When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[jfollows]

With the cost of fuel and train fares / cancellations, making a trip to Lahdan, guv, would be prohibitively expensive for many of us in the dark hinterland known as "the Regions "......a trip to the supermarket to acquire celebratory alcoholic refreshment however is an entirely different matter...

I did this yesterday as a personal commiseration (/self-medication) following a wisdom tooth extraction (not horrible, it was just a bit old and knackered like the rest of me) and I made sure to buy enough to transition to a celebration today ......

 

[Busaholic]

Look on the bright side, IF, he stays until Autumn, then at least Raab won't be, notionally, in charge....however, the hospitality sector and sales of alcohol can expect a surge in their profits...we await the Boris version of events at a "suitably emotional " podium speech...with or without Carrie...to add some pathos to the sad occasion....the dog and the cat will be delivering their own speeches later.

If Raab plays at being in charge for a while, will it be the first case of a winker replacing a w*nker?

 

[WatcherZero]

The thing is even through all this he has continued to send people out to lie for him.
Remember last night they were briefing that contrary to reports Nadhim Zawahi was part of the ministerial delegation that had asked Boris to resign he was supportive and planning new tax cuts. In his resignation letter this morning he says he did ask Boris to resign yesterday alongside his colleagues.

Breaking:
Yougov snap poll of Conservative members asking who they want as their next leader, of the half dozen options Ben Wallace scored 48% way ahead of 2nd Liz Truss on 24%.

 

[najaB]

The thing is even through all this he has continued to send people out to lie for him.

And the people who were sent out must've known (or at the very least suspected) that they were being asked to peddle lies* to the public.

*As opposed to normal government half-truths.

 

[Busaholic]

So even if there's no functioning government, it doesn't really matter very much.

I understand the context of your statement, but has it really come to this?! It's a very bleak, nihilistic view. Putin and his warmongers will be besides themselves with delight.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Depends, May's contest lasted only 2 weeks after a dramatic withdrawal of candidates meant even a member's ballot wasn't necessary. That's not to say that will happen this time, although if Johnson decides to do anymore damage in the next 2 months that's untenable the contenders may try and come to an agreement to get a new one appointed quicker.

Yes that's true about the May contest. But I would say that on balance that was a bad thing: It meant that Theresa May became PM without really having to do any campaigning, and without getting seriously tested in debates. That meant that no-one really noticed that she had very little ability to convey passion or to connect with and inspire people - a weakness that I would say played a huge part in dooming her premiership. Had there been a proper election spread out over 1-2 months, then I imagine that weakness would've become apparent, and someone else would've been elected instead.

Not saying there's no risk with a prolonged election - it's always possible that someone unsuitable manages to get elected (Mumble mumble Labour leadership Corbyn mumble mumble), but the risk is probably lower if you allow time for a 'proper' election.

 

[najaB]

Putin and his warmongers will be besides themselves with delight.

Well, given that the last direction given by the Government was "arm Ukraine to the teeth", and the MoD is very much on board with that policy it might not be so good for Putin.

 

[WatcherZero]

Report some Conservatives are considering Theresa May as a caretaker Prime Minister.

 

[brad465]

Breaking:
Yougov snap poll of Conservative members asking who they want as their next leader, of the half dozen options Ben Wallace scored 48% way ahead of 2nd Liz Truss on 24%.

Ben Wallace would have competency, but on the campaign trail he may struggle as he isn't currently well known and doesn't have a shining personality.

 

[Busaholic]

Breaking:
Yougov snap poll of Conservative members asking who they want as their next leader, of the half dozen options Ben Wallace scored 48% way ahead of 2nd Liz Truss on 24%.

As someone never likely to be a Conservative member, I'd be relatively happy to see Wallace as leader, except that he has high hopes of getting the top NATO job, which might not be a bad thing.

 

[jfollows]

Report some Conservatives are considering Theresa May as a caretaker Prime Minister.

I've heard the reports but I don't take this seriously although I wouldn't object if it came to pass.
I think it's backward-looking and implies that there's nobody else capable of being "caretaker"; whilst that may in fact be true I don't think it is really, even if it's someone fairly useless like Dominic Raab he'd be up to holding the reins, with the caveat that it'd be harder if he were also going after the job permanently.
EDIT Nick Gibb calls for a caretaker who won't also be a candidate, so for sure that includes Theresa May.

 

[dosxuk]

someone else would've been elected instead.

