The return of local restrictions/guidance

[Bantamzen]

Not a surprise at all, but it maybe or will be for all those that say the borders should be closed ufn, and it will just go away !

I think that's what some countries hoped for, slam their doors shut and let the rest of the world deal with it. What is also notable is a number of these same countries were quite slow to procure vaccines for their citizens, and now lie some way behind some others.

 

[LAX54]

It should also be instructive as to what would happen to us if we adopted “tough border policies” to “keep out variants”, as Labour keep pushing for.

Inevitably, the hypothetical variant will leak from even the toughest border controls. Australia reacts to this regular event by stamping it out, which they can do because it is not that widely-seeded, and for them any Covid case is one for elimination. We on the other hand have relatively high and widely-seeded background levels of Covid. There is no way for us to stamp out the variant that inevitably leaks from our “Australia style border policy”; we can’t even identify the variant until long after the horse has bolted.

I see this argument over borders being one of the biggest long tail elements of this pandemic and it should be patently obvious how pointless it is, while at the same time being incredibly damaging.

Which of course is why all these people demanding that the Airports are closed to this country, that country, and no one should be allowed in, and no direct flights, is just pointless, overheard a conversation in a Tesco Express a few days ago, they were talking, quite loudly, about banning flights from India 'to keep it out', the other person, said, well 'what if they have come via Amsterdam or Dublin' ? to which the response was..... "Well that's different isn't it " !

 

[yorksrob]

It should also be instructive as to what would happen to us if we adopted “tough border policies” to “keep out variants”, as Labour keep pushing for.

Inevitably, the hypothetical variant will leak from even the toughest border controls. Australia reacts to this regular event by stamping it out, which they can do because it is not that widely-seeded, and for them any Covid case is one for elimination. We on the other hand have relatively high and widely-seeded background levels of Covid. There is no way for us to stamp out the variant that inevitably leaks from our “Australia style border policy”; we can’t even identify the variant until long after the horse has bolted.

I see this argument over borders being one of the biggest long tail elements of this pandemic and it should be patently obvious how pointless it is, while at the same time being incredibly damaging.

Yes and no.

It is obvious as you say, that varients will get in one way or another. However it would have been better for us if this particular one had been kept in limited numbers for a bit longer while the vaccination programme progresses.

 

[Silver Cobra]

It didn't take long for the subject of Covid Vaccination Certificates to surface again as a means of 'removing restrictions' (quote is from the BBC Live page, so I'll add a link to an article later if one comes up):

Gove: Covid certificates could be used from step four​

Michael Gove says that Covid certification could make venues safer but says there is a balance and that "you can never make every venue completely safe".
"What it does is dramatically reduce the risk," he says. "If one can have confidence that people in a venue have been vaccinated or have immunity in another way or have a valid test then you can know that that venue is safer."
He says set against that is the question of cost and the "hassle factor", so there has to be a balance.
Gove says Covid certification could be introduced in stage four of the road map - scheduled for 21 June - although he says there is no "ironclad" link.
He uses the example of fans attending football matches for how a certificate might be used.
"If it is the case that we want to see the restoration of Premier League football, which I certainly do, then in order for that to happen we would want to have, and indeed Premier League teams would also want to have, their stadia full to maximum capacity," he says.
"Certification may play a role in that if the alternative were, for example, to continue with social distancing and other forms of restrictions such as crowd capacity limits."

 

[Pakenhamtrain]

.

The Melbourne rise in infections, which is in a Country almost sealed off from the rest of the world for over a year, does this not indicate, that no matter what you do, it will find a way in sooner or later, a sort of ..you can run, but you can't hide ?

In our case the start of it was from a leak in HQ in South Australia. Apparently they never learned the lessons we learned in lockdown 3 about how it transmits when you open and close doors quickly.
That person traveled into Victoria and set it off. There's an unknown link between this person and another(known as case 5). Case 5 gave it to Case 1 and off it went.
100 plus places are on the contract tracing list including two AFL games.

Oddly enough even a public toilet is on the list.

