Theresa May calls General Election on 8th June.

[me123]

Will be interesting to see what happens here. The SNP hold Glasgow East with a comfortable margin and I think Labour would struggle to pull through. However, if Ms McGarry stands in Glasgow East as a rival independent, she could split the vote (not likely, Glasgow East will vote on party colours and not individuals, but possible).

Edinburgh West will be a prime Lib Dem target, with Ms Thomson's deselection debacle perhaps pushing voters away from the SNP. Likely to be a seat that the SNP lose I'd say. They'll do well if they hold it.

 

[backontrack]

Will be interesting to see what happens here. The SNP hold Glasgow East with a comfortable margin and I think Labour would struggle to pull through. However, if Ms McGarry stands in Glasgow East as a rival independent, she could split the vote (not likely, Glasgow East will vote on party colours and not individuals, but possible).

Edinburgh West will be a prime Lib Dem target, with Ms Thomson's deselection debacle perhaps pushing voters away from the SNP. Likely to be a seat that the SNP lose I'd say. They'll do well if they hold it.

I'd say the SNP are most likely to lose Roxburgh.

 

[Butts]

I'd say the SNP are most likely to lose Roxburgh.

I take it you mean Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk with it's 328 majority over the Conservatives.

Remember just to complicate matters further it was Liberal before 2015.

 

[Jonny]

Will be interesting to see what happens here. The SNP hold Glasgow East with a comfortable margin and I think Labour would struggle to pull through. However, if Ms McGarry stands in Glasgow East as a rival independent, she could split the vote (not likely, Glasgow East will vote on party colours and not individuals, but possible).

Edinburgh West will be a prime Lib Dem target, with Ms Thomson's deselection debacle perhaps pushing voters away from the SNP. Likely to be a seat that the SNP lose I'd say. They'll do well if they hold it.

I would have thought that McGarry sounds pretty Scottish though. That would bode against anyone else trying to play on being Scottish...

 

[317 forever]

There will be a lot of UKIP votes up for grabs in a lot of constituencies.

Indeed, as they are extremely unlikely to match their 13% vote share. The easiest Conservative gain will be Clacton now that Douglas Carswell in standing down.

 

[317 forever]

Ahem!

I've never revisited my previous posts, and have no intention of doing so now, but I do recollect engaging in debate on this forum after the 2015 General Election, making the following points, for which I don't remember any support. Some of those with whom I crossed swords (ever so politely, of course!) are still posting on here. My main points were:-

1) Regardless of the Referendum vote, there would be enough opposition from the losing side to ensure that a General Election would have to be called within a few months of the result. I do remember saying that it could just be in 2018 but much more likely in 2017. At the time I happily admit that I thought it would be the Tory leavers and UKIP whingeing about the 'Yes' majority that swung it!

2) I decried the Fixed Term Parliaments Act that was rushed through after the Election as cynical and unconstitutional, and also pointed out (to unanimous opposition here) that it would NOT prevent a government calling a General Election just when it fancied. The government would just treat the FTPA as an irritant to be swatted away when necessary. QED.

To the here and now. I got round to reading my local (Cornish) weekly paper this p.m. five days after publication. An article was headlined about why May wouldn't call a snap election, and referred to the resurgence of the LibDems in the South West based on polls conducted by Tory research. There followed a series of reasons given by a Plymouth Tory MP as to why there wouldn't and couldn't be a snap election, so that any 'temporary' resurgence of the LibDems would have disappeared by the time of the actual election!

So what happens if we get a re-run (apart from Scotland) of the 2010 election result? The LibDems obviously can't go into coalition again, and Labour without those Scottish seats will be in no position to take office. It could be chaos. Hard Brexit might just then be off the agenda though, for which I for one would be eternally grateful.

Oh, has Nigel Farage announced his position yet? I take it he'll be UKIP leader again by the end of the week. and standing as a candidate somewhere again. Arron Banks can get his wish to fight Carswell in Clacton, and might just get his deposit back.

If Scotland replicates 2015 and the rest of the country replicates 2010, the outcome in addition to the 18 Northern Ireland seats would be:-

Conservative 307
Labour 218
Liberal Democrat 47
SNP 56
Green 1
Plaid Cymru

So, probably another Conservative / LibDem coalition, even though the Libems would only be the 4th largest party. Being in 4th place was sufficient for them to join Labour in coalition in the Scottish Parliament from 1999 to 2007 though.

 

[317 forever]

It seems a fair amount of Scots want to stay in the EU but don't necessarily want another independence referendum, so the Lib Dems may make a few gains.

It will be interesting but I think we seem to all agree that 'alt-right' (far right) populists (UKIP etc) seem to be all but gone at the moment so that's not a bad start.

