When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[jfollows]

The Guardian now reporting (https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ings-about-chris-pincher-amid-new-allegations) that Boris Johnson "probably" knew about allegations about Pincher .... but went and appointed him deputy chief whip in February anyway.

A No 10 source acknowledged that Johnson “probably” knew about general allegations about Pincher and the nickname of “Pincher by name etc” but argued he was unable to look into “unsubstantiated rumour” before appointing him deputy chief whip in February.

So it's OK to appoint someone to a job when you hear allegations about his poor behaviour because - well, because you didn't want to look too closely and wanted to be able to say you didn't know about them and that they were "unsubstantiated". How is that acceptable? Or is it acceptable behaviour for the prime minister when it clearly wouldn't be for any other job? Boris Johnson will think that it's acceptable because he's Boris Johnson, and normal rules don't apply to him, of course.

EDIT The article also observes that Craig Whittaker resigned from the Whip's office on 9 February 2022 "for personal reasons" after Chris Pincher was appointed deputy chief whip on 8 February 2022, and that the two things are probably not unconnected.

 

[D6130]

Interesting to read in the Guardian article that my MP, Craig Whittaker (Con. Calder Valley) resigned from the whips' office back in February as a result of Pincher's appointment. At the time, he merely cited "personal reasons". It has to be said that Whittaker is no saint either, having been the subject of numerous allegations of misbehaviour....including bullying and violence. He was even alleged to have beaten-up his then teenaged son on a local petrol station forecourt on Boxing Day ten years ago.

 

[jfollows]

Interesting to read in the Guardian article that my MP, Craig Whittaker (Con. Calder Valley) resigned from the whips' office back in February as a result of Pincher's appointment. At the time, he merely cited "personal reasons". It has to be said that Whittaker is no saint either, having been the subject of numerous allegations of misbehaviour....including bullying and violence. He was even alleged to have beaten-up his then teenaged son on a local petrol station forecourt on Boxing Day ten years ago.

I agree with you, I was just updating my post when you said this .....

 

[SteveM70]

Interesting to read in the Guardian article that my MP, Craig Whittaker (Con. Calder Valley) resigned from the whips' office back in February as a result of Pincher's appointment. At the time, he merely cited "personal reasons". It has to be said that Whittaker is no saint either, having been the subject of numerous allegations of misbehaviour....including bullying and violence. He was even alleged to have beaten-up his then teenaged son on a local petrol station forecourt on Boxing Day ten years ago.

A puncher taking the moral high ground over a pincher

Such is the modern Tory party

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I don't understand why the dishonourable member for Tamworth can't be forced to apply for the post of "Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds". Alternatively, the Tamworth constituents could organise a recall petition.

I think, morally, he should resign as an MP - it's becoming clear that his behaviour has been pretty disgraceful over a long period of time. But in terms of being forced to resign - realistically you need him to have been actually convicted of something first. Hopefully though he will soon realise his position as MP is no longer tenable and do the decent thing...

In terms of any by-election: I would say Tamworth is one of the few constituencies that the Tories probably stand a chance of holding in a by-election, even in current circumstances. Like Tiverton and Honiton, it's normally a very safe Tory seat with Labour 2nd in 2019. But unlike Tiverton and Honiton, the LibDems have almost no support in Tamworth (and have long struggled in the Midlands anyway), so it'll be hard for them to argue that they are the main challenger. On the other hand, Labour would need a 21.3% swing to take the seat, and Labour just doesn't seem able to manage those kinds of swings. Recent by-elections show the LibDems can achieve that, but Labour generally can't. Possibly the Tories might lose it if both other parties take sufficient votes from them to allow one of them to slip through, but I don't think it's a sure thing.

 

[jfollows]

Another comment attributed to a "former cabinet minister" from https://www.theguardian.com/politic...servative-partys-sense-of-crisis-over-johnson seems to sum up the latest mess:

“No 10’s reaction has been disastrous, combining complete ineptitude with dishonesty. If the prime minister was unaware of this guy’s record, as was the suggestion, he is the only person in the whole of Westminster who was.”

 

[D6130]

the LibDems have almost no support in Tamworth (and have long struggled in the Midlands anyway), so it'll be hard for them to argue that they are the main challenger.

They don't exactly have a huge history of support in North Shropshire either....but there was a massive protest vote there in conjunction with a good, hard-working candidate.

 

[Gloster]

A difference between Tamworth and North Shropshire is that nowadays people are generally less concerned about sexual proclivities than they were: the blame for these are not going to transfer to a replacement candidate at a bye-election. People do care about dodgy financial behaviour and the party trying to let an MP off the hook.

 

[nw1]

A difference between Tamworth and North Shropshire is that nowadays people are generally less concerned about sexual proclivities than they were: the blame for these are not going to transfer to a replacement candidate at a bye-election. People do care about dodgy financial behaviour and the party trying to let an MP off the hook.

