• Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

Status
Not open for further replies.

ChiefPlanner

Established Member
Joined
6 Sep 2011
Messages
8,096
Location
Herts
Surely it provides more capacity on the part of the WCML that is bypassed by Phase 1? I was responding to the assertion that HS2 wouldn't provide more capacity because most people aren't going to Birmingham.

Considerable more capacity obviously - not least for freight - the intermodal kind in particular. (which is constrained at the moment in the commuter peaks , and often enough at other times) - try finding a path for an additional between say 0600 and 2100 south of Rugby.

People forget about freight.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

Hadders

Veteran Member
Associate Staff
Senior Fares Advisor
Joined
27 Apr 2011
Messages
16,570
Will the capacity be needed in 50 years? Really? I'd say technology will make it less likely, not more.

My view on HS2 is that it is willy-waving by politicians. Nothing more, nothing less. HS2 won't provide capacity on the WCML because most WCML passengers aren't going to or anywhere near Birmingham. It's going to be a white elephant and the only way they'll make it look good is by trashing the "classic" trains like they did in Kent.

Opinion polls routinely show 50% of people against it. And if public opinion is good enough for Brecit!

We've been told that technology would kill off travel for the last 50 years but it hasn't happened yet and is unlikely to do so.
 

The Planner

Veteran Member
Joined
15 Apr 2008
Messages
17,893
Will the capacity be needed in 50 years? Really? I'd say technology will make it less likely, not more.

My view on HS2 is that it is willy-waving by politicians. Nothing more, nothing less. HS2 won't provide capacity on the WCML because most WCML passengers aren't going to or anywhere near Birmingham. It's going to be a white elephant and the only way they'll make it look good is by trashing the "classic" trains like they did in Kent.

Opinion polls routinely show 50% of people against it. And if public opinion is good enough for Brecit!
I asked a while back for the source of these opinion polls, you havent provided them yet or any detail behind them. Would be interested in seeing them if they exist. I doubt somehow the same amount of people responded as did in the referendum...
As for capacity in 50 years, isnt Beeching the normal reason given for why we are struggling in some areas as growth wasnt expected back then?
 

Ianno87

Veteran Member
Joined
3 May 2015
Messages
15,214
My view on HS2 is that it is willy-waving by politicians. Nothing more, nothing less. HS2 won't provide capacity on the WCML because most WCML passengers aren't going to or anywhere near Birmingham. It's going to be a white elephant and the only way they'll make it look good is by trashing the "classic" trains like they did in Kent.

The "trashing" of classic trains in Kent was replacing semi-fast trains to Charing Cross, Cannon Street etc. with fast trains into St. Pancras instead. The controversial issue was the change of terminal to the opposite side of London from The City termini if you wanted the fastest services from outer Kent, and deceleration of classic services to benefit the places in between (Tonbridge, etc.) not directly served.

That does not apply to HS2; trains into Euston will be replaced by trains into.... Euston (with added option of changing at Old Oak Common off HS2) for the people of Stafford, Crewe, etc.. Just that trains from Coventry, etc. will (probably) make one or two more stops than today, but be much less full with people joining at Birmingham, and greater scope for fast 'local' journeys to Watford and Milton Keynes.

Notice, of course, that HS1 domestic services are now very popular, and the grumbling that did take place has long since faded away...
 

al78

Established Member
Joined
7 Jan 2013
Messages
2,550
Otherwise known as RUK Syndrome ;) o_O

Otherwise known as UK general public. People do this all the time, make assertions based on hearing some snippet somewhere that aligns or contradicts their world view, then think they are an expert.
 

sprunt

Established Member
Joined
22 Jul 2017
Messages
1,389
Surely those people can use Birmingham Interchange? As far as I understand, there will be a direct connection between there, the Airport and Birmingham International.

What, and deny themself the later joy of moaning about how they had to walk through a crime-ridden city centre? :rolleyes:

Well, quite - this is why I think there is a much poorer case for phase 2.

