EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[furnessvale]

But we'll have reminded all those bl**** Europeans that WE WON THE WAR, won't we?

Did we? We certainly could have lost it, but to say we won is a bit strong.

 

[bramling]

I’m glad you found the article informative.

I also don’t disagree with your above statement. By definition, nobody voting leave knew the full implications* (and we still don’t), since none of us know what the final deal will look like. Fundamentally we voted to withdraw from a body we oppose for ideological reasons.

As demonstrated by the article, the reason this discussion often becomes so heated is that the two sides have fundamentally irreconcilable positions: leavers voted for ideology, remainers voted for pragmatism.

Therefore remainers grilling leavers on what tangible benefits Brexit will bring, and implying they’ve been duped if there aren’t any, continue to miss the point, just as the remain campaign did in 2016. Leavers didn’t vote as they did because they believed it would necessarily make the country richer.

I’m disappointed about how negotiations are progressing and I’m sure we can all agree the government is handling them badly. Would I vote leave again tomorrow? You betcha!

Most remainers I know don’t like the EU anymore than I do, but their (perfectly valid) concerns about property prices/economic growth etc. trumped that dislike when they decided how to vote.

As for the comments on education levels etc. That’s just part and parcel of democracy. I’d hazard a guess your average Labour voter is less well educated and earns less than your average Tory voter, yet that issue never comes up in relation to general elections. It also doesn’t make their votes any less valid.

*although it’s also true that remainers didn't know the full implications of a remain victory 20-30 years hence, just look at how much the EU has changed since its inception.

Great post - agree with every word of the above.

 

[Geezertronic]

This morning woke up to find £ five figures had been instantly wiped off my shares - Hill and Smith, down 20% due to profits dropping

Surely that is your own fault for bad share management. Had you kept on top of the market, you could have assessed that you would lose thousands and taken the appropriate action

 

[bramling]

So then some people voted leave not because they wanted the best for themselves and their friends and family but because the wanted to reset the land they live on to a certain point in history and hope it never changes. Insane. Absolute madness. You can't stop time. Leaving the EU won't take this country back to the 50's or the age of the empire.

Why does this nonsense about the empire keep cropping up from the remain side?

If people perceive (wrongly or rightly) that things are getting worse for whatever reason, then it's not unreasonable to try to arrest that negative process of change. I can't see any reason at all why there should be any connection with past empires - something which existed in the increasingly distant past and certainly not a subject of salience for most of today's population.

 

[bramling]

but even if the farming community did up their game sufficiently to address the need, there won't be any cheap labour from Europe to do the jobs that UK citizens think are beneath them.

On the one hand we hear how it's bad for us to be considering doing without taking in talented people, then on the other hand we hear about the need for cheap unskilled labour.

If there are jobs which UK citizens find beneath them, and I'd like to see evidence of that, then they should be incentivised. Naturally this may require an increases in wage rates to restore to an equilibrium level -- and conversely a tightening up of the benefits system to remove and incentive to remain on the dole when jobs vacancies exist. This is something this country needs to face up to, and bringing in cheap labour from the EU, or elsewhere, is just kicking a difficult problem into the long grass. Personally I'm happy to pay higher prices if it results in a reduction in immigration - in a perfect world this would be offset by tax reductions as a result of not having to contribute to the EU's budget!

If you're implying that for every EU citizen doing a low-wage job there are UK citizens drawing benefits then surely we can both agree that's not optimal let along sustainable in the long-term. Two lots of housing, two users of public services, one lot of benefits paid, and virtually no contribution to the public purse.

 

[greyman42]

This morning woke up to find £ five figures had been instantly wiped off my shares - Hill and Smith, down 20% due to profits dropping. They are into construction/roads/safety/barriers etc and clearly we aren't building the infrastructure thay they would service. Brexit related in that government projects are being delayed/cancelled? Or austerity? Uncertainty??? To be honest if we are having Brexit it would help my situation if they could get that infrastructure required for the lorries built, and built quickly!
And pass the bill on to the taxpayer of course!!
Nah, scrub that, let's stay in the EU even if it means my shares drop and save the taxpayer some dosh on top!

Shares and Fund prices have had a decent run since the referendum. If you choose to invest heavily in one company, then there is always an increased risk.

 

[mmh]

Nope, never have.

Well, wherever you've heard that from, he's who's been spreading it about today. Anyway, that's not important, what is is the lazy presumption that wanting to leave the EU equates to wanting to abandon all international relations to become sort of bizarre western version of North Korea.

