Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

[6862]

good work by the science community (that so many of you on here want to seem to rubbish!)

I don't see any evidence of rubbishing the scientifc community on here. What we do see plenty of, is people recognising that science is not some single fixed idea, which we should hold up and worship as some sort of god, but rather a constantly evolving understanding of the world around us and how to deal with problems. What people on here are raising issue with is the concept of 'the science' - a flawed concept promoted by Boris and co, which looks at all evidence with preconceived ideas of how they can use it to justify measures they have already decided to take. This is very different from downplaying the amazing work done by vaccinologists around the world.

 

[DB]

so that would be a gain of 9 months down to good work by the science community (that so many of you on here want to seem to rubbish!)

You may consider losing two years to be acceptable. Many of us completely disagree.

And nobody is 'rubbishing' the work of those who have developed the vaccines - the criticism is for the gloom merchants who seem to want to find any excuse under the sun to keep restrictions for as long as possible.

 

[35B]

You haven't provided any evidence for this or actual numbers, just keep pushing the quarter figure. Are we going for zero ICU admissions now? I'm sure there's a percentage in the flu season that end up there who are in this age group? To be blunt if a number of them lost some weight bit would help rather than expecting rest of us to give up our lives for them they could help themselves? Seems personal responsibility has gone out of the window?

Hard numbers have been posted in this thread, but I'll try to draw the two sets of infromation together. Current ICU occupancy is c. 5000, which with 25% of ICU patients under 50 means that we are talking c. 1200 in ICU beds who are in that age group. That is relative to a typical total ICU bed occupancy at this time of year of under 3000. For reference, the same graph posted by @Domh245 shows that typical ICU capacity is c.3,500-4,000, and that surge capacity to deal with Covid has brought the total number of ICU beds to just over 6,000, at significant cost to routine ICU work.

We also know that not all patients who would normally receive ICU treatment are able to go into ICU. One statistical effect of vaccinating groups 1-9 will be that Covid illnesses are more concentrated in younger age groups, and therefore that for a given level of cases, the proportion of "young" patients will increase as a proportion of the total. How that will offset declining total incidence of Covid will be interesting, and I have not looked at the numbers of cases by age group. However, given that older and more vulnerable adults are more likely to be shielding or otherwise limiting their risk, it seems plausible to me that total cases may not fall far or fast enough with vaccination alone to reduce the number of patients significantly until vaccination progresses past the priority groups.

That suggests a significant burden on hospitals treating Covid patients, and that care is needed as vaccination levels increase not to leave ICU still struggling for capacity as "lower risk" patients absorb very significant capacity within the system.

 

[hwl]

You haven't provided any evidence for this or actual numbers, just keep pushing the quarter figure. Are we going for zero ICU admissions now? I'm sure there's a percentage in the flu season that end up there who are in this age group? To be blunt if a number of them lost some weight bit would help rather than expecting rest of us to give up our lives for them they could help themselves? Seems personal responsibility has gone out of the window?

Already covered in previous numerous discussions that come up almost weekly on the ICNARC reports so why don't you have look at those reports or the previous comments?

Yesterday's ICNARC COVID report puts the total significant co-morbidities at 8.7-9.6% across all age groups which I reckon is low.

For the nth time case actual numbers will vary over time with a big lag on case rates as covered by at least 4 posters on this page. The relative proportions by age group are important as it tell how effective the vaccination programme will be over time on covid ICU admission.

@Domh245 as already posted a chart on this page in post 1556 with the numbers, you just need to scroll up on use this link: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/vaccine-progress-approval-and-deployment.211585/post-4993690

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Also, what proportion of these under 50s have known health conditions which put them at particular risk? If this applies, it's likely that they will have been prioritised for a vaccine in any case.

They were also at risk of needing medical attention as well so aren't necessarily a unique Covid case.

A quarter before the impact of vaccination, which indicates that just vaccinating groups 1-9 won't eliminate Covid ICU admissions. Numbers depend on case rates which is why so much effort is being put into minimise case rates.