If there is no case for the line to go beyond Birmingham though, does it really make sense to spend the extra money* to build it to HS standard? The significant journey time saving only really comes on the longer distance journeys - the real benefit would be seen on much faster journeys to Glasgow and Edinburgh. I absolutely buy the case for freeing up WCML capacity, but if it's only by building a new line to Birmingham I don't think the time saved on that journey would be significant.

*I'm assuming there's significant extra cost in building to HS standard - if not, ignore this.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
105,224
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
If there is no case for the line to go beyond Birmingham though, does it really make sense to spend the extra money* to build it to HS standard? The significant journey time saving only really comes on the longer distance journeys - the real benefit would be seen on much faster journeys to Glasgow and Edinburgh. I absolutely buy the case for freeing up WCML capacity, but if it's only by building a new line to Birmingham I don't think the time saved on that journey would be significant.

I do agree with the proposed speed reduction from 400 to 300km/h, which does save money on trains and track (particularly the former which even for classic compatible are much more "off the shelf" - a 2019 Eurostar TMST would be perfect (all that is is a slightly squashed TGV Reseau), and I'm sure Hitachi could eke a bit more speed out of the 225km/h Class 800 design with some relatively small modifications).

I'm not sure there is a massive difference in cost between building a line for 300km/h and 200-225km/h. Building it any slower would be silly as there would be no need to move anything off the regular WCML.
 

DynamicSpirit

Established Member
Joined
12 Apr 2012
Messages
8,994
Location
SE London
The "trashing" of classic trains in Kent was replacing semi-fast trains to Charing Cross, Cannon Street etc. with fast trains into St. Pancras instead. The controversial issue was the change of terminal to the opposite side of London from The City termini if you wanted the fastest services from outer Kent, and deceleration of classic services to benefit the places in between (Tonbridge, etc.) not directly served.

I don't think that was the only complaint. A big issue was that significantly higher fares are charged for travelling via HS1. That meant that commuters from Ashford or stations further East suddenly had a choice between paying a lot more for their commutes or having their journeys slowed down - arguably to the point at which commuting would not be feasible. Personally I think the circumstances around HS2 are a bit different so I'm hopeful the same fare increase won't happen there. But I can see why that experience of higher fares with HS1 might cause some other people to oppose HS2.

I do agree with you that HS1 is now very well used - and this does seem to show that providing faster journeys does bring more passengers.
 
Last edited:

The Ham

Established Member
Joined
6 Jul 2012
Messages
11,118
Personally we should be building GCR 21k, which takes the principles of the original GCR and broadly follows is route over part of the southern part.

To ensure that people switched to it rather than staying on the existing services, I would design it to be able to run much faster than the WCML.

It would be designed to accommodate the type of trains used in Europe, so that double decker trains could be used.

I'd place a station on the outskirts of London which connected with the GWML so that places with connections to there (e.g. via Reading or better still by building the Southern Approach to Heathrow with services from Guildford and Basingstoke) would be able to connect to the new services so that fewer people need to contact via London. This would improve journey times and frequency for those going between the Midlands/the north and Southampton, Portsmouth, Basingstoke, Woking, Guildford, etc. This would free up significant capacity on XC services.

Of course the original GCR didn't serve Birmingham which this new line would need to do. Likewise it would need to connect to Manchester, Leeds, etc. Including indirect links to Liverpool, Scotland and the like.

The above would be better than the cheaper HSUK, as it would have a new line or of London rather than relying on the MML.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
105,224
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
I don't think that was the only complaint. A big issue was that significantly higher fares are charged for travelling via HS1. That meant that commuters from Ashford or stations further East suddenly had a choice between paying a lot more for their commutes or having their journeys slowed down - arguably to the point at which commuting would not be feasible. Personally I think the circumstances around HS2 are a bit different so I'm hopeful the same fare increase won't happen there. But I can see why that experience of higher fares with HS1 might cause some other people oppose HS2.