I think the LibDems will easily win East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West and maybe Fife North East. In East Dunbartonshire Jo Swinson had a lower than average adverse swing and was little if at all tainted by their role in national government. In Edinburgh West they won the seat back at Holyrood, while the SNP MP Michelle Thomson has been suspended and will not be their candidate this time. Fife North East was also won back by the LibDems at Holyrood last year.

 

[317 forever]

I imagine that the Lib Dems and Greens are looking to overturn the result of the EU referendum, the SNP are looking to overturn the result of the 2014 Scotland referendum, and Labour will be looking to overturn the result of the 2013 Falklands referendum.

On June 9th Labour will look to overturn the result of the 2017 General Election.

 

[317 forever]

Go Green! It's better than spoiling your ballot paper, and Caroline Lucas is probably the most principled and decent MP in the country.

Indeed, the more disillusioned voters do vote Green instead of spoiling their paper or abstaining, the more seats they could get.

 

[317 forever]

Some of you may want to investigate vote-swapping.

Let's say that you are a Labour voter in a safe Labour Seat (e.g. West Ham).
Your vote will not alter the outcome in your constituency, so you advertise that you are willing to swap your vote.
I live in a Tory marginal, and want the Tory MP out. I would normally vote Lib Dem (or ANOther party) but my party is likely to finish third or worse.
So, you vote for the Lib Dem (or ANOther) in your safe Labour seat. Labour still win.
I vote Labour in my Tory marginal and enough of us do so, that the Tory is unseated.

While any vote swapping agreement between any 2 voters is not legally binding, it can influence outcomes. In 1997 there were rumours of Labour voters in Kingston & Surbiton agreeing to swap votes with LibDem voters in adjacent Wimbledon. On the night both parties defeated the Conservative candidates.

 

[317 forever]

Lib Dem MP John Pugh is to retire from politics. Conservative veteran Ken Clarke is to stand for election despite saying he would retire at the next election.

In Ken's case i think he was prepared to retire in 2020 but did not feel like leaving yet. I reckon he will stand down in 2022 now.

 

[317 forever]

No matter which political party it is, there will always be members and MPs who don't like the current leader. There's no doubt in my mind that there's plenty of Tory, UKIP and Lib Dem voters who don't like their respective party leaders either.

Tim Farron refusing to rule out a coalition with the Tories has just lost them my potential vote, seeing as I was actually considering voting for them this time around. He clearly hasn't learned what going into coalition with the Tories did to his party's support last time around.

That just leaves the Green Party, Labour or an Independent candidate (if one stands in my constistuency) in the running for my vote now.

In case your Liverpool constituency is Riverside, the Greens came 2nd there in 2010!

 

[telstarbox]

Although a very distant 2nd (and also in Sheffield Central and one of the Manchester seats).

 

[Yew]

Sure Keynesian theory is a good way to describe the economy, but it falls down somewhat when used as a planning tool. It is what caused Britain to fall into the recession of the 1970s.

Whilst having a veneer of fairness and stimulus, it is anything but fair. It creates an environment that deters saving and conventional forms of investment; it also deters taking necessary risks and even doing more than the bare minimum. In fact, it merely spreads inefficiency and misery.

In excessive quantities, perhaps, byt remember the main trigger for the 1970's problems were related to the oil crisis. But considering the state of the manufacturing industries and our infrastructure, it's high time for some investment to reinvigorate our economy, and move us from some sort of finance-sector zombie!

 

[telstarbox]

Tim Farron has ruled out coalitions with either Labour or Conservatives - does anyone believe him? If they get 30 or 40 seats then the offer to be back in government would be too good to refuse surely?

 

[me123]

I would have thought that McGarry sounds pretty Scottish though. That would bode against anyone else trying to play on being Scottish...

I'm not entirely sure what you're on about here? What on earth does her name have to do with anything?

 

[me123]

I think the LibDems will easily win East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West and maybe Fife North East. In East Dunbartonshire Jo Swinson had a lower than average adverse swing and was little if at all tainted by their role in national government. In Edinburgh West they won the seat back at Holyrood, while the SNP MP Michelle Thomson has been suspended and will not be their candidate this time. Fife North East was also won back by the LibDems at Holyrood last year.

I think you're probably bang on here. The SNP's support hasn't really dwindled in the last two years. I think they will lose a few seats, in part due to unionist voters voting tactically against the SNP rather than relating to a surge in support for any one other party, but on the whole will stay at the c50 seat level.

Edinburgh West will almost certainly swing back to Lib Dem. Not so certain about the others, but it's certainly not unlikely. Will be a close fought race.

I'm not convinced Labour will make a return in Scotland. Their heartlands are now solid SNP yellow and it would take something as miraculous as the 2015 referendum to reverse this. I'd imagine that Edinburgh South (their only remaining seat) could even be at risk - Ian Murray ain't a great MP and really seems like one of the most unlikeable politicians from what I've seen of him (which is impressive given the competition). A Lib-Dem resurgence could actually dilute the unionist vote here and hand the seat to the SNP.

