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Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

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Bletchleyite

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Only about 45 minutes, IIRC.

Yep, about that. Though plenty of people will go through from Ormskirk to Chester, say, without bothering to stop off for a wee at Central.

Buses were an interesting comparison upthread. The Leigh guided busway was mentioned, but many people travel to/from Manchester city centre by stopping buses from a long way out taking often far more than an hour, especially for reasons of price (including where that price is £0 due to an ENCTS pass).
 

Gareth Marston

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Remind me how long he has been working in the rail industry for? Describing him as a "rail heavyweight" surely implies he started his long and distinguished rail career under BR?

What's even more frightening is the fact when Skates made that comment he was being serious.

Well congratulation to Professor Berry on being awarded a large crayon set however why would you want to appoint a "rail heavyweight" to do a strategic review when your days away (allegedly) from awarding the "world class" "transformational" South Wales Metro and Wales and Border franchise contract?

Are they admitting that the greatest things since sliced bread is in fact not and more work and development is needed?
 

PR1Berske

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Surely it's the time taken for the average journey, rather than the distance, that's the issue?
  • A 313 takes about 75 minutes for a Moorgate-Letchworth journey (about 36 miles), without any on-board toilets.
  • A 455 takes about 70 minutes for a Waterloo-Guildford journey (about 31 miles), without any on-board toilets.
  • A 378 takes about 60 minutes for a Richmond-Stratford journey (about 17 miles), without any on-board toilets.
  • I understand that 313s can also be used on Brighton-Portsmouth journeys (about 45 miles) taking over 80 minutes.
Although it's unlikely that many people make end-to-end journeys on these services.

However, on light rail, a T&W Metro train takes about 65 minutes for a Newcastle Airport-South Hylton journey (about 23 miles), without any on-board toilets.

What will be the (estimated) journey times for the South Wales Metro?

Fair point.
 

craigybagel

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Surely it's the time taken for the average journey, rather than the distance, that's the issue?
  • A 313 takes about 75 minutes for a Moorgate-Letchworth journey (about 36 miles), without any on-board toilets.
  • A 455 takes about 70 minutes for a Waterloo-Guildford journey (about 31 miles), without any on-board toilets.
  • A 378 takes about 60 minutes for a Richmond-Stratford journey (about 17 miles), without any on-board toilets.
  • I understand that 313s can also be used on Brighton-Portsmouth journeys (about 45 miles) taking over 80 minutes.
Although it's unlikely that many people make end-to-end journeys on these services.

However, on light rail, a T&W Metro train takes about 65 minutes for a Newcastle Airport-South Hylton journey (about 23 miles), without any on-board toilets.

What will be the (estimated) journey times for the South Wales Metro?

With the exception of Portsmouth - Brighton, the numbers travelling the entire length of those journeys would be negligible - that's not what they're for. It's mostly local commuter traffic, on for much shorter journeys. There are alternatives available that are quicker and/or carry suitable facilities. People coming down from the Heads of the Valleys won't have any alternatives - the numbers suffering with crossed legs will be much higher - and given that most of the intermediate stations up there are unstaffed halts with little more then a bus shelter for comfort, rather then the busy staffed stations of the southeast, it really is much more likely to be a problem.
 

Dai Corner

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With the exception of Portsmouth - Brighton, the numbers travelling the entire length of those journeys would be negligible - that's not what they're for. It's mostly local commuter traffic, on for much shorter journeys. There are alternatives available that are quicker and/or carry suitable facilities. People coming down from the Heads of the Valleys won't have any alternatives - the numbers suffering with crossed legs will be much higher - and given that most of the intermediate stations up there are unstaffed halts with little more then a bus shelter for comfort, rather then the busy staffed stations of the southeast, it really is much more likely to be a problem.

Not to mention those travelling back up the Valleys after a few beers on a Friday or Saturday night or on a match day.

I'd like to ply Skates, Jones and the MD of the winning bidder with liquid refreshment at the Press conference and make them ride to Merthyr and back on a Pacer with locked-out toilets!
 

