Transport for London will "declare itself bankrupt" by end of today (14 May 2020) without emergency finance

[jon0844]

Isn't the likely outcome that the DfT takes over TfL eventually? At the rate things are going, every penny given to TfL is going to have something given up in the DfT's favour?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

So it seems to me that there's plenty of blame as to who is the real baddy when it comes to TfL's present parlous financial condition! That being said I'm sure it's personally and political convient for both Boris and Sadiq to try and muddy the waters and blame each other so doubtless the dance will continue.

That is my suspicion too. I can't find any link, but I'm sure I've read that Government sources are claiming Sadiq is misrepresenting them over the possible expansion of the CC zone, and their position is merely that Sadiq has to find some savings or additional income in return for further bailouts.

My suspicion is further that wiser heads in both the DfT and TfL have realised that some expansion/redesign of the congestion charge is necessary, both to put TfL on a sound financial footing and to stop cars from totally clogging up the streets (and in the process destroying any chance of reliable bus services). But both sides are eager to pin the blame for doing this on the other side, on the assumption that it would be electorally unpopular. (I have no direct evidence for that suspicion, but putting 2 and 2 together it seems very plausible).

 

[yorksrob]

Commuting in London every day throughout lockdown
I have used the tube once since march (prior to then I'd used it daily for years)
I am not giving my custom to an organisation that spent months telling its potential customers not to use its services.
Imagine if a commercial organisation did this

The TOC's are (ostensibly) commercial organisations, yet they did just that !

 

[Bletchleyite]

The TOC's are (ostensibly) commercial organisations, yet they did just that !

Because the Government told them to.

 

[yorksrob]

Because the Government told them to.

True, but they're still commercial organisations.

 

[Busaholic]

Getting rid of the 60+ Freedom Pass is long overdue, but will presumably only stop new applicants, so the savings will be negligible at first.

 

[Mojo]

I hear a lot of criticism of the fare freeze, but when comparing with fares in other big cities, London is still extortionate. Is there any other world city with more expensive fares than London?

I think it wholly depends on the journey being made. £1.50 Off peak for any journey in zones 2-6 priced by TfL (which for these purposes doesn’t include lines that have services running into Liverpool St, or Heathrow Airport) is exceptional value, and unmatched by many other western cities.

 

[Mag_seven]

I think it wholly depends on the journey being made. £1.50 Off peak for any journey in zones 2-6 priced by TfL (which for these purposes doesn’t include lines that have services running into Liverpool St, or Heathrow Airport) is exceptional value, and unmatched by many other western cities.

Certainly London bus fares are an absolute snip - where I live it costs £2.30 for a single journey on one bus. If you want to go somewhere that involves a change of buses you need to buy another ticket for £2.30! Compare that to London where for a journey of similar duration and number of changes you would only pay £1.50. Maybe its high time that London bus fares were brought up to the levels that everybody else has to pay out in the provinces.

 

[radamfi]

Certainly London bus fares are an absolute snip - where I live it costs £2.30 for a single journey on one bus. If you want to go somewhere that involves a change of buses you need to buy another ticket for £2.30! Compare that to London where for a journey of similar duration and number of changes you would only pay £1.50. Maybe its high time that London bus fares were brought up to the levels that everybody else has to pay out in the provinces.

This, and the zone 2-6 tube fare mentioned earlier, are the extreme cases. Day tickets, season tickets, journeys involving zone 1 or usiny more than one mode of transport, may well be the most expensive in the world. Unless someone can think of somewhere else?

If bus fares outside London are expensive, you should be asking for fare cuts, rather than asking for London to be even more expensive.

 

[Mag_seven]

If bus fares outside London are expensive, you should be asking for fare cuts, rather than asking for London to be even more expensive.

Well there is that but I can't see it somehow!

 

[crablab]

Maybe its high time that London bus fares were brought up to the levels that everybody else has to pay out in the provinces.