Did the actual fares increase that much? I thought the issue was more that with most jobs being in the City and so nearer the classic Southern Railway termini people were having to pay the extra for Travelcards causing an effective increase for the higher validity required, particularly given that the extra Tube/bus journey meant it wasn't that much faster anyway.

This doesn't overly affect HS2 which will be changing from Euston to, er, Euston.
 

Tetchytyke

Veteran Member
Joined
12 Sep 2013
Messages
15,061
Location
Isle of Man
I asked a while back for the source of these opinion polls, you havent provided them yet or any detail behind them.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2014/05/01/public-still-oppose-hs2

The controversial issue was the change of terminal to the opposite side of London from The City termini if you wanted the fastest services from outer Kent, and deceleration of classic services

The classic services were slowed down significantly in order to force people on to HS1.

HS1 was justified for the international passenger traffic though.

Considerable more capacity obviously - not least for freight - the intermodal kind in particular.

I'm interested how the promises of "more local trains" can live alongside the promise of "more freight". You only get more paths if you move the LNR trains on to the fasts, which you only do if you stop running the Virgin services, so there's no additional services. But if you don't do that there's no more room for freight.

Still, trebles all round for the shareholders at (Tory donors) Robert McAlpine and Skanska. The poor sods around Euston who lost their small businesses and livelihoods last January and still haven't been compensated for it, who cares.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
105,224
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
Personally we should be building GCR 21k, which takes the principles of the original GCR and broadly follows is route over part of the southern part.

To ensure that people switched to it rather than staying on the existing services, I would design it to be able to run much faster than the WCML.

It would be designed to accommodate the type of trains used in Europe, so that double decker trains could be used.

I'd place a station on the outskirts of London which connected with the GWML so that places with connections to there (e.g. via Reading or better still by building the Southern Approach to Heathrow with services from Guildford and Basingstoke) would be able to connect to the new services so that fewer people need to contact via London. This would improve journey times and frequency for those going between the Midlands/the north and Southampton, Portsmouth, Basingstoke, Woking, Guildford, etc. This would free up significant capacity on XC services.

By sending it up the Chiltern route part of the way, that is very close to what they actually are doing! Old Oak Common is the station you are talking about.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
105,224
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
I'm interested how the promises of "more local trains" can live alongside the promise of "more freight". You only get more paths if you move the LNR trains on to the fasts, which you only do if you stop running the Virgin services, so there's no additional services. But if you don't do that there's no more room for freight.

There are 9 InterCity trains per hour out of Euston (3 Manchester, 3 Brum one of which carries on to Scotland, 1 Liverpool, 1 Chester/Holyhead, 1 fast Scotland). Your point seems centred around an idea that it's "all or nothing" - of course it isn't. Lop say 2 of those out and put fast Northamptons in their place (WFJ-MKC-NMP only), rejig slow line services accordingly, and hey presto, you've just created an hourly freight path.

(I know it isn't *quite* that simple, but it is exactly in principle how such paths will be created)
 

Tetchytyke

Veteran Member
Joined
12 Sep 2013
Messages
15,061
Location
Isle of Man
Did the actual fares increase that much?

Yes.

On top of the initial HS1 surcharge, don't forget that SouthEastern were allowed to put their fares up at RPI+3% across their entire network (rather than RPI+1%) to fund HS1. Even on tickets that went nowhere near it.
 

Tetchytyke

Veteran Member
Joined
12 Sep 2013
Messages
15,061
Location
Isle of Man
There are 9 InterCity trains per hour out of Euston. Your point seems centred around an idea that it's "all or nothing" - of course it isn't. Lop say 2 of those out and put fast Northamptons in their place

You can't run more trains by running fewer trains.

There are currently 3tph LNR and 3tph Virgin to Birmingham. "Lop out" a couple of Virgin trains and the local stations that HS2 won't go near (Coventry, Rugby etc) get a worse service.

It makes sense to do it that way, of course, and there's your hourly freight path. But there's no improvement for local stations. And £100bn is a lot of money for one freight path!
 