I can tell you know people are pissed off this time around. We're all angry we are here again, we're all angry at the Federal Government for the shambolic vaccine rollout and them cowering from thier responsibility in quarantine.
On the vaccine rollout last week we had 8000 odd jabs done. On Tuesday this week 15000.

Tonight is the top of the table clash in the AFL between Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne. 0 fans in attendance. If it was last week it would have easily hit the 85 percent capacity.

 

[LAX54]

I see there is a 'new' varient in the UK now, some 100 cases of a THAI version !

The variant, known as VUI-21MAY-02 (C.36.3), was first detected in Thailand in people who had travelled from Egypt, Public Health England (PHE) has confirmed.

There have now been 109 cases detected in the UK, PHE said in an update.

Who will be first to hit the panic button ?

 

[Bantamzen]

I see there is a 'new' varient in the UK now, some 100 cases of a THAI version !

The variant, known as VUI-21MAY-02 (C.36.3), was first detected in Thailand in people who had travelled from Egypt, Public Health England (PHE) has confirmed.

There have now been 109 cases detected in the UK, PHE said in an update.

Who will be first to hit the panic button ?

Sky News Breaking in 3...2...1...

 

[Silver Cobra]

A third straight day in a row of increased cases, and now back above 4,000 again, and hospitalisations are on the increase too. This really is starting to worry me a lot regarding what the government will do in relation to delaying the June 21st easing or even reintroducing restrictions. I know I already said this in this thread, but I can see us being under a national lockdown through July and August, as the calls for the delay to easing by the likes of Independent SAGE and such right now will change to calls for a lockdown if these increases continue.

 

[joncombe]

A third straight day in a row of increased cases, and now back above 4,000 again, and hospitalisations are on the increase too. This really is starting to worry me a lot regarding what the government will do in relation to delaying the June 21st easing or even reintroducing restrictions. I know I already said this in this thread, but I can see us being under a national lockdown through July and August, as the calls for the delay to easing by the likes of Independent SAGE and such right now will change to calls for a lockdown if these increases continue.

Likewise. There were warnings that cases are rising quickly in Birmingham and Dundee too. Plus a mention earlier that it's estimated the "R Rate" is above 1, which is usually enough to send the Government into a panic.

 

[nedchester]

A third straight day in a row of increased cases, and now back above 4,000 again, and hospitalisations are on the increase too. This really is starting to worry me a lot regarding what the government will do in relation to delaying the June 21st easing or even reintroducing restrictions. I know I already said this in this thread, but I can see us being under a national lockdown through July and August, as the calls for the delay to easing by the likes of Independent SAGE and such right now will change to calls for a lockdown if these increases continue.

Cases are bound to increase with more socialisation. Also hospital occupancy is actually down 889 (above 900 yesterday). It depends also on the nature of the hospital admissions (age, vaccination status etc).

With nearly 25 million having received the second dose the chances of another lockdown are tiny.

 

[adc82140]

A third straight day in a row of increased cases, and now back above 4,000 again, and hospitalisations are on the increase too. This really is starting to worry me a lot regarding what the government will do in relation to delaying the June 21st easing or even reintroducing restrictions. I know I already said this in this thread, but I can see us being under a national lockdown through July and August, as the calls for the delay to easing by the likes of Independent SAGE and such right now will change to calls for a lockdown if these increases continue.

Hospitalisations are down. Including in Bolton. Not sure where you're getting your figures from. Take no notice of admission figures, the ones to look at are people in hospital, and those ventilated. They continue to fall.

There will be no new lockdown. The vaccines work. The worst that'll happen is procrastination over June 21st.

 

[joncombe]

Hospitalisations are down. Including in Bolton. Not sure where you're getting your figures from. Take no notice of admission figures, the ones to look at are people in hospital, and those ventilated. They continue to fall.

There will be no new lockdown. The vaccines work. The worst that'll happen is procrastination over June 21st.

This article bothers me. To quote

In Bolton - which has the highest case numbers in the UK - the vast majority of hospital patients are not fully vaccinated and most cases are in people who are not, or who only just became eligible to have the jab.