Gareth Marston

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With the exception of Portsmouth - Brighton, the numbers travelling the entire length of those journeys would be negligible - that's not what they're for. It's mostly local commuter traffic, on for much shorter journeys. There are alternatives available that are quicker and/or carry suitable facilities. People coming down from the Heads of the Valleys won't have any alternatives - the numbers suffering with crossed legs will be much higher - and given that most of the intermediate stations up there are unstaffed halts with little more then a bus shelter for comfort, rather then the busy staffed stations of the southeast, it really is much more likely to be a problem.

Having witnessed a group of lads either get off and pee at intermediate stations on the platform and manage to re board or miss doors closing banging on the sides as train pulled off and in one case "lose control" with fluid running down his trouser leg whilst he stood in the vestibule between stations between Birkenhead Central and Chester I have been rather against no toilet trains. Other half and teenage daughter were with me at time as well - "that sort of thing really helps encourages people to use public transport" was other half's sarcastic comment.
 

Railwaysceptic

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Surely it's the time taken for the average journey, rather than the distance, that's the issue?
  • A 313 takes about 75 minutes for a Moorgate-Letchworth journey (about 36 miles), without any on-board toilets.
  • A 455 takes about 70 minutes for a Waterloo-Guildford journey (about 31 miles), without any on-board toilets.
  • A 378 takes about 60 minutes for a Richmond-Stratford journey (about 17 miles), without any on-board toilets.
  • I understand that 313s can also be used on Brighton-Portsmouth journeys (about 45 miles) taking over 80 minutes.
Although it's unlikely that many people make end-to-end journeys on these services.

It is reasonable to expect people to make some effort to avoid being embarrassed by calls of nature. Stations like Richmond and Waterloo have public lavatories which can be used before people begin their journey. If passengers are taken by surprise mid-journey, in some cases it is possible to avoid a crisis by getting off the train. For example, Finsbury Park has platform lavatories for Moorgate to Letchworth passengers. Willesden Junction and Gospel Oak have platform lavatories for the Richmond to Stratford journey.

Passengers travelling some distance through stations with no facilities need on-train provision.
 

Dai Corner

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It is reasonable to expect people to make some effort to avoid being embarrassed by calls of nature. Stations like Richmond and Waterloo have public lavatories which can be used before people begin their journey. If passengers are taken by surprise mid-journey, in some cases it is possible to avoid a crisis by getting off the train. For example, Finsbury Park has platform lavatories for Moorgate to Letchworth passengers. Willesden Junction and Gospel Oak have platform lavatories for the Richmond to Stratford journey.

Passengers travelling some distance through stations with no facilities need on-train provision.

Are those of us with weak bladders now supposed to develop an encyclopaedic knowledge of railway lavatories and their opening times? What happens if a train is stuck between stations or at one without facilities for an extended period?

It's a significant issue for some of us.
 

Bletchleyite

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Are those of us with weak bladders now supposed to develop an encyclopaedic knowledge of railway lavatories and their opening times? What happens if a train is stuck between stations or at one without facilities for an extended period?

It's a significant issue for some of us.

It's also to some extent sexual discrimination. A bloke can much more easily alight and run behind a bush at a quiet rural station than a woman, or use a bottle or the gangway if stuck on board for hours as happened at the start of the year.
 

berneyarms

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DART services from Greystones to Malahide in Dublin take 80-85 mins and have no toilets on board, but again very few people would be travelling the full distance.
 

HH

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Well congratulation to Professor Berry on being awarded a large crayon set however why would you want to appoint a "rail heavyweight" to do a strategic review when your days away (allegedly) from awarding the "world class" "transformational" South Wales Metro and Wales and Border franchise contract?

Are they admitting that the greatest things since sliced bread is in fact not and more work and development is needed?
Professor Barry appears to be an academic with a particular bee in his bonnet (and yes, some coloured crayons!). I think he should be described as lightweight, however, given his preference for light rail...
 

Gareth Marston

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The medium prospects for cascaded rolling stock seems to be quite good.

By the end of 2020 we should have. 178 DMU carriages off lease.

18 ex Greater Anglia & 10 ex ScotRail 156 's with no known new home.
32 ex Greater Anglia & 52 ex West Midlands Trains 170's with no known home
66 ex Trans Pennine Express 185's

Theirs a somewhat fuzzy (in terms of clarity of numbers still required) commitment for a number of Class 170 equivalents to find a home at Northern so a number of these will find their way Up North.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Professor Barry appears to be an academic with a particular bee in his bonnet (and yes, some coloured crayons!). I think he should be described as lightweight, however, given his preference for light rail...