Aictos

Established Member
Joined
28 Apr 2009
Messages
10,403
And also that they ignore indirect benefits, such as once you remove ICWC trains from the WCML through Stockport you might actually be able to give the Hazel Grove line a Merseyrail style level of service, for instance.

Indeed which as a commuter from Bletchley won't directly benefit you, it will however benefit these who use the Hazel Grove line day in and day out and that's just one example of indirect benefits.
 

swaldman

Member
Joined
19 Jan 2013
Messages
448
Yes.

On top of the initial HS1 surcharge, don't forget that SouthEastern were allowed to put their fares up at RPI+3% across their entire network (rather than RPI+1%) to fund HS1. Even on tickets that went nowhere near it.

Aye. I was a commuter on SouthEastern "metro" services at the time. Felt extremely unfair.

Allow bigger increases for HS1 to pay for HS1? OK. (sort of)
Or, allow bigger increases by all operators to pay for HS1? OK (again, sort of. I don't want to drag things off-topic)
But allowing bigger increases on all SouthEastern services? That's just punishing people for happening to live the wrong side of an arbitrary line between SouthEastern and Southern.
 

DynamicSpirit

Established Member
Joined
12 Apr 2012
Messages
8,994
Location
SE London
(Talking about Birmingham connections)

Indeed, it's feeble what excuses people bring just because they don't like the idea of something that benefits others.

I'd be a little cautious there. Certainly the walk between stations at Birmingham is not even remotely a justification for being opposed to HS2. But it is nonetheless an issue that needs work.

To my mind, the problem with New Street - Moor Street is not just the length of the walk - it's the fact that it's a somewhat unpleasant and quite confusing walk. As far as I can tell - means going along rather badly signposted main roads, with several opportunities en route to take a wrong turning. To add to that, New Street has multiple exits and it's not obvious if you've just arrived there which exit is the correct one for Moor Street. I don't live in Birmingham and don't make the connection very often. But ... personally I've got lost a couple of times walking between those two stations. And even on a few times when I did actually take the correct route, there were points along the route where it wasn't obvious that I was on the right route and I started to wonder if I was going the wrong way. To my mind, that amounts to a serious problem for making connections in Birmingham.

Of course, sorting that out is not really a problem for HS2, but I'd argue it does need to be sorted - especially when HS2 brings another main station to Birmingham, meaning that many more people will be travelling between stations.
 
Last edited:

Esker-pades

Established Member
Joined
23 Jul 2015
Messages
3,781
Location
Beds, Bucks, or somewhere else
1: Why didn't you give the more up-to-date surveys first?
2: I can't read the telegraph article far enough, but given the similarity in date with the Express article I would estimate that they are both reporting the same survey.
3: The final poll is from 2017, whch is over a year out.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
105,224
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
There are currently 3tph LNR and 3tph Virgin to Birmingham. "Lop out" a couple of Virgin trains and the local stations that HS2 won't go near (Coventry, Rugby etc) get a worse service.

Coventry is likely to be a big loser - but is most likely about the only big loser in the first phase at least (Stockport will be the biggest loser in the second phase if it happens, though many of its IC users arrive by car and will instead drive to the Manchester Airport parkway station). Presently very few VTs stop at Rugby, and those services which do stop are bitty and not clockface. I would expect nearly all or all trains to serve Watford Junction, MKC and Rugby in the new world, which will be a significant frequency and destination range upgrade for all three of them even if the actual number of InterCity trains on the fast lines is roughly halved (i.e. to 4-5tph).

But Coventry doesn't justify on its own 6tph to London, it has them because it's convenient. It probably alone justifies about 1tph express (Rugby-MKC-WFJ-Euston) and 2tph semifast (basically the present LNR service via Northampton). Suggesting that this is a reason not to build HS2 is a bit like suggesting that if there was to be some grand plan to reroute the Merseyrail Northern Line that Aughton Park on its own would justify 4tph to Liverpool and Ormskirk (or talking more practically that Norton Bridge would justify a service *at all* when the decision was made to reroute the slow lines a few miles away from the station) - of course it doesn't.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
105,224
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
Indeed which as a commuter from Bletchley won't directly benefit you, it will however benefit these who use the Hazel Grove line day in and day out and that's just one example of indirect benefits.

