• Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

What happens if HS2 Euston proves to be unbuildable?

Status
Not open for further replies.

SussexSeagull

Member
Joined
13 Aug 2021
Messages
207
Location
Worthing
The UK is littered with started half hearted abandoned schemes that never get finished, especially when the “too difficult” becomes “too expensive”, and follows by political oppourtunity of “weve listened to voters and agree that”, “too much opposition” yada yada yada.

You dont have to go more than 1 mile from Euston to find a failed rail scheme…
Sadly I agree with you. It might be creaking now and some of the branch lines served their purpose but the original rail system gave more than a century of service because we were capable of delivering infrastructure. We don't seem able to think a year in advance let alone a century anymore.

I am sure I will kick myself but what was the failed rail scheme?
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

zwk500

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Jan 2020
Messages
15,192
Location
Bristol
Sadly I agree with you. It might be creaking now and some of the branch lines served their purpose but the original rail system gave more than a century of service because we were capable of delivering infrastructure. We don't seem able to think a year in advance let alone a century anymore.

I am sure I will kick myself but what was the failed rail scheme?
Very few of the original railways were thinking a century in advance - they were private enterprises looking to pay back their shareholders (directly or indirectly) with profit before they died.
 

cle

Established Member
Joined
17 Nov 2010
Messages
4,651
The Central line at North Acton could be connected relatively cheaply. I don't really see the need for the Bakerloo (a new version of the age-old Ealing Broadway extension) - it just gives a longer route to Paddington and the West End, which Crossrail does a perfect job on.

It's the Overground routes which will do a lot of lifting and dispersal.

If HS2 ends at OOC, Euston will still have a ton of long distance services too. So it won't quite be as critical. We won't be seeing EMP or anything like that.
 

SussexSeagull

Member
Joined
13 Aug 2021
Messages
207
Location
Worthing
Very few of the original railways were thinking a century in advance - they were private enterprises looking to pay back their shareholders (directly or indirectly) with profit before they died.
True but by luck or design most of them have given very good service and were extraordinary feats of engineering. Ironically probably the most forward thinking line, the Grand Central, didn't survive Beeching. Some might argue HS2 is it's spiritual successor.
 

AM9

Veteran Member
Joined
13 May 2014
Messages
15,257
Location
St Albans
Yet another post pushing the same old arguments. HS2 is a very large project, and within that there are many unknowns that won't be resolved until the project is nearly completed. Compare the percentage increases in costs with recent motorway schemes:
new lane on the M5 between junctions 19 and 20 which was budgeted to cost £6m, rose to £8m in a revised estimate but cost £17m to complete
crossroads on the A14, budgeted at £5m, which was revised to £6.7m but cost £13.4m to build
see a common theme here? These are just simple laying tarmac to widen/improve traffic flow (for a couple of years until it builds up and uses the extra capacity), little or no technical risk but the main difference has been no persistent attempts to delay the programme which always increases total costs. Crossrail suffered whinges for most of it's planning and building years with predictions that it wouldn't be needed/was technically too difficult to build/was costing too much 'taxpayers' money*/etc., but with it's success since fully opening, there's a distinct silence from the "told you so" brigade. As @Wolfie says in post #18, so much of Crossrail's cost came from London itself so doing something to what has now become an essential part of the Capital's strategic transport network will be quickly stamped on.
I can't see anybody that matters changing their mind on completing the build as currently defined including Euston. Trying to rearrange two existing tube lines, two branches of the Overground and trashing the utility of Crossrail that has been delivered even with post pandemic passener demand, is a non-starter!

* conveniently forgetting that it was costing London's taxpayers money which will enable London the continue to subsidise running the railways elsewhere.
 

stuu

Established Member
Joined
2 Sep 2011
Messages
3,454
Add onto that the fact that anyone who could likely be able deliver is most likely foreign, and that this Government seems allergic to foreigners, then you could say, under the current Government, the project will be unbuildable/impossible.
A look at the list of major contractors working on HS2 will show that while there is some of that sentiment in the more rabid corners of the current government, the people awarding the contracts don't agree
 

zwk500

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Jan 2020
Messages
15,192
Location
Bristol
Add onto that the fact that anyone who could likely be able deliver is most likely foreign, and that this Government seems allergic to foreigners, then you could say, under the current Government, the project will be unbuildable/impossible.
This is quite a bizarre statement - any company involved in HS2 will be big enough that they will have a workforce from around the world including the UK, and the concept of companies having nationalities is quickly becoming outdated. A person's nationality has very little bearing on their ability to manage a project or build a tunnel. And government contracts are awarded according to the published criteria, and the government does not tend to specify 'no foreigners' in it's invitations to tender, as that would lead to very few expressions of interest and quite possibly several legal challenges.
 

Kingston Dan

Member
Joined
19 Apr 2020
Messages
293
Location
N Yorks
What the HS2 Euston projects needs is for the DfT and Treasury to back out and stop changing the specification in a hopeless search to save money. Changing designs half way through and postponing aspects of projects makes things much more expensive as the National Audit Office report shows. Hopefully a new Labour government next year will keep its promise to crack on and build the thing in full.
 