Nationally, the number of patients in hospital has continued falling.

But in the North West, which is particularly affected by the B.1.617.2 variant, hospital admissions are starting to go up.

So it does suggest hospital admissions in the whole north west have begun to increase even if they are still going down nationally.

The graph for cases in Bolton shows a peak almost as high as October, though it looks to have plateaued now.

So it does worry me there might be local restrictions in Bolton and we know how that ended up last year.

 

[chris11256]

A third straight day in a row of increased cases, and now back above 4,000 again, and hospitalisations are on the increase too. This really is starting to worry me a lot regarding what the government will do in relation to delaying the June 21st easing or even reintroducing restrictions. I know I already said this in this thread, but I can see us being under a national lockdown through July and August, as the calls for the delay to easing by the likes of Independent SAGE and such right now will change to calls for a lockdown if these increases continue.

I know what you mean, the main thing is that vaccination has or should have broken the link between infections and intensive care & death. Ultimately we need to speed up vaccination rather than wind back restrictions.

 

[ainsworth74]

I can't see a further lockdown absent something going catastrophically wrong like a variant which is resistant to our vaccines.

With restrictions being eased we would expect to see cases increase this in itself shouldn't be worrying. The thing to keep an eye on is hospitalisations and then deaths. At the moment deaths are mercifully very low and hospitalisations are also not at an especially concerning level either.

Of course we see how things develop. Personally I could see 21 June being pushed back by a week or two or being watered down with a further date for additional easing for things postponed.

I think the worst case scenario, at the moment anyway, would be June 21 postponed and perhaps a slight increase in restrictions such as indoor hospitality being closed again or restricted to household/bubbles. I can't really see anything more significant than that being introduced unless we have a variant arrive which is vaccine resistant.

 

[Simon11]

Hopefully better weather will also make a big difference!

 

[Class 33]

A third straight day in a row of increased cases, and now back above 4,000 again, and hospitalisations are on the increase too. This really is starting to worry me a lot regarding what the government will do in relation to delaying the June 21st easing or even reintroducing restrictions. I know I already said this in this thread, but I can see us being under a national lockdown through July and August, as the calls for the delay to easing by the likes of Independent SAGE and such right now will change to calls for a lockdown if these increases continue.

Whilst it's unfortunately at this stage looking likely that Johnson will decide to go and delay 21st June because of this darn Indian variant currently messing things up a bit, there is no way things will get so bad that there will be yet another full national lockdown. The vaccines are stopping hospitalizations and deaths surging upwards out of control. Whilst these figures are currently up a bit, I think they'll level out and head back down within the next week or so.

Try to avoid checking the TV and online news. They're probably going into mass panic and hysteria mode again at the moment, making out the situation is a lot worst than it actually is. Does not do anyone any good viewing all this. Since I saw the cases had gone up a lot yesterday, I've decided to avoid the media for the time being as I know they'll be making a great overblown fuss about it all.

 

[Jonny]

A third straight day in a row of increased cases, and now back above 4,000 again, and hospitalisations are on the increase too. This really is starting to worry me a lot regarding what the government will do in relation to delaying the June 21st easing or even reintroducing restrictions. I know I already said this in this thread, but I can see us being under a national lockdown through July and August, as the calls for the delay to easing by the likes of Independent SAGE and such right now will change to calls for a lockdown if these increases continue.

Perhaps it should be called "unofficial SAGE" rather than Independent SAGE, and its members include a ^race advisor^.

Independent Sage expert who warned against reopening is race adviser with no medical qualification

Dr Zubaida Haque also criticised Matt Hancock for his comments on vaccine hesitancy

www.telegraph.co.uk

(article paywalled but IMO the title says it all).

Why does unofficial oops I meant independent SAGE even need someone who considers their expertise to be a "Race Advisor"?

 

[adc82140]

Perhaps it should be called "unofficial SAGE" rather than Independent SAGE, and its members include a ^race advisor^.

Independent Sage expert who warned against reopening is race adviser with no medical qualification

Dr Zubaida Haque also criticised Matt Hancock for his comments on vaccine hesitancy

www.telegraph.co.uk

(article paywalled but IMO the title says it all).