Certainly, with the "hopper fare" I think that would be counterintuitive. If you want to get places in London by bus, you will likely need to change. Interchanging Tube lines does not mean you pay an extra £2.40.
So this means people are more likely to commute via bus, potentially, which takes people off over crowded Tube lines.

Also take into account that London is geographically very compact (eg. lots of stops close together).

 

[Cdd89]

I read a TfL report that the hopper fare didn’t cost all that much money. Anyone needing to take 4 buses daily would previously have capped at 3 buses so the cost hit there was 33% not 50%. And some of those may furthermore have capped zonally on top of that in which case the hit would be zero for them. For others especially those making one way journeys or sneaking returns in within the 60 minutes, the bus hopper may have induced demand and 75p per 2 buses is better £0.

 

[MotCO]

I read a TfL report that the hopper fare didn’t cost all that much money. Anyone needing to take 4 buses daily would previously have capped at 3 buses so the cost hit there was 33% not 50%. And some of those may furthermore have capped zonally on top of that in which case the hit would be zero for them. For others especially those making one way journeys or sneaking returns in within the 60 minutes, the bus hopper may have induced demand and 75p per 2 buses is better £0.

I have gone into town by bus, done my business in the bank, and come home again, easily within the 60 minutes allowed. I therefore only paid half of what I would have to have paid before the Hopper was introduced, i.e. a 50% saving. Am I unusual in doing this?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I have gone into town by bus, done my business in the bank, and come home again, easily within the 60 minutes allowed. I therefore only paid half of what I would have to have paid before the Hopper was introduced, i.e. a 50% saving. Am I unusual in doing this?

I don't think that's unique, but I'm sure that's true of only a minority of bus journeys. Most people are going to work, going shopping, to visit friends, or to go to various appointments that would take too long to get a bus back within that time. There's really not going to be that high a proportion of journeys where you could make the outward journey, walk from the bus stop to your actual destination, do your business, walk back to the bus stop and wait for the next bus all within an hour. But it will be a measurable proportion of journeys. At a guess, maybe 5% or 10% of journeys off-peak? Much less during the rush hours.

But on the other hand, consider this: For that 50% saving to be possible, your bus journey must be pretty short. Probably short enough that paying £3 for a return journey would be pretty poor value for money - not going to tempt many people who have any alternative. Those are therefore exactly the kind of journeys for which the hopper fare is most likely to attract new custom, compensating for the loss in revenue per passenger.

Personally, I do think Sadiq Khan's 4-year fares freeze was a bit fiscally irresponsible. But the hopper fare on the other hand was an extremely good idea, making the fares system fairer and very likely making the bus rather more attractive relative to the car for many short journeys.

 

[Busaholic]

Well there is that but I can't see it somehow!

Cornwall Council was granted a considerable amount of money by the DfT a year ago to do just that, and it was supposed to happen last May, then September, and now seems to have been kicked into the long grass with Covid 19 given as the inevitable reason. It's not being forgotten about by some of us locals, who will continue to ask questions.

 

[Mikey C]

Traffic congestion in Inner London offpeak is unbearably high so I would welcome the expansion of the congestion charge to cover the N&S circulars.

To mitigate the impact, I would suggest introducing a 90% key worker discount for anyone working within C-Charge area. This should target those in critical frontline roles particularly local authority, fire, police, military, infrastructure, transport, health, care, education and social workers.

The area enclosed by the North Circular isn't inner London, it's 7 or 8 miles out from the centre!

 

[Tom B]

I suppose the issue is that the 406 is the next logical place after the current boundary - and since the ULEZ will be going in in 2021, the infrastructure will be there to support it. It'd be more difficult to try and define a proper mid-point (Crouch End?).

 

[Mikey C]

I suppose the issue is that the 406 is the next logical place after the current boundary - and since the ULEZ will be going in in 2021, the infrastructure will be there to support it. It'd be more difficult to try and define a proper mid-point (Crouch End?).