Nottingham59

Established Member
Joined
10 Dec 2019
Messages
2,649
Location
Nottingham
I can't see anybody that matters changing their mind on completing the build as currently defined including Euston.
In a couple of years time, Rachel Reeves (probably) will be asking the questions: (1) What is the cost if we build the paused HS2 Euston? (2) What happens if it doesn't get built?

The answer to (1) seems to be £4.8Bn plus 18% inflation since 2019 = £5.8Bn in 2023. Plus the cost of ten miles of tunnel. So maybe £8Bn by then.

I was more interested in the answer to (2). Which seems to be that HS2 will only be able to handle 8-10tph instead of the design frequency of 17tph. And some people will have a slightly inconvenient journey to the British Library or anywhere on Thameslink. (And if there is a strike or other closure on EL, then OOC is too far to walk.)

But even when HS2 gets to Manchester, the line isn't planned to carry more than 10tph anyway. Or at least not until the Eastern Leg gets built. Or am I missing something?
 

MattRat

On Moderation
Joined
26 May 2021
Messages
2,084
Location
Liverpool
What the HS2 Euston projects needs is for the DfT and Treasury to back out and stop changing the specification in a hopeless search to save money. Changing designs half way through and postponing aspects of projects makes things much more expensive as the National Audit Office report shows. Hopefully a new Labour government next year will keep its promise to crack on and build the thing in full.
Or hand off the project to TFL with a set budget to get it done. Unlikely I know, but TFL would be much more committed, IMO.
 

Bald Rick

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Sep 2010
Messages
32,118
It is going to Euston, end of.

And it is buildable - I watched the team building some of it today!
 

randyrippley

Established Member
Joined
21 Feb 2016
Messages
5,383
Forget Euston
Instead runs trains from OOC via the West London Line to the Waterloo Eurostar terminal
 

HSTEd

Veteran Member
Joined
14 Jul 2011
Messages
18,652
And it is buildable - I watched the team building some of it today!
In my own (nuclear) industry I have seen many a project start without plans on how to complete the project or even a real understanding on whether it is even possible to achieve the objective.

Some projects 'complete' at the cost of billions and then never work at all (see the Sellafield MOX plant)

This occurs despite repeated 'lessons learned' reports saying that this is an incredibly bad idea.

Just because contractors are pouring concrete does not mean that the project is completable.
 
Last edited:

zwk500

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Jan 2020
Messages
15,192
Location
Bristol
Forget Euston
Instead runs trains from OOC via the West London Line to the Waterloo Eurostar terminal
That'll be quite a jump from OOC to the WLL, not to mention rather a surprise to SWR Windsor line drivers as they see HS2 trains called into the platform on top of them.
 

Wolfie

Established Member
Joined
17 Aug 2010
Messages
6,992
Forget Euston
Instead runs trains from OOC via the West London Line to the Waterloo Eurostar terminal
It would take a proportionately silly amount of time to get from OOC to Waterloo, a place where very few travellers from the north are likely to want to go. Not to mention the fact that "Waterloo Eurostar terminal" long ceased to exist and the platforms are in active use by SWR.
 

AM9

Veteran Member
Joined
13 May 2014
Messages
15,257
Location
St Albans
Th
It would take a proportionately silly amount of time to get from OOC to Waterloo, a place where very few travellers from the north are likely to want to go. Not to mention the fact that "Waterloo Eurostar terminal" long ceased to exist and the platforms are in active use by SWR.
That's the trouble with silly points here, once their arguments against an established programme start sliding, the daft (joke?) suggestions come in to escape the losing argument. Joe Rukin would be propud of them. :rolleyes:
 

AM9

Veteran Member
Joined
13 May 2014
Messages
15,257
Location
St Albans
Surely there must be at least some possibility that it won't. The cost savings seem very tempting to those holding the pursestrings.
There won't be any cost saving if passengers don't reach predicted levels because they are dumped in the middle of OOC railwaylands with an inadequate mean of getting to their destination. The whole business case is predicated on volume of passengers, so making it less attractive creates a loss. That may please some here who don't want London to get something that they won't use every week, but as the growth on the WCML has already reached the level predicted for the original opening date, i.e. 2026-9, the success of the services on the line is almost guaranteed.
 

ShadowKnight

Member
Joined
22 Oct 2019
Messages
183
Location
Liverpool
Another silly idea, build the hs2 hs1 link sending the trains to terminate at an expanded Ashford international but also include a simple underground 2 platform station at Euston kings cross st pancras just before it joins the hs1 tunnel. With the through running and terminating at Kent the central London station could not be as costly?
 

AM9

Veteran Member
Joined
13 May 2014
Messages
15,257
Location
St Albans
Another silly idea, build the hs2 hs1 link sending the trains to terminate at an expanded Ashford international but also include a simple underground 2 platform station at Euston kings cross st pancras just before it joins the hs1 tunnel. With the through running and terminating at Kent the central London station could not be as costly?
Any change will cost more, especially if it also causes a delay.
 