Since when has that been the goal mission creep yet again

 

[island]

Accumulated savings? You mean for people who have had a 20% pay reduction for much of a year, or those who have lost their jobs altogether. Even those that might have saved money earlier in the year will be picking up additional housing costs from working & schooling from home. Plus there are those who have accumulated additional personal debt through a combination of the above. Some people might have some spare cash, many will not. And I suspect a fair amount of that "saved" money is already spoken for.

Indeed. Speaking for myself, as someone who is by most definitions comfortably well-off, whilst I have saved a considerable amount on leisure spending in the last 11 months, I do not foresee a "bounce back" in spending; indeed, yesterday I used a chunk of savings to pay down my mortgage.

If we go back in to lockdown in Autumn there will be riots. There'll be singular riots even if it is just me.

This forum has been predicting mass civil unrest of various sorts for months; none has materialised.

 

[Yew]

14.5million as of today, looking like we've got a good chance at the 15m target.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

This forum has been predicting mass civil unrest of various sorts for months; none has materialised.

Currently furlough and other support mechanisms have bought off people but should Chancellor of Exchequer decide not to extend these schemes come March 3rd there will be a change of attitude although I doubt outright civil unrest will arise that will take soup kitchens.

 

[Yew]

Currently furlough and other support mechanisms have bought off people but should Chancellor of Exchequer decide not to extend these schemes come March 3rd there will be a change of attitude although I doubt outright civil unrest will arise that will take soup kitchens.

Unfortunately, I fear that the Bank of Sunak will continue to pay out, and Borises fear mongering will continue.

 

[yorksrob]

A quarter before the impact of vaccination, which indicates that just vaccinating groups 1-9 won't eliminate Covid ICU admissions. Numbers depend on case rates which is why so much effort is being put into minimise case rates.

Why are we even talking about eliminating covid ICU admissions ? In the absense of some silver bullet treatment such an aim is impossible, so they will need to expand ICI capacity to take account of a baseline level of covid ICU admissions.

 

[Yew]

Why are we even talking about eliminating covid ICU admissions ? In the absense of some silver bullet treatment such an aim is impossible, so they will need to expand ICI capacity to take account of a baseline level of covid ICU admissions.

It's eugenics to not sacrifice everything to stop pensioners dying, don't you know? Nobody is allowed to die from covid any more.

 

[Richard Scott]

Unfortunately, I fear that the Bank of Sunak will continue to pay out, and Borises fear mongering will continue.

Which is actually the bank of us, we are going to have to pay for this at some point. Wish the government would stop writing cheques that it's up to us to fund just because they haven't got guts to stand up to lockdown activists, SAGE etc.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Unfortunately, I fear that the Bank of Sunak will continue to pay out, and Borises fear mongering will continue.

Well he seems to have come off the fence today with comments made at a visit to Fujifilm Diosynth Biotechnologies plant in Billingham where he said

I’m optimistic, I won’t hide it from you. I’m optimistic, but we have to be cautious. Our children’s education is our number one priority, but then working forward, getting non-essential retail open as well and then, in due course as and when we can prudently, cautiously, of course we want to be opening hospitality as well.

“I will be trying to set out as much as I possibly can in as much detail as I can, always understanding that we have to be wary of the pattern of disease. We don’t want to be forced into any kind of retreat or reverse ferret

If he's prepared to say this openly now, having been quite reserved at this weeks presser, he will be pushing on with relaxation unless the locktivists can find another mutant strain to scare him. So far the SA variant is not gaining the ground with the UK variant still being dominant.

We might just be sighting a chink of light ahead.

 

[hwl]

Why are we even talking about eliminating covid ICU admissions ? In the absense of some silver bullet treatment such an aim is impossible, so they will need to expand ICI capacity to take account of a baseline level of covid ICU admissions.