He apparently has some metro planning experience, but nothing on heavy rail and no operational experience.
His CV says he has worked for/with MTR on their current bid.
Sounds like a conflict of interest if he has any part in the selection of the winner.
 

Gareth Marston

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In other Welsh transport news the tide seems to be turning against the M4 Relief Road

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/solution-congestion-should-not-crude-14608062
“We saw in the public inquiry this genuine belief that if you build another road, that will solve the problem. And we feel, and the evidence from our witnesses in the inquiry was, it will just fill up again.”

http://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/news/16182177.Concern_M4_relief_road_will_be__thrown_in_the_bin_/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-44044900
A final decision on the M4 relief road should be taken by Carwyn Jones's successor, the assembly's environment committee chairman has said.
 

DelW

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It does help that the timings on the HOW on a Sunday are when people want to travel. Passenger numbers on that line are down Monday - Friday since the new timetable, despite most of the line going from 4 trains a day to 5, because the new timings don't match up with travel patterns. This is no fault of ATW, the limits of infrastructure and rolling stock availability meant that it was the only way to satisfy the demands from Cardiff Bay for more services. Looking at the figures on the HOW, you might assume the line has no future with passenger numbers going down when in reality it's the timetable holding things back.
As an occasional user (but supporter) of the HoW it's disappointing but perhaps not surprising that weekday numbers are down since the 2015 timetable. Have the extra early-morning trains picked up any additional business since their introduction? I think there were issues with the changed morning arrival time at Shrewsbury not suiting school and college students, as well as the late-morning trains crossing point being changed from Llanwrtyd to Llan'dod meaning that shopping trips to Llan'dod from the north no longer worked.

Have the Saturday loadings held up? By the look of it the current Saturday timetable is similar to the pre-2014 weekday version.

As you say, the lesson should be that additional trains aren't always an improvement if they adversely affect existing passengers.
 

Gareth Marston

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As an occasional user (but supporter) of the HoW it's disappointing but perhaps not surprising that weekday numbers are down since the 2015 timetable. Have the extra early-morning trains picked up any additional business since their introduction? I think there were issues with the changed morning arrival time at Shrewsbury not suiting school and college students, as well as the late-morning trains crossing point being changed from Llanwrtyd to Llan'dod meaning that shopping trips to Llan'dod from the north no longer worked.

Have the Saturday loadings held up? By the look of it the current Saturday timetable is similar to the pre-2014 weekday version.

As you say, the lesson should be that additional trains aren't always an improvement if they adversely affect existing passengers.

The Cambrian extras were extra new services on top of existing trains= big success. HOW they had to jig diagrams around and destroy existing flows= failure
 

craigybagel

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The Cambrian extras were extra new services on top of existing trains= big success. HOW they had to jig diagrams around and destroy existing flows= failure

Alas, that is indeed exactly what happened. Both lines were crying out for extra services, but only one has been a success.

As an occasional user (but supporter) of the HoW it's disappointing but perhaps not surprising that weekday numbers are down since the 2015 timetable. Have the extra early-morning trains picked up any additional business since their introduction? I think there were issues with the changed morning arrival time at Shrewsbury not suiting school and college students, as well as the late-morning trains crossing point being changed from Llanwrtyd to Llan'dod meaning that shopping trips to Llan'dod from the north no longer worked.

Have the Saturday loadings held up? By the look of it the current Saturday timetable is similar to the pre-2014 weekday version.

As you say, the lesson should be that additional trains aren't always an improvement if they adversely affect existing passengers.

Saturday's are doing well - a lot of the old Llandrindod shopping crowd for example are stil traveling on that day since it's the only day that works. Saturday is often busy down there anyway with all the walkers and shoppers and so on. For the rest of the week I'd like to say things are slowly getting busier on the extra services, but it's really hard to judge, especially as all the free concession tickets in winter affect the loads an awful lot.

