When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[jfollows]

I have to think that if I'd been out "to bat for" Boris Johnson over the last couple of days informed by a collection of lies from Number 10, I'd be seriously considering my position now. Coffey and Raab have both been spouting complete rubbish based (in part) on information they believed to be true, but which wasn't.

However I wouldn't myself be in the position either, since I can't imagine I'd be a member of Boris Johnson's cabinet, so it's a very hypothetical thought.

But ... if one of them suddenly gets a backbone and a conscience and tells Boris they're out of his web, it could become interestingly worse for him.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Jul 2022 ==

It does appear that the latest shambles from Boris and his team is driving his MPs away.

Adam Payne

@adampayne26
·
2h

A Tory rebel, speaking to me shortly before McDonald’s extraordinary letter and follow-up interview, said they believed for the first time that Boris Johnson would now lose a confidence vote. The handling of the Pincher affair has tipped numerous MPs over the edge

 

[Cloud Strife]

40.3% of the vote versus 48.8% for the Conservatives, 262 seats versus 317 for the Conservatives.
I don't agree with your characterisation, but perhaps you deliberately posted this to get a comment in response like this?
I don't disagree that Corbyn did better than expected and predicted.

Yes, but had the SNP defended their seats in Scotland, it would have been 296 for the Conservatives. Labour would have had 262, the Lib Dems 12, and the SNP 56 - for a total of 330. 326 was needed for a majority, although in practice, Sinn Fein would count as a vote for such a government.

Even if the SNP had performed as expected in the polls (46 seats), then the 320 would have been enough. They could also rely on the four Plaid Cymru seats (which would be confidence/supply like the SNP) and the one Green seat (325), which combined with the Sinn Fein abstentions would get them over the line. There was also discussion within Sinn Fein at the time that they could end the policy of abstaining if it meant blocking Brexit, though it wouldn't have been needed.

It was only the excellent result of the Scottish Conservatives that saved May in 2017.

Speaking of Johnson, how much more can the ordinary MPs take? He's being caught lying on an almost daily basis, he's putting his own cabinet in horrible situations where they're defending his lies, and it's clear that some of them must be at breaking point now.

I do wonder if Johnson won't agree to a referendum in Scotland. He needs a big win at this point, and an independence referendum there would allow him to tell his opponents to shut up and let him fight. If he was to win a second referendum there, it would allow him to pose as the man who defended the Union, which could be a vote winner.

 

[jfollows]

Yes, but had the SNP defended their seats in Scotland, it would have been 296 for the Conservatives. Labour would have had 262, the Lib Dems 12, and the SNP 56 - for a total of 330. 326 was needed for a majority, although in practice, Sinn Fein would count as a vote for such a government.

OK, but when you said that Labour "very nearly won" I took this as meaning "almost won a majority by themselves" so our disagreement is clearer - you meant "almost won a means of being the largest party in a coalition/alliance government" which is fine, but wasn't what I thought you meant.
EDIT And anyway we're probably getting off-topic aren't we?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Jul 2022 ==

Speaking of Johnson, how much more can the ordinary MPs take? He's being caught lying on an almost daily basis, he's putting his own cabinet in horrible situations where they're defending his lies, and it's clear that some of them must be at breaking point now.

I think the developments of the last few days will have pushed enough of them over the edge now.
Boris promised that he'd change back in April when he "grovelled" to Parliament, but of course he hasn't.

 

[thenorthern]

Corbyn was nowhere near being Prime Minister in 2017. You have to remember back then the Liberal Democrats only 2 years earlier were in coalition with the Conservatives which went was like the polar opposite of Corbyn. Also the Liberal Democrats and the SNP wanted a second referendum on Brexit whereas Corbyn made it clear in 2017 that Labour would not be holding a second referendum and would deliver Brexit.