Why does unofficial oops I meant independent SAGE even need someone who considers their expertise to be a "Race Advisor"?

Pretend SAGE is more appropriate.

 

[joncombe]

Perhaps it should be called "unofficial SAGE" rather than Independent SAGE, and its members include a ^race advisor^.

Independent Sage expert who warned against reopening is race adviser with no medical qualification

Dr Zubaida Haque also criticised Matt Hancock for his comments on vaccine hesitancy

www.telegraph.co.uk

(article paywalled but IMO the title says it all).

Why does unofficial oops I meant independent SAGE even need someone who considers their expertise to be a "Race Advisor"?

Why do they even exists at all? Why does the media give them so much coverage? It feels like a bunch of scientists that couldn't get into SAGE so set up their own group to lobby the press, perhaps in the hope they will get confused with the real SAGE?

 

[seagull]

Hospital admissions will increase anyway thanks to a huge backlog of undiagnosed and untreated illnesses which is now coming to haunt the NHS.

 

[Silver Cobra]

Hospitalisations are down. Including in Bolton. Not sure where you're getting your figures from. Take no notice of admission figures, the ones to look at are people in hospital, and those ventilated. They continue to fall.

There will be no new lockdown. The vaccines work. The worst that'll happen is procrastination over June 21st.

Yeah, I was looking at the hospital admissions on the Coronavirus dashboard. My mistake there.

I understand a lot of you here will say I'm worried/panicking over nothing at this stage, but knowing the track record of our government and the extra scrutiny being placed on them as a result of the Dominic Cummings affair, that's what makes me worried that they'll jump on doing something if the numbers keep going up for too long and the calls from outside sources become too loud.

Try to avoid checking the TV and online news. They're probably going into mass panic and hysteria mode again at the moment, making out the situation is a lot worst than it actually is. Does not do anyone any good viewing all this. Since I saw the cases had gone up a lot yesterday, I've decided to avoid the media for the time being as I know they'll be making a great overblown fuss about it all.

As much as I've done my best to avoid TV news over the last 14-15 months (which stems from avoiding them during the whole Brexit fiasco), I have a terrible habit of constantly looking at the BBC News website and the government Coronavirus dashboard. I really should stop looking at those, but a combination of anxiety and OCD keep me doing it.

 

[yorksrob]

Perhaps it should be called "unofficial SAGE" rather than Independent SAGE, and its members include a ^race advisor^.

Independent Sage expert who warned against reopening is race adviser with no medical qualification

Dr Zubaida Haque also criticised Matt Hancock for his comments on vaccine hesitancy

www.telegraph.co.uk

(article paywalled but IMO the title says it all).

Why does unofficial oops I meant independent SAGE even need someone who considers their expertise to be a "Race Advisor"?

Ah yes, she was wheeled out onto the Jeremy Vine show this afternoon. I wouldn't trust any of Provisional SAGE (or whatever they're called) to run a whelk stall.

 

[big_rig]

Perhaps it should be called "unofficial SAGE" rather than Independent SAGE, and its members include a ^race advisor^.

Independent Sage expert who warned against reopening is race adviser with no medical qualification

Dr Zubaida Haque also criticised Matt Hancock for his comments on vaccine hesitancy

www.telegraph.co.uk

(article paywalled but IMO the title says it all).

Why does unofficial oops I meant independent SAGE even need someone who considers their expertise to be a "Race Advisor"?

Ha. I have seen this person all over Twitter (do none of the Wannabe SAGE's employers mind that they spend all day on Twitter, by the way?) and wondered what on earth it is that they do for a job. The rest of that lot at least publicise that they are wholly unqualified to speak on the matter (e.g the army of psychologists, 'professors of public health' etc on their team), but this persons biography was always quite cryptic. I guess it shows why!

 

[takno]

Ah yes, she was wheeled out onto the Jeremy Vine show this afternoon. I wouldn't trust any of Provisional SAGE (or whatever they're called) to run a whelk stall.