 

[rdeez]

As would I.

In fact, the longer this goes on, the more bullying and intransigent the EU is, the more I want to leave!

I do find it odd to hear the EU's negotiating position/tactics described as "bullying". They're looking out for their best interests in any deal, much as we are. Can't really blame them for that.

 

[Howardh]

Surely that is your own fault for bad share management. Had you kept on top of the market, you could have assessed that you would lose thousands and taken the appropriate action

Hardly. Even after today (1122p) they are still 4x the value they were in 2012 around (250p) and back to their value just over a year ago, and I get a tasty £2k+ dividend every year. One significant fall in 6 years ain't bad share management in my book.

 

[Howardh]

I do find it odd to hear the EU's negotiating position/tactics described as "bullying". They're looking out for their best interests in any deal, much as we are. Can't really blame them for that.

The EU are looking after the interests of 27 countries and about 500m people, the UK is looking after the in£eres£s of Rees-Mogg, Bone and Redwood - the latter suggesting we should move our money overseas.

 

[Howardh]

On the one hand we hear how it's bad for us to be considering doing without taking in talented people, then on the other hand we hear about the need for cheap unskilled labour.

If there are jobs which UK citizens find beneath them, and I'd like to see evidence of that, then they should be incentivised. Naturally this may require an increases in wage rates to restore to an equilibrium level -- and conversely a tightening up of the benefits system to remove and incentive to remain on the dole when jobs vacancies exist. This is something this country needs to face up to, and bringing in cheap labour from the EU, or elsewhere, is just kicking a difficult problem into the long grass. Personally I'm happy to pay higher prices if it results in a reduction in immigration - in a perfect world this would be offset by tax reductions as a result of not having to contribute to the EU's budget!

If you're implying that for every EU citizen doing a low-wage job there are UK citizens drawing benefits then surely we can both agree that's not optimal let along sustainable in the long-term. Two lots of housing, two users of public services, one lot of benefits paid, and virtually no contribution to the public purse.

I find it interesting that - according to reports - the EU's are leaving the fruit and veg pickinng farms and aren't being replaced by British workers. It's been argued that the fields are too far from where they live. But not too far for Bulgarians, Romanians and Poles? Clearly they were heavily incentivised, the wages here being much higher than at home.

If we increase the rates proportinately for Brits to make it "worthwhile" then just how much would the goods be in the shops? Might be a case of they go rotton in the fields or in the shops - make a choice. So to make up we import cheaper food (if we can) this decimating our farming industry who can't sell what they can grow. Or our indistry diversifies to, say, food/crops that can be picked mechanically.

So no jobs then, machines take over when Brexit was supposed to free them up???? Oh, and a combine harvester doesn't pay tax on it's wages.

 

[Geezertronic]

Hardly. Even after today (1122p) they are still 4x the value they were in 2012 around (250p) and back to their value just over a year ago, and I get a tasty £2k+ dividend every year. One significant fall in 6 years ain't bad share management in my book.

Then what are you moaning about?

 

[EM2]

Well, wherever you've heard that from, he's who's been spreading it about today. Anyway, that's not important, what is is the lazy presumption that wanting to leave the EU equates to wanting to abandon all international relations to become sort of bizarre western version of North Korea.

It's not the wanting to leave the EU, it's the 'contentedness' (for want of a better word) to rely on another group of unelected bureaucrats. EU bad, but WTO good?

 

[bramling]

I find it interesting that - according to reports - the EU's are leaving the fruit and veg pickinng farms and aren't being replaced by British workers. It's been argued that the fields are too far from where they live. But not too far for Bulgarians, Romanians and Poles? Clearly they were heavily incentivised, the wages here being much higher than at home.

If we increase the rates proportinately for Brits to make it "worthwhile" then just how much would the goods be in the shops? Might be a case of they go rotton in the fields or in the shops - make a choice. So to make up we import cheaper food (if we can) this decimating our farming industry who can't sell what they can grow. Or our indistry diversifies to, say, food/crops that can be picked mechanically.

So no jobs then, machines take over when Brexit was supposed to free them up???? Oh, and a combine harvester doesn't pay tax on it's wages.

I see today’s news is reporting a slowing of London population growth. Haven’t had time to fully read into this, but if so then this is very welcome indeed.