I can absolutely foresee a situation wherein Labour win no seats in Scotland, are pushed into fourth place and become even more of an irrelevance.

 

[Butts]

I think you're probably bang on here. The SNP's support hasn't really dwindled in the last two years. I think they will lose a few seats, in part due to unionist voters voting tactically against the SNP rather than relating to a surge in support for any one other party, but on the whole will stay at the c50 seat level.

Edinburgh West will almost certainly swing back to Lib Dem. Not so certain about the others, but it's certainly not unlikely. Will be a close fought race.

I'm not convinced Labour will make a return in Scotland. Their heartlands are now solid SNP yellow and it would take something as miraculous as the 2015 referendum to reverse this. I'd imagine that Edinburgh South (their only remaining seat) could even be at risk - Ian Murray ain't a great MP and really seems like one of the most unlikeable politicians from what I've seen of him (which is impressive given the competition). A Lib-Dem resurgence could actually dilute the unionist vote here and hand the seat to the SNP.

I can absolutely foresee a situation wherein Labour win no seats in Scotland, are pushed into fourth place and become even more of an irrelevance.

Speaking as a Conservative that is indeed a sad prospect for Democracy in Alba. A "One Party" state is undesirable for all progressive democrats. I seriously hope there is a shift in the balance of power reducing the SNP hegemony bringing back Labour, Liberal and Conservative representation.

 

[pemma]

More election news

A Labour government would seek to create four new UK-wide bank holidays, Jeremy Corbyn says.

The holidays would be on each nation's patron saint day - St David's Day on 1 March, St Patrick's Day on 17 March, St George's Day on 23 April and St Andrew's Day on 30 November.

Mr Corbyn believes the move would "celebrate the national cultures of our proud nations".

Labour says the UK has fewer bank holidays than other G20 countries.

Normally, England and Wales have eight bank holidays a year, Scotland nine, and Northern Ireland 10. Labour says the average for G20 countries is 12.

Elsewhere in the election campaign:
The Conservatives are reportedly planning to limit the gas and electricity bills of 20 million people on standard variable tariffs if they are returned to office. Under the proposals, energy regulator Ofgem would cap the deals, which are among the most expensive offered by suppliers

Tory party chairman Sir Patrick McLoughlin has criticised Jeremy Corbyn's record on security, saying he could not take the "difficult decisions" necessary in the event of a terrorist attack. "The man is not suitable to become prime minister of this country," he told The Sunday Telegraph

Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron has ruled out a coalition with either Labour or the Conservatives. He told the Observer: "We will not be doing any king of deal, any kind of coalition, any kind of arrangement."

The UK Independence Party is expected to pledge a ban on the full-face veils worn by some Muslim women in its manifesto on Monday

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39682388

A few points with Corbyn's Bank Holiday idea:
1. It would need to be in conjunction with changing the legislation that requires employers to give a minimum of 28 days off a year for full time workers, otherwise we could end up with Bank Holidays when most people are working.
2. Phasing in extra Bank Holidays would normally sense. However, I can see objections if St David's Day was made a Bank Holiday 2 years after St Patrick's Day.
3. It would make sense to move one of the May Bank Holidays to later in the year, otherwise there would be a total of 6 Bank Holidays during March, April and May and quite a few months without any.

 

[me123]

Speaking as a Conservative that is indeed a sad prospect for Democracy in Alba. A "One Party" state is undesirable for all progressive democrats. I seriously hope there is a shift in the balance of power reducing the SNP hegemony bringing back Labour, Liberal and Conservative representation.

I don't think it's sad to lose Labour. I certainly think we need multiple parties, but we do have a political rainbow in Scotland. It's just not reflected in the FPTP Westminster system because it's a crap system. Holyrood is a much better representation of Scotland due to the PR system in place, and demonstrates that Scotland is most certainly not a one party state.

Scottish Labour have achieved little to nothing in the last ten years, and they continue to have an arrogance about them. They were not great in government latterly, and they can't even form a credible opposition. That's why I was glad to see them relegated in Holyrood - Ruth Davidson actually holds the SNP to account whereas Kezia Dugdale just scores cheap political points.

I very much welcome political diversity and as such the gains the Conservatives have made have been brilliant in the last few years - I disagree with what they have to say but they really do form a sensible and credible opposition to the SNP. I am also happy to see growth from the Lib Dems and Greens, to name but two. But Labour have failed to achieve anything, and I would welcome their erasure from the Scottish political scene.

