When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[Yew]

In fairness, Corbyn never wanted to be party leader....let alone Prime Minister. He had always been a back-bencher, focussing largely on local North London issues, but had his arm twisted by members of Momentum who wanted him as a figurehead

That is untrue, momentum was not founded until after JC was chosen as party leader.

 

[JamesT]

In fairness, Corbyn never wanted to be party leader....let alone Prime Minister. He had always been a back-bencher, focussing largely on local North London issues, but had his arm twisted by members of Momentum who wanted him as a figurehead.

Apparently there was a bit of Buggin's Turn amongst that group of MPs (Abbott, McDonnell, Corbyn, etc.) as to who would provide the Left challenger for the leadership. He got lucky that some MPs outside of that grouping decided to lend their votes and he got through to the vote of the whole membership.
I think if he really disliked being leader then he would have thrown in the towel after getting the vote of no confidence from the rest of the parliamentary party.

 

[Typhoon]

Apparently there was a bit of Buggin's Turn amongst that group of MPs (Abbott, McDonnell, Corbyn, etc.) as to who would provide the Left challenger for the leadership. He got lucky that some MPs outside of that grouping decided to lend their votes and he got through to the vote of the whole membership.

Naming the guilty - they included Frank Field, Margaret Beckett, Clive Efford (who subsequently supported Owen Smith against Corbyn), David Lammy, Sadiq Khan. He got 36 votes when he needed 35.

Corbyn would have been quite happy being the conscience of the party, reminding it of its left wing roots. I gather he is an excellent constituency MP, instead he is thrust into the limelight in a role he was ill-equipped for and has ended up as a parliamentary outcast on an issue on which his views are only important because he is a former leader, rather than a rather rebellious backbencher,

Edit: Next time will it be Burgon's Turn?

 

[Busaholic]

Apparently there was a bit of Buggin's Turn amongst that group of MPs (Abbott, McDonnell, Corbyn, etc.) as to who would provide the Left challenger for the leadership. He got lucky that some MPs outside of that grouping decided to lend their votes and he got through to the vote of the whole membership.
I think if he really disliked being leader then he would have thrown in the towel after getting the vote of no confidence from the rest of the parliamentary party.

Being a fundamentally weak man, and not especially bright, even by MPs' standards, he'll have been 'persuaded' by the others to carry on for the sake of the movement: I suspect only a veto from his current wife would have made a difference.

 

[Lost property]

Not a fan of Thatcher (to put it mildly) but at least I get the impression she genuinely believed in her (flawed, IMO) political philosophy. Johnson appears to believe in nothing other than ego and power, and will do whatever it takes to massage the former and maintain the latter.

Also Thatcher knew when it was time to go and didn't stay on to fight the 1992 election against just about everyone's advice. Johnson appears not to.

Thatcher certainly knew what she was doing when she, and her acolytes, remember the support she got away from politicians, commenced their malicious actions under the guise of "Government ".

Boris however is different in this respect but, even more repulsive due to his well documented amoral lying narcissus nature, his total lack of credibility on the international stage, despite the fact he, and only he, thinks otherwise and the sheer arrogance that makes him feel he is beyond reproach.

Thatcher didn't go as quietly as you say....she had to be prised almost kicking and screaming out of office, and the front door, when eventually members of her own Cabinet finally had the moral courage to tell her she was being evicted. That image and shot in the car as she was driven away caused many to celebrate...including me.

We look forward to Carrie, who is as culpable as Boris in respect of his arrogance, slapping on the stage tears for her own departure. I should add, usually, politicians family members are immune from criticism relating to the politician....in Carries case, this is not applicable.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

We look forward to Carrie, who is as culpable as Boris in respect of his arrogance, slapping on the stage tears for her own departure. I should add, usually, politicians family members are immune from criticism relating to the politician....in Carries case, this is not applicable.

There was a posting some time earlier on this thread from a contributor which gave the impression that "Carrie" had "shacked up" with Zac Goldsmith, which twice I queried but never received a posting response. Is she the type of woman to have done this, but still keeping her options open?

The "Carrie" that I remember best had a bucket-full of pigs blood tipped over her at the school prom and then extracted a terrible response.

 

[nw1]

There was a posting some time earlier on this thread from a contributor which gave the impression that "Carrie" had "shacked up" with Zac Goldsmith, which twice I queried but never received a posting response. Is she the type of woman to have done this, but still keeping her options open?

The "Carrie" that I remember best had a bucket-full of pigs blood tipped over her at the school prom and then extracted a terrible response.

The Carrie I remember doesn't live here any more. (sorry)

 

[birchesgreen]

In fairness, Corbyn never wanted to be party leader....let alone Prime Minister. He had always been a back-bencher, focussing largely on local North London issues, but had his arm twisted by members of Momentum who wanted him as a figurehead.

