UK Storms

[ModernRailways]

It seems odd that they've got revised timetables given that nobody knows what might happen and more importantly where it might happen.

It's better to be prepared. TOCs are putting out warnings so that those who don't need to travel don't and to also put some people off travelling/going into work. Obviously if there is next to no damage and a full normal service can run then I am sure TOCs will run a normal service.

I imagine some stock may be shifted around, with the more commuter friendly (i.e more standing room) stock being closest to London to allow for a better service into London on the Metro style routes. The long distance routes (e.g Dover to London) will no doubt be second on the TOCs mind after those Metro style routes with possible shuttle services if required.

I also imagine that Network Rail will be prepared to have to fix some wires on the ECML (or possibly WCML). In fact, does anyone have any idea if any Network Rail staff have been called in, just as backup if it does go t*ts up?

If the winds are as strong as expected I also expect a lot of leaves on the line which in itself will cause more delays. RHTT trains can only clear it so much and they themselves have to make it along the route to clear it.

 

[infobleep]

Chiltern railways are running a revised timetable on Monday according to the 1am news on LBC.

]
For East Coast it makes good sense to do this, and for the commuter services that might struggle to cope with fewer/slower trains, again I'd say that many people would be advised to take the day off or just not travel if they can. Nobody really wants the hassle of getting home during disruption even if they're lucky in the morning.

I quite like the idea of trying to travel to work during the storm and seeing how far I get. I mean train drivers have to try and drive the trains, paths still being available of course, so why not me?

May be I'm being too naive. It's been quite a while since we last had a bad storm such as this. I can actually work from home if I need to but I like the idea of trying to get into work whilst nature tries to stop me.

 

[High Dyke]

The Midlands, Lincs and East Anglia – where we are looking at peak gusts of 70-80mph inland, perhaps 80-90mph along southern coasts – especially across the far southwest. Quite a noticeable squeeze in the isobars towards The Wash and Lincs as the low exits, so some very strong northwest wind gusts here early afternoon.

Ooh deep joy! Could be an interesting morning working a set of manual crossing gates.

 

[simple simon]

after a wait of months a close relative is going to hospital on Monday for a day-care procedure (a hernia repair). I am concerned that the appointment wil be cancelled at the last minute.

then again, no-one knows exactly what will happen, indeed perhaps not even the weather people - after all they were promising us this storm even before the weather pattern had began (which seems somewhat premature - unless the storm is 'man made' - by which I mean, 'not natural').

-------------------

I recall the 1987 storm. It was followed by a stock market downturn.

What a wild day that was... I was living with my parents at the time, I slept through the storm itself but was woken early in the morning by my father who wanted a torch because the power was out and he wanted to shave.

One of my brothers went to the car to get a torch and when he turned on the radio he heard a message about the BBC broadcasting using emergency battery power as a storm had knocked out the mains.

I went with my father to work. in the car through east London and he said that the "street litter" reminded him of what he used to see in London during the Blitz.

Near deserted streets, tree branches, roof tiles, damaged brickwork everywhere...

Then there were the storms of January 1990; these were not as severe but still did damage. Near where I worked a modern corrugated metal wall building had its outer skin ripped off exposing the fibreglass insulation and the metal framework to which the inner and outer skins had been bolted. The company which used that building had to use its emergency exit as the main door, as the outer skin that had been ripped off was flapping in the wind and had it hit a person it would have ripped through them as easily as a warm knife in soft butter.

btw, this storm that we are expecting is nothing compared to what the USA is preparing for. The outgoing head of Homeland Security (Jane Napolotino) included in her farewell message a "good luck" message to whoever succeeds her, as they are expecting a severe event that will be blamed on climate change. Possibly November 2013, with unpredented flooding on the eastern seaboard. Washington DC may have to be evacuated with the White House inundated by flood waters. Probably not very deep, just a foot or so.

Simon

 

[tsr]

I should add that the exact track and severity of bad weather remains uncertain even just at present. Whilst planning for "worst-case scenarios" is commendable and I think necessary, there is always the possibility of a "flop" from the low pressure system. But then again the Met Office clearly show that the odds are still that severe weather will hit.

By the way, to the previous poster who queried what I meant by "natural cycles" influencing tides, I do of course mean neap tidal cycles.

 

[TDK]

The latest leaf fall predictions and adhesion predictions have severe in the southern most counties including Cornwall, Devon, Hampshire, Sussex and Kent. They have poor predictions from this line as far North as Birmingham and then moderate for the rest of the country updated at 07.00 this morning.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I should add that the exact track and severity of bad weather remains uncertain even just at present. Whilst planning for "worst-case scenarios" is commendable and I think necessary, there is always the possibility of a "flop" from the low pressure system. But then again the Met Office clearly show that the odds are still that severe weather will hit.

