When will we see National Rail passenger numbers recover?

[Philip]

Moderator note: Split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/rmt-on-the-possible-2-year-pay-freeze.213714/

This is railway forum with rail staff and railway centric contributors. The general population doesn't see things as clearly as most contributors here. The RMT and ASLEF must do the best they can to protect their members.

The public is already turning against HS2. They're unhappy about delays and costs of Crossrail. Subsidies going to rail were coming under greater scrutiny before Covid. Costs are going to have to be cut very soon. 15% of normal passenger numbers needs repeating. There will be routes doing better than that but it tallies with what I see. Subsidies to maintain railways are enormous.

That is nor a scenario for increases in wages. It's a background for big economies and that means cutting out any payments that can be avoided. Reducing the wage bill is one way, natural wastage, redeployment, early retirement, redundancy. As a union leader I'd start rattling cages now, sure, but that's because I'd be preparing a strategy to protect as many jobs as possible, and get the best deals achievable for those who leave. Pay is a secondary issue over the next 12 months or so.

With services already massively cut back the threat of industrial action to further reduce services would be totally counter productive. We're already at a point where totally shutting down passenger services for 6 months would inconvenience very few. The vast majority would barely notice. Many would advocate that as a sensible course.

As others have noted, the NUM had loyal members, but society has got used to managing without coal, and almost without the NUM. The rail unions aren't blind to the realities of the situation.

Of course it's remotely possible that we'll be seeing huge increases in passenger numbers by May. Possible, but increasingly unlikely.

Why do you think it is unlikely we will see huge increases in passenger numbers by May? Assuming the vaccine roll-out stays on track, by May we should be in a much better position. People will want to travel again and I can't see people intentionally avoiding using the train; those who have been driving instead of using the train for the last 10 months are probably sick of using the car and this is where the railway will benefit.

 

[PTR 444]

I can definitely see numbers creeping above the 40% seen last summer as international travel is effectively banned at the moment and looks likely to be for some time. With a predicted boom in staycations, I doubt the British road network will be able to handle all those holidaymakers who would have otherwise jetted off abroad.

 

[yorkie]

Short distance commuting by people who can't work from home will recover (much of it already has); discretionary leisure travel will make a reasonable recovery; long distance travel for people who work predominantly from home will recover to some extent. Also there will be more people going on domestic holidays.

But trips to events, concerts etc are not going to come back until an unknown time for obvious reasons; hopefully this Summer it will return but it remains to be seen.

Business meeting traffic will still be reduced, even when levels of the virus are low (as businesses don't want to be seen to be organising meetings even if there is no real reason not to)

But the biggest reduction will be from one of the main sources of income and that is people who live in places like Hertfordshire, the Chilterns, etc who until last Spring would commute daily into work. These people do jobs that can predominantly work from home and they will continue to do so, sadly.

The Government and rail industry have been desperately trying to convince people rail travel is unsafe for over 10 months now and that could take years to undo.

There are also many factors that will deter people travelling, such as harsh announcements, arguments over whether people are allowed to sit in aisle seats, and much more. These are hardly going to help rail's cause either!

I epect to see very uneven and unpredictable levels of demand this Spring.

 

[yorksrob]

We'll not see any improvement until the Government bites the bullet and lifts restrictions.

I think we'll need to see a year without seasonal/local restrictions before the new order for passenger usage becomes established.

 

[Philip]

By August/September last year many routes in the North West looked to be around 50-60% of normal loadings; assuming restrictions after April are easier than they were last Summer and with vaccination going well then I can certainly see this region (and probably the NE/Yorks and the Midlands) recovering to 70-80% of normal through the Summer. Not as much WFH in these regions and I get the feeling in these areas there are more people who will want 'to get back to normal', to travel and who aren't as afraid of the virus or put off by the railway stance over the last 10 months; compared to places like the Home Counties and the wealthy areas Cheshire etc.

 

[kristiang85]

I don't think commuting will go back to anywhere near what it was, and loads in peak times will be much lighter.

However, I can see weekend services getting increasingly busy, maybe even back to near normal come the summer. Certainly some services were already getting pretty full in my observation even in October before lockdowns started again. Hopefully TOCs will anticipate this rather than neglecting weekend loadings in favour of weekdays.

 

[387star]

I don't think commuting will go back to anywhere near what it was, and loads in peak times will be much lighter.

However, I can see weekend services getting increasingly busy, maybe even back to near normal come the summer. Certainly some services were already getting pretty full in my observation even in October before lockdowns started again. Hopefully TOCs will anticipate this rather than neglecting weekend loadings in favour of weekdays.

Indeed Bath station in October just before Lockdown 2 was packed !

