The return of local restrictions/guidance

[nedchester]

And to make things better, its our reaction that causes it. The UK's obsession with uber-testing the population has led to us being permanently under the infection rate microscope. How many other countries are wanting everyone to test at least twice a week.

At this point the only figures that matter are those ending up in hospitals and deaths. If these remain low & vaccine take-up remains at its current levels, we should be heading in the opposite direction and looking at considering declaring the pandemic at an end.

Indeed. There is no doubt whatsoever that this 'variant' is all over Europe including Austria and Germany

 

[Bantamzen]

Indeed. There is no doubt whatsoever that this 'variant' is all over Europe including Austria and Germany

Absolutely, but because the government here are making such an almighty fuss about it here, countries like these find it easier just to point the political finger and blame us. Its pure politics of course, and its wrong, but as we saw with the almighty cluster-you-know-what that occurred once Brexit came in, this government are very good at shooting us all in the foot.

 

[Yew]

Local restrictions should exist for the hotspots, and driving mobile testing locations and vaccine buses there would seem obvious

A quick glance at the map shows about half the land mass yellow, under 10 per 100,000 (or in more logical terminology less than one in ten thousand), often with no hospitalisations for days.

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Need to be tougher on the hotspots, and at same time abandon restrictions for areas under about 5 per 100,000. When only one person in 20,000 has covid, preaching like everyone locally is high risk is pointless

There is no evidence that local restrictions are effective. Unless we can prove they work, and are worth the harms caused, they should not be used.

 

[duncanp]

There is no evidence that local restrictions are effective. Unless we can prove they work, and are worth the harms caused, they should not be used.

Compulsory local lockdowns are ineffective - they did not work last year and there is no reason to suppose that they will do so if imposed again.

What does help if people use their common sense, as happened in Sweden during the first wave of the pandemic, and think of ways that they can limit their interaction with other people without causing too much inconvenience to themselves or others.

 

[PHILIPE]

I've been wondering if the spikes in cases are actually linked directly to the Indian Variant or is it being treated as such because it happens to have been discovered at the same time. Several variants have come along but we have seen all the panic with them disappear.

 

[bramling]

The Government have now decided 8 areas that the Indian variant is said to be spreading in significantly are now having "stay local" guidance applied, while those outside those areas are advised not to travel to them:

Covid: Eight Indian variant areas should avoid indoor gatherings

People are also asked not to go into or out of places hardest hit by the so-called Indian variant.

www.bbc.co.uk

So much for ditching the highly controversial local restrictions, I do not expect these to go down quietly (and hope they don't).

Divisive, ineffective slippery slope.

 

[Kite159]

Local restrictions don't work as people who live in that area will go somewhere else.

Ie if non essential shops or indoor hospitality closed, nothing is stopping someone from one of the areas jumping on a train to somewhere where it's open.

 

[Crossover]

The sanctimonious will use this guidance as an excuse for guilt tripping people for undertaking legal and safe activities.

Already happening around Facebook

 

[joncombe]

This article on the BBC Live coverage has me worried. There is a poster "Stop A Bolton Lockdown" (yet no mention from the Government of local lockdowns being back on the agenda .... but appears to be a Government poster) and the next is then quotes from the head of Bolton NHS about how under pressure they are, which is I suspect an attempt to put the Government under pressure to apply some sort of restrictions in Bolton.

Meanwhile I see there is now worry about other areas (I saw Chelmsford, Canterbury and Aldershot mentioned, which I haven't previously). It is beginning to look like a repeat of last year. A few local areas placed under restrictions, which gradually spread until it's most of the country, followed by another national lockdown. I do hope I'm wrong, but it has me worried.

 

[yorksrob]

Unfortunately we endorsed the Establishment's lockdown strategy at the local elections. We've only ourselves to blame in that respect.

 

[NorthOxonian]

This article on the BBC Live coverage has me worried. There is a poster "Stop A Bolton Lockdown" (yet no mention from the Government of local lockdowns being back on the agenda .... but appears to be a Government poster) and the next is then quotes from the head of Bolton NHS about how under pressure they are, which is I suspect an attempt to put the Government under pressure to apply some sort of restrictions in Bolton.

Meanwhile I see there is now worry about other areas (I saw Chelmsford, Canterbury and Aldershot mentioned, which I haven't previously). It is beginning to look like a repeat of last year. A few local areas placed under restrictions, which gradually spread until it's most of the country, followed by another national lockdown. I do hope I'm wrong, but it has me worried.

