Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

[kristiang85]

A friend of mine just moved from London to the Netherlands this week. She's a bit annoyed that she's just probably lessened her chances of getting the vaccine soon by quite a magnitude.

 

[notlob.divad]

Denmark, Norway, Iceland, Bulgaria, Ireland, Netherlands, Germany,France,Italy,Spain,Cyprus,Portugal, Latvia, Slovenia,Sweden,Luxembourg

Which still leaves: Poland, Lithuania*, Estonia, Finland, Belgium, Austria*, Czechia, Slovakia, Greece, Croatia, Hungary, and Romania, all of which are actually 'Mainland EU' as you originally described, still proceeding. So your statement "Mainland EU have stopped using the AZ" is entirely untrue. I am glad we could clear this up.

*Austria and Lithuania, have stopped using one specific batch of AZ but are continuing with other batches.

Just because France may have a stockpile due to poor uptake of the vaccine and an overly complex proceedure to deliver it, doesn't mean the whole of the continent does.



So here is a question, if it was political: based upon AZ being partially a British company, which seems to be what is being alluded to by people on here and Conservative politicians with a known hatred of the EU, then why is Sweden on the list, given that AZ is a joint British-Swedish multinational?

A friend of mine just moved from London to the Netherlands this week. She's a bit annoyed that she's just probably lessened her chances of getting the vaccine soon by quite a magnitude.

I am also a little frustrated that it will likely be a longer period of time before I get a vaccine than it would if I was still in the UK. But you take a holistic approach to these things in the main. There have been plenty of reasons over the last 12 months to be very glad I was not residing in the UK.

 

[kristiang85]

Which still leaves: Poland, Lithuania*, Estonia, Finland, Belgium, Austria*, Czechia, Slovakia, Greece, Croatia, Hungary, and Romania, all of which are actually 'Mainland EU' as you originally described, still proceeding. So your statement "Mainland EU have stopped using the AZ" is entirely untrue. I am glad we could clear this up.

*Austria and Lithuania, have stopped using one specific batch of AZ but are continuing with other batches.

Just because France may have a stockpile due to poor uptake of the vaccine and an overly complex proceedure to deliver it, doesn't mean the whole of the continent does.



So here is a question, if it was political: based upon AZ being partially a British company, which seems to be what is being alluded to by people on here and Conservative politicians with a known hatred of the EU, then why is Sweden on the list, given that AZ is a joint British-Swedish multinational?

Do note though that the countries that have stopped with AZ account for 71% of the mainland EU population, therefore it is correct to say 'the majority of mainland EU have stopped using it'.

And all the main countries with political clout have stopped it.

 

[Cdd89]

Those countries suspending/pausing vaccine use may not slow down the timelines for total vaccination since they are not refusing supplies, just stockpiling. It will cause deaths that didn't need to happen in those who didn't get a jab in time, but it won't delay the end state of the programme.

 

[yorksrob]

All this just goes to illustrate how important domestic manufacture of medical supplies is.

 

[notlob.divad]

Do note though that the countries that have stopped with AZ account for 71% of the mainland EU population, therefore it is correct to say 'the majority of mainland EU have stopped using it'.

And all the main countries with political clout have stopped it.

If the original comment had been 'the majority of mainland EU', then I may well have left the comment. However that is not what was stated, so we are stooping to whataboutary.

They clearly don't have enough 'political clout' to stop everyone else from using it though, which is the main thrust of accusation that is coming from within some quarters of the UK. Neither does it explain why the vaccine produced by an Anglo-Swedish company is not currently being administered in Sweden.

All this just goes to illustrate how important domestic manufacture of medical supplies is.

Surely a broad base of supply both domestic and international is best, given that in another time or place, reliance on domestic supply could be ineffective or insufficient.

 

[DorkingMain]

All this just goes to illustrate how important domestic manufacture of medical supplies is.

Don't think that makes the slightest bit of difference. Europe has domestic supply of AZ and Pfizer and they're being let down by them.

Wide base of sources is the most important thing so if one goes wrong there's another to back it up.