 

[Skimpot flyer]

I think, even if all restrictions were lifted tomorrow, people on here are underestimating the effect the constant barrage of government fear-mongering has had on some people. As soon as trains start to become even remotely busy, there are some non-commuters who will view trains as ‘dangerous’, and not return to the network

 

[yorksrob]

I think, even if all restrictions were lifted tomorrow, people on here are underestimating the effect the constant barrage of government fear-mongering has had on some people. As soon as trains start to become even remotely busy, there are some non-commuters who will view trains as ‘dangerous’, and not return to the network

That's not surprising to an extent.

When the pubs opened after the first locksown they were almost empty. But they did get progressively busier as time went on (until they were all shut again). Same with the trains around here. It will take time.

 

[Bikeman78]

I can definitely see numbers creeping above the 40% seen last summer as international travel is effectively banned at the moment and looks likely to be for some time. With a predicted boom in staycations, I doubt the British road network will be able to handle all those holidaymakers who would have otherwise jetted off abroad.

As I've mentioned in other discussions, I think trains to seaside resorts will be popular. People weren't scared of the virus last summer and happily piled on to busy trains so they'll be even less bothered 12 months later.

 

[squizzler]

It won’t take long. You can bet that official forecasts are under-estimates to avoid over promising the fares to be expected.

I think there will be a recession and a fair number of households will deal with less income by reducing the number of cars they keep. This will naturally favour commercial transport. Car production is in real trouble post brexit and with Covid and running below that needed to maintain the National fleet at its current size, even if people were willing to splash out.

 

[Bald Rick]

Why do you think it is unlikely we will see huge increases in passenger numbers by May? Assuming the vaccine roll-out stays on track, by May we should be in a much better position. People will want to travel again and I can't see people intentionally avoiding using the train; those who have been driving instead of using the train for the last 10 months are probably sick of using the car and this is where the railway will benefit.

There is next to no chance of a major recovery of numbers by May.

I fully expect people to start travelling again when they are allowed to, but we might get back to, perhaps, 30-40% by May, and 60% of normal traffic in the summer at most. Obviously this will be variable by route and time of day / week - leisure routes will be much busier than long distance commuting or business travel. Unfortunately it is the latter two that bring the cash in.

There are still going to be a lot of people out there who will be anxious about crowded enclosed spaces until almost everyone has been inoculated.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

As I've mentioned in other discussions, I think trains to seaside resorts will be popular. People weren't scared of the virus last summer and happily piled on to busy trains so they'll be even less bothered 12 months later.

It pretty well baked in there will be limited opportunities for overseas holidays and places like Cornwall already reporting healthy bookings for accommodation. So the industry has an opportunity to get some revenue back but will need to be alot smarter in matching demand with services and not by pricing people off because they don't have enough capacity ready. GWR and XC have most to gain here and whilst GWR has plenty of capacity in its fleet given i.e. its unlikely to be running four trains/hr to Bristol anytime soon XC continues to be stretched. Its should be possible to rustle up a few more HSTs that are in store for this summer to give them a capacity boost as they can be deployed quickly with its drivers, on board teams and mtce staff already familiar.

 

[david1212]

Broadly passengers can be split into three groups - leisure / personal, regular commuters, business travellers to meetings and short term contracts.

For the first group a return will be when restrictions on non essential travel, essential train seat booking, leisure and heritage, hospitality, staying away from home and social gatherings in private homes are all removed. Even with all of this some will not return until the requirement to wearing a face covering is also removed.

For the second group a significant change from now will determined by how many currently working from home return to the office either full time or several days a week.

For the third group the unknown is how many meetings will revert to face - to - face rather than Zoom etc and remote working reverting to onsite.

Edit:-
Back to 2019 overall were students travelling to/from home and university more than say 1% of passengers ? Whatever the proportion the actual numbers in the future will depend on how much on site teaching is permanently replaced by remote teaching.

 

[yorksrob]

I look forward to being enticed back onto the railway.

Perhaps a decent reduction on the all line rover might be a start. Alternatively howabout that national railcard available to everyone.

 

[Bald Rick]

For ‘regular commuters’ ther3 are broadly two groups:

1) those who work in an office, and,
2) those that don’t.

Group 1 typically travel longer distances, are more likely to have worked from home accssionslly Pre Covid, and much more likely to work from home more often post Covid. They also tend to pay higher fares a they travel further.

Group 2 typically travel shorter distances, and are unable to work from home. There’s quite a few of these commuters in education, the leisure / media industry, and retail.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

For ‘regular commuters’ ther3 are broadly two groups:

1) those who work in an office, and,
2) those that don’t.