It's very difficult for the Met Office.
While their warning rhetoric is the same today, my reading of the maps behind them suggests it won't be as bad as previously thought.
Added to which, it will not last long (quickly swinging into the North Sea).
Another pointer is that the warning is Amber, not Red.
These days nobody will take any risks of "not forecasting" bad weather.
We have been "marched up to the top of the hill...".

None of the western-side TOCs has put up a special timetable (yet).
It's hard to see how the WCML will be less affected than the ECML.

I see the media are already saying the storm "will cost £1bn".
We shall see!

 

[Goatboy]

Would you rather they have nothing prepared, then have major disruption occur, sending a full service into chaos ?

I wonder whats best - cancelling half the trains in advance before you even know whats going to happen just in case, so they wont count as cancellations on the day...

I suppose the next logical step is to just not bother running any trains at all if the weather forecast looks a bit dodgy, then you can proudly say 'We had no unscheduled cancellations'

Is one of the contigency plans to resume full timetable on Monday if it turns out that it's the typical fuss-about-nothing?

 

[sarahj]

Well, where i live in Brighton up on the hill the wind is already getting up. I'm just glad its not coming from the north so I'm a little bit sheltered. Will be interesting to see what its like tonight when I get back after 23.00 after my evening of main line work.

I think the southern plan at the moment is just wait and see, but have a plan ready to roll out if it goes tits up. I think they are just trying to be on the ball after a big mistake during the last snow where they thought, oh it should be ok. Quickly went tits up, and by the time they got the back up plan ready, it was too late.

Yesterday leaves and fast running heavy showers hit us. My poor 313 got a flat when on coming round from Bognor into Barnham, slowed for the junction with the main coast line, on a slight drop, and the wheels went, weeeeeeeee. Even on the run from Barnham to ford the wheels were spinning.

 

[A-driver]

I wonder whats best - cancelling half the trains in advance before you even know whats going to happen just in case, so they wont count as cancellations on the day...

I suppose the next logical step is to just not bother running any trains at all if the weather forecast looks a bit dodgy, then you can proudly say 'We had no unscheduled cancellations'

Is one of the contigency plans to resume full timetable on Monday if it turns out that it's the typical fuss-about-nothing?

With most networks, once you start an emergency timetable you can't get back onto a normal full service until the next day. It's almost impossible with unit and crew diagrams. Sure they can strengthen an emergency timetable but only to an extent or else it will impact the next day to with stock being out of position etc.

It's definitely best to warn people of possible problems, plan a reduced service and warn people not to travel if they don't have to-can't possibly see how anyone can argue with that. Otherwise they get accused of doing nothing "does your company not watch the news...this storm was predicted 3 days ago" etc.

Emergency timetable or not though, with unusually high winds and rain predicted there may well be major disruption on rail, road, air and sea. All you need is a few trees falling on the lines or ohle and everything will obviously stop. Network rail etc will be stretched running around removing obstructions if it's as bad as feared.

 

[Flamingo]

I don't know what everyone's worried about! Sit back, relax and let chaos commence!

There speaks somebody who has chucked in their Sunday

 

[SF-02]

then again, no-one knows exactly what will happen, indeed perhaps not even the weather people - after all they were promising us this storm even before the weather pattern had began (which seems somewhat premature - unless the storm is 'man made' - by which I mean, 'not natural').

The Met Office never 'promise' a storm so far in advance. They offer warnings and guidance based upon data and models but never say it's nailed on. Poor media outlets do, especially those like the express for whom it's easy copy and if it doesn't happen can blame the met office ignoring their own exagerations.

They warned about the possibility due to climate conditions and the jet stream data. The system formed 5000 miles away a couple of days back though the basic scenario was known a bit before that however 100 miles here or into France can make all the difference. The Met office know that more than anyone but are often ignored by most media, even the BBC.

 

[bicbasher]

Southeastern are now suggesting they may start services from between 0900-1000 tomorrow if the storm means that Network Rail will be out clearing trees from the track.

 

[Wyvern]

That too is a common misconception. Fish got so fed up with being remembered only for that night that he threw excuse around like confetti in his later career. The only available facts are that he mentioned the call in the forecast for Britain, making no mention of Florida, then went on to say that there were indeed strong winds on the way for Britain. IIRC, the Florida story didn't emerge till about 10 years later.

If I remember rightly it hadnt shown up on the met office's computers, so he was right as far as he knew.

The good thing that came out of it was the met office got a massive budget to extend and improve their computer system.