Chelmsford has a case rate of 7.7, while Aldershot is a little higher but is seeing cases fall. Only in Canterbury are cases remotely concerning, and even there the spike looks too fast to be a new variant and more likely due to schools or a single event.

 

[bramling]

Unfortunately we endorsed the Establishment's lockdown strategy at the local elections. We've only ourselves to blame in that respect.

Collectively yes - but I for one didn't, and I know I'm not the only one here.

People, again collectively, seem to relish it all - yet on the other hand they moan about things like not being able to see a doctor, or be able to get a filling without having to wait years. The next thing is almost certain to be an explosion in cancer deaths - indeed it's concerning to see just at my work alone there's been a sharp increase in non-Covid-related deaths, both people of working age, or in some cases very soon after retirement. We've lost quite a few in the last year, none of whom would have outwardly appeared to be likely to go.

 

[yorksrob]

Collectively yes - but I for one didn't, and I know I'm not the only one here.

People, again collectively, seem to relish it all - yet on the other hand they moan about things like not being able to see a doctor, or be able to get a filling without having to wait years. The next thing is almost certain to be an explosion in cancer deaths - indeed it's concerning to see just at my work alone there's been a sharp increase in non-Covid-related deaths, both people of working age, or in some cases very soon after retirement. We've lost quite a few in the last year, none of whom would have outwardly appeared to be likely to go.

Indeed. Neither did I (you won't be surprised to find out).

 

[big_rig]

This article on the BBC Live coverage has me worried. There is a poster "Stop A Bolton Lockdown" (yet no mention from the Government of local lockdowns being back on the agenda .... but appears to be a Government poster) and the next is then quotes from the head of Bolton NHS about how under pressure they are, which is I suspect an attempt to put the Government under pressure to apply some sort of restrictions in Bolton.

Meanwhile I see there is now worry about other areas (I saw Chelmsford, Canterbury and Aldershot mentioned, which I haven't previously). It is beginning to look like a repeat of last year. A few local areas placed under restrictions, which gradually spread until it's most of the country, followed by another national lockdown. I do hope I'm wrong, but it has me worried.

Wishful thinking, but if they weren't so desperate to present bad news, perhaps the the BBC/Guardian could take a look at the charts below and explain how Bolton NHS could possibly have seen "one of its busiest ever days on Monday?"

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhstrust&areaName=Bolton%20NHS%20Foundation%20Trust

[Charts of Coronavirus Dashboard showing more often than not over the last year there have been >50 covid patients in said hospitals]

 

[Ediswan]

This article on the BBC Live coverage has me worried. There is a poster "Stop A Bolton Lockdown" (yet no mention from the Government of local lockdowns being back on the agenda .... but appears to be a Government poster)

The poster has the words 'Bolton Council' in the bottom right hand corner, so is probably from them.

 

[Yew]

Indeed. There is no doubt whatsoever that this 'variant' is all over Europe including Austria and Germany

Indeed, I honestly think we need to stop the incessant testing on the community and focus on what’s actually going on in hospitals.

 

[brad465]

Indeed, I honestly think we need to stop the incessant testing on the community and focus on what’s actually going on in hospitals.

Unfortunately the media are now portraying a concerning outlook in Bolton hospital:

Covid: Royal Bolton Hospital taking 'urgent action' over virus

Royal Bolton Hospital says it has experienced one of its busiest ever days amid a surge in patients.

www.bbc.co.uk

A hospital in Bolton has said it is taking "urgent action" to manage a surge in patients with Covid.
Royal Bolton Hospital said it had experienced "one of the busiest days we have ever had" and urged people to attend A&E only "if absolutely necessary".
The hospital said it was also placing an "increased focus on discharges to free bed space".
Bolton is among the areas hardest hit by the Indian variant of the virus.
The Greater Manchester town recorded 451 cases per 100,000 people in the week to 20 May, the highest in England.
Royal Bolton's deputy chief executive Andy Ennis said a number of patients were discharged overnight, but 41 patients with Covid remained on the wards, with eight in critical care.
On Monday people were attending "with a range of problems and staff are working very hard to ensure they receive all the care they need as quickly and efficiently as possible", he said.

Of course if one looks at the graph the rise at the moment is just a blip, and one would expect this to be limited because of the vaccine rollout, and Bolton itself saw an extra 6,000 from memory come forward, including some who'd previously rejected an offer. But then of course the media love to hype negatives.