 

[yorksrob]

If the original comment had been 'the majority of mainland EU', then I may well have left the comment. However that is not what was stated, so we are stooping to whataboutary.

They clearly don't have enough 'political clout' to stop everyone else from using it though, which is the main thrust of accusation that is coming from within some quarters of the UK. Neither does it explain why the vaccine produced by an Anglo-Swedish company is not currently being administered in Sweden.


Surely a broad base of supply both domestic and international is best, given that in another time or place, reliance on domestic supply could be ineffective or insufficient.

Don't think that makes the slightest bit of difference. Europe has domestic supply of AZ and Pfizer and they're being let down by them.

Wide base of sources is the most important thing so if one goes wrong there's another to back it up.

Having the option of purchasing from abroad helps, but dependance on it isn't good at all.

 

[notlob.divad]

Having the option of purchasing from abroad helps, but dependance on it isn't good at all.

Evidently, but that is also the attitude that has been a root cause for a large proportion of the wars and conflicts in human history. Control of the supply and/or the trade routes that bring raw materials in order to secure acess to products that the population of the world are dependent upon, for a subset of that population.

 

[yorksrob]

Evidently, but that is also the attitude that has been a root cause for a large proportion of the wars and conflicts in human history. Control of the supply and/or the trade routes that bring raw materials in order to secure acess to products that the population of the world are dependent upon, for a subset of that population.

Indeed, although the UK has shown in the field of vaccines that you can have domestic supply and manufacture of a strategic resource, while at the same time enabling manufacture at cost and off-sure manufacture so that other populations can benefit, so it doesn't have to be "beggar thy neighbour"

 

[nlogax]

News is very promising of current vaccination numbers. The leap from yesterday should be pretty remarkable, approaching nearly half a million additional shots just for England. Nice that things are still moving on at pace before the supplies start to get tighter before Easter.

 

[notlob.divad]

Indeed, although the UK has shown in the field of vaccines that you can have domestic supply and manufacture of a strategic resource, while at the same time enabling manufacture at cost and off-sure manufacture so that other populations can benefit, so it doesn't have to be "beggar thy neighbour"

I am not sure the rest of the world would view it through such Union Jack tinted spectacles. Your argument totally relies on the success of this specific medicine. Upthread there were several posters who were claiming the EU's procurement failure was down to an overexposure to the French Sanofi-Pasteur Institute vaccine. (This is totally incorrect as was repeatedly demonstrated at the time). However if the shoe had been on the other foot, and a miss-calculation or an unfortunate choice of delivery vector had meant the AZ vaccine had been the one coming-up short, then the domestic v offshore profile of UK vaccinations would look vastly different.

Yes every government rides it's fortunate breaks. I was originally going to say luck, it isn't purely that, as a huge amount of work goes into decision making inorder to minimise reliance on luck. In this specific instance I would agree that the UK has played its hand well and somewhat maximised it's chances of fortuity and benefiting from it as such. Other institutions have maybe have done less well by comparrison. However it is very easy to wallow in the success whilst overlooking just how reliant the UK domestic supply is upon lots of things having gone well and aligned, any one of which could have put an entirely different picture in the frame.

 

[philosopher]

Evidently, but that is also the attitude that has been a root cause for a large proportion of the wars and conflicts in human history. Control of the supply and/or the trade routes that bring raw materials in order to secure acess to products that the population of the world are dependent upon, for a subset of that population.

If two countries are dependent on each other for certain products then it is not in either of their interests to start a fight.

 

[yorksrob]

I am not sure the rest of the world would view it through such Union Jack tinted spectacles. Your argument totally relies on the success of this specific medicine. Upthread there were several posters who were claiming the EU's procurement failure was down to an overexposure to the French Sanofi-Pasteur Institute vaccine. (This is totally incorrect as was repeatedly demonstrated at the time). However if the shoe had been on the other foot, and a miss-calculation or an unfortunate choice of delivery vector had meant the AZ vaccine had been the one coming-up short, then the domestic v offshore profile of UK vaccinations would look vastly different.