I suspect Bletchley will gain more immediately anyway, with fewer VTs it's more likely we will get peak fast-line services to/from Euston, of which there are presently very few (there is 1tph off peak which is probably the most that is justified, though 2 would be nice).
 

Hadrian

Member
Joined
28 Jan 2019
Messages
45
Location
Bardon Mill
HS2 is a classic example of well meaning engineers seeking to replace transport planners and economists in specifying need for changes to transport infrastructure. HS2 depends on it being more cost effective to provide new railway routes than enhance existing routes as a way of overcoming capacity problems. The new routes then permit further benefits in reducing journey times which would best be applied to the longer journeys which, when made shorter, change the competitive position compared to air.

HS2 is unlikely to have a significant impact on rail market share between London and Birmingham, Manchester or Leeds etc but could do so for locations more distant from London (Glasgow, Edinburgh, Newcastle etc). The published timetabling assumptions for HS2 actually lengthen journey times for journeys such as Carlisle to London (because fast Glasgow to London trains are not, as I understand it, planned to stop at Carlisle).

It is often not understood that a significant proportion of passengers boarding a London bound train at Glasgow will step off before or at Preston. I guess the airlines have a respectable proportion of the Glasgow to London market.

If HS2 were instead to be a single route reaching rather further north (with access to/from existing routes along the way) the considerable outlay could generate rather more economic and environmental benefits than the current configuration envisaged. The capacity of HS2, in whatever configuration, should be used for more longer distance trains, including southern destinations other than London, and fewer trains serving shorter journeys wherer smaller journey time reductions are in prospect.
 

swaldman

Member
Joined
19 Jan 2013
Messages
448

I have few strong opinions on the subject, and haven't looked at the first two links, but re the third:

1. The Taxpayer's Alliance is a right-wing, small-government lobby group which will naturally be opposed to projects involving large government spending. A poll by them is obviously going to say that HS2 is bad, and is hardly a trustworthy indicator of public opinion.

2. The headline is that 84% didn't believe it will benefit them personally. Which is an interesting choice of metric.
 

underbank

Established Member
Joined
26 Jan 2013
Messages
1,486
Location
North West England
HS2 is unlikely to have a significant impact on rail market share between London and Birmingham, Manchester or Leeds etc but could do so for locations more distant from London (Glasgow, Edinburgh, Newcastle etc). The published timetabling assumptions for HS2 actually lengthen journey times for journeys such as Carlisle to London (because fast Glasgow to London trains are not, as I understand it, planned to stop at Carlisle).

Same here for Lancaster which isn't on the new "map" either. Our local MP has started a campaign to ensure Lancaster remains a stop on the WCML for trains to London. Otherwise, we're in the same position of longer duration journeys, so HS2 would make things worse for us.
 

swaldman

Member
Joined
19 Jan 2013
Messages
448
Seems to me that any projects of this sort will make things worse for some people. That's inevitable, whether it's from timetabling changes, or people who live near the route but not the stations, or people who pay taxes towards it but don't use it or otherwise benefit, or whatever.

It's expected, it's normal, and it's not a reason to never do anything.

(it's not a reason to always do stuff either. The point is that both cost and benefit must be considered in the aggregate as well as the individual.)
 

tbtc

Veteran Member
Joined
16 Dec 2008
Messages
17,889
Location
Reston City Centre
I agree- the branding, marketing and PR has been terrible. The name "HS2" is bad enough but having a major part of the project called "Phase 2b" is insane. It makes it sound like an unimportant add-on, gives no indication of where the construction will be or what the benefits will be. Surely some imagination could have been used - the Great Yorkshire Line, or something like that.

Maybe that's a valid point about the Great British Public and their understanding of HS2.