I believe they prefer to be called Continuity SAGE these days. It really has got quite desperate for the media when they have to trot out the lunatic fringe of the lunatic fringe. The only person from Real SAGE who wants to comment is Andrew Hayward, a mathematician who is desperately trying to prevent reopening because he has a model showing that thousands will die by lunchtime if we don't stay locked down, and he's starting to look a tiny bit stupid.

 

[johnnychips]

Why does unofficial oops I meant independent SAGE even need someone who considers their expertise to be a "Race Advisor"?

If people see someone coming towards them coughing, this expert can advise them of the quickest way to escape. I’ll get me coat.

 

[philosopher]

I can't see a further lockdown absent something going catastrophically wrong like a variant which is resistant to our vaccines.

With restrictions being eased we would expect to see cases increase this in itself shouldn't be worrying. The thing to keep an eye on is hospitalisations and then deaths. At the moment deaths are mercifully very low and hospitalisations are also not at an especially concerning level either.

Of course we see how things develop. Personally I could see 21 June being pushed back by a week or two or being watered down with a further date for additional easing for things postponed.

What concerns me is that the 21st June easing goes ahead on schedule, but it only involves the removal of gathering restrictions and the reopening of the few remaining sectors of the economy that are still closed such as nightclubs. Test and trace, social distancing, pubs being table service only, working from home advice, masks, etc therefore all remain after the 21st June effectively meaning nothing very much changes.

I would actually prefer it if step four of the roadmap got delayed if it meant step four involved some more significant changes.

 

[johnnychips]

I moved house about a year ago; I still can’t get a new doctor or dentist; the one medical problem I had was fortunately solved by me ringing up the wrong hospital department. We need to get back to normal as soon as possible.

 

[dave87016]

Wish bumbling Boris would make his mind up , one day he’s increasingly confident that 21st June will go ahead the next its hanging in the balance the next day surprise surprise he’s increasingly confident again and the next its back to hanging in the balance and so forth

I can’t help but think boris and his cronies had already decided that local lockdowns will occur in the prevalent areas where Indian variant is concerning they got found out and denied it then removed it but come June they probably will be in local lockdowns

Even once things go back to normal there’s always the risk a new variant will enter the country does that mean everytime one days we go into local or national lockdowns?

The goverments new mantra should be “ Maximum BS minimum transparency “ because that’s what they done throughout the pandemic

 

[duncanp]

What concerns me is that the 21st June easing goes ahead on schedule, but it only involves the removal of gathering restrictions and the reopening of the few remaining sectors of the economy that are still closed such as nightclubs. Test and trace, social distancing, pubs being table service only, working from home advice, masks, etc therefore all remain after the 21st June effectively meaning nothing very much changes.

I would actually prefer it if step four of the roadmap got delayed if it meant step four involved some more significant changes.

Some papers are reporting that the government is considering which restrictions should be lifted first, in the event that data shows that Stage 4 cannot go ahead as planned. (See my post in the support conversation thread)

The good news is that the government is prioritising the scrapping of social distancing and the "rule of six" indoors, in order to help the hospitality sector get back to normal. This would also enable families to meet up more widely, and enable festivals and events to go ahead in the summer. I would imagine that test & trace for pubs will remain, but the rule about table service only is scrapped.

The bad news is that compulsory masks on public transport and in shops may stay for a little while longer, although as I said compliance and enforcement of the rules is dropping to such an extent that they are effectively optional in some settings.

This might not be what some people want to hear, but personally I would much rather that there is some easing of restrictions on 21st June than nothing at all.

A lot depends on whether the current increase in cases nationally has started to plateau by 14th June, when a final decision regarding what happens on the 21st has to be made. If cases have started to come down again, and hospitalisations are at manageable levels, I think it will mean that more restrictions can be lifted.

The good news is that the government doesn't appear to be listening to the locktivists at Fake SAGE who are calling for everything to be postponed for a couple of months.

 

[Tracked]

Perhaps it should be called "unofficial SAGE" rather than Independent SAGE

What about "ONION"? (Of No Importance On Nothing, if you like acronyms).