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Carmarthen to Aberystwyth Reopening?

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squizzler

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I hope this means the campaign to reopen the railway has focused minds on improving the bus service and that the Welsh Government will now be arranging funding for improvements.

That may be true of many of the pepole promoting the idea but I wouldn't necessarily go along with that being 'the only reason'. My personal opinion is that the TrawsCymru bus network has underdelivered; if I recall correctly when the rebranding was officially announced the two launch routes (TC1 and TC4) were to have brand new buses with improved legroom, coach-style seats and the TC1 was to run from 6am to 8pm. In the event the TC1 didn't happen due to Arriva blocking the Welsh Government's plans and the new buses were stored until finding a use on the Cardiff Airport Express (T9). Thus when the T1 finally arrived normal buses were used and the first bus from Aberystwyth remains at 06:40; reaching Carmarthen at 08:57 (too late for commuters, although there is an earlier bus from Lampeter), the last bus from Carmarthen is 19:05 and the 19:45 from Aberystwyth (last bus for Carmarthen) is a T5 to Cardigan; change at Aberaeron for the T1 to Carmarthen. (Times are from the 2015 timetable, but I don't think it has changed much).

Even the T(C)4, which did get the promissed new buses, isn't particularly great; when I sampled them on the T9 I didn't find the coach-style seats to be any more comfortable than the normal seats on most buses. Also, the 'improved legroom' was limited to a few seats (and even those actually had less legroom than the two 55-plate buses ordered for the TrawsCambria X50 service several years before).

If pepole consider the current public transport offering to be poor it is no wonder that there are demands for improvements; in my opinion it is just a shame that TrawsLinkCymru went straight for a Carmarthen-Aberystwyth rail link as phase 1 of their scheme. I think they should have focused on new/improved Bangor-Caernarfon and Carmarthen-Cardiff rail services with the section in between getting enhanced bus services (and safeguarded rail routes just in case). Maybe throw in an extra passing loop or two on the Cambrian Coast Line to enable a fast Machynlleth-Porthmadog service in (some of) the opposite hours to the current stoppers.

I wouldn't go as far as "absolutely no potential" either, but I object to such sums of money being spent just to decide whether to take a specific scheme forward; especially if it is fairly obvious you don't have the budget to built it anyway. If you are paying a consultant £300,000 it would have been better to set an objective in terms of either reduced car use or reduced greenhouse gas emmisions. The consultant's role would then be to examine various options including bus and different rail routes to establish which offers the best cost:benift ratio (where the benifit is reduced emmisions/car-mileage).

Mwnt isn't on a bus route that you could connect to from a Carmarthen-Aberystwyth train either; if I recall correctly it has two buses each way daily between Quay West and Cardigan in summer and the same timetable (but only 2 or 3 days per week) in winter.

Thank you for what is a more thoughtful post than many we have seen on this thread so far. I would disagree with the premise that many of the benefits can be met by bus improvements. Whilst better value on paper and perfectly acceptable to those in the know, restoring the credibility of bus transport will be a multi-generational project akin with that of restoring the credibility of train travel in the public mind (shall we say that started with the intercity era?).

My opinion is that the economy of west wales will, for as long as the current economic structure of the UK endures, always be heavily dependent on subsidy. I know it well - it is a beautiful area but cut off from markets by the poor transport links. If we accept that the economy will require many millions a year in state investment, how do we go about that? Do you want to be forever dependent on handing out grants for farm maintenance / diversification, or for tourism, or do you invest in the infrastructure that primes the pump for further privately funded development. In fact the railway itself could also be privately funded on a design/build/operate contract (not the same as it being viable in farebox receipts, before anybody says). I say that all other things being equal the latter option is better, because at least you got a useful piece of infrastructure at the end of it.

Besides, whatever the current leader of the Welsh Government might say, the construction of this railway is a longer term project than the currently residing welsh government, which is likely to change in the next election.

Some people have a very hard time accepting change and accepting that the world will move further and further away from what it was (or what they remember it was) like during their favourite part of their lives. Someone once told me change happens one funeral at a time... Its harsh but there is a lot of truth in it. Reopening the line would clearly be a colossal waste of money and the lack of interest in more sensible options such as enhanced coach services and joint ticketing betrays the motivation for wanting to reopen the line.
I am too young to remember the original railway line between Aberystwyth and Caermarthen. The only change I see people having difficulty accepting on this thread is the change in thinking from the Beeching era - when the railways were expected to be viable in narrow fare-box revenue terms - to being an important part of the infrastructure which supports economic and social activity in an ecologically less damaging way.
 
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Chester1

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Thank you for what is a more thoughtful post than many we have seen on this thread so far. I would disagree with the premise that many of the benefits can be met by bus improvements. Whilst better value on paper and perfectly acceptable to those in the know, restoring the credibility of bus transport will be a multi-generational project akin with that of restoring the credibility of train travel in the public mind (shall we say that started with the intercity era?).

My opinion is that the economy of west wales will, for as long as the current economic structure of the UK endures, always be heavily dependent on subsidy. I know it well - it is a beautiful area but cut off from markets by the poor transport links. If we accept that the economy will require many millions a year in state investment, how do we go about that? Do you want to be forever dependent on handing out grants for farm maintenance / diversification, or for tourism, or do you invest in the infrastructure that primes the pump for further privately funded development. In fact the railway itself could also be privately funded on a design/build/operate contract (not the same as it being viable in farebox receipts, before anybody says). I say that all other things being equal the latter option is better, because at least you got a useful piece of infrastructure at the end of it.

Besides, whatever the current leader of the Welsh Government might say, the construction of this railway is a longer term project than the currently residing welsh government, which is likely to change in the next election.


