The return of local restrictions/guidance

[Bantamzen]

and of that 2.58% how many had been vaccinated I wonder ?

I don't even know if that is recorded to be honest.

 

[Crossover]

Last week when the hospital count in Bolton was at 25 Hancock stated that the 'vast majority' had been offered and refused the vaccine.

And this is the problem - if people refuse the vaccines of their own volition, then they take the risk something may happen, and not heap it onto the general, weary, population

 

[LAX54]

I don't even know if that is recorded to be honest.

You are probably right, and the info if it was available, might be quite telling !

 

[nedchester]

Last week when the hospital count in Bolton was at 25 Hancock stated that the 'vast majority' had been offered and refused the vaccine.

That's tough then. The rest of us crack on with our lives.

 

[Bantamzen]

You are probably right, and the info if it was available, might be quite telling !

Well if 72.3% of adults have had at least one shot, there's a fairly good chance that many of the 170M+ tests will have covered vaccinated people by now.

 

[duncanp]

Well by now hospital workers will have been offered both doses, so their risk is greatly reduced. The same is true of most of the vulnerable people, indeed I'm not vulnerable & 51 but am only 2 weeks away from dose two. So that really only leaves the under 50s at risk in the coming weeks, and currently 32+ are being offered their first dose. So really the risk is only really present in the least vulnerable groups, and that risk is tiny.

This is the danger of turning of people not taking up the vaccine. No matter what you feel on a personal level, they are not generating anything like the kind of risk being touted. In a few more weeks the UK will have way over half the adult population protected, we have been at the forefront in developing treatments and we have even had a hand in the vaccination development / testing. I think it might be time to accept that we are coming over the worst, and people not choosing to have it are not the demons they are made out to be.

I don't think people should be forced to take the vaccine, nor do I think they should be refused treatment if they fall ill with COVID-19.

But then I also feel strongly that we should not be subject to any new restrictions, or suffer a delay in rolling back restrictions, if the increase in cases and/or hospitalisations is largely due to unvaccinated people.

There will always be some people who refuse the vaccine, but we should focus on getting as many people vaccinated as possible, to build up as high a level of immunity as possible.

This will ensure that any future "wave" of COVID-19 is at a manageable level, which is, when you think about it, how we deal with seasonal flu.

Some encouraging news from Bolton though, which I have already posted in the support conversation thread.

Bolton's Indian variant outbreak may have already peaked, No10 data

MailOnline's analysis of official figures show daily cases have plateaued in Bolton for the first time in a month following a period of exponential growth of the Indian variant in April and early May.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Bolton's Indian coronavirus variant outbreak may have already peaked, latest data from the Government's Covid dashboard suggests.

MailOnline's analysis of Department of Health figures show positive tests appear to have plateaued in the borough for the first time in a month, following a period of exponential growth fuelled by the mutant B.1.617.2 strain in April and early May.

Figures show Bolton's rolling seven-day average number of infections was about 177 on May 16, the most recent date for which data is available, down slightly on the 178 the previous day. Before that, infections had risen sharply every day since April 19, when there were just 17 positive tests each day, on average.


t came as ministers were lambasted by MPs today for imposing 'local lockdowns by the back door' after sneaking out advice against visiting Indian variant hotspots such as Bolton.

Advice 'sneaked' in without any announcement warned people against visiting the Greater Manchester town, as well as seven other areas where the mutant strain is spreading: Blackburn with Darwen, Kirklees, Bedford, Burnley, Leicester, Hounslow and North Tyneside.

Local councils blasted ministers for failing to inform them about the update, which appears to have been made on May 21. Meanwhile, Labour branded the shift in guidance 'upsetting and insulting'.

But facing the wrath of the Commons this afternoon, vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi insisted No10 had tried to 'communicate' with the affected authorities.

While Bolton — home to around 195,000 people — is still suffering the highest proportion of cases of anywhere in the country mainly because of the Indian variant, the fact the coronavirus is no longer growing rapidly suggests the town's outbreak may have already peaked.

It is possible, however, that the infection figures mark a one-day blip and that positive tests could rebound again. Further data confirming the trajectory of cases will be released this afternoon.

But Cambridge University epidemiologist Dr Raghib Ali told MailOnline the signs were 'encouraging' and Bolton's outbreak appeared to be 'plateauing'. He said locals appeared to be taking personal precautions.

In another promising sign for Bolton, the Government's Covid dashboard shows the town's test positivity rate has also been declining in recent days. Currently 5.9 per cent of all PCR swabs done in the borough are positive for Covid, according to data from May 19, down from a peak of 8.1 per cent a week earlier, on May 11.

That's despite almost four times more testing kits are being deployed in the Manchester town now than a month ago as part of a surge testing programme to stem the spread of the variant. Test positivity is one of the key indicators of how prevalent the disease is.