Bald Rick

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Sep 2010
Messages
32,118
Surely there must be at least some possibility that it won't. The cost savings seem very tempting to those holding the pursestrings.

But a not insignificant proportion of the cost has already been incurred.


Another silly idea, build the hs2 hs1 link sending the trains to terminate at an expanded Ashford international but also include a simple underground 2 platform station at Euston kings cross st pancras just before it joins the hs1 tunnel. With the through running and terminating at Kent the central London station could not be as costly?

I’m afraid it is silly.

1) there’s nowhere anywhere close to Euston / KX / St Pancras suitable for such an underground station. Even if there was, it would require extensive demolition in / around the area in order to build the surface access.
2) breaking into the existing HS1 tunnels will be very expensive, need lots of land take (again likely to involve residential demolition) and mean the line is closed for some time
3) Expanding Ashford - where, exactly?

in all it would be a lot more expensive, and a lot more disruptive, and take a lot longer.
 

Wolfie

Established Member
Joined
17 Aug 2010
Messages
6,992
There won't be any cost saving if passengers don't reach predicted levels because they are dumped in the middle of OOC railwaylands with an inadequate mean of getting to their destination. The whole business case is predicated on volume of passengers, so making it less attractive creates a loss. That may please some here who don't want London to get something that they won't use every week, but as the growth on the WCML has already reached the level predicted for the original opening date, i.e. 2026-9, the success of the services on the line is almost guaranteed.
Finally someone understands economics.
 

zwk500

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Jan 2020
Messages
15,192
Location
Bristol
Have you tried telling the Government that? Never underestimate their ability to break 'promises'.
If you look back, generally when government has tried to intervene or threatened to cancel projects because of spiralling costs all that's happened is they ended up having to go along with the plans anyway because that's the cheapest way to do it.
See Cameron trying to change the HMS QEII and POW to CATOBAR operation (along with the F35 variant) and Crossrail among others.
 

Nottingham59

Established Member
Joined
10 Dec 2019
Messages
2,649
Location
Nottingham
If you look back, generally when government has tried to intervene or threatened to cancel projects because of spiralling costs all that's happened is they ended up having to go along with the plans anyway because that's the cheapest way to do it.
See Cameron trying to change the HMS QEII and POW to CATOBAR operation (along with the F35 variant) and Crossrail among others.
Sure, but often the projects get cut back in scope and don't deliver what was originally promised.
See electrification to Bristol TM, HS2 to Leeds, 24tph on Thameslink, Ordsall chord/Castlefield, etc etc.
 

zwk500

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Jan 2020
Messages
15,192
Location
Bristol
Sure, but often the projects get cut back in scope and don't deliver what was originally promised.
See electrification to Bristol TM, HS2 to Leeds, 24tph on Thameslink, Ordsall chord/Castlefield, etc etc.
Electrification to Bristol TM (similar to Oxford) needed to wait for the remodelling anyway, and electrification to Cardiff is still a useful thing, HS2 to Leeds was stopping a phase that hadn't really started, 24tph to Thameslink has delivered all the required infrastructure and trains, it's only the services were never introduced. Ordsall Chord infrastructure was delivered, although I will give you the Castlefield saga and lack of 15/16 at Piccadilly.
 

chris2

Member
Joined
25 Apr 2023
Messages
152
Location
Southampton
Interesting piece on the options at Euston in New Civil Engineer

The article outlines a range of reduced platform options, the most sensible of which to me seems to adopt a long-term plan to build all 11 as originally conceived, but in 2 stages, with the first stage including 6 platforms and a grade separated throat.

I’m sure many will complain that this plan will cost more in the end. And that may well be true. However, recent government decisions have made it very clear their priority is short term cash outlay. So if the amount that’s needed to do it one go isn’t on offer, isn’t this the least worst option?
 

Wolfie

Established Member
Joined
17 Aug 2010
Messages
6,992
Interesting piece on the options at Euston in New Civil Engineer

The article outlines a range of reduced platform options, the most sensible of which to me seems to adopt a long-term plan to build all 11 as originally conceived, but in 2 stages, with the first stage including 6 platforms and a grade separated throat.

I’m sure many will complain that this plan will cost more in the end. And that may well be true. However, recent government decisions have made it very clear their priority is short term cash outlay. So if the amount that’s needed to do it one go isn’t on offer, isn’t this the least worst option?
As long as the second phase actually happens, yes. Unfortunately having worked for HMG for years half-assed interim solutions suddenly becoming the final one are more common than is ideal.
 

zwk500

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Jan 2020
Messages
15,192
Location
Bristol
As long as the second phase actually happens, yes. Unfortunately having worked for HMG for years half-assed interim solutions suddenly becoming the final one are more common than is ideal.
Given that the railway needs no help from HMG in making temporary solutions permanent (Pacers and Lewisham flyover, looking at you), I too would share this fear
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top