 

[duncanp]

Unfortunately the media are now portraying a concerning outlook in Bolton hospital:

Covid: Royal Bolton Hospital taking 'urgent action' over virus

Royal Bolton Hospital says it has experienced one of its busiest ever days amid a surge in patients.

www.bbc.co.uk

Of course if one looks at the graph the rise at the moment is just a blip, and one would expect this to be limited because of the vaccine rollout, and Bolton itself saw an extra 6,000 from memory come forward, including some who'd previously rejected an offer. But then of course the media love to hype negatives.

And the BBC article doesn't make it clear that not all of the "surge" in patients is due to COVID-19.

On Monday people were attending "with a range of problems and staff are working very hard to ensure they receive all the care they need as quickly and efficiently as possible", he said.

"..one of the busiest days we have ever had" and urged people to attend A&E only "if absolutely necessary".

One of the few positive aspects of the pandemic is that, in the early stages, the number of A&E attendances fell quite dramatically.

This suggests that a lot of people who go to A&E could, and indeed should, be seen elsewhere.

 

[Hawkwood Junc]

Unfortunately the media are now portraying a concerning outlook in Bolton hospital:

Covid: Royal Bolton Hospital taking 'urgent action' over virus

Royal Bolton Hospital says it has experienced one of its busiest ever days amid a surge in patients.

www.bbc.co.uk

Of course if one looks at the graph the rise at the moment is just a blip, and one would expect this to be limited because of the vaccine rollout, and Bolton itself saw an extra 6,000 from memory come forward, including some who'd previously rejected an offer. But then of course the media love to hype negatives.

So people are presenting with a range of problems and the BBC and local NHS are going off the deep end.

I look forward to all local hospitals providing an update when there's a particularly large punch up on a Saturday night.

 

[NorthOxonian]

And the BBC article doesn't make it clear that not all of the "surge" in patients is due to COVID-19.



One of the few positive aspects of the pandemic is that, in the early stages, the number of A&E attendances fell quite dramatically.

This suggests that a lot of people who go to A&E could, and indeed should, be seen elsewhere.

I was reading a newspaper report from somewhere fairly random (possibly Swindon) which stated that their hospital was under immense pressure, but that virtually none of it was people presenting due to the virus, and instead it was backlogs and things which were missed due to hospital visits being cancelled.

And of course, if infection rates are high in an area people who have unrelated issues will test positive for the virus, adding to "hospitalisation" figures - so they need to be interpreted carefully.

 

[DelayRepay]

So people are presenting with a range of problems and the BBC and local NHS are going off the deep end.

And naturally, as restrictions ease and we all start to travel a bit more, and pubs re-open, and sporting activities re-start, we will see more people injuring themselves and needing a trip to A&E.

And if someone turns up in A&E because they've broken their leg, but tests positive for Covid, they'll be counted as a Covid patient.

The statistic nobody has given us is how many people are in hospital because of Covid, and of those how many had both vaccine shots at least three weeks prior to admission?

 

[duncanp]

So people are presenting with a range of problems and the BBC and local NHS are going off the deep end.

I look forward to all local hospitals providing an update when there's a particularly large punch up on a Saturday night.

I suspect a lot of the attendances at A&E are due to people having difficulty in getting an appointment with their GP.

It is often the case that different parts of the NHS try and palm patients of on to other parts of the NHS. (ie Can't get an appointment with your GP - phone 111. When you phone 111 they say - Go to A&E if it is urgent)

 

[ainsworth74]

Perhaps it's just me but I'm actually more concerned by the Government seemingly deciding to bring in new guidance (possibly as long ago as 14 May in the case of Bolton), not tell anybody, at all, about this new guidance and when journalists finally spot the change in guidance the Government then deny that they've not told anyone despite me yet seeing mention of a single individual outside of the Government to have said anything other than some variation on "there's new local guidance?" occasionally with more swearing. This to include people who really should know about this sort of thing within local government and healthcare.

I suppose really I shouldn't be surprised at any level of incompetence and then flat denial of any such incompetence from this shower but still. This is quite a staggering level of incompetence. Especially as it seemed they'd managed to turn a corner with the fairly well considered step by step process we've been following out of lockdown so far (yes yes some people, many people probably, would prefer the timeline was faster but the structure being followed has been fairly sound and easy to understand so far).

Then again this is the same Government which includes such highlights as publishing the details of legally binding regulations minutes before they're due to take effect, saying Christmas is not cancelled and it would be inhuman to do so before cancelling Christmas a few days later and announcing more restrictions via twitter just before everyone goes to bed on the evening before a major religious festival.