We aren't talking about elimination just substantial reduction so the NHS can function so the NHS can work its way through the backlog. The main limitation is staff and that takes decades of training (particularly anaesthetics) . A lot of the physical expansion in ICU capacity has involved taking over operating theatres and recovery space at the expense of being able to do operations.

 

[VauxhallandI]

We aren't talking about elimination just substantial reduction so the NHS can function so the NHS can work its way through the backlog. The main limitation is staff and that takes decades of training (particularly anaesthetics) . A lot of the physical expansion in ICU capacity has involved taking over operating theatres and recovery space at the expense of being able to do operations.

How many years have you been monitoring ICU figures?

 

[Yew]

We aren't talking about elimination just substantial reduction so the NHS can function so the NHS can work its way through the backlog. The main limitation is staff and that takes decades of training (particularly anaesthetics) . A lot of the physical expansion in ICU capacity has involved taking over operating theatres and recovery space at the expense of being able to do operations.

Indeed, but that doesn't matter in the context of opening up in the next few weeks.

 

[yorksrob]

We aren't talking about elimination just substantial reduction so the NHS can function so the NHS can work its way through the backlog. The main limitation is staff and that takes decades of training (particularly anaesthetics) . A lot of the physical expansion in ICU capacity has involved taking over operating theatres and recovery space at the expense of being able to do operations.

Given where we are now, a three quarters reduction in covid admissions must represent a substantial improvement in capacity.

Recovery space must be one of the areas that can be expanded comparatively easily on a more permanent basis.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Given where we are now, a three quarters reduction in covid admissions must represent a substantial improvement in capacity.

Recovery space must be one of the areas that can be expanded comparatively easily on a more permanent basis.

Operating theatres were used as they have access to equipment and oxygen supplies not found on general wards so when I've mentioned in previous posts that we need a contingency plan for this Autumn that could mean retrofitting more wards with the necessary infrastructure so they can be quickly converted to ICU capacity in future.

 

[Spamcan81]

It's eugenics to not sacrifice everything to stop pensioners dying, don't you know? Nobody is allowed to die from covid any more.

You'd be singing a different tune if Covid was killing the younger members of society in their thousands.

 

[yorksrob]

Operating theatres were used as they have access to equipment and oxygen supplies not found on general wards so when I've mentioned in previous posts that we need a contingency plan for this Autumn that could mean retrofitting more wards with the necessary infrastructure so they can be quickly converted to ICU capacity in future.

Indeed, well that's precisely the sort of thing they should be doing before next autumn, rather than banking everything on the vaccine rollout going perfectly, and if doesn't "well, we can always have another lockdown"

 

[Yew]

You'd be singing a different tune if Covid was killing the younger members of society in their thousands.

I can confirm that I wouldn't .

 

[packermac]

It's eugenics to not sacrifice everything to stop pensioners dying, don't you know? Nobody is allowed to die from covid any more.

I would think that you will find that society generally expect that pensioners and every other age group are expected to be saved for as long as possible all the time.
That is why people are in care homes in many cases with much quality of life, and those that want die (even those in extreme pain) are not allowed to, even if they take it to court.
As was said elsewhere the option is Eugenics although that did not work to well in the early 1940's in Europe.

You may consider losing two years to be acceptable. Many of us completely disagree.

And nobody is 'rubbishing' the work of those who have developed the vaccines - the criticism is for the gloom merchants who seem to want to find any excuse under the sun to keep restrictions for as long as possible.

So one set of scientists are perfect but the others are not because they look at a different part of science?

 

[takno]

You'd be singing a different tune if Covid was killing the younger members of society in their thousands.

I think I'd still say the same if the really rather low IFR was spread evenly across the population spectrum tbh.

It still feels insane to me to worry as much about the slightly early death of someone in their 80s as compared somebody in their 20s though. From an equity standpoint, if you get to that age then you've had your fair share. From a more utilitarian standpoint, a younger death is a loss of far more years of life, and a waste of an education and early years of training in somebody who on average will have a lot more work to offer society.