Group 1 typically travel longer distances, are more likely to have worked from home accssionslly Pre Covid, and much more likely to work from home more often post Covid. They also tend to pay higher fares a they travel further.

Group 2 typically travel shorter distances, and are unable to work from home. There’s quite a few of these commuters in education, the leisure / media industry, and retail.

The key for the railways will be at least getting a proportion of group 1 back.

 

[Tezza1978]

Broadly passengers can be split into three groups - leisure / personal, regular commuters, business travellers to meetings and short term contracts.

For the first group a return will be when restrictions on non essential travel, essential train seat booking, leisure and heritage, hospitality, staying away from home and social gatherings in private homes are all removed. Even with all of this some will not return until the requirement to wearing a face covering is also removed.

For the second group a significant change from now will determined by how many currently working from home return to the office either full time or several days a week.

For the third group the unknown is how many meetings will revert to face - to - face rather than Zoom etc and remote working reverting to onsite.

Edit:-
Back to 2019 overall were students travelling to/from home and university more than say 1% of passengers ? Whatever the proportion the actual numbers in the future will depend on how much on site teaching is permanently replaced by remote teaching.

As someone in the 3rd group - who regularly travels across the country by rail to meet clients and agency suppliers , particularly to London and the South East and major cities - I think this type of travel will recover very well. During the summer once hospitality was open and we could meet in Starbucks etc as well as offices, 90% were still really keen to meet me face to face and we got far more out of those meetings. Most of my contacts are sick to death of Teams and Zoom - yes they have let us keep things going well of course - I think in projects, travel can be reduced a little mid project to Teams/Zoom meetings instead -but there is no substitute for face to face meetings at key project milestomes to build relationships. Engagement with people in general face to face - particularly in the public sector, has been proven to be far more effective in terms of success time and time again by the business I work for.

For group 1 - leisure will also recover very well - people are sick to death of being at home and missing out on football, seeing friends, days out, cultural activities etc. Masks are an annoyance but given people have to wear them in most places currently people will put up with them for the next 6 months or so - much as I hate them and that they have limited effectiveness I can see masks being kept on public transport until next Spring. They are a price people will pay to get 90% back to old normal (which I think is achievable, the main thing that will be hard to get back in 2021 is overseas travel)

Group 2 will see the biggest change in numbers on trains - but I still think most will want to or be required to head to the office at least 1 to 3 times a week as the novelty of home working has worn off for many and doesn't suit people with small children or those who live in shared flats. For companies with multiple sites regular meetings at co-working spaces and regional offices will become more of a thing, which also will support rail use

 

[Ianno87]

The key for the railways will be at least getting a proportion of group 1 back.

And what proportion of Group 1 will return "naturally" without having to be enticed with fares offers etc.

 

[Philip]

I look forward to being enticed back onto the railway.

Perhaps a decent reduction on the all line rover might be a start. Alternatively howabout that national railcard available to everyone.

I'm not sure the railway can afford to start lowering fares or offering more discount products like a national railcard, given the deficit it has racked up. A little cynical but I don't think the railway needs to go down the enticing route; once people can use it and travel again they will do, even if the fares go up. All this 'the railway needs to win passengers over' etc is just a bit of a red herring; as stated above it all depends on both the lifting of travel restrictions and how many people go back to the office and move away from using zoom. If these all push back towards travelling/commuter then people will return to the trains regardless of the fares/offers. It is not like driving or parking will become cheaper either!

 

[Bald Rick]

All this 'the railway needs to win passengers over' etc is just a bit of a red herring

It really isn’t. Commuters tend to use rail because the alternatives are pretty frightful, either in cost or time terms (or both). That

Leisure travellers tend to use rail because it is better value than the car or (occasionally) plane. Many are creatures of habit and have learned not to use the train. They will need enticing back.

 

[Philip]

It really isn’t. Commuters tend to use rail because the alternatives are pretty frightful, either in cost or time terms (or both). That

Leisure travellers tend to use rail because it is better value than the car or (occasionally) plane. Many are creatures of habit and have learned not to use the train. They will need enticing back.

Then perhaps the government could be a bit more crafty about it and look at, for example, an advertising campaign about climate change, urging people to 'ditch their car and go greener by using our increasingly electrified railway', or in a more cynical attempt by spiking up petrol prices to try and put people off driving.

 

[yorksrob]

Then perhaps the government could be a bit more crafty about it and look at, for example, an advertising campaign about climate change, urging people to 'ditch their car and go greener by using our increasingly electrified railway', or in a more cynical attempt by spiking up petrol prices to try and put people off driving.

All of that will be good and worth pursuing, but fundamentally money talks, and good value fares will be the main way to get bums back on seat.

