It is quite clear to me that the Government/Dft have long had their own agenda regards IEP despite the almost universals reservations from both within and outside the rail industry so talk of alternatives at this late stage is pointless.IEP like HS2 has become a "politically " led project and not an engineering led project so its long been a done deal.
I agree.
You do not run a procurement for 3+ years, have a preferred supplier for 2 years and invest lots of cash and reputation (on both sides) only to cancel the project as "unsuitable".
The only conceivable grounds for cancellation would be "not value for money", in which case the whole procurement would have to start again.
At the very least, Hitachi will get a large contract for new trains for GW (though the electric/bi-mode mix might not be finalised).
Then when you have the programme rolling and infrastructure on the ground the repeat orders become cheaper.
Maybe the later EC trains are up for grabs if procurement is down to the TOC rather than DfT.
The highest risk to IEP is probably finding the (Agility Trains) money to fund it in the current financial climate, rather than the technicalities.
From the moment Philip Hammond stood up a year ago and confirmed the project would go ahead, the technical argument against IEP was lost.
The best outcome would be for the July HLOS to commit Swansea electrification and thus force more electric/fewer bi-mode units out of the Hitachi order.
Did you notice Hitachi's Newton Aycliffe factory figured in PM's Questions before the Budget speech last week (as an example of inward investment)?
It's going to happen, at least on GW.