Full and standing on that line is not unheard of - but sadly neither is single digitf passenger loads.
 

berneyarms

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The HOWL is difficult to path due to a variety of constraints:

1) Pathing constraints on the mainline between Swansea & Llanelli
2) Pathing constrains on the mainline between Craven Arms & Shrewsbury
3) Location of passing loops on the HOWL
4) Desire to merge HOWL with Shrewsbury-Crewe services

Getting all of these to work together effectively is next to near impossible. Hence the long wait times at passing locations in the weekday timetable.
 

PHILIPE

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Alas, that is indeed exactly what happened. Both lines were crying out for extra services, but only one has been a success.



Saturday's are doing well - a lot of the old Llandrindod shopping crowd for example are stil traveling on that day since it's the only day that works. Saturday is often busy down there anyway with all the walkers and shoppers and so on. For the rest of the week I'd like to say things are slowly getting busier on the extra services, but it's really hard to judge, especially as all the free concession tickets in winter affect the loads an awful lot.

Full and standing on that line is not unheard of - but sadly neither is single digital passenger loads.

The opportunity of a day trip to Llandrindod Wells during the week from the north was lost due to retiming of existing services to accomodate the additional ones which were an initiative from the Welsh Government and which fouled up many travel plans.
Typical Welsh Government. The students travelling to Shrewsbury in the morning lost their suitable service and have to travel half and hour earlier but as they are mostly from Church Stretton and Craven Arms were not involved in the consultation process as these stations are in England.
 

craigybagel

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The HOWL is difficult to path due to a variety of constraints:

1) Pathing constraints on the mainline between Swansea & Llanelli
2) Pathing constrains on the mainline between Craven Arms & Shrewsbury
3) Location of passing loops on the HOWL
4) Desire to merge HOWL with Shrewsbury-Crewe services

Getting all of these to work together effectively is next to near impossible. Hence the long wait times at passing locations in the weekday timetable.

Very true. It needs another passing loop somewhere between Llangynllo and Dolau, and then a 2 hourly service interlinked with the Crewe - Shrewsbury local would be possible, but that big gap between Knighton and Llandrindod messes everything else up.

The opportunity of a day trip to Llandrindod Wells during the week from the north was lost due to retiming of existing services to accomodate the additional ones which were an initiative from the Welsh Government and which fouled up many travel plans.
Typical Welsh Government. The students travelling to Shrewsbury in the morning lost their suitable service and have to travel half and hour earlier but as they are mostly from Church Stretton and Craven Arms were not involved in the consultation process as these stations are in England.

Indeed. The morning arrival into Shrewsbury was a 150 and had people standing on a daily basis, that's how busy it was. It wasn't just the Shrewsbury students who lost out in the new timetable though - there were many who commuted from the Heart of Wales (at least one from as far down the branch as Knucklas) to the college at Hereford, with a handy 10 minute connection at Craven Arms. Under the new timetable, it went up to 40 minutes, and those students are now using alternative transport
 

gareth950

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It seems that Welsh Govt & TfW want to take Ebbw Vale off Network Rail as well........

https://www.transportxtra.com/publi...nment-reduces-nr-srole-in-rail-line-upgrading

Welsh Government reduces NR’s role in rail line upgrading
RAIL
Rhodri Clark
11 May 2018

The Welsh Government is to reduce Network Rail’s role in the troubled upgrade of the Ebbw Vale line in South Wales. The upgrade will now be delivered with the help of the winning bidder for the 15-year Wales and Borders franchise operator and development partner (ODP), who is due to be announced this month.

The Government has already taken the unprecedented step of negotiating the removal of the Core Valley Lines (the rail branches north of Cardiff) from Network Rail’s hands because the Welsh Government has no confidence in NR’s ability to electrify and enhance the infrastructure within the budget available. The upgrade of these lines will be overseen by the ODP.

The Ebbw Vale line further east, and served by trains to/from Cardiff, will remain in Network Rail’s ownership.

The Welsh Government funded the line’s reopening in 2008 but capacity is limited to an hourly four-car train. In 2015 the Government allocated £38m to a scheme that would install seven miles of second track to enable a half-hourly service frequency.

The project has been beset with problems. Network Rail quickly spent £28m of the budget before stopping work, with the most complex tasks – including signalling alterations, bridge reconstruction and new station platforms and access – still outstanding (LTT 16 Feb).