The difference is that the ULEZ is a encouragement to get people to drive cleaner vehicles, and that is they do so they pay nothing. It's very different from a charge everyone pays, especially as this isn't something which has been debated in an election (unlike the original congestion charge which had a democratic mandate)

 

[bramling]

The difference is that the ULEZ is a encouragement to get people to drive cleaner vehicles, and that is they do so they pay nothing. It's very different from a charge everyone pays, especially as this isn't something which has been debated in an election (unlike the original congestion charge which had a democratic mandate)

There’s no democratic mandate at all for it, it never appeared on any manifesto. People tend to remember those sorts of things. If Khan can successfully make it clear that this was imposed by Boris then it could cost the Conservatives their remaining London seats at the next election, and they need to remember they got an 80 seat majority of the back of Brexit and the presence of Corbyn, so next time round they may need those seats.

Of course, BJ himself probably doesn’t care as he knows he is finished and will be long gone by then, and I suspect this is going to be central to some pretty nasty policy decisions over the next year.

 

[telstarbox]

Apparently talks are ongoing and Sadiq Khan has responded:

https://twitter.com/SadiqKhan/status/1318830505857515526

As Mayor, I simply cannot accept these Government proposals for TfL, which would hit Londoners with a triple whammy of higher costs at a time when so many people are already facing hardship.
The Government want to:
1) extend the £15 Congestion Charge to the North and South Circular
2) increase fares in London by more than inflation, and
3) introduce a new tax on the capital to pay for public transport
Now is not the time for the Government to play party political games or be vindictive towards London – this is far too serious a matter. We need them to do what is right for the city and the people of this city who have endured so much during this crisis.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Apparently talks are ongoing and Sadiq Khan has responded:

https://twitter.com/SadiqKhan/status/1318830505857515526

Yet Khan is in favour of greater restrictions which will depress TfL’s revenue still further. Imbecile.

 

[bramling]

Yet Khan is in favour of greater restrictions which will depress TfL’s revenue still further. Imbecile.

This is the trouble. Six of one and half of the other when it comes to London.

 

[kristiang85]

Khan had helped put TFL on the path to ruin long before COVID (I'm not saying his predecessors are innocent either, but Khan's policies have only exacerbated the situation), but this is a convenient way for him to shift the blame.

He is a slippery fish of a politician.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Khan had helped put TFL on the path to ruin long before COVID (I'm not saying his predecessors are innocent either, but Khan's policies have only exacerbated the situation), but this is a convenient way for him to shift the blame.

He is a slippery fish of a politician.

Government policy (cutting TfL's grant - £700m per year) has had a much larger impact than Kahn's fair freeze (£640m total spread over 4 years) when it comes to TfL funding though.
Sure it may have given TfL a little less slack - but given how much the government grant cut drawfs anything else - I think he is totally right to shift the blame onto Westminster.

 

[Mikey C]

While I don't especially rate Khan, the government is playing politics here, and when it comes to the Mayoral elections next year and indeed the next General Election, the Conservative candidates will be the ones who will suffer most. There are currently 21 MPs in London, most in outer London, and a lot of residents will be directly or indirectly affected by these changes, especially the congestion charge

 

[ABB125]

It'll be interesting to see what the eventual outcome of the discussions is.

On the subject of extending the congestion charge, this seems sensible. However, if the extension has the same charge as the current one (as the government wants), it may actually result in an increase in driving: for example, someone living in the extension zone at the moment won't drive to central London as it will cost them £15, so they might drive to an alternative location outside the current charging area. But if the charge is extended, it'll cost them £15 to drive to either, so they may well decide to go to the one in the city centre because it's better/more convenient or whatever, resulting in an increase in traffic in the current zone.
Much better to have a "zone 2" charge (say £6), to encourage the person to still drive to the alternative location.