They might not be concerned about affairs, etc (which IMO is absolutely the correct view, you can't expect any MP to be an absolute saint in all areas of life) but, if it is proved that Pincher did take part in unconsensual groping etc, that might be a different matter.

But I think @DynamicSpirit has some fair points here about the byelection and the chances of it being a possible Tory win. The rural Midlands is perhaps the very definition of modern Tory heartlands; I made the point the other day about there being a disproportionate Tory swing in this area in recent times (cf. Nuneaton, Labour gain in 1992 but now safe Tory seat).

 

[brad465]

In terms of any by-election: I would say Tamworth is one of the few constituencies that the Tories probably stand a chance of holding in a by-election, even in current circumstances. Like Tiverton and Honiton, it's normally a very safe Tory seat with Labour 2nd in 2019. But unlike Tiverton and Honiton, the LibDems have almost no support in Tamworth (and have long struggled in the Midlands anyway), so it'll be hard for them to argue that they are the main challenger. On the other hand, Labour would need a 21.3% swing to take the seat, and Labour just doesn't seem able to manage those kinds of swings. Recent by-elections show the LibDems can achieve that, but Labour generally can't. Possibly the Tories might lose it if both other parties take sufficient votes from them to allow one of them to slip through, but I don't think it's a sure thing.

The Lib Dems are technically in the middle of the Tories and Labour politically, so in a by-election a number of Tory supporters would not have much concern swinging to Lib Dem, but to swing to Labour is probably too dramatic. If we do get proportional representation I suspect the Tories will lose a large amount of support properly to the Lib Dems, simply because there are a core of Tory support who would rather support the Lib Dems but don't because they know under FPTP it would be a wasted vote.

 

[najaB]

They might not be concerned about affairs, etc (which IMO is absolutely the correct view, you can't expect any MP to be an absolute saint in all areas of life) but, if it is proved that Pincher did take part in unconsensual groping etc, that might be a different matter.

As is often the case, "It's not the crime, it's the cover-up" would seem to apply. The fact that this was apparently a known pattern of behaviour and that he was elevated to a position of responsibility regardless, and the slow response by the party may well result in a fall in the Tory vote.

 

[43096]

The whole Pincher saga seems to be straight out of a Little Britain sketch...

 

[daodao]

The fact that this was apparently a known pattern of behaviour and that he was elevated to a position of responsibility regardless

I wonder whether his behaviour was disregarded so as not to appear homophobic. I can't imagine Margaret Thatcher tolerating it.

Sir Robert Peel (MP for Tamworth 1830-1850) would be turning in his grave; he is buried in the parish church at Draycott Bassett, in the constituency.

A difference between Tamworth and North Shropshire

Part of North Shropshire is really in the Welsh Marches (a traditionally Liberal area), whereas Tamworth is purely West Midlands.

 

[Howardh]

I see Nadine's at the Grand Prix, probably wondering where the net is.

 

[Busaholic]

I see Nadine's at the Grand Prix, probably wondering where the net is.

I heard Chris Pincher attended too, not realising Grand Prix was a French term, so went away disappointed.

 

[jfollows]

Is the MP named? I guess we'll know who it is anyway as they will have the haunted look of someone who has seen what Hell looks like.

Conor Burns apparently (was the MP who walked in to find Boris and Carrie in a "compromising situation" according to Private Eye, but not named as such by Private Eye). Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...n-carrie-symonds-downing-street-b2114733.html which denies they were found "in physical contact". So believe Private Eye or Number Ten. Currently not a contest.

 

[Gloster]

Conor Burns apparently (was the MP who walked in to find Boris and Carrie in a "compromising situation" according to Private Eye, but not named as such by Private Eye). Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...n-carrie-symonds-downing-street-b2114733.html which denies they were found "in physical contact". So believe Private Eye or Number Ten. Currently not a contest.

PPS to Johnson until he resigned in 2018. Minister of State for Trade Policy from 25 July 2019 until he resigned on 4 May 2020 after the Standards Committee found he had used ‘veiled threats’ to use privilege to ‘further his family’s interests’ during a financial dispute involving his father. Appointed Minister of State for Northern Ireland on 16 September 2021. (Information from Wikipedia.)

 

[daodao]

One of Bojo's problems is that he is too kind to his MPs when they have done something wrong, and has to be pressured into dealing with them appropriately. By contrast, his opposite number is a ruthless vindictive man who has treated some of his MPs disgracefully for no good reason, e.g. his predecessor and Long-Bailey. Starmer is a swarmy London lawyer without a sense of humour who won't go down well in the Red Wall seats, so there is hope yet for Bojo if he can ride out the current problems. While the Tories have suffered byelection losses to the Lie Dems recently in rural England, electors in these seats are likely to return Tory MPs at the next general election (as in 2015) because of the risk of letting the SNP (a party that is an enemy of the UK state) gain any influence over the UK government. Starmer may yet receive his comeuppance.