Yeah, Andrea "Being a mother gives me an edge on May" Leadsom.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I've heard the reports but I don't take this seriously although I wouldn't object if it came to pass.
I think it's backward-looking and implies that there's nobody else capable of being "caretaker"; whilst that may in fact be true I don't think it is really, even if it's someone fairly useless like Dominic Raab he'd be up to holding the reins, with the caveat that it'd be harder if he were also going after the job permanently.
EDIT Nick Gibb calls for a caretaker who won't also be a candidate, so for sure that includes Theresa May.

Raab has ruled himself out as a contender probably to ensure he at least gets his name in the history books as PM as he knows he has no chance in the leadership election

 

[Annetts key]

Just to answer this question properly:

In short, there are senior civil servants who run things on the basis of 'no changes'. So, they sign off on things needed to keep the previous state of affairs in place, but they don't do anything 'new' unless they're directed to do so by Parliament. If you look at Northern Ireland right now, this is how things are done: the civil servants implement the decisions made by the previous NI Executive.

So even if there's no functioning government, it doesn't really matter very much.

Yes, I’m aware that the civil service can continue to run the day to day running of the country (like they normally do). Ministers are there to set policy. A lack of anyone to change policy for a short term is not a problem. However, if events mean a policy decision is needed, that’s when there could be difficulties.

So with Northern Ireland previously, the various department budgets could not be increased, causing a gradual worsening of some services as inflation reduced the amount that the existing budget could buy.

With inflation approaching 10% and still increasing…

And currently reports are that Boris does not want to step down as PM until just before the Conservative party conference. That’s a fair chunk of time.

Although there are also advantages in their being a lack of ministers, as in most of the controversial laws are very unlikely to be passed.

 

[jfollows]

Roger Boulton on Sky making the point, with which I agree, that there's an emerging consensus that since this whole debacle is about Boris Johnson's personality it would be inappropriate to allow him to continue in post until October as he wants, and that a "caretaker" PM needs to be put in place promptly to replace him. Essentially very few of the resignations will be rescinded if it means that the people who resigned and are needed to run government if they have to work for Boris Johnson for three more months.

Raab has ruled himself out as a contender probably to ensure he at least gets his name in the history books as PM as he knows he has no chance in the leadership election

Thank you, I don't think much of the man but I think he'd be a suitable "caretaker" and better than having Boris sticking around until October.

 

[Shrop]

Yougov snap poll of Conservative members asking who they want as their next leader, of the half dozen options Ben Wallace scored 48% way ahead of 2nd Liz Truss on 24%.

Let's not fall into the trap of simply going for people who are already well known - that's how we got Boris. Try doing some research on Suella Braverman. At least she tells it like it is (ie complete opposite to many MPs), and as Attorney General she's certainly not daft. Also, having previously worked in Hampshire, I know she's very visible to her constituents despite her other commitments. I think she has more to offer and is more genuine than most of the other rabble.

 

[Scotrail12]

Steve Baker is getting mentions on Twitter. Good on COVID but not much else. Too religious and I think that would influence his policies.

 

[jfollows]

Another point about "when did it all go wrong", for Boris Johnson at least, was when he appointed a Cabinet of sycophants and Brexit-supporters. Had he done the better thing and appointed a mixture of opinions, he would have strengthened his position in the longer term with the shorter-term cost of having more arguments in Cabinet, but the point of these is to divert him away from major mistakes and present opinions which aren't necessarily his but which need to be considered.
Some of the names being proposed for his replacement are some of these discarded talents. My worry is that someone will be chosen for the job because they've not been unpleasant and have been reasonably honourable in their non-actions, rather than someone who is properly competent.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Yes, I’m aware that the civil service can continue to run the day to day running of the country (like they normally do). Ministers are there to set policy. A lack of anyone to change policy for a short term is not a problem. However, if events mean a policy decision is needed, that’s when there could be difficulties.

So with Northern Ireland previously, the various department budgets could not be increased, causing a gradual worsening of some services as inflation reduced the amount that the existing budget could buy.

With inflation approaching 10% and still increasing…

And currently reports are that Boris does not want to step down as PM until just before the Conservative party conference. That’s a fair chunk of time.

Although there are also advantages in their being a lack of ministers, as in most of the controversial laws are very unlikely to be passed.

Yup, that's exactly it. Theoretically, the budgets could be increased by the PM by himself in the event of the entire cabinet resigning, but it means that he would be spending the entire day dealing with paperwork and nothing else. It seems that people are holding fire right now until they see what Johnson says, but it's very conceivable that he's going to end up with a very small government if he refuses to go.