Yes every government rides it's fortunate breaks. I was originally going to say luck, it isn't purely that, as a huge amount of work goes into decision making inorder to minimise reliance on luck. In this specific instance I would agree that the UK has played its hand well and somewhat maximised it's chances of fortuity and benefiting from it as such. Other institutions have maybe have done less well by comparrison. However it is very easy to wallow in the success whilst overlooking just how reliant the UK domestic supply is upon lots of things having gone well and aligned, any one of which could have put an entirely different picture in the frame.

I can't speak for other posters and I sympathise with the EU and hope that they get their ducks in line in terms of domestic manufacturing and take-up as soon as possible, not least because of the unhelpful diplomatic ramifications the current situation throws up.

I don't think it's "wallowing in success" or "union jack tinted spectacles" to point out that sponsoring a vaccine which can be produced at cost abroad to assist other countries whilst at the same time assisting our own population is a good thing.

To put the boot on the other foot, I also think that the EU is in a better place than it would otherwise be through having its own manufacturing capability. It's problems stem perhpas througn not putting in enough funding for development and not signing contracts quickly enough, but that doesn't in itself mean that having your own manufacturing capability is of no importance or benefit.

 

[notlob.divad]

If two countries are dependent on each other for certain products then it is not in either of their interests to start a fight.

Correct, however tensions do tend to arise when the reciprocity of the relationship is percieved to be breaking down.

I can't speak for other posters and I sympathise with the EU and hope that they get their ducks in line in terms of domestic manufacturing and take-up as soon as possible, not least because of the unhelpful diplomatic ramifications the current situation throws up.

I don't think it's "wallowing in success" or "union jack tinted spectacles" to point out that sponsoring a vaccine which can be produced at cost abroad to assist other countries whilst at the same time assisting our own population is a good thing.

To put the boot on the other foot, I also think that the EU is in a better place than it would otherwise be through having its own manufacturing capability. It's problems stem perhpas througn not putting in enough funding for development and not signing contracts quickly enough, but that doesn't in itself mean that having your own manufacturing capability is of no importance or benefit.

Maybe I was trying to be a bit too diplomatic and confused things. My argument was that whilst it is all well and good celebrating the percieved UK success in all this, the domestic supply at least does appear to be overly reliant upon a single supplier who happens (either by design, good fortune, or a healthy dose off both) to have hit on a winning formula. The internationalist arguement is, well what if things for that one domestic supplier had not been successful. You could argue that multiple domestic suppliers diversify the risk, but in such a specialist field where size brings the combined firepower of expertise, investment and ability to absorb risk, how fragmented can your domestic supply be with respect to your market, whilst still being sustainable? So you turn to the international supplies to hedge your bets.

With respect to the EU, that international supply is somewhat domesticated in nature. Just as in the US. The market size means that it is possible to have competing internal production facilities running in a sustainable way. As such if one potential route to success fails to materialise, alternatives are still available.

 

[yorksrob]

Maybe I was trying to be a bit too diplomatic and confused things. My argument was that whilst it is all well and good celebrating the percieved UK success in all this, the domestic supply at least does appear to be overly reliant upon a single supplier who happens (either by design, good fortune, or a healthy dose off both) to have hit on a winning formula. The internationalist arguement is, well what if things for that one domestic supplier had not been successful. You could argue that multiple domestic suppliers diversify the risk, but in such a specialist field where size brings the combined firepower of expertise, investment and ability to absorb risk, how fragmented can your domestic supply be with respect to your market, whilst still being sustainable? So you turn to the international supplies to hedge your bets.

With respect to the EU, that international supply is somewhat domesticated in nature. Just as in the US. The market size means that it is possible to have competing internal production facilities running in a sustainable way. As such if one potential route to success fails to materialise, alternatives are still available.

I agree that it's not ideal to be over-reliant on one company's manufacturing capabilities for vaccines.

We should be making it in more companies interest to have a manufacturing capability in the uk, even if that means having the facilities to produce vaccines under license, rather than every company having its own factory. Perhaps we need our own equivalent to the Serum institute in India.

 

[HSTEd]

Perhaps we need our own equivalent to the Serum institute in India.

I'd rather it was a publically owned facility held in permanent readiness, than a random billionaire in charge as it is in India.