 

[Bromley boy]

But we'll have reminded all those bl**** Europeans that WE WON THE WAR, won't we?

Which particular war are you referring to? We have won most of them, I believe.

Surely that is your own fault for bad share management. Had you kept on top of the market, you could have assessed that you would lose thousands and taken the appropriate action

Indeed - some advice from a decent broker surely needed there - I’d never let my portfolio dip that much, for sure. But then again I’m not naive enough to expose myself to a five figure loss in any one company.

That sounds a tad schoolboyish, as an investment strategy. Perhaps that’s where the problem lies, rather than with Brexit.

I do find it odd to hear the EU's negotiating position/tactics described as "bullying". They're looking out for their best interests in any deal, much as we are. Can't really blame them for that.

As we should be. If we leave with no deal I hope the small matter of our circa £40 billion divorce settlement is off the table.

It's not the wanting to leave the EU, it's the 'contentedness' (for want of a better word) to rely on another group of unelected bureaucrats. EU bad, but WTO good?

EU bad, WTO preferable.

 

[Bromley boy]

Hardly. Even after today (1122p) they are still 4x the value they were in 2012 around (250p) and back to their value just over a year ago, and I get a tasty £2k+ dividend every year. One significant fall in 6 years ain't bad share management in my book.

Apologies, just saw this response.

In which case, turn your frown upside down, embrace Brexit, enjoy your “tasty” £2k per year (how tasty can £2k actually be, seriously - things must be cheap up north?!), and quit the b*tching!

Brexit will be worth it in the end.

Hopefully .

 

[mmh]

I had a feeling this nonsense would re-occur when I saw it earlier, so being a bit of a stats nerd, I did some!

This company's share price:

went down 16% between in the month before the referendum;
went up 29% in the month after the referendum;
went up 11% in the second month after the referendum

A year after he referendum it had gone up 67% (from the pre-referendum price)
Two years after the referendum, 77%

A fantastic company to invest in, it seems. It dropped 20% in a day today, I'm not going to say that's not
dramatic, but it's also clearly bugger all to do with Brexit.

 

[VauxhallandI]

I had a feeling this nonsense would re-occur when I saw it earlier, so being a bit of a stats nerd, I did some!

This company's share price:

went down 16% between in the month before the referendum;
went up 29% in the month after the referendum;
went up 11% in the second month after the referendum

A year after he referendum it had gone up 67% (from the pre-referendum price)
Two years after the referendum, 77%

A fantastic company to invest in, it seems. It dropped 20% in a day today, I'm not going to say that's not
dramatic, but it's also clearly bugger all to do with Brexit.

Shares are subject to so many factors it's usually difficult to point the finger at one influence outside of major announcements and crashes.

That said Brexit will never be the cause of anything in the Leavers eyes even if they know it, not the hands up type it would seem.

I'd be be quite happy to thank you all for my braver new life when it happens but at the moment I don't even know where to look to se it coming as it's one big surprise.

I will be disappointed if it's just a sovereign ring in a Union Jack cracker at Christmas

 

[Howardh]

I had a feeling this nonsense would re-occur when I saw it earlier, so being a bit of a stats nerd, I did some!

This company's share price:

went down 16% between in the month before the referendum;
went up 29% in the month after the referendum;
went up 11% in the second month after the referendum

A year after he referendum it had gone up 67% (from the pre-referendum price)
Two years after the referendum, 77%

A fantastic company to invest in, it seems. It dropped 20% in a day today, I'm not going to say that's not
dramatic, but it's also clearly bugger all to do with Brexit.

Perhaps you could justify that? Personally I think it's not DIRECTLY Brexit, but it's caused by the UNCERTAINTY of Brexit which are two different things, the former means "we are not building anything for the next 15 years" and the latter "we are holding back just now and will restart/abandon when the affects of Brexit are known".
One could say the latter before a general election (new government = new projects or abandoned projects) or even the BoE determining base rates.
Whatever - Brexit is using up a lot of money right now (not to mention the £40bn divorce bill) in civil servant salaries alone and must be deflecting money that could be used on infrastructure.
**Cost caluclator, may be taken with a pinch of salt https://costofbrexit.bitballoon.com

 

[nidave]

Trump will 'force' May's government to accept hormone beef and chlorinated chicken after Brexit

http://uk.businessinsider.com/peter...beef-chlorine-washed-chicken-2018-7?r=US&IR=T

 

[nidave]

... trade on WTO terms is always available.