Explaining the way forward to an Assembly committee, Nathan Barnhouse, the Government’s rail programme director, said: “To achieve four services an hour on the Ebbw line requires a significant investment, and, if that’s delivered through Network Rail solely, it exposes us to substantial cost risks.

“What we’re doing is bringing the ODP into the development proposal, so that they can incorporate a four-services-an-hour pattern on the Ebbw line in the future at a more realistic and value for money cost for us.”

Asked about the timescale, transport secretary Ken Skates said: “I can’t answer this because, if I do, it will reveal the technical solution that’s going to be utilised on that particular line.”

Transport for Wales chief executive James Price said: “In the current financial year, we will be remitted by the Welsh Government to explore how we can improve the Maesteg and Ebbw lines, but the fundamental issue that we need to get over here is that those two lines are still held by the UK Government, still held by Network Rail. Therefore, Network Rail and the UK Government are controlling what we can and cannot do.”

He said the UK Government’s cancellation of Cardiff to Swansea electrification “causes us some problems” in relation to the Maesteg line, which branches off the South Wales Main Line at Bridgend.

Although the ODP contract award is imminent, Skates said he was still awaiting “a proposition on the proposed funding arrangements” for the franchise from the UK Government. Asked about a dispute over £1bn in track access charges, publicly aired last summer, Skates replied: “I’m pleased to say that we’ve made excellent progress on that particular issue, and I am very hopeful of a very positive outcome in the coming weeks.”

Price said the ODP contract would refer to a “design and discovery phase”, because issues such as the types of electrification and signalling required would be determined by the winning bidder’s technical solution. “We need to look at the asset through the lens of how we’re going to run it in the future, and we’ve got 18 months to do that before we finally take the asset.”

Skates said the UK Government would have an ongoing role, through an agency agreement, in management of the franchise’s cross-border services.

In return, he wants the Welsh Government to have a say in franchises operating into Wales, such as Great Western.

“I’m seeking reciprocal agreements with the UK Government on those franchises that they are responsible for but which also have components operating in Wales,” he said. “We are looking at a collaboration and co-operation agreement that would see us be able to influence and check the effectiveness and delivery of those franchise operations.”

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Can someone please explain this comment to me: Asked about the timescale, transport secretary Ken Skates said: “I can’t answer this because, if I do, it will reveal the technical solution that’s going to be utilised on that particular line.”
What on earth does he mean by 'technical solution'? Is he trying to get trams up to Ebbw Vale as well? Let's just turn the whole of South Wales into a tramway!
 
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No idea what a 'technical solution' is I'm afraid.

Earlier on in this thread I kept pointing out that the Metro is due to have four trains per hour on all lines. Many on this forum rubbished that concept, but Nathan Barnhouse mentions it here.

Very interesting.

You never know, the WG may surprise us all in a fortnight or so's time.

(stop laughing at the back there!)
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Not surprising that WG still has to get its deal signed off by Westminster, with the awkward word "funding" in there.
Reciprocity in franchise control is interesting.
Will Westminster concede ground on GW, XC and WCP control in Wales, in return for W&B control in England?
 

daikilo

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Can someone please explain this comment to me: Asked about the timescale, transport secretary Ken Skates said: “I can’t answer this because, if I do, it will reveal the technical solution that’s going to be utilised on that particular line.”
What on earth does he mean by 'technical solution'? Is he trying to get trams up to Ebbw Vale as well? Let's just turn the whole of South Wales into a tramway!

I am guessing that the bids from the two bidders are technically different and each has a unique timescale so providing an answer would effectively announce the winning bidder.
 

gareth950

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I am guessing that the bids from the two bidders are technically different and each has a unique timescale so providing an answer would effectively announce the winning bidder.
Well with the new franchise commencing in just 5 months isn't it about time Skates got on and did just that? They've only been going through the process of awarding this franchise for the last 4 years!
 

Dai Corner

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No doubt the timing of the announcement will depend on political factors such as getting maximum or minimum exposure (depending on whether they feel it will be well received or not) and scoring points off the Welsh or Westminster Tories.
 

HH

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The date is already known; just not made public. And it won't be the very last day.
 
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