I think she has more to offer and is more genuine

She used the term "Cultural Marxism", which immediately rules her out. She might be intelligent, but she's tainted with the same US-style politics as Johnson.

She's also got a long history of picking on various issues without any reason, such as claiming that schools don't have to recognise the preferred gender of a student.

If the Tories take yet another ERG member, they'll just end up in the same mire as they're in now.

 

[Typhoon]

Watch him if he tries to put off the handover until the party conference. He makes a rousing speech, which he is good at, gets a good reception and says, “My people need me: I shall stay.” It is unlikely, but possible.

More likely, he will have to make do with lasting into early August in order to exceed May’s tenure. What worries me is whether he will go quietly or trash the joint.

My worry too! 'Quietly' is not in his nature. I am concerned that he will seek to 'enhance' his legacy, spend waste a load of money on some vanity project, money we don't have; indulge in some EU bashing, tear up whole swathes of the NI Protocol; irritate the Scots and the Welsh - I think there is something deeply unpleasant about him and I would rather we were rid, now (although I accept others disagree). He will take every available opportunity in the House to hurl around accusations. We don't have the time to indulge him, and he doesn't deserve it.

I've heard the reports but I don't take this seriously although I wouldn't object if it came to pass.
I think it's backward-looking and implies that there's nobody else capable of being "caretaker"; whilst that may in fact be true I don't think it is really, even if it's someone fairly useless like Dominic Raab he'd be up to holding the reins, with the caveat that it'd be harder if he were also going after the job permanently.
EDIT Nick Gibb calls for a caretaker who won't also be a candidate, so for sure that includes Theresa May.

I agree - it just needs someone to hold on to the reins, someone who can restore sanity and make sure there is no drift. If it was three weeks then maybe Raab, but it will be longer. Graham Brady possibly (at least the government would be united), Damien Green, Greg Clark - someone who has played no really part in the chaos that has descended upon us.

 

[Lost property]

Roger Boulton on Sky making the point, with which I agree, that there's an emerging consensus that since this whole debacle is about Boris Johnson's personality it would be inappropriate to allow him to continue in post until October as he wants, and that a "caretaker" PM needs to be put in place promptly to replace him. Essentially very few of the resignations will be rescinded if it means that the people who resigned and are needed to run government if they have to work for Boris Johnson for three more months.


Thank you, I don't think much of the man but I think he'd be a suitable "caretaker" and better than having Boris sticking around until October.

Be fair, nobody would trust Raab with the traditional roles and duties of a caretaker...let alone running the UK in that capacity.

However, we can now look forward to some entertaining political blood letting / back stabbing / lies and promises from the aspiring candidates....they have a wealth of experience to draw on after all..

 

[96tommy]

He's appointed new members to the cabinet. He thinks he is here to stay

 

[Cloud Strife]

Greg Clark

Clark would be a good choice. He's not a 'warrior on wokeism', he will be a steady pair of hands, and he won't hog the headlines with some idiotic statements based on whatever rubbish the Americans have invented.

 

[jfollows]

He's appointed new members to the cabinet. He thinks he is here to stay

It's bonkers, he needs to go now and probably will be told to go now, then his replacement can appoint new ministers. If nothing else, I don't think he's going to be able to find 59 people willing to fill the vacant posts and work for him for three more months; I have nothing seriously against Greg Clark but he should have told Boris to get lost.

 

[RichJF]

Hiring & firing ministers who like him, not on how good they are. Then throwing toys out the pram when his constant failures are found out. He's the "Oddbins Trump."

 

[Yew]

. And, of course, Labour was unelectable in 2019.

Let’s call that out for the drivel that it is.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I have nothing seriously against Greg Clark but he should have told Boris to get lost.

Agreed, just seen this as well. I'm surprised he's done it, although he might be hoping that the next PM will keep him around...

 

[jfollows]

Let’s call that out for the drivel that it is.

No, but we can agree to disagree!
I even voted Labour in 2019!

 

[Annetts key]

With this continuing churning of ministers, it costing the country a fortune in redundancy payments for former ministers

 

[jfollows]

I just sense that Boris has a "cunning plan" which he's going to propose shortly, which involves him sticking around until October, but it's going to be torpedoed by the Conservative party. So we might get back into another impasse, and still have to go through the process of getting rid of him formally next week anyway.