Yes, but your lady had chosen to take the direct bus which didn't arrive. The question is had the 18 not been in existence, would she have chosen to take two vehicles and change mid-way? And I'm not sure why you're mentioning changing in this instance - it was you who suggested that people change in the middle of nowhere.
There is a balance between attempting to maximise ridership by linking communities and going round the houses, and being so circuitous that it acts as a disincentive. That's why your ideas about sacrificing the frequencies on the X1/X39 to promote longer stoppers don't work.
In terms on the night 71, the comparator is wrong. Comparing the journey time against the daytime variant 71 doesn't reflect the fact that the competition (e.g. taxis, private car) also reaps the benefit of less congestion. That is what you should use as your comparator. The key market for the night 71 is students and perhaps they don't fancy spending an extra 10-15 mins trundling around North Bristol; I think this was where Dan was coming from.
If there is some latent demand then surely First would've run the 2 later. They don't and perhaps that is telling? Similarly, the fact that in preference to the old N3, First operate both a 43 and 44 because they recognise that people at that time of night don't want to be out for much longer than they want to.
I have addressed a concern of yours, admittedly you will still think it is over the top, but it is an improvement and a compromise! So here goes!
My old plan was as follows.
31: Broadmead - Centre - Temple Meads - Arnos Vale - St Annes - Broomhill - Brislington - Keynsham (Every 20 mins)
32: Broadmead - Centre - Temple Meads - Arnos Vale - Brislington - Knowle - Stockwood - Keynsham (Every 20 mins)
33: Bristol Bus Station - Centre - Temple Meads - Arnos Vale - Brislington - Keynsham Wellsway - Saltford - Newton St Loe - Bath Bus Station (Every 30 mins)
34: Bristol Bus Station - Centre - Temple Meads - Arnos Vale - Brislington - Keynsham Temple - Saltford - Newton St Loe - Bath Bus Station (Every 30 mins)
X34: Bristol Bus Station - Centre - Temple Meads - Arnos Vale - Brislington - Saltford - Newton St Loe - Bath Bus Station (Every 20 mins)
I have changed this to the following new version
31: Broadmead - Centre - Temple Meads - Arnos Vale - St Annes - Broomhill - Brislington - Keynsham - Keynsham Temple (Then looping back to Keynsham and back to Broadmead Every 20 mins)
32: Broadmead - Centre - Temple Meads - Arnos Vale - Brislington - Knowle - Stockwood - Keynsham - Keynsham Temple (Then looping back to Keynsham and back to Broadmead Every 20 mins)
33: Bristol Bus Station - Centre - Temple Meads - Arnos Vale - Brislington - Keynsham Wellsway - Saltford - Newton St Loe - Bath Bus Station (Every 60 mins)
34: Bristol Bus Station - Centre - Temple Meads - Arnos Vale - Brislington - Keynsham Temple - Saltford - Newton St Loe - Bath Bus Station (Every 60 mins)
X34: Bristol Bus Station - Centre - Temple Meads - Arnos Vale - Brislington - Saltford - Newton St Loe - Bath Bus Station (Every 15 mins)
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So basically 1 less Bristol to Bath service an hour overall and 1 more express service Bristol to Bath overall