I would guess that either:
- The 50 will run hourly Aberystwyth - Cardigan via New Quay, serving Aberporth on alternate trips, and the X50 will be scrapped or
- The 50 will run hourly Aberystwyth - Synod Inn via New Quay, continuing to Cardigan via Aberporth on alternate trips, and the X50 will remain but only between Aberaeron and Cardigan, probably attempting to connect with the 40/TC1 (because if it connects with the 50 the intervals are less even at the Cardigan end (they aren't ever going to be perfectly even though I think))
Whose to say it would be another service north of Aberaeron. My suggestion would be for the X50 and 50 (Cardigan and New Quay) to alternate north of Aberaeron, so both Cardigan and New Quay get a bus every two hours to Aberystwyth. A hourly service from New Quay would be maintained by running a service to Llanarth or Aberaeron to connect with the X50. The 550 would run Cardigan - Aberporth - New Quay - Aberaeron, connecting with the TC1 at Aberaeron. Therefore, New Quay actually gets a better-than-hourly service (alternating between a gap of arround an hour and one of arround half an hour) to make up for the reduction in through services to Aberystwth. I tried to work out a timetable which would give New Quay a half-hourly service, including one every two hours to Cardigan and one every two hours to Aberystwyth, but couldn't do it without exceeding the current requirement (which I think is four buses for 50 and 550).
The question in my opinion is how to attract more passengers, to reduce car mileage and the subisdy needed to operate the bus service. Therefore if a service is more attractive it is better use of public money. And don't forget that Cribyn lost most scheduled services to speed up the TC1/40.
It'll be interesting to see which one we get. I'd always assumed that it would be your second option but who knows.
Always good to look at new ways to increase numbers and not just do what's been done before. But, the bottom line is that the 50 makes money (or almost?) but the X50 doesn't.
NQ/Cross Inn etc has a population more than 10x Cribyn, even more in the summer (whereas the direct Synod Inn - Llanarth route has zero population) so cutting NQ-Aber services doesn't make sense.