 

[Bayum]

One of Bojo's problems is that he is too kind to his MPs when they have done something wrong, and has to be pressured into dealing with them appropriately. By contrast, his opposite number is a ruthless vindictive man who has treated some of his MPs disgracefully for no good reason, e.g. his predecessor and Long-Bailey. Starmer is a swarmy London lawyer without a sense of humour who won't go down well in the Red Wall seats, so there is hope yet for Bojo if he can ride out the current problems. While the Tories have suffered byelection losses to the Lie Dems recently in rural England, electors in these seats are likely to return Tory MPs at the next general election (as in 2015) because of the risk of letting the SNP (a party that is an enemy of the UK state) gain any influence over the UK government. Starmer may yet receive his comeuppance.

Too kind, too spineless or just plain uninterested unless it is attributed to him.

 

[The Ham]

One of Bojo's problems is that he is too kind to his MPs when they have done something wrong, and has to be pressured into dealing with them appropriately. By contrast, his opposite number is a ruthless vindictive man who has treated some of his MPs disgracefully for no good reason, e.g. his predecessor and Long-Bailey. Starmer is a swarmy London lawyer without a sense of humour who won't go down well in the Red Wall seats, so there is hope yet for Bojo if he can ride out the current problems. While the Tories have suffered byelection losses to the Lie Dems recently in rural England, electors in these seats are likely to return Tory MPs at the next general election (as in 2015) because of the risk of letting the SNP (a party that is an enemy of the UK state) gain any influence over the UK government. Starmer may yet receive his comeuppance.

I would be careful in expecting the Tories to do well, at I've said before in 2015 at the local elections in my ward the Tories got 75% of the votes, 2022 they were 45:40 against the Lib Dems.

In 2019 there was already a noticeable swing towards the Lib Dems.

That's in a seat that the link previously provided detailing how safe each of the seats were was about the 50th safest seat for the Tories.

Could it swap to Lib Dems, well there's always a chance, however that chance is likely to be fairly small. However people feel about the betrayal of the Lib Dems on their time in coalition, that's starting to be reduced by how they feel due to the cuts in services.

Early on most thought that such cuts would impact others, it's starting to impact many many more than they thought.

When they complain to their MP their MP will say things like "that's a matter for your local council", however people are realising that the only reason that the local council is in the position of having to make those cuts are because the central government grants have been cut and cut and cut again.

Yes governments in the mid terms do badly, however few feel richer, safer, more cared for, have better services, etc. and until something changes there's likely to be a level of rebellion against the Tories.

It may not kick them out at the next election, but the risk is likely to grow the longer such issues continue (issues like MP's behaving badly, the PM appearing to only care for himself, cost of living increases, changes to BTL which harm investors, etc.).

 

[Typhoon]

One of Bojo's problems is that he is too kind to his MPs when they have done something wrong, and has to be pressured into dealing with them appropriately.

But have a disagreement over policy and they are out on their ear. MPs whose personal behaviour, as far as I can remember, has not been questioned but vote once, once with their conscience are turfed out. MPs like Justine Greening, Philip Hammond, Anne Milton, Antoinette Sandbach as well as several more well known (and more outspoken) members and those who had the whip restored.

I would rather an MP who voted with their conscience, even if I disagreed with it, than one whose conduct is questionable, perhaps even bordering on criminal.

By contrast, his opposite number is a ruthless vindictive man who has treated some of his MPs disgracefully for no good reason, e.g. his predecessor and Long-Bailey. Starmer is a swarmy London lawyer without a sense of humour who won't go down well in the Red Wall seats, so there is hope yet for Bojo if he can ride out the current problems.

The shadow of antisemitism hangs heavy over Labour. Sections of the media will sniff out any weakness in that area and seize upon it. Is Starmer being too heavy handed? Quite possibly but just as with Kinnock and Militant, the message needs to be got across that Labour is taking a different direction. There are no prizes for being Her Majesty's (fairly) Loyal Opposition. Humourless - I agree, it always seems forced to me.

 

[nw1]

One of Bojo's problems is that he is too kind to his MPs when they have done something wrong, and has to be pressured into dealing with them appropriately. By contrast, his opposite number is a ruthless vindictive man who has treated some of his MPs disgracefully for no good reason, e.g. his predecessor and Long-Bailey. Starmer is a swarmy London lawyer without a sense of humour who won't go down well in the Red Wall seats, so there is hope yet for Bojo if he can ride out the current problems. While the Tories have suffered byelection losses to the Lie Dems recently in rural England, electors in these seats are likely to return Tory MPs at the next general election (as in 2015) because of the risk of letting the SNP (a party that is an enemy of the UK state) gain any influence over the UK government. Starmer may yet receive his comeuppance.