(I got that from another source. A book about Chaos Theory if I remember rightly)

 

[hughesfowler]

Certain models now showing a downgrade in the severity of the storm , think up in the north we will have is gusty winds, nothing to severe. Thoughts to those in other parts of the country who will be affected.

Just perchance have they got everybody in a major panic ?

 

[bezzer]

Greater Anglia have got a fleet of buses ordered on standby across the region Monday morning.

Great contingency since many roads in Essex can get blocked by trees!!!

 

[GB]

Great contingency since many roads in Essex can get blocked by trees!!!

What else can they do?

 

[gord]

Me and my wife are booked on the Highland Sleeper on Tuesday night. So hoping that if there is any damage, it'll be cleared up by then. When I booked the bargin berths back in August, wanted the Monday but could only get the Tuesday so took that instead. Kind of glad we did now!

 

[A-driver]

Great contingency since many roads in Essex can get blocked by trees!!!

More chance of getting a bus round an obstruction though. Either drive around it or go back and take a different route. Not perfect but is a step up from a train-if a tree blocks the line between shenfield and Chelmsford then it can't run round it or take a diversion.

Looks like people on this thread are just looking to criticise the railway no matter what. They are basically damned if they do & damned if they don't. I think that anyone posting from now on in here trying to criticise the railways reaction to this storm should have to justify it by providing their own 'better' but most importantly still realistic contingency plan.

I take it that the poster 'bezzer' I have quoted above has many better ideas in mind than standby buses?...

 

[dk1]

Looks like a total suspension of GA services tomorrow morning.

 

[Wivenswold]

Still severe uncertainty down at the Met Office over this one. Overnight weather models seemed to downgrade not only the strength of the wind but the areas involved.

The current most reliable source is suggesting 40mph winds in the South West gusting to 65mph between 0200 and 0600. Then it moves East with gales along Southern Counties (South of the M4 basically) but with the tail of the storm lashing East Anglia mid morning before moving out to sea. At the moment it looks like the middle of East Anglia will get the worst of it.

Then, Michael Fish waded in on Sky News just now suggesting that the Met Office now think it might move north instead.

Who knows?

 

[1e10]

This picture is in the Daily Mail today. Not sure if this has been posted already so apologies if it has.

 

[Wivenswold]

Looks like a fairly normal day in Dawlish!

 

[philjo]

It's very difficult for the Met Office.
While their warning rhetoric is the same today, my reading of the maps behind them suggests it won't be as bad as previously thought.
Added to which, it will not last long (quickly swinging into the North Sea).
Another pointer is that the warning is Amber, not Red.
These days nobody will take any risks of "not forecasting" bad weather.
We have been "marched up to the top of the hill...".

I think the Met Office standard precedure is for a warning to remain on amber (Be Prepared) until shortly before the bad weather is expected to arrive at which point it would become red (take action) if it is confirmed to be as severe as forecast.
I see they have recently updated the warning to bring forward the time they expect the weather to have moved over into the North sea so the point at which the weather warning can be downgraded - now expected by 12 noon tomorrow, originally it was Mon evening. It is still on the highest level of amber though.

 

[syorksdeano]

One train journey I wouldn't want to be on tomorrow is the Pwhelli to Shrewsbury run.

Another train I wouldn't like to be on is any of the 142-144's that Northern operate....will be enough to scare anyone.

I have noticed though that a number of train companies have already made contingency plans. How come the others have yet to do so, especially Virgin?

 

[dk1]

During heavy snowfall Virgin seem to keep running as near normal VHF as possible. That has in the past impacted on service for days after due to damage to the train fleet. Not sure if a Network Rail have imposed speed restrictions on electric or all traction on that route as that will definitely affect such a fast & frequent timetable.

 

[gord]

One train journey I wouldn't want to be on tomorrow is the Pwhelli to Shrewsbury run.

Another train I wouldn't like to be on is any of the 142-144's that Northern operate....will be enough to scare anyone.

I have noticed though that a number of train companies have already made contingency plans. How come the others have yet to do so, especially Virgin?

As far as high winds go, most of Virgin's routes should be ok. The only real risks will be closer to London. Rain and flooding might be more of a issue further north. I'd be more weary about the routes heading south and east out of London.

 

[jnjkerbin]

How come the others have yet to do so, especially Virgin?

Because Richard Branson can control the weather

 

[DarloRich]

This is a beige alert - repeat this is a beige alert - what i am now upgrading to Hurricane Brian has a hastag #ukstorm :roll:

 

[alastair]

This is a beige alert - repeat this is a beige alert - what i am now upgrading to Hurricane Brian has a hastag #ukstorm :roll:

Sorry, but what are you on about? What is a beige alert?

Just curious