But still, this is a remarkable level of incompetence. Then again perhaps the plan is to blame all the people who failed to follow the "clearly published" guidance if things do get out of hand to try and deflect any suggestion that it was the Governments fault.

 

[nedchester]

Unfortunately the media are now portraying a concerning outlook in Bolton hospital:

Covid: Royal Bolton Hospital taking 'urgent action' over virus

Royal Bolton Hospital says it has experienced one of its busiest ever days amid a surge in patients.

www.bbc.co.uk

Of course if one looks at the graph the rise at the moment is just a blip, and one would expect this to be limited because of the vaccine rollout, and Bolton itself saw an extra 6,000 from memory come forward, including some who'd previously rejected an offer. But then of course the media love to hype negatives.

I would be interested how many of those have been offered and refused the vaccine?

 

[LAX54]

And to make things better, its our reaction that causes it. The UK's obsession with uber-testing the population has led to us being permanently under the infection rate microscope. How many other countries are wanting everyone to test at least twice a week.

At this point the only figures that matter are those ending up in hospitals and deaths. If these remain low & vaccine take-up remains at its current levels, we should be heading in the opposite direction and looking at considering declaring the pandemic at an end.

Tests twice a week, makes the UK sound as though we are in terrible trouble, yet how many of the positives are serious or just minor ?

 

[Bantamzen]

Tests twice a week, makes the UK sound as though we are in terrible trouble, yet how many of the positives are serious or just minor ?

Well as of yesterday, 2.58% of all test conducted from the start were returned positive, with 0.27% of all tests resulting in hospitalisation, & 0.07% resulting in death. Now of course some people will have more than one test, with others having had none. But it does demonstrate that such mass testing is really OTT, and is a complete waste of money unless you are a data analyst.

 

[Busaholic]

Perhaps it's just me but I'm actually more concerned by the Government seemingly deciding to bring in new guidance (possibly as long ago as 14 May in the case of Bolton), not tell anybody, at all, about this new guidance and when journalists finally spot the change in guidance the Government then deny that they've not told anyone despite me yet seeing mention of a single individual outside of the Government to have said anything other than some variation on "there's new local guidance?" occasionally with more swearing. This to include people who really should know about this sort of thing within local government and healthcare.

I suppose really I shouldn't be surprised at any level of incompetence and then flat denial of any such incompetence from this shower but still. This is quite a staggering level of incompetence. Especially as it seemed they'd managed to turn a corner with the fairly well considered step by step process we've been following out of lockdown so far (yes yes some people, many people probably, would prefer the timeline was faster but the structure being followed has been fairly sound and easy to understand so far).

Then again this is the same Government which includes such highlights as publishing the details of legally binding regulations minutes before they're due to take effect, saying Christmas is not cancelled and it would be inhuman to do so before cancelling Christmas a few days later and announcing more restrictions via twitter just before everyone goes to bed on the evening before a major religious festival.

But still, this is a remarkable level of incompetence. Then again perhaps the plan is to blame all the people who failed to follow the "clearly published" guidance if things do get out of hand to try and deflect any suggestion that it was the Governments fault.

I wouldn't take issue with any of that, only add that to the charge of incompetence must surely be added one of deliberate obfuscation by this government, whether it be by politicians, civil servants, 'advisors' or officials somewhere in the public realm, which amounts to a cover-up at least. To quietly change the message on an undated public website without contacting key people beforehand will be considered sneaky by those of the public who take a keen interest in these things (regrettably few, in my estimation.)

 

[Trackman]

The poster has the words 'Bolton Council' in the bottom right hand corner, so is probably from them.

It is, it's in the Councils typeface.

Local restrictions don't work as people who live in that area will go somewhere else.

Ie if non essential shops or indoor hospitality closed, nothing is stopping someone from one of the areas jumping on a train to somewhere where it's open.

Well, a couple from Bolton booked a hotel on the IOW, when they confirmed their address they were told they were not welcome.

 

[LAX54]

Well as of yesterday, 2.58% of all test conducted from the start were returned positive, with 0.27% of all tests resulting in hospitalisation, & 0.07% resulting in death. Now of course some people will have more than one test, with others having had none. But it does demonstrate that such mass testing is really OTT, and is a complete waste of money unless you are a data analyst.

and of that 2.58% how many had been vaccinated I wonder ?

 

[Darandio]

I would be interested how many of those have been offered and refused the vaccine?

Last week when the hospital count in Bolton was at 25 Hancock stated that the 'vast majority' had been offered and refused the vaccine.