While the economical-with-the-truth, lockdown-imposing but not lockdown-following, egotistical, loyalty-demanding, Paterson-defending, extremely privileged, Eton-educated (which I wouldn't have otherwise mentioned, but you bring up Starmer as being a "swarmy (sic) London lawyer" so it's fair game), happy-to-resort-to-right-wing-populist-nonsense-if-it-gets-him-votes (e.g the "spaffed up the wall" and burqa comments) Boris Johnson is ok? Whatever things Starmer may have done (he's not a saint, I will grant that), surely an objective judgment of the two men would consider Johnson to have more faults.

I've said this before, but not all of us British voters are into personality-obsessed, reactionary right wing politics. Many of us dislike Johnson more than any other prime minister of modern times.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I've said this before, but not all of us British voters are into personality-obsessed, reactionary right wing politics. Many of us dislike Johnson more than any other prime minister of modern times.

But how many of us would have been happy with a Prime Minister Corbyn...and all the Momentum baggage that would have entailed?

 

[nw1]

But how many of us would have been happy with a Prime Minister Corbyn...and all the Momentum baggage that would have entailed?

Probably not many. I am not a Corbyn fan, especially, and indeed considered him a liability for Labour. That (Corbynism and Momentum-supporting) is not my political position, for point of avoidance of doubt.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Do you ever get the feeling that the role of British Prime Minister is not one that will win any popularity contest, irrespective of which party they lead?

 

[nw1]

Do you ever get the feeling that the role of British Prime Minister is not one that will win any popularity contest, irrespective of which party they lead?

Once they've been in the role for a while, yes. I think many of us liked Blair prior to, and in the early days of, him becoming PM but then our opinion of him waned the longer he was in office. Doubtless there were people who at first welcomed Thatcher in 1979 but then thought she went too far in her early years.

But in the current case I think we have two sharply contrasting personalities. I will admit to there being probably stronger and more charismatic people that could lead Labour, but I would certainly choose Starmer over Johnson and suspect I am not alone.

 

[Lost property]

While the economical-with-the-truth, lockdown-imposing but not lockdown-following, egotistical, loyalty-demanding, Paterson-defending, extremely privileged, Eton-educated (which I wouldn't have otherwise mentioned, but you bring up Starmer as being a "swarmy (sic) London lawyer" so it's fair game), happy-to-resort-to-right-wing-populist-nonsense-if-it-gets-him-votes (e.g the "spaffed up the wall" and burqa comments) Boris Johnson is ok? Whatever things Starmer may have done (he's not a saint, I will grant that), surely an objective judgment of the two men would consider Johnson to have more faults.

I've said this before, but not all of us British voters are into personality-obsessed, reactionary right wing politics. Many of us dislike Johnson more than any other prime minister of modern times.

A pretty accurate summary really.

However, with regard to your last line, it's difficult to make a clear distinction here between Boris and Thatcher...both being equally repulsive in their own right.

 

[nw1]

A pretty accurate summary really.

However, with regard to your last line, it's difficult to make a clear distinction here between Boris and Thatcher...both being equally repulsive in their own right.

Not a fan of Thatcher (to put it mildly) but at least I get the impression she genuinely believed in her (flawed, IMO) political philosophy. Johnson appears to believe in nothing other than ego and power, and will do whatever it takes to massage the former and maintain the latter.

Also Thatcher knew when it was time to go and didn't stay on to fight the 1992 election against just about everyone's advice. Johnson appears not to.

 

[jfollows]

But how many of us would have been happy with a Prime Minister Corbyn...and all the Momentum baggage that would have entailed?

I voted Labour in 2019 because I would have been happier (albeit still unhappy) with Corbyn as Prime Minister than Boris Johnson. Corbyn couldn't run anything, the proverbial brewery party, the Labour party, the country, but he'd most likely have been in coalition with saner people if he'd made it. In all reality I knew this wasn't going to happen, but I wan't going to vote for Esther McVey anyway and I felt my vote was more meaningful being for something than against something or someone. Corbyn was a total disaster for his party, and would have been a disaster for the country, but - in my opinion - less of a disaster than Boris Johnson has proved to be.

 

[D6130]

Corbyn was a total disaster for his party, and would have been a disaster for the country, but - in my opinion - less of a disaster than Boris Johnson has proved to be.

In fairness, Corbyn never wanted to be party leader....let alone Prime Minister. He had always been a back-bencher, focussing largely on local North London issues, but had his arm twisted by members of Momentum who wanted him as a figurehead.