Most people would be OK with Australia as it is well developed and socially similar, but not India or Turkey. Especially not the latter with Erdogan in charge.

Agan, you are not making the trade deals. You have no fecking choice in the matter. Trade deal= freedom of movement.

It's not hard to get your head around. You won't get the any choice, the decision to make a deal or not under these terms will be made by you.

You have never had any say in any decision apart from who to vote for then the decisions are made for you. Brexit will not change that.
"welcome to taking back control"

 

[rdeez]

Trump will 'force' May's government to accept hormone beef and chlorinated chicken after Brexit

http://uk.businessinsider.com/peter...beef-chlorine-washed-chicken-2018-7?r=US&IR=T

This is one of my biggest Brexit fears - that part of the process of striking trade deals with countries like the USA will be the lowering of our standards to the lowest common denominator. Trump's USA will see this as a great opportunity to force their dubious food on us, whether it's chlorinated chicken and hormone-infused beef or milk from infected cows. The USA for example allows a white blood cell count almost double the EU standards in its milk - with higher counts being an indicator of cows suffering from infections, likely as a result of the conditions they are kept in. I remember Liam Fox stating it is perfectly safe and he'd have "no problem" eating chlorine-washed chicken, spectacularly missing the point: the fact that it's washed in chlorine isn't neccessarily the problem; it's the reason why they do it (to compensate for the shocking lack of standards on their farms). They will almost certainly insist on this and we will almost certainly (under a Tory government, at least) cave in with our greatly reduced bargaining power.

And it's not just food: despite insistence from May that the Tories intend to protect things like workers rights after Brexit, she can only speak for herself and not for the pretenders to her throne like Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Raab et al. who are all known to favour labour laws more closely mimicking those of the USA - "at will" employment with limited or no protection from dismissal, dilution of minimum wage law, reduced leave entitlements to name just a few. Working time regulations will be another easy target, probably under the guise of "improving productivity".

And it will all be justified with "it's necessary to protect the economy..."

 

[Puffing Devil]

And it will all be justified with "it's necessary to protect the economy..."

Which will be tanking as we left the EU.

 

[nidave]

But.. But.. Taking back control...

 

[Puffing Devil]

And BLUE passports. That we could have had anyway.... at least we'll be printing them in the UK and not some EU country.......

 

[fowler9]

Why does this nonsense about the empire keep cropping up from the remain side?

If people perceive (wrongly or rightly) that things are getting worse for whatever reason, then it's not unreasonable to try to arrest that negative process of change. I can't see any reason at all why there should be any connection with past empires - something which existed in the increasingly distant past and certainly not a subject of salience for most of today's population.

Because some (Not all) Brexiteers go on about how we can trade with the Commonwealth (Like India, who want freedom of movement to be part of the deal).

 

[Jonny]

Agan, you are not making the trade deals. You have no fecking choice in the matter. Trade deal= freedom of movement.

It's not hard to get your head around. You won't get the any choice, the decision to make a deal or not under these terms will be made by you.

You have never had any say in any decision apart from who to vote for then the decisions are made for you. Brexit will not change that.
"welcome to taking back control"

Anyway, India and Turkey are probably low priorities vs trading on WTO terms...

Also, I'm not the only one that thinks the same way.

 

[bramling]

Because some (Not all) Brexiteers go on about how we can trade with the Commonwealth (Like India, who want freedom of movement to be part of the deal).

And some people commit murder and theft, but most don’t!

 

[fowler9]

And some people commit murder and theft, but most don’t!

Wow, that's quite a leap.

 

[eotw]

Anyway, India and Turkey are probably low priorities vs trading on WTO terms...

So who do you want a trade deal with?

We hear so much about how UK will be free to trade deals but I am not sure what amazing new markets the UK is going to find.

Also much talk of exit with NO Deal and trading on WTO terms, this appears to be much less straight forward than we have been led to believe - our Schedule has already been contested by a number of countries and it is not all clear to what extent we can roll over the 60 to 100 existing trade deals the EU already has.

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/02/13/grandfathering-eu-ftas/

or a simple process
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/25/wto-eu-uk-consumers-trade-deals (Warning old article)

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-b...tting-wto-membership-agreements-idUKKBN1KE2LJ

And if we default or refuse to pay our divorce settlement to the EU, as these are international treaty obligations we have committed to, dealing with other nations will be even harder as we will be seem as untrustworthy.