The fact that people will condemn you for even having these basic ethical discussions is probably the depressing thing about this whole episode for me. It's the clearest sign that we are going to end up doing this to ourselves again and again, until our national conversation starts to get a bit more grown up.

 

[Yew]

I would think that you will find that society generally expect that pensioners and every other age group are expected to be saved for as long as possible all the time.
That is why people are in care homes in many cases with much quality of life, and those that want die (even those in extreme pain) are not allowed to, even if they take it to court.

We've never done that to the detriment of all other aspects of society though?

 

[Кряква]

I think I'd still say the same if the really rather low IFR was spread evenly across the population spectrum tbh.

It's not far off that anyway, if you normalize for mortality rates in general.

The IFR at most points on the spectrum is fairly close to the average mortality rate in that age cohort.

That is to say, an 80 year old with (example) a 10% IFR from coronavirus, has a 10% probability of dying in any one year anyway.

A 20 year old with an 0.x% IFR from coronavirus has an 0.x% probability of dying in that one year.

The calculations get a fair bit worse if hospitals are overloaded. In that case I believe it ends up being about 4-5 times as bad as an average year.

 

[DB]

So one set of scientists are perfect but the others are not because they look at a different part of science?

Is that strawman argument the best you can do?

Those who developed the vaccines have actually done something very useful. The government doom mongers have done the opposite - they have relentlessly pushed for these restrictions which have caused massive damage to society.

Just compare the UK trajectory graph with the Sweden one posted on here recently. They go up and down in a virtually identical manner. Anyone not blinded by ideology would conclude from this that lockdowns have little effect. This is also borne out by other evidence such as the Stanford university study across Europe which found no actual better outcome in countries which have lockdowns.

 

[Yew]

15 Million Vaccinations today!

 

[nlogax]

Looks like some last minute cohort eligibility shenanigans that will now exclude those with moderate asthma from group 6. Bit of a bummer but not exactly world-ending.

Edit - Nadhim Zahawi has backtracked on this and now confirms if you're a moderate asthma sufferer (ie regular inhalers, annual asthma nurse check, recipient of winter flu jab) then you're in group 6. Come on Royal Mail..where's my NHS invite letter?

 

[brad465]

The ONS report that the effects of the vaccine are taking effect, with antibodies now being reported much more in over 80s:

Covid vaccine impact revealed in over-80s blood tests

More people in this age group in England now have detectable antibodies that can fight the virus.

www.bbc.co.uk

England's vaccination programme is starting to pay off, with the over-80s age group now the most likely to test positive for coronavirus antibodies, Office for National Statistics testing suggests.

Blood tests reveal more over-80s than any other age group in England are showing signs of some immunity against Covid infection.

This comes as Covid deaths have fallen.

But overall, deaths are still 40% above the five-year average.

Protection in the blood​

People have antibodies to Covid if they've had an infection in the last few months or if they have been vaccinated.

Previously, younger age groups who were more likely to be exposed to the virus were the most likely to test positive for antibodies.

In England, 41% of over-80s tested positive for antibodies, which the ONS said was "most likely due to the high vaccination rate in this group".

Two weeks ago that figure was 26%.

It takes two to three weeks for immunity to build after vaccination.

The next most likely to have antibodies against Covid in England were people aged 16-24 years - 26% of this age group had them, due to infection rather than vaccination.

This percentage has only increased a small amount in the past fortnight.

In the other three UK nations, which have jabbed a smaller proportion of their older people, antibody detection remained highest in younger groups.

Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have not published data for week-on-week comparisons.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Looks like some last minute cohort eligibility shenanigans that will now exclude those with moderate asthma from group 6. Bit of a bummer but not exactly world-ending.

Edit - Nadhim Zahawi has backtracked on this and now confirms if you're a moderate asthma sufferer (ie regular inhalers, annual asthma nurse check, recipient of winter flu jab) then you're in group 6. Come on Royal Mail..where's my NHS invite letter?

Why can't they get anything right, always rushing out incorrect information.

I'm "lucky" I have other things on the category 6 list to help back me up!