 

[yorksrob]

I'd rather it was a publically owned facility held in permanent residence, than a random billionaire in charge as it is in India.

Yes, that would work for me too. The key is that it would be able to produce whatever vaccines were required for the country under license.

 

[Cdd89]

Kind of sucks being 49 right now, so near but it seems not so near

There is precedent of them having reduced the proactive registration age groups by less than the wider distribution group, for example when it was briefly opened to those aged 56 or older. In fact this is now almost a certainty as suddenly opening to 40+ (as is the next planned distribution group) for proactive registration would overload the system. In an ideal world you'd see it reduced to 49 when they realise they're running a bit short of 50-55s!

 

[Bertie the bus]

There is quite an interesting stat on the coronavirus dashboard deaths heatmap. In England the death rate per 100,000 for 60-64 year olds on 13 Feb was 50% higher than that of 55-59 year olds. By 13 Mar 60-64 year olds had a 10% lower death rate than 55-59 year olds.

 

[kristiang85]

There is quite an interesting stat on the coronavirus dashboard deaths heatmap. In England the death rate per 100,000 for 60-64 year olds on 13 Feb was 50% higher than that of 55-59 year olds. By 13 Mar 60-64 year olds had a 10% lower death rate than 55-59 year olds.

Presumably this is due to vaccination?

 

[birchesgreen]

There is precedent of them having reduced the proactive registration age groups by less than the wider distribution group, for example when it was briefly opened to those aged 56 or older. In fact this is now almost a certainty as suddenly opening to 40+ (as is the next planned distribution group) for proactive registration would overload the system. In an ideal world you'd see it reduced to 49 when they realise they're running a bit short of 50-55s!

Yes I'm hoping so, my GP surgery has already sent out begging texts for over 50 year olds.

 

[Wychwood93]

Yes I'm hoping so, my GP surgery has already sent out begging texts for over 50 year olds.

Somewhat ironic - in normal times the 'gatekeepers' try to keep you as far away as possible for as long as possible from actually visiting a surgery and seeing somebody. You have to push a bit to get somewhere. Best not to feel poorly.

 

[Bertie the bus]

Presumably this is due to vaccination?

Anybody would need access to a lot more data than just the heatmap to say for certain but I would presume so. Death rates increase by age group so for the 60-64 group to fall below the 55-59 group when they were 50% above just 1 month earlier it certainly looks like the effect of vaccination to the casual observer.

 

[yorksrob]

It seems that one of the issues affecting the production of the vaccine in India, is the hold-up of components used in manufacturing them from abroad.

I wonder if any of these components are produced in the UK and could be air-freighted to India to complete the order.

 

[Simon11]

So the data isn't easy to compare, but I think we had the highest number of vaccines given yesterday!

First Dose: 528k
Second Dose: 132k

Total doses given: 660k

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

 

[Crossover]

So the data isn't easy to compare, but I think we had the highest number of vaccines given yesterday!

First Dose: 528k
Second Dose: 132k

Total doses given: 660k

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Moreover, given that uptake is reportedly 49.9% on first doses at the end of play yesterday, we will have now hit the 50% without a shadow of a doubt

 

[YorkshireBear]

So the data isn't easy to compare, but I think we had the highest number of vaccines given yesterday!

First Dose: 528k
Second Dose: 132k

Total doses given: 660k

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Fantastic news. Good to see second jobs building up.

 

[birchesgreen]

There is precedent of them having reduced the proactive registration age groups by less than the wider distribution group, for example when it was briefly opened to those aged 56 or older. In fact this is now almost a certainty as suddenly opening to 40+ (as is the next planned distribution group) for proactive registration would overload the system. In an ideal world you'd see it reduced to 49 when they realise they're running a bit short of 50-55s!

Well I didn't have to wait long, tomorrow in fact

 

[Crossover]

Moreover, given that uptake is reportedly 49.9% on first doses at the end of play yesterday, we will have now hit the 50% without a shadow of a doubt

As of end of play yesterday - First dose: 26,853,407 - 51% uptake

Absolutely cracking news!