 

[bramling]

Government policy (cutting TfL's grant - £700m per year) has had a much larger impact than Kahn's fair freeze (£640m total spread over 4 years) when it comes to TfL funding though.
Sure it may have given TfL a little less slack - but given how much the government grant cut drawfs anything else - I think he is totally right to shift the blame onto Westminster.

Much as it makes me vomit to defend Khan, the main issue is the fall in passenger numbers causing revenue to dry up. That’s not Khan’s fault, though his continuing obsession with wanting to plunge London into lockdown isn’t helping.

The reasons we are seeing these shenanigans over TFL are plain simple - London is a largely Labour city with a Labour mayor, and not only that there’s mayoral elections coming up. Boris even managed to slip into PMQs today to “vote Shaun Bailey”.

On the subject of Bailey, personal view however I find it incredible that the Conservatives have managed to find a mayoral candidate who’s even more odious than Khan.

While I don't especially rate Khan, the government is playing politics here, and when it comes to the Mayoral elections next year and indeed the next General Election, the Conservative candidates will be the ones who will suffer most. There are currently 21 MPs in London, most in outer London, and a lot of residents will be directly or indirectly affected by these changes, especially the congestion charge

The Conservatives seem to by trying to self-destruct the last ounces of support they have in London, that being the suburbs. Come 2024 they could well need those 21 seats, relying on the red wall seats is not a given at all (and if they carry on like they are at the moment is even less of a given).

Of course, this won’t be Boris’s problem, and when Boris goes it’s probable Cummings will disappear too (unless Gove takes over, perhaps). The best hope at the moment is jitters inside the Conservative party.

 

[hwl]

Government policy (cutting TfL's grant - £700m per year) has had a much larger impact than Kahn's fair freeze (£640m total spread over 4 years) when it comes to TfL funding though.
Sure it may have given TfL a little less slack - but given how much the government grant cut drawfs anything else - I think he is totally right to shift the blame onto Westminster.

The Grant cut was meant to be partially offset by TfL getting a cut of business rates instead but that won't be as valuable as predicted by the then Mayor (Boris) when it was agreed! This is a major black hole of elephantine proportions along with Crossrail cost overruns the mechanism for London paying all of hadn't yet been sorted out (some already sorted but the majority not with 2 years of can kicking).

 

[WelshBluebird]

On the subject of Bailey, personal view however I find it incredible that the Conservatives have managed to find a mayoral candidate who’s even more odious than Khan.

Goldsmith wasn't exactly pleasant either - at least a part of his campaign relied on dog whistle racism.

 

[hwl]

Much as it makes me vomit to defend Khan, the main issue is the fall in passenger numbers causing revenue to dry up. That’s not Khan’s fault, though his continuing obsession with wanting to plunge London into lockdown isn’t helping.

The reasons we are seeing these shenanigans over TFL are plain simple - London is a largely Labour city with a Labour mayor, and not only that there’s mayoral elections coming up. Boris even managed to slip into PMQs today to “vote Shaun Bailey”.

On the subject of Bailey, personal view however I find it incredible that the Conservatives have managed to find a mayoral candidate who’s even more odious than Khan.



The Conservatives seem to by trying to self-destruct the last ounces of support they have in London, that being the suburbs. Come 2024 they could well need those 21 seats, relying on the red wall seats is not a given at all (and if they carry on like they are at the moment is even less of a given).

Of course, this won’t be Boris’s problem, and when Boris goes it’s probable Cummings will disappear too (unless Gove takes over, perhaps). The best hope at the moment is jitters inside the Conservative party.

Several big issues:

• Fare box dropping massively Bus at 55% and Tube at 40%
• Crossrail cost overruns
• Lack of Crossrail farebox revenue especially having most of the OPEX.
• Business rate share will decrease in practice with less commercial space and /or lower rental values
• fares freeze
• 60 to retirement age Oyster pass (Circa £180m pa cost) - [Optional - originally a vote buy]