I don't think he expected to win but enjoyed it when he did.

There was a posting some time earlier on this thread from a contributor which gave the impression that "Carrie" had "shacked up" with Zac Goldsmith, which twice I queried but never received a posting response. Is she the type of woman to have done this, but still keeping her options open?

The reason i didn't reply was that it was a bit of throwaway tittle tattle based on internet rumours you seem to have become obsessed with.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The reason i didn't reply was that it was a bit of throwaway tittle tattle based on internet rumours you seem to have become obsessed with.

Then why on earth did you put that information in a posting on this website?

As the moderators say, "what is your source" and the link to it

 

[thenorthern]

Regarding Pincher I think it would be best for Labour and the Liberal Democrats if he didn't resign. It's likely that the Conservatives would hold onto Tamworth in a by-election so it would be a boost for Boris Johnson.

The talk of the Liberal Democrats winning Tamworth are more than idiotic, it's not going to happen.

 

[birchesgreen]

Then why on earth did you put that information in a posting on this website?

I dunno, maybe i am just a loathsome socialist.

 

[Gloster]

There was a posting some time earlier on this thread from a contributor which gave the impression that "Carrie" had "shacked up" with Zac Goldsmith, which twice I queried but never received a posting response. Is she the type of woman to have done this, but still keeping her options open?

The "Carrie" that I remember best had a bucket-full of pigs blood tipped over her at the school prom and then extracted a terrible response.

I suspect it was a jokey reference to occasional comments in Private Eye, in the spoof PM’s Fakebook pages, about Carrie’s mother making off stage comments on the lines of ‘Zac being much nicer’. Carrie may have had a brief dalliance with Goldsmith before she got involved with Johnson, but that is definitely unconfirmed. Even someone who dislikes them all as much as I do doesn’t think there is anything in it, but you never know where Johnson’s long- and short-term relationships might be going.

 

[birchesgreen]

Lets face it, with this lot anything can happen.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I suspect it was a jokey reference to occasional comments in Private Eye, in the spoof PM’s Fakebook pages, about Carrie’s mother making off stage comments on the lines of ‘Zac being much nicer’. Carrie may have had a brief dalliance with Goldsmith before she got involved with Johnson, but that is definitely unconfirmed. Even someone who dislikes them all as much as I do doesn’t think there is anything in it, but you never know where Johnson’s long- and short-terms relationship might be going.

He's got a long way to catch up to Henry VIII and Edward VII, who were very fond of the ladies.

 

[Busaholic]

Regarding Pincher I think it would be best for Labour and the Liberal Democrats if he didn't resign. It's likely that the Conservatives would hold onto Tamworth in a by-election so it would be a boost for Boris Johnson.

The talk of the Liberal Democrats winning Tamworth are more than idiotic, it's not going to happen.

The anti-Tory vote in Tamworth could certainly be sufficiently divided to let the Tory in - if a by-election. the number of Blue voters who stay at home in protest could be decisive.

 

[baz962]

While the economical-with-the-truth, lockdown-imposing but not lockdown-following, egotistical, loyalty-demanding, Paterson-defending, extremely privileged, Eton-educated (which I wouldn't have otherwise mentioned, but you bring up Starmer as being a "swarmy (sic) London lawyer" so it's fair game), happy-to-resort-to-right-wing-populist-nonsense-if-it-gets-him-votes (e.g the "spaffed up the wall" and burqa comments) Boris Johnson is ok? Whatever things Starmer may have done (he's not a saint, I will grant that), surely an objective judgment of the two men would consider Johnson to have more faults.

I've said this before, but not all of us British voters are into personality-obsessed, reactionary right wing politics. Many of us dislike Johnson more than any other prime minister of modern times.

Sorry. And for the record I'm not a Johnson fan , but I can't despise any pm more than Blair.

 

[birchesgreen]

Maybe the best bet for Tamworth would be for a Martin Bell like independent and the Libs and Labs standing aside.

 

[nw1]

The anti-Tory vote in Tamworth could certainly be sufficiently divided to let the Tory in - if a by-election. the number of Blue voters who stay at home in protest could be decisive.

Ironically it's this sort of seat which the Tories have the best chance of holding.

The deeply-rural seats, as we have seen, can produce Lib Dem wins.

Ex-industrial areas have a good chance of being won by Labour.

The problem with Tamworth is it's not rural enough for the Lib Dems, or ex-industrial enough for Labour. And not a university town or socially-liberal suburban seat either (the Lib Dems would doubtless have a good chance of winning a hypothetical Solihull byelection in the same vague area).