More election news

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39682388

A few points with Corbyn's Bank Holiday idea:
1. It would need to be in conjunction with changing the legislation that requires employers to give a minimum of 28 days off a year for full time workers, otherwise we could end up with Bank Holidays when most people are working.
2. Phasing in extra Bank Holidays would normally sense. However, I can see objections if St David's Day was made a Bank Holiday 2 years after St Patrick's Day.
3. It would make sense to move one of the May Bank Holidays to later in the year, otherwise there would be a total of 6 Bank Holidays during March, April and May and quite a few months without any.

They're all very clustered these Bank Holidays, as you have noted. We'll have St Patrick's and St David's Days in March, Easter in the middle/somewhere around here, and St George's Day in April (on which note, Happy St George's Day England). That's five in the space of two months. Would it not make much more sense to try and spread them out over the course of the year?

It's an ill thought-out idea, capitalising on nationalist sentiment at the expense of common sense. I'm not sure we necessarily need more bank holidays - personally I find them an annoyance anyway because my in-hours workload ends up clustered in four days rather than five (and the restricted out-of-hours workload . But does he really expect Scotland to celebrate St George's Day, or for that matter England to celebrate St Andrew's Day? Would be more sensible to make each national day a holiday in its own country, and then come up with some other meaningful holidays. Why not copy India and have a National Science Day, for example?

 

[southern442]

Labour have now gone up to 29%, Tories are down to 40%, according to the latest poll.

 

[me123]

Poll. Singular. Don't get too excited until you see a definite trend in multiple polls by several pollsters.

 

[pemma]

But does he really expect Scotland to celebrate St George's Day, or for that matter England to celebrate St Andrew's Day? Would be more sensible to make each national day a holiday in its own country, and then come up with some other meaningful holidays.

Being part Irish it would make more sense for me personally to celebrate St Patrick's Day over St Andrew's or St David's day but I find people who've got no Irish connections in England are more likely to do something on St Patrick's day then any of the other feast days of patron saints.

There will be people living in England and working in Wales or Scotland and vice versa, who will more bothered about the patron saint of their place of residence, rather than the one at their place of work.

Why not copy India and have a National Science Day, for example?

You could argue the world wide web is the greatest invention for a generation and it's a British scientist credited with the invention so why not have a www Bank Holiday and run special themed events on that day?

 

[southern442]

Being part Irish it would make more sense for me personally to celebrate St Patrick's Day over St Andrew's or St David's day but I find people who've got no Irish connections in England are more likely to do something on St Patrick's day then any of the other feast days of patron saints.

And let's not even talk about the Americans... :roll:

 

[backontrack]

Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron has ruled out a coalition with either Labour or the Conservatives. He told the Observer: "We will not be doing any king of deal, any kind of coalition, any kind of arrangement."

Does anyone here actually believe that statement?

 

[AlterEgo]

Does anyone here actually believe that statement?

I do.

Once bitten, twice shy. Lib Dems really should have learned their lesson from the previous coalition where they basically fagged for Cameron.

Also the Lib Dems seem to understand they're making a more credible case as a competent opposition than a minor government partner, thanks to the complete implosion of Labour.

 

[pemma]

I do.

Once bitten, twice shy. Lib Dems really should have learned their lesson from the previous coalition where they basically fagged for Cameron.

Also the Lib Dems seem to understand they're making a more credible case as a competent opposition than a minor government partner, thanks to the complete implosion of Labour.

They also want to be seen opposing Brexit not helping arranging it - much easier to do on the opposition benches than propping up a pro-Brexit Conservative government.

 

[southern442]

So does that mean another election will have to be called if the result is a hung parliament? Assuming there isn't another party that would do coalitions. The only other one that seems obvious is the SNP but I doubt the Tories would want to join forces with them.

 

[edwin_m]

The alternative for the LibDems (or anyone else who may get the relevant numbers) is to agreed to support another party on specific issues but not to be part of a formal coalition. Potentially the smaller party is more able to stop things they don't like and can perhaps avoid what the LibDems reaped in 2015. But they don't get any seats on the front bench, probably don't get any of their own proposals into law, and could be seen as wreckers rather than a constructive contributor.

If this happened and the supporting party totally lost confidence in the government, an election could still be triggered by a vote of no confidence even if the Parliament Act is still in force - but I think they'd have to wait 14 days before calling it to give a chance for an alternative government to be formed.

 

[pemma]

So does that mean another election will have to be called if the result is a hung parliament? Assuming there isn't another party that would do coalitions. The only other one that seems obvious is the SNP but I doubt the Tories would want to join forces with them.

When the exit poll was announced for the last election it had the Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority, the Lib Dems with 10, the DUP with 8 and UKIP with 2. Had that been the actual result there would have been quite a few options had the Lib Dems refused to work with the Conservatives, especially when you take in to consideration some Northern Irish seats are likely to be taken by Sinn Fein who then do not attend Westminster.