However, the promising figures come against the backdrop of climbing hospital rates in Bolton. Covid inpatient numbers have tripled in a fortnight and the Royal Bolton has asked patients to only attend A&E if it's absolutely necessary.

Health sources say there are currently 43 Covid patients across Bolton NHS Foundation Trust, compared to 12 who were receiving care on May 10. Experts fear pressure will only get worse because of how rapidly cases increased in the past month.

It takes several weeks for cases to turn into hospitalisations due to the lag between someone catching and falling seriously ill with Covid. However, Number 10 has said the 'majority' of people being hospitalised with the disease currently are either unvaccinated or have not been for both jabs.

The Bolton infection data is based on confirmed cases of coronavirus by specimen date, meaning the date the swab was taken rather than the date it was processed by laboratories.

There is a delay of around five days between swabs being taken and tested for the virus, leaving statisticians unable to calculate the infection rates until all swabs have been processed. This is why the most recent data provided by the Government only goes up to the middle of the month.

Dr Ali told MailOnline: 'It's encouraging to see that rates are not increasing in Bolton as quickly as before and there's a suggestion they might be flattening.

 

[brad465]

Perhaps it's just me but I'm actually more concerned by the Government seemingly deciding to bring in new guidance (possibly as long ago as 14 May in the case of Bolton), not tell anybody, at all, about this new guidance and when journalists finally spot the change in guidance the Government then deny that they've not told anyone despite me yet seeing mention of a single individual outside of the Government to have said anything other than some variation on "there's new local guidance?" occasionally with more swearing. This to include people who really should know about this sort of thing within local government and healthcare.

I suppose really I shouldn't be surprised at any level of incompetence and then flat denial of any such incompetence from this shower but still. This is quite a staggering level of incompetence. Especially as it seemed they'd managed to turn a corner with the fairly well considered step by step process we've been following out of lockdown so far (yes yes some people, many people probably, would prefer the timeline was faster but the structure being followed has been fairly sound and easy to understand so far).

Then again this is the same Government which includes such highlights as publishing the details of legally binding regulations minutes before they're due to take effect, saying Christmas is not cancelled and it would be inhuman to do so before cancelling Christmas a few days later and announcing more restrictions via twitter just before everyone goes to bed on the evening before a major religious festival.

But still, this is a remarkable level of incompetence. Then again perhaps the plan is to blame all the people who failed to follow the "clearly published" guidance if things do get out of hand to try and deflect any suggestion that it was the Governments fault.

I've seen some suggestions that the delay in making the guidance more widely known was to avoid a perceived u-turn, given it was only a few days earlier that step 3 was completed. It might be that publishing the guidance appeased some SAGE members at least temporarily, while waiting as long as possible without making this public helped avoid negative Government perceptions at a critical time.

 

[Darandio]

Some encouraging news from Bolton though, which I have already posted in the support conversation thread.

Not unexpected really. It also means we can have some relative calm in the media for the next couple of weeks until June 14th when the 'Johnson Variant' is announced.

 

[Bantamzen]

I don't think people should be forced to take the vaccine, nor do I think they should be refused treatment if they fall ill with COVID-19.

But then I also feel strongly that we should not be subject to any new restrictions, or suffer a delay in rolling back restrictions, if the increase in cases and/or hospitalisations is largely due to unvaccinated people.

There will always be some people who refuse the vaccine, but we should focus on getting as many people vaccinated as possible, to build up as high a level of immunity as possible.

This will ensure that any future "wave" of COVID-19 is at a manageable level, which is, when you think about it, how we deal with seasonal flu.

Some encouraging news from Bolton though, which I have already posted in the support conversation thread.

Bolton's Indian variant outbreak may have already peaked, No10 data

MailOnline's analysis of official figures show daily cases have plateaued in Bolton for the first time in a month following a period of exponential growth of the Indian variant in April and early May.

www.dailymail.co.uk

I don't disagree, there should be no delay to the final lifting of restrictions regardless of the take up. Its looking clear that well over 80% of the adult population will take it given where we are with them right now, so its reasonable to assume with the 18-31 year olds the take up will get well into the 80s at least. This is going to be more than enough to reduce the risk to the NHS, and so regardless of anyone not taking it up we should be getting back on with the job now.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Not unexpected really. It also means we can have some relative calm in the media for the next couple of weeks until June 14th when the 'Johnson Variant' is announced.

I doubt it. Articles appearing about Bolton hospitals filling up. And I've just noticed that over the weekend admission rates have gone up again so I'm sure the articles and hysteria will start soon.

 

[MikeWM]

For what it is worth, was just in Leicester, now on a train out... It didn’t seem any different to anywhere else I’ve been recently. Hopefully it stays that way!