 

[Acfb]

The anti-Tory vote in Tamworth could certainly be sufficiently divided to let the Tory in - if a by-election. the number of Blue voters who stay at home in protest could be decisive.

Can't see how the Tories lose Tamworth now TBH (even though Labour held it from a previous by election in 1996 until 2010).

Best case scenario for Labour would be something like:

Con 50 (-16)
Lab 40 (+16)
Others 10

(And this is factoring in an above average recovery from 2019 as that result was so bad).

To win seat in a general election Labour would need a bigger landslide than 1997.

 

[brad465]

Regarding Pincher I think it would be best for Labour and the Liberal Democrats if he didn't resign. It's likely that the Conservatives would hold onto Tamworth in a by-election so it would be a boost for Boris Johnson.

Pincher staying in post also degrades the reputation of the Tory party further, especially as more revelations emerge, such as claims Johnson knew about past complaints/behaviour before making him Deputy Chief Whip.

 

[Busaholic]

Pincher staying in post also degrades the reputation of the Tory party further, especially as more revelations emerge, such as claims Johnson knew about past complaints/behaviour before making him Deputy Chief Whip.

The Sunday Politics South West BBC1 programme yesterday made interesting watching - I regret I'm unable to provide a link to it, but it was 'live' and some of it came from the Devon County Show. Two of the politicians interviewed one after the other were Neil Parrish, now an ex-MP of course, and his former neighbour the MP for East Devon. Parrish was asked to contrast the reaction of the Tory party to his alleged offences with that to Pincher's. He spoke with controlled anger about how his pleas to the Whips Office for help with his case were totally ignored, and said that in his opinion the message he was finally given by the Chief Whip would actually have emanated from the Deputy Chief Whip. The East Devon MP, whose name I forget, was then hardly any more supportive of Pincher's position. I have a feeling almost all of the non-payroll Tory MPs in the South West, beyond the most vacuous, are now convinced that unless Johnson is ditched pretty pronto their seats will definitely be going down the Swanee.

 

[bspahh]

The Sunday Politics South West BBC1 programme yesterday made interesting watching - I regret I'm unable to provide a link to it, but it was 'live' and some of it came from the Devon County Show. Two of the politicians interviewed one after the other were Neil Parrish, now an ex-MP of course, and his former neighbour the MP for East Devon. Parrish was asked to contrast the reaction of the Tory party to his alleged offences with that to Pincher's. He spoke with controlled anger about how his pleas to the Whips Office for help with his case were totally ignored, and said that in his opinion the message he was finally given by the Chief Whip would actually have emanated from the Deputy Chief Whip. The East Devon MP, whose name I forget, was then hardly any more supportive of Pincher's position. I have a feeling almost all of the non-payroll Tory MPs in the South West, beyond the most vacuous, are now convinced that unless Johnson is ditched pretty pronto their seats will definitely be going down the Swanee.

Its available here https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0019131/politics-south-west-03072022

 

[thenorthern]

The anti-Tory vote in Tamworth could certainly be sufficiently divided to let the Tory in - if a by-election. the number of Blue voters who stay at home in protest could be decisive.

Ironically it's this sort of seat which the Tories have the best chance of holding.

The deeply-rural seats, as we have seen, can produce Lib Dem wins.

Ex-industrial areas have a good chance of being won by Labour.

The problem with Tamworth is it's not rural enough for the Lib Dems, or ex-industrial enough for Labour. And not a university town or socially-liberal suburban seat either (the Lib Dems would doubtless have a good chance of winning a hypothetical Solihull byelection in the same vague area).

Tamworth was Labour until 2010 so Labour have the best chance of winning it, Labour isn't currently getting the swing needed in by elections to gain the seat so I think Labour would struggle.

In regards to the Liberal Democrats they have no chance. Out of all the counties in England I would say Staffordshire is the one where the party does worst. It's important to remember that unlike the other recent Liberal Democrat victories there has never been a Liberal Democrat MP elected in Staffordshire or a Liberal Democrat councillor elected in Tamworth, the party just doesn't seem to grasp voters in the Creative County and it's obvious why.

 

[nw1]

Can't see how the Tories lose Tamworth now TBH (even though Labour held it from a previous by election in 1996 until 2010).

Best case scenario for Labour would be something like:

Con 50 (-16)
Lab 40 (+16)
Others 10

(And this is factoring in an above average recovery from 2019 as that result was so bad).

To win seat in a general election Labour would need a bigger landslide than 1997.

