The thing is, the power stations aren't going to convert to alternative fuel sources overnight. They will still need coal, whether its at £40 per ton or £10 per ton. I think the reason for the initial reduction in orders is because most of the power stations have stockpiled months worth of coal in advance and simply don't need to buy it in at the new price. Come the autumn, it will be a different story..
As far as the biggest generator is concerned it's a bit of a treble whammy for the FOCs - transfer to alternative fuels (gas is relatively cheap for those that can burn it and Drax has seen massive investment in biomas going as far as investing in their own fleet of wagons), a massive increase in coal burning taxation (yes, the FOCs knew it was coming - were talking multi-million £ international companies and they aren't stupid but, right up until the final moment, 'some' FOC MDs continued to argue against it with intelligent points. All to no avail it seems) together with the normal seasonal drop in coal requirements.
You'd think the generators would also use foresight and stockpile huge amounts over the months before the deadline.
At my depot it's only the past three to four weeks that coal supply has gone through the roof...
As it stands it's quite a volatile market but when the big three coal suppliers show great concern it tends to mean big changes afoot.
Yes, autumn will see increases in traffic but going from 0% to 1% is an increase - unfortunately it's not the sort of increase that makes a company viable.
This all feeds back into the reason that some FOCs have suspended recruitment, others have scaled right back and others weren't going to recruit anyway (although I suppose they've filled their 'talent pools' for the return of the good times...)