bus and have to wait for the xx:26.
• Both bus routes and the trains are operated by Arriva.
• As both bus routes terminate at the Bus Station, prospective passengers who live the other side of town or out towards Morda, etc. would need two buses. So they don't bother with the bus and just drive to the station (or drive all the way).
• The bus is quite expensive for just a short ride (far more expensive than Arriva NE charge for a similar distance.
• Through bus/rail tickets are available for some flows, but they are poorly advertised and seemingly only available from ticket offices. You can't buy them online or on apps.

As a result, I usually get a family member to collect me/drop me off.

A train to Oswestry station, which is close to the bus station, would greatly improve access for all.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

As something of a brief aside in the hope of spreading the news about the short branch line from Gobowen to Oswestry, I have been running the Closed Stations Journey quiz on the Quizzes and Games forum since I launched it in 2011 and I have just launched journey number 637 in the series so far, which has this particular branch line as one of its legs of the journey.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Though really you need to look at catchment area, not just town population. Plenty of rural stations do very nicely by acting as a railhead for a wider area.

Pontypool & New Inn has a town of 30000 barely 2 miles away (Pontypool) and the footfall not amiss for a rural village yet it sits in the travel to work area of Cardiff and to a lesser degree Bristol. A railhead hotspot it is not.

Likewise Gobowens footfall of 200K per annum whilst superficially sounding OK is actually quite poor when you consider the village itself has a population of 8000, nearby Welshpool (pop 6500) manages 175000 per annum footfall with fewer trains. Ludlow (pop 11000) has a footfall of 300K. If you look at rail journeys per annum by respective catchment area, Gobowen has 5.7 (35,000 catchment), Welshpool 13 (13,000 catchment) and Ludlow 15 (20,000 catchment).

You'd be expecting Gobowen to be pumping out far more than 200K per annum footfall if the good folk from Oswestry were all rail heading.

The failure to rail head in the numbers assumed was of course a big factor in why the hoped for savings of the closure program were never realised.

 

[jimm]

Gareth, not all those 8,000 are in the village of Gobowen. That's the population of the Shropshire Council electoral ward it is in, which also includes the area north and west of Oswestry up to the border with Wales.

https://shropshire.gov.uk/media/2888/gobowen-selattyn-weston-rhyn-ward-profile-2013.pdf

The population of the village itself is probably somewhere in the region of 4,000 nowadays.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Gareth, not all those 8,000 are in the village of Gobowen. That's the population of the Shropshire Council electoral ward it is in, which also includes the area north and west of Oswestry up to the border with Wales.

https://shropshire.gov.uk/media/2888/gobowen-selattyn-weston-rhyn-ward-profile-2013.pdf

The population of the village itself is probably somewhere in the region of 4,000 nowadays.

However whatever the "mix" it goes to show that stations who have a larger proportion of their catchment in proximity generate more footfall, Ludlows and Welshpools catchment is roughly equal to that of Gobowens but they generate twice Gobowens footfall.

The catchment here at Newtown is relatively small in addition to the population of the town - there's really only a handful of villages where were closer than Welshpool, Caersws or Craven Arms. There's about 11,500 in the town and maybe another 3500 in the catchment, we have a footfall of 165K. Go down the line six miles to Caersws and in addition to the village itself c1000 its suppose to be the railhead for the Carno Valley and Upper Severn Valley (Llanidloes) there's maybe close on 9000 more in its catchment. Footfall is 60K.

Outlying catchments are not generators of usage.