One thing to remember in 2019 is that the novelty of Corbyn had worn off. No mater how many times people wrote #CorbynForPM or #ToriesOut on Twitter and no matter how many times Glastonbury sand "Oh Jeremy Corbyn" he was still in opposition. By 2019 many of his supporters had move on and there wasn't the same support as in 2017. He always spoke as if he was going to change things and that he was very close to being Prime Minister. In reality that wasn't the case.

 

[ainsworth74]

We probably need to take the Jeremy Corbyn chat to the Labour thread from here on I'd say

 

[Cdd89]

I have to think that if I'd been out "to bat for" Boris Johnson over the last couple of days informed by a collection of lies from Number 10, I'd be seriously considering my position now.

I don’t think it’s just politicians thinking this.

I am somewhere in the centre and have tried my best to be fair to Boris, but I became fed up with him about three scandals ago. And (more worryingly) have become disillusioned with politics in general as a result (Lab-LD apparently having zero difference between them, and Tories being a party not serious about governing… while in government).

 

[bspahh]

This is a letter from the Permanent Under-Secretary of the Foreign & Commonwealth Office when Johnson and Pincher were there.

Sent by email

5 July 2022

Ms Kathryn Stone OBE
Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards
House of Commons
London SW1A 0AA

Dear Ms Stone,

THE RT HON CHRISTOPHER PINCHER MP

Five days after Mr Pincher's resignation as deputy chief whip, there remains significant confusion
surrounding complaints about his behaviour prior to the drunkeness he admits at the Carlton Club
on 29 June.

Inaccurate claims by 10 Downing Street continue to be repeated by the media. On 3 July, the BBC
website reported: "No official complaints against [Mr Pincher] were ever made."

This is not true. In the summer of 2019, shortly after he was appointed minister of state at the
Foreign Office, a group of officials complained to me about Mr Pincher's behaviour. I discussed the
matter with the relevant official at the Cabinet Office. (In substance, the allegations were similar to
those made about his behaviour at the Carlton Club.) An investigate upheld the complaintl Mr
Pincher apologised and promised not to repeat the inappropriate behaviour. There was no
repetition at the FCO before he left seven months later.

The same BBC website report continued: "Downing Street has said Boris Johnson was not aware
of any specific allegations when he appointed Mr Pincher deputy chief whip in February." By 4 July,
the BBC website reflected a change in No 10's line: "The prime ministers's official spokesman said
Mr Johnson knew of 'allegations that were either resolved or did not progress to a formal
complaint', adding that 'it was deemed not apppropriate to stop an appointment simply because of
unsubstantiated allegations'."

The original No 10 line is not true, and the modification is still not accurate. Mr Johnson was
briefed in person about the initiation and outcome of the investigation. There was a "formal
complaint". Allegations were "resolved" only in the sense that the investigation was completed; Mr
Pincher was not exonerated. The characterise the allegations as "unsubstantiated" is therefore
wrong.

I am aware that it is unusual to write to you and simultaneously publicise the letter. I am conscious
of the duty owed to the target of an investigation but I act out of my duty towards the victims.
Mr Pincher deceived me and others in 2019. He cannot be allowed to use the confidentiality of the
process three years ago to pursue his predatory behaviour in other contexts.

Yours sincerely,

Simon

McDonald of Salford
Permanent Under-Secretary
Foreign & Commonwealth Office
(2015-2020)

https://twitter.com/SimonMcDonaldUK/status/1544206976820854784/photo/1

 

[Typhoon]

I have to think that if I'd been out "to bat for" Boris Johnson over the last couple of days informed by a collection of lies from Number 10, I'd be seriously considering my position now. Coffey and Raab have both been spouting complete rubbish based (in part) on information they believed to be true, but which wasn't.

However I wouldn't myself be in the position either, since I can't imagine I'd be a member of Boris Johnson's cabinet, so it's a very hypothetical thought.

