@Bantamzen I think you're on the money for the shorter term stuff. Like any long range forecast I think it goes a little 'finger in the air' towards the end, but the central premise seems pretty feasible. It's a fair assumption to say there -will- be multiple crunch points coming in the near future with the new PM and his government's ability to maintain a grip on power, its course of Brexit and possibly on the Union itself.
What truly throws me for a loop is that there's a metric s***-ton of Conservative MPs and members who don't see any of this coming and who believe that everything's going to be Alright In The End if they just squint their eyes enough to blur out everyone from their immediate view.
But hey ho, pass the popcorn.
When the referendum was announced in 2015, I entered the argument at a neutral position, i.e. prepared to listen to both arguments, read the evidence they presented & form my own opinion. Sadly any lucid arguments from Leave & Remain were quickly swamped by the ridiculous rhetoric from the extremes of both sides, meaning forming an educated opinion from neutral became increasingly difficult. As a result I did not vote, not feeling confident that those who would enact whatever the result actually understood what challenges they were facing. Some might call it a kop out, and they may have a point, but I did not feel that I support either position.
However following the Leave result, I watched the Brexiteers lurch between blind optimism, weak arguments for leaving, jingoism, and anger when they feel that they are not getting what they want (despite what they want not actually being legally or politically defined). And so I have increasingly been moving towards a position of status quo, i.e. not leaving until at least how we leave be properly defined and understood not only by those enacting it, but those piling on the political & rhetorical pressure. Sadly Boris Johnson is a crowd pleaser before he is a pragmatic politician, and I seriously fear that he will be more concerned with pleasing his supporters than pragmatically dealing with Brexit (which may still mean futrher delays if needed). Hence my bleak outlook above.
Just been reading a blog from an expert in international trade. For the US to agree a trade deal with us they are certainly going to demand that our food safety standards are relaxed to and are the same as theirs. But that will throw a spanner in the works with regards to any trade deal that is agreed with the EU as the EU will definitely not accept any lowering of food standards. We are a tiny economy compared to the likes of the US. Now we are quitting one of the biggest trading blocs in the world we will not have the clout to demand good deals. The EU has just negotiated a trade deal with Canada that took years to negotiate. Canada has already stated that the same deal will not be on the table for the UK as the UK economy is not as bigger market as the EU is. Lets stops all this nonsense that we just have to believe in it to make a success of it. And now we have a PM who turns up late for meetings, doesn't pay full attention and blatantly lies on camera. I sincerely hope the media push him on his fish mess up. Held up a fish at some hustings claiming the EU forces fishermen to transport their fish with ice pillows. That is utter nonsense. The EU and UK food standards agency have said it is a British rule about the ice pillow. EU rules simply state that fish must be transported in a way that keeps them safe for human consumption. To me that is a pretty important rule and just shows the nonsense Boris Johnson spouts and that he cannot be trusted as PM.
And here's what the "we'll be fine" Brexiteers simply fail to understand. The EU currently has more than 70 trade deals around the world, so a 'no deal' position means falling out of all 70+ & restarting the process. Yes a handful of pre-agreements have been signed, although even these are not guaranteed to become fully fledged deals quickly if at all. So we are looking at years, maybe even decades before we even get towards a position close to that which we currently hold. And in the meantime we will be left with WTO tariffs, which will generally be bad for both imports & exports. To put it in context, there are no other countries, or at least those with markets we are interested in that trade purely on WTO tariffs. Simply put, 'no deal' will leave us hamstrung for a very long time, and no amount of blind optimism will change that.
He may appear to be a complete tool, but we are stuck with him for the time being.
Let's just hope for the sake of the Country he confounds his critics and makes a success of what is indeed a poisoned chalice.
I'm not holding my breath, in his campaigning for the leadership position Johnson has laid his cards out quite well. Look after those that got him there, pay lip service to everyone else. That doesn't bode well at all.