 

[brad465]

Just prove how shambolic this has been handled so far, a separate statement from all affected councils are insisting no actual restrictions or local lockdowns exist right now:

Covid: Government backtracks over local travel advice after confusion

Restrictions are not being imposed on Indian variant-affected areas, the government says.

www.bbc.co.uk

Local councils worst-hit by the Indian coronavirus variant have insisted there are no restrictions on travel in their areas and "no local lockdowns".

There were complaints of confusion after the government updated guidance for Bolton, Blackburn, Kirklees, Bedford, Burnley, Leicester, Hounslow and North Tyneside.

The guidance asked people not to meet indoors or travel unnecessarily.

The councils said individuals could take "sensible" voluntary precautions.

A Downing Street source had earlier denied it was imposing local lockdowns by stealth when the advice was updated on 14 May and again on Friday without an announcement.

The prime minister's official spokesman said the government wanted to encourage the public "to exercise their good judgement", rather than issuing "top-down edicts".

In a joint statement, the eight local councils said: "We have met with national officials and confirmed there are no restrictions on travel in or out of each of our areas: there are no local lockdowns."

They said they are working to increase testing and vaccination and to support people self-isolating, adding "there are sensible public health precautions people can take as individuals in line with the sorts of advice we have all been following throughout the pandemic".

Greater Manchester's Labour mayor Andy Burnham said the confusion over the advice was a "major communications error" which had a "major effect on people's lives" and a government minister should issue a clarification.

Norma Redfearn, Labour mayor of North Tyneside, said "after a day of confusion" it had been confirmed the area was "at the same stage of the road map as the rest of the country".

 

[yorksrob]

At least Labour nationally are actively confronting this now.

 

[Watershed]

However they're still only doing so from a "this is confusing, the government is incompetent" perspective, not on the broader issue of "this isn't how to handle Covid".

I would be very surprised if Bolton etc. have all restrictions dropped come June 21st

 

[yorksrob]

However they're still only doing so from a "this is confusing, the government is incompetent" perspective, not on the broader issue of "this isn't how to handle Covid".

I would be very surprised if Bolton etc. have all restrictions dropped come June 21st

Yes. At least Burnham is making the point that local restrictions don't work, but then he's always been the one challenging the policy rather than its implementation.

 

[Andy Pacer]

Definitely seems to be some misunderstandings!

Covid: New government guidance for Leicester 'was incorrect'

Health bosses across England say there are no restrictions on travel in or out of their areas.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Ianno87]

Can't decide whether this is better or worse-handled than the time restrictions were announced 11pm the night before on Twitter....

 

[yorksrob]

Can't decide whether this is better or worse-handled than the time restrictions were announced 11pm the night before on Twitter....

I suppose they seem to be backtracking on these, which would be a better outcome IMO

 

[brad465]

Looking at some of the front pages tomorrow, they seem to suggest local lockdowns were planned but a climbdown was made:

 

[Kite159]

However they're still only doing so from a "this is confusing, the government is incompetent" perspective, not on the broader issue of "this isn't how to handle Covid".

I would be very surprised if Bolton etc. have all restrictions dropped come June 21st

Or to pull an U-turn demanding another nationwide lockdown as cases are rising and that Boris should do something yesterday

 

[yorksrob]

Hopefully the backlash against these planned local lockdowns and subsequent u-turn will put this policy beyond use once and for all.

 

[WelshBluebird]

It is true that you can ignore guidance. The problem with ignoring guidance on social contact is that it requires the person you are meeting or want to meet to also agree to ignore it. If you are OK meeting up indoors but your friend refuses to because they say the guidance is not to meet indoors then you can’t meet up indoors.

Is that really any difference to anywhere else right now? I know of friends in different parts of the country who are also more cautious about meeting others indoors at the moment, regardless of the "real" risk. That is entirely up to them. So I don't see how that is any different really!

The sanctimonious will use this guidance as an excuse for guilt tripping people for undertaking legal and safe activities.

The police, local councils etc. will no doubt parrot that you "must" not travel to/from the affected areas.

That literally has not been the case and isn't what is going on though.

And this is the problem - if people refuse the vaccines of their own volition, then they take the risk something may happen, and not heap it onto the general, weary, population

That thinking works fine if the chose made is totally isolated to that individual. But with COVID it obviously isn't and clearly does impact wider society (at the very least, a large enough number of people taking the risk and thus getting ill will impact hospitals etc). Hopefully we won't be in that situation because it does look like most people are willing to have the jab. But we would be having a very different conversation if say only 25% of people were agreeing to have it.

Hopefully the backlash against these planned local lockdowns and subsequent u-turn will put this policy beyond use once and for all.