 

[Ianno87]

All of that will be good and worth pursuing, but fundamentally money talks, and good value fares will be the main way to get bums back on seat.

Yes and no. There will some markets that will need fares offers to be enticed back, whereas other markets are less elastic in that respect.

It'll be tricky to strike a balance between stimulating demand via fares (on a temporary or permanent basis) versus risking simply ending up losing revenue overall by charging people who would've travelled anyway less.

 

[yorksrob]

Yes and no. There will some markets that will need fares offers to be enticed back, whereas other markets are less elastic in that respect.

It'll be tricky to strike a balance between stimulating demand via fares (on a temporary or permanent basis) versus risking simply ending up losing revenue overall by charging people who would've travelled anyway less.

I think some of it will just be making it easier to travel.

There are some trips that I have considered making in the past, that I could have done at a decent value, if I'd lined up lots of advanced fares, but in the end I just couldn't be bothered with the rigmarole. If a fairly dedicated rail traveller like me is put off, I can only imagine that "normals" are as well.

 

[Harold Hill]

Under the Great Reset the national rail passenger numbers will never recover to pre-Covid levels. Yesterday has gone. Millions will be risk-averse for many years, millions more won't have a job to go and those that are still working will likely have less money. 'You will have nothing and you will be happy'

 

[yorksrob]

Under the Great Reset the national rail passenger numbers will never recover to pre-Covid levels. Yesterday has gone. Millions will be risk-averse for many years, millions more won't have a job to go and those that are still working will likely have less money. 'You will have nothing and you will be happy'

I don't think anyones planning for a recovery to pre-covid levels - not for a very long time anyway.

75% is the target figure I've seen mentioned by the industry.

 

[Killingworth]

Under the Great Reset the national rail passenger numbers will never recover to pre-Covid levels. Yesterday has gone. Millions will be risk-averse for many years, millions more won't have a job to go and those that are still working will likely have less money. 'You will have nothing and you will be happy'

Maybe a little pessimistic but we're in the middle of a war. Have we passed Dunkirk, the Battle of Britain or D day? We don't know.

They recovered after the Black Death. We should do a lot better than that but mutations of the virus can still catch us There are large numbers who will be reluctant to travel by public transport, some never again.

I agree with the likely return of leisure users, but it will still take a couple of years to know how that will settle down In some areas we'll see increases on 2019/20 but it may take 5-10 years to get near where we were. Air travel looks likely to drop a lot with knock ons for airport servicing rail traffic.

Commuting was already seeing a swing away from 5 day regular weekly travel. Many WFH arrangeents will continue, some full time and many more for limited days during the week. Some love it, some hate it but new patterns avoiding rail travel have had a year to settle down. We've had various off/on restrictions.

To get folks back commuting in large numbers will take 6 months of eased restrictions. No employer will want to bring all their staff back into offices until the war is seen to be over, temporary all clears aren't enough.

 

[yorksrob]

Maybe a little pessimistic but we're in the middle of a war. Have we passed Dunkirk, the Battle of Britain or D day? We don't know.

They recovered after the Black Death. We should do a lot better than that but mutations of the virus can still catch us There are large numbers who will be reluctant to travel by public transport, some never again.

I agree with the likely return of leisure users, but it will still take a couple of years to know how that will settle down In some areas we'll see increases on 2019/20 but it may take 5-10 years to get near where we were. Air travel looks likely to drop a lot with knock ons for airport servicing rail traffic.

Commuting was already seeing a swing away from 5 day regular weekly travel. Many WFH arrangeents will continue, some full time and many more for limited days during the week. Some love it, some hate it but new patterns avoiding rail travel have had a year to settle down. We've had various off/on restrictions.

To get folks back commuting in large numbers will take 6 months of eased restrictions. No employer will want to bring all their staff back into offices until the war is sern to be over, temporary all clears aren't enough.

Indeed. There's no point expecting any meaningful picture of what's going to pan out, all the while were doing the hokey-kokey of lockdowns and tiers etc.

Actually, I think that one of the key things for wider economic/societal as well as rail recovery, will be to knock on the head any thought of internal restrictions next winter.

 

[LowLevel]

I have no doubt that the regional cities I work to will be back to full and standing trains at leisure times pretty quickly. They were in August - I logged well over 200 people on a 4 car train on various occasions.

Commuters may take a bit longer but I can see things being done to attract them back - if only because the councils won't want the lack of rates if their cities die off entirely Monday to Friday 9-5.

We were back to being "pretty busy" during the infamous Eat Out to Help Out period.

We shall see, though right from the start our signals from high up have been that they expect the Regional Railway to recover quickest and strongest (which doesn't help the bottom line that much!).