But on this Forum, we are all railway enthusiasts, we can make our own mind up about the benefits of a scheme regardless of Government marketing - I manage to form an opinion about various railway schemes around the UK regardless of how they are "branded" - I'm not sure that railway enthusiasts are so ignorant that our view of a project depends on how the Government try to sell it to us?

East West Rail is planned to be a conventional line which will have intermediate stations giving local people along the route access to it, something HS2 won't do directly even if it does improve the service on lines that are relatively close. In addition, EWR does something new by giving access across that region and therefore can be seen to people as something better since it can be seen as helping local people and not just people in big cities like London and Birmingham

It's still a scheme in a wealthy part of the country that hasn't attracted any criticism as a result of that - and I say this as someone who supports the ideas of EWR - I think it's a good idea (though marginally sceptical of the kind of "Bristol to Cambridge" markets that people suggest will be a significant part of trade) - people seem fine with richer counties benefitting from an infrastructure project like this - but when HS2 comes along the reaction becomes "I'm against this because it won't do anything for poorer places like Merthyr Tydfil/ Hartlepool/ Methil".

Why the different reactions?

I think another thing that is overlooked is that all of this is banking on increasing passenger numbers, something which there is no guarantee of, especially since we've started to see them level off already in places

Will the capacity be needed in 50 years? Really? I'd say technology will make it less likely, not more

How come the technologies that mean HS2 isn't needed (as we'll all be working from home etc) and the reducing passenger numbers doesn't apply to other public transport projects?

Despite widespread/mainstream use of the internet for over twenty years, passenger numbers continued to rise and rise. Maybe they'll go back down one day, but it's weird how people only think this will affect HS2 passenger numbers (maybe the technological revolution won't affect all of the other lines that people suggest re-opening... electronic business practices and further automation will decimate HS2's business case but not the Leamside/ Woodhead/ BML2/ Waverley etc etc).

Some would argue the wasted capacity is empty trains. Do we really need 3tph to Birmingham and Manchester whilst other destinations receive less, like Liverpool or Glasgow?

I'm sure if those arch capitalists Branson/ Souter could make more money from doubling the Liverpool services (by reducing the Manchester services) then they would be lobbying for it.

The fact that Virgin have previously suggested a fourth (hourly) Manchester service suggests that Manchester is more attractive to them (however much some people may want a "parity").

I would argue that perhaps Curzon Street should have been built as a through station rather than as a terminus station allowing an extension to the west / southwest this could free up capacity between Birmingham and Leeds / York

My take on this is that HS2 are very keen to avoid "mission creep", i.e. they want to keep their costs relatively under control and not get lumbered with paying for all of the junctions/ additional infrastructure that may fit alongside their project (e.g. the cost of extending the NET to Toton, the cost of electrifying parallel routes).

Curzon Street looks like it's being built with scope to extend it onto "conventional" lines, but they don't want to pick up the tab for those costs.

Just an example of modern project management.

In the PRM era a 10 minute walk is not a connection

Given a four hundred metre length train, I think it'll be unavoidable to have some ten minute connections.

True, but people, especially outside the cities, have very real worries about the poor state of their local public transport and are right to question why there's money for big projects like HS2 but no money to replace crap Pacers or an evening bus service

We are replacing Pacers though.
 

Tetchytyke

Veteran Member
Joined
12 Sep 2013
Messages
15,061
Location
Isle of Man
I'd change engineers for civil servants.

And when you start looking at the phase 2 proposals, such as a tunnel under Crewe station, it increasingly looks like someone at the DfT was given a packet of crayons to play with.

HS2 is a classic example of well meaning engineers seeking to replace transport planners and economists in specifying need for changes to transport infrastructure.

HS2 is unlikely to have a significant impact on rail market share between London and Birmingham, Manchester or Leeds etc but could do so for locations more distant from London (Glasgow, Edinburgh, Newcastle etc)

I don't think it'll make any difference up here either. We can get to Kings Cross in as little as 2h40 as it is. HS2 might be faster but we'd have to go further, with a massive detour to Birmingham, so the two cancel out. You might get it down to 2h30. Worth £100bn? Hardly.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top