There are no "planned local lockdowns" though. We aren't talking about lockdowns are restrictions. It was only ever just guidance and advise.

 

[yorksrob]

Is that really any difference to anywhere else right now? I know of friends in different parts of the country who are also more cautious about meeting others indoors at the moment, regardless of the "real" risk. That is entirely up to them. So I don't see how that is any different really!

That literally has not been the case and isn't what is going on though.

That thinking works fine if the chose made is totally isolated to that individual. But with COVID it obviously isn't and clearly does impact wider society (at the very least, a large enough number of people taking the risk and thus getting ill will impact hospitals etc). Hopefully we won't be in that situation because it does look like most people are willing to have the jab. But we would be having a very different conversation if say only 25% of people were agreeing to have it.

There are no "planned local lockdowns" though. We aren't talking about lockdowns are restrictions. It was only ever just guidance and advise.

Catching a bit of Jeremy Vine on the TV (always an eye opener to see the locktivist tendancies coming out of the woodwork) one of the commentators was saying that at one stage the government website was saying that the essential travel restrictions were "enforcable by law". This was apparently changed later on.

 

[Pakenhamtrain]

And so the cycle of freedom followed by lockdown begins again.

Make the most of this current time as it has a horrible feeling on inevitability that things are going to get worse.

We have been in and out of that a couple of time. We are stareing down the barrel of a lockdown again in Melbourne.
A leak from HQ from South Australia got into Victoria. 65 locations from contract tracing including 2 football games at Marvel and the zg.

 

[nlogax]

We have been in and out of that a couple of time. We are stareing down the barrel of a lockdown again in Melbourne.
A leak from HQ from South Australia got into Victoria. 65 locations from contract tracing including 2 football games at Marvel and the zg.

Add to that Australia having been sealed off from the rest of the world for a year with no viable exit plan. It's madness. Zero Covid as a strategy is effectively condemning this vicious cycle to continue. It's no way to run a country in the long term - and this coming from me who lives on a relatively small island run by a circus clown.

 

[Silver Cobra]

It is beginning to look like a repeat of last year. A few local areas placed under restrictions, which gradually spread until it's most of the country, followed by another national lockdown. I do hope I'm wrong, but it has me worried.

That's my concern as well, especially after seeing the increase in cases today. While I understand that the link between cases and hospitalisations/deaths is largely broken, knowing the track record of our government, it won't take much to scare them into the idea of the need for increased restrictions or even another national lockdown. As such, I'm now rather worried that, if the increase in cases continues, the summer could be a 'washout' due to the reintroduction of restrictions or another lockdown.

Granted, a lot of my concern/worry is probably due to me being quite a pessimistic person (like when I said I was expecting the 17th May easings to be cancelled at the last minute, but was thankfully wrong).

 

[LAX54]

Add to that Australia having been sealed off from the rest of the world for a year with no viable exit plan. It's madness. Zero Covid as a strategy is effectively condemning this vicious cycle to continue. It's no way to run a country in the long term - and this coming from me who lives on a relatively small island run by a circus clown.

The Melbourne rise in infections, which is in a Country almost sealed off from the rest of the world for over a year, does this not indicate, that no matter what you do, it will find a way in sooner or later, a sort of ..you can run, but you can't hide ?

 

[Bantamzen]

The Melbourne rise in infections, which is in a Country almost sealed off from the rest of the world for over a year, does this not indicate, that no matter what you do, it will find a way in sooner or later, a sort of ..you can run, but you can't hide ?

Quite a few countries that pursued severe border controls and/or lockdowns early are now seeing rising in infection rates. It shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

 

[LAX54]

Quite a few countries that pursued severe border controls and/or lockdowns early are now seeing rising in infection rates. It shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

Not a surprise at all, but it maybe or will be for all those that say the borders should be closed ufn, and it will just go away !

 

[Cdd89]

The Melbourne rise in infections, which is in a Country almost sealed off from the rest of the world for over a year, does this not indicate, that no matter what you do, it will find a way in sooner or later, a sort of ..you can run, but you can't hide ?

It should also be instructive as to what would happen to us if we adopted “tough border policies” to “keep out variants”, as Labour keep pushing for.

Inevitably, the hypothetical variant will leak from even the toughest border controls. Australia reacts to this regular event by stamping it out, which they can do because it is not that widely-seeded, and for them any Covid case is one for elimination. We on the other hand have relatively high and widely-seeded background levels of Covid. There is no way for us to stamp out the variant that inevitably leaks from our “Australia style border policy”; we can’t even identify the variant until long after the horse has bolted.

I see this argument over borders being one of the biggest long tail elements of this pandemic and it should be patently obvious how pointless it is, while at the same time being incredibly damaging.