But ... if one of them suddenly gets a backbone and a conscience and tells Boris they're out of his web, it could become interestingly worse for him.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Jul 2022 ==

It does appear that the latest shambles from Boris and his team is driving his MPs away.

The McDonald letter is pretty damning, if I was asked to go on the media to defend 'Big Dog', I would suddenly go down with laryngitis. This is a former civil servant, he has chosen his words carefully (for instance citing what others have reported) but the message is clear.
To quote a couple of sections - "No official complaints against [Mr Pincher] were ever made". That is not true.
...
Mr Johnson was briefed in person about the initiation and outcome of the investigation. There was a "formal complaint".
...
Mr Pincher was not exonerated. To characterise the allegations as "unsubstantiated" is therefore wrong

EDIT:
Tweet from John Penrose, the former Anti-Corruption Czar (and no-confidencer)

This is dynamite. Honesty is 1 of 7 Nolan Principles of integrity in public life & at the core of the Ministerial Code so a) #10 not telling the truth is another serious breach & b) the PM's promised reset has no credibility because their behaviour hasn't changed at all.

 

[Gloster]

They seem to have wheeled out Michael Fabricant to defend Pincher, which is usually a sign of desperation. As usual, he has managed to take a JCB to the hole.

 

[SuspectUsual]

They seem to have wheeled out Michael Fabricant to defend Pincher, which is usually a sign of desperation. As usual, he has managed to take a JCB to the hole.

And the hapless sycophant Ellis on the commons, trying and failing to find a set of words vague enough to answer the opposition without telling more lies

 

[dgl]

Find it funny that they are trying to excuse Boris not remembering as he's told "thousands of things a day", I wonder how many of them are "No Boris you can't do that".
I'm surprised the government are not trying to push the blame on to "woke lefties" who are not allowing us to objectify people anymore or the victims who "obviously liked the attention that they were getting, and it's only because they turned me down that they are complaining".

 

[Tracked]

Not to worry Boris, Peter Bone to the rescue ....

Peter Bone makes one of the very few pro-Boris Johnson interventions in this debate: "Do you think our constituents are more concerned about an MP they've never heard about or the biggest tax reduction in decades which is going to happen tomorrow?"

It will not be comfortable for Downing St that one of only interventions in its favour is coming from an MP essentially playing down the importance of the story.

Indeed Bone was the only MP, save for the frontbench, defending Boris Johnson and the government in the entire debate

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1544291586980315136

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

If, as the thread title says, it has all gone wrong for the Tories and Johnson, how is it they are still forming the Government?

 

[ainsworth74]

If, as the thread title says, it has all gone wrong for the Tories and Johnson, how is it they are still forming the Government?

Because we've not had a General Election since 2019?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Because we've not had a General Election since 2019?

Do you need a General Election when the RailUK Forums website appears to be more of an opposition than "t'other lot" opposite.....

 

[Typhoon]

If, as the thread title says, it has all gone wrong for the Tories and Johnson, how is it they are still forming the Government?

Self preservation. Too many of them know that if there was a general election tomorrow, they might well be defeated, not because of the opposition but because of flawed leadership.
I am part of the way through watching the debate but I am really only giving my full attention to the Conservative speeches. I realise that he is a rebel, but William Wragg but forward a clear and structured argument, Bernard Jenkin made a powerful point and I'd have put down Jackie Doyle-Price as pretty loyal but still questioned what they were being told. The worrying thing for MPs like these - as well as others who have spoken elsewhere is that they are being tarred with the same brush. I wish I had saved the quote but apparently some MPs were asked at the weekend what they had been doing with the implication that they had been doing a 'Pincher'. Most MPs in all parties are decent people, I may disagree with their support for policies but they are decent nonetheless, and I appreciate that some on the government backbenches have done the right thing and questioned the actions of those leading them. However, as the Minister's defence shows, either they have no defence or they don't care about a defence.
On the supporting side, Peter Bone just used the 'nothing to see here' argument - the debate was about 'Standards in Public Life', if he wants to talk about cost of living, Ukraine, whatever, initiate a debate on them. No-one made him turn up.