That sharply demonstrates how seats such as this have drifted rightwards in recent years, more than the national average. The Midlands is also of course one of the areas to most strongly support Brexit, but I wonder what the root cause of the Midlands (outside of Birmingham, Coventry, Leicester, Nottingham, etc) becoming more small-c conservative than the national average in recent years is? Obviously for whatever reason, Major in 1997, Hague in 2001 and Howard in 2005 did not appeal to this area sufficiently to win these seats, but in recent years the small-town Midlands have become Tory Central. "M1 seats" or "WCML seats" perhaps geographically describe this kind of seat - and this illustrates that they are not isolated and cut-off from the outside world, often a factor in small-c conservatism. Tamworth has fast rail links to both Birmingham and London.

Conceivable that after the next election Esher will not have a Tory MP, but former Labour strongholds in the Midlands will.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

That sharply demonstrates how seats such as this have drifted rightwards in recent years, more than the national average. The Midlands is also of course one of the areas to most strongly support Brexit, but I wonder what the root cause of the Midlands (outside of Birmingham, Coventry, Leicester, Nottingham, etc) becoming more small-c conservative than the national average in recent years is? Obviously for whatever reason, Major in 1997, Hague in 2001 and Howard in 2005 did not appeal to this area sufficiently to win these seats, but in recent years the small-town Midlands have become Tory Central. "M1 seats" or "WCML seats" perhaps geographically describe this kind of seat - and this illustrates that they are not isolated and cut-off from the outside world, often a factor in small-c conservatism.

Conceivable that after the next election Esher will not have a Tory MP, but former Labour strongholds in the Midlands will.

Perhaps this was really what was meant by "levelling-up"

 

[Typhoon]

The Sunday Politics South West BBC1 programme yesterday made interesting watching - ...

The East Devon MP, whose name I forget, was then hardly any more supportive of Pincher's position. I have a feeling almost all of the non-payroll Tory MPs in the South West, beyond the most vacuous, are now convinced that unless Johnson is ditched pretty pronto their seats will definitely be going down the Swanee.

Simon Jupp. He's got every reason to worry; although he got (just over) half the votes in 2019, 40% went to an independent with the Labour and LibDem vote collapsing. She is described as '[f]ormerly "the most strident and annoying female in the whole history of British opposition politics"' (according to her website)*. She fought very much on local issues and, although she has stepped back from active politics since last year, might be persuaded to stand again. Her opinions of the current administration are not what you might call muted:

The worst government in history endlessly cheats by ensuring it change the rules in its favour – see the removal of the Electoral Commission’s teeth, the weakening of the rules on overseas donations, voter ID and the proposed boundary changes. It then plays dirty tricks and smears its opponents.

From https://eastdevonwatch.org/2022/05/...-want-candidate-alliances-says-claire-wright/

* - that alone would get my vote.

 

[takno]

Simon Jupp. He's got every reason to worry; although he got (just over) half the votes in 2019, 40% went to an independent with the Labour and LibDem vote collapsing. She is described as '[f]ormerly "the most strident and annoying female in the whole history of British opposition politics"' (according to her website)*. She fought very much on local issues and, although she has stepped back from active politics since last year, might be persuaded to stand again. Her opinions of the current administration are not what you might call muted:


From https://eastdevonwatch.org/2022/05/...-want-candidate-alliances-says-claire-wright/

* - that alone would get my vote.

It's a really interesting seat. She was very much an independent in the "LibDems calling themselves the residents party" mould, and appealed to a lot of incomers to the area as well as traditionally independent-minded Devon locals. It's an area undergoing a lot of population change which could conceivably go LibDem even if she didn't stand again.

 

[Cloud Strife]

In fairness, Corbyn never wanted to be party leader....let alone Prime Minister. He had always been a back-bencher, focussing largely on local North London issues, but had his arm twisted by members of Momentum who wanted him as a figurehead.

I think it's worth remembering that Corbyn very nearly won the 2017 election. Had the SNP not fallen back considerably in Scotland, a Labour-Lib Dem government with confidence/supply from the SNP would have almost certainly taken power. The Tories were saved by Ruth Davidson in Scotland, nothing more.

Corbyn lost his way afterwards, but his performance in the 2017 election was nothing to be ashamed of.

 

[jfollows]

I think it's worth remembering that Corbyn very nearly won the 2017 election.

40.3% of the vote versus 48.8% for the Conservatives, 262 seats versus 317 for the Conservatives.
I don't agree with your characterisation, but perhaps you deliberately posted this to get a comment in response like this?
I don't disagree that Corbyn did better than expected and predicted.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

40.3% of the vote versus 48.8% for the Conservatives, 262 seats versus 317 for the Conservatives.
I don't agree with your characterisation, but perhaps you deliberately posted this to get a comment in response like this?
I don't disagree that Corbyn did better than expected and predicted.

Why then, instead of building on such a good base, a mere two years later in 2019 saw a totally different Labour Party percentage vote and seat gained statistic.