If Lothian had tried this in 2012/13 when First were open to selling and/or walking away from poorly performing operations, they might have succeeded. First Scotland East is a different beast these days – they’ve ditched most of the deadwood and the hacking back of the Stirling network suggests that they’re planning on sticking around here too. I still think Lothian have misjudged things badly. Their West Lothian plans only make sense if First leave the stage – and it’ll take more than we’ve seen so far to make that happen. One caveat: Lothian have deep pockets and don't have to meet City expectations, so if the management decide to dig in and take the financial hit, they might still win – but it won’t be pretty.
I agree that the First services in WL look as good today as they have in recent history (the simple routes with fifteen minute services on the busiest corridors and half hourly on the others looks about as good as you could hope for from a private company). It seems odd that Lothian should go after them *now*, when they are finally getting their act together (rather than previous years).
But then, we don't know what Lothian's plan is - it's not a reaction to anything by First (if anything, it's come at a time when First have cut back on their services into Edinburgh - half the 38s chopped, one bus fewer per hour along Gorgie Road too), so can't comment on whether they are ahead of target or otherwise.
If they were attacking Stagecoach/ Go-Ahead/ Arrival then I'd agree that it'd be hard to shift the incumbent operator in West Lothian. But this is First we are talking about, and given the financial problems that the group has, it's not inconceivable that they'll be considering walking away - you don't have to take all of their passengers, you only have to take the "10%" of passengers that make the difference between the flagship routes being profitable and marginal - enough to wound them without killing them - then it becomes a question of who has the guts for a longer war of attrition - the council owned company or the private one with the antsy shareholders looking for an excuse to get rid of any awkward operations.
I can't see this working out at all for Lothian - I'm old enough to remember the last time they ventured out to the west, in the early nineties. By the end of 1994 they had admitted defeat against SMT and withdrawn from West Lothian.
It's a completely different market out there and from what I've seen so far (and read on here) First are holding their ground. The mass switch from First to Lothian simply hasn't materialised, and nor is it likely to materialise. Once the losses start stacking up I think that Lothian will realise, like the last time, that West Lothian has been one step too far and pull out.
In fairness, LRT pulled out of West Lothian (and South Queensferry) in the '90s because First were coincidently pulling out of various suburbs of Edinburgh - all coincidental, if the competition authorities want to look at it, but essentially a quid-pro-quo - I don't think it was admitting defeat, it was about getting the SMT CitySprinter minibuses out of the pockets of Edinburgh that they were taking hold of.