 

[jfollows]

Rumours of some PPS (Parliamentary Private Secretary, unpaid gopher to a minister, bottom rung of greasy pole, required to vote with the government) resignations later today.
Also, a lot of talk about the 1922 Committee election, date to be announced tomorrow I think, election date will be soon after announcement, to get the rules changed to hold another vote on Boris before the summer recess (21 July). May just be wishful thinking of some plotters, but there could be real intent to do it if possible.

Jessica Elgot (https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1544334854472585219?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1544334854472585219|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/05/boris-johnson-accused-not-telling-truth-chris-pincher-politics-live)
@jessicaelgot

Atmosphere today in Westminster somehow feels worse than before the confidence vote. Mood much darker. One MP says they had been content to wait for rule change till the autumn but now want it done before recess. Very very different tone.

 

[Giugiaro]

Because we've not had a General Election since 2019?

I don't know what's worse: A general election every 4 years or less, or a general election only after 5 years or more...

 

[kristiang85]

Lots of ructions within the Tory party this evening, including Johnson loyalists, apparently. Could this finally be it?

Imagine if both Starmer and Johnson are forced to resign this week.

 

[jfollows]

Lots of ructions within the Tory party this evening, including Johnson loyalists, apparently. Could this finally be it?

Imagine if both Starmer and Johnson are forced to resign this week.

I doubt it, but Boris is recording a "pooled" interview for TV broadcast shortly ....... in which I predict he'll make semi-apologetic noises which won't actually be an apology, and promise to change things, which won't every amount to anything, especially given that he's incapable of changing himself.

 

[Urobach]

Becoming a bit predictable this

Day 1….It didn’t happen
Day 2….If it happened we didn’t know it happened
Day 3….OK, we knew but didn’t do it deliberately
Day 4….We should have known & we’re sorry
Day 5….Yeah, but Ukraine

 

[jfollows]

Day 1….It didn’t happen
Day 2….If it happened we didn’t know it happened
Day 3….OK, we knew but didn’t do it deliberately
Day 4….We should have known & we’re sorry
Day 5….Yeah, but Ukraine

You've got it! Except that the "we're sorry" bit will have a caveat meaning that nobody is actually sorry in reality.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Jul 2022 ==

Rumours of some PPS (Parliamentary Private Secretary, unpaid gopher to a minister, bottom rung of greasy pole, required to vote with the government) resignations later today.

Will Quince, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Children & Families
Mike Freer, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Exports
both rumoured to be about to resign, their names and threats possibly being broadcast by Number Ten to bounce them away from their resignation plans ...... they are both higher up the pole than a PPS.

 

[Busaholic]

If, as the thread title says, it has all gone wrong for the Tories and Johnson, how is it they are still forming the Government?

Not a line you'll be able to peddle much longer.....

 

[birchesgreen]

If, as the thread title says, it has all gone wrong for the Tories and Johnson, how is it they are still forming the Government?

The thread title says, "When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson" actually, so its a question.

 

[Cowley]

The thread title says, "When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson" actually, so its a question.

It certainly is now that I’ve added a question mark to the title.

 

[Acfb]

Javid has now resigned.

 

[Busaholic]

Javid has now resigned.

The first of many.

 

[jfollows]

Javid has now resigned.

In part because Boris didn't change after the recent significant vote against him.
Ironically Boris was just on TV saying that he should have realised that Pincher wouldn't change, and more and more MPs are realising that he won't change either.
EDIT "humility, grip & new direction" were needed from Boris and none of them have happened or will happen, according to Javid.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Javid has now resigned.

Beat me to it. It's like the collapse has started...

Edit: Sunak has gone too...this must now be the end...will he last today?

 

[TheEdge]

And that's a significant Secretary of State gone, could this finally be it?