I am too young to remember the original railway line between Aberystwyth and Caermarthen. The only change I see people having difficulty accepting on this thread is the change in thinking from the Beeching era - when the railways were expected to be viable in narrow fare-box revenue terms - to being an important part of the infrastructure which supports economic and social activity in an ecologically less damaging way.

Its not Beeching era thinking to expect vaugely decent fare revanue from a reopening. There are plenty of reopenings that would require some opperating subsidy but that make sense from a wider economic and social perspective. Aberystwyth - Swansea/Cardiff could be served by a subsidised express coach service with the DfT or WG having a statuatory obligation for a specific service level and intergrated ticketing with the rail network. That could be done without spending hundreds of millions of pounds building a railway through a very rural part of the UK. Hirwaun, Caernarfon and Abertillery would probably all require a subsidy but much smaller and could be done for a fraction of the cost of Aberystwyth - Carmarthen. Extending from Carmarthen Station to a station to serve the Glangwili hospital and to connect the Gwili railway to the national network could potentially be justified on wider benefits.
 

squizzler

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Aberystwyth - Swansea/Cardiff could be served by a subsidised express coach service with the DfT or WG having a statuatory obligation for a specific service level and intergrated ticketing with the rail network. That could be done without spending hundreds of millions of pounds building a railway through a very rural part of the UK.

I have recently spent some time in the area which involved frequently driving the road between Machynlleth and Caersws which runs parallel to the railway line. The road is shared with a Lloyds coaches route between Machynlleth and Newtown.

Despite what would presumably be much cheaper fares on the bus, I rarely saw more than a handful of people on board. Prior experience tells me that the Arriva Trains Wales Service would be very well loaded. This experience clearly demonstrates overwhelming public preference for train over bus.

Even though the T1 bus is popular and well regarded as things stand, a rail service on that route is likely to multiply ridership several times over.
 

Gareth Marston

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I have recently spent some time in the area which involved frequently driving the road between Machynlleth and Caersws which runs parallel to the railway line. The road is shared with a Lloyds coaches route between Machynlleth and Newtown.

Despite what would presumably be much cheaper fares on the bus, I rarely saw more than a handful of people on board. Prior experience tells me that the Arriva Trains Wales Service would be very well loaded. This experience clearly demonstrates overwhelming public preference for train over bus.

Even though the T1 bus is popular and well regarded as things stand, a rail service on that route is likely to multiply ridership several times over.

As I pointed out long ago if high quality coaches are that good and popular why hasn't National Express driven the railway out of business in Mid Wales? Theirs still one NEX coach a day from London to Aberystwyth similarly carting fresh air like the X85 does at non college times. I fact the railway has a very high market share c40% on the section from Cemmeas Road to Caersws.
 

30907

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I have recently spent some time in the area which involved frequently driving the road between Machynlleth and Caersws which runs parallel to the railway line. The road is shared with a Lloyds coaches route between Machynlleth and Newtown.

Despite what would presumably be much cheaper fares on the bus, I rarely saw more than a handful of people on board. Prior experience tells me that the Arriva Trains Wales Service would be very well loaded. This experience clearly demonstrates overwhelming public preference for train over bus.

But the train doesnt just run Newtown-Machynlleth. I am sure Gareth Marston would be able to estimate what percentage of passengers over this section are travelling further - I would hazard 95.
 

gwr4090

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I was a reasonably regular traveller on the Carmarthen-Aberystwyth line at the end of the steam era. My recollection is that passenger loadings were quite minimal north of Pencader. The line was kept open largely by the healthy milk and freight trafffic. I have fond memories of a Manor and 2 coaches on a southbound working shunting milk tanks in Pont Lanio yard (passenger coaches and all !), and I think there was even some rope shunting to get the tanks out of the milk factory siding, although I suspect this was all strictly against the rules. The guard came round and told passengers to sit tight and not to be alarmed by all the shunting activities ! I also managed a footplate ride on a 74xx pannier on the daily Carmarthen-Newcastle Emlyn freight, after hiding in the brake van until we were clear of Carmarthen.

I find it hard to conceive that there will be any case to reopen the passenger service between Carmarthen and Aberystwyth. FAR more important to accelerate the Cardiff West Wales train services by using the Swansea District line. Current services are very slow (compared with use of the M4 and A40).
 

ChiefPlanner

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I was a reasonably regular traveller on the Carmarthen-Aberystwyth line at the end of the steam era. My recollection is that passenger loadings were quite minimal north of Pencader. The line was kept open largely by the healthy milk and freight trafffic. I have fond memories of a Manor and 2 coaches on a southbound working shunting milk tanks in Pont Lanio yard (passenger coaches and all !), and I think there was even some rope shunting to get the tanks out of the milk factory siding, although I suspect this was all strictly against the rules. The guard came round and told passengers to sit tight and not to be alarmed by all the shunting activities ! I also managed a footplate ride on a 74xx pannier on the daily Carmarthen-Newcastle Emlyn freight, after hiding in the brake van until we were clear of Carmarthen.

I find it hard to conceive that there will be any case to reopen the passenger service between Carmarthen and Aberystwyth. FAR more important to accelerate the Cardiff West Wales train services by using the Swansea District line. Current services are very slow (compared with use of the M4 and A40).

Agreed - as said many times before. Not a scrap of freight anywhere - and as we know there were milk millionaires in London from the blessings of "Under Milk Wood" land , achieved in this part of the world by the GWR.

Dead as a dodo , in the "Bible Black Night" .....spend money where there are people. Not much in the new franchise for West of Swansea on existing lines.
 

squizzler

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It's hardly surprising the passenger service was unviable if it was not only on a twisty old alignment and also had to stop every few miles to shunt wagons. Presumably a new railway would not suffer those handicaps.
 

Tobbes

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It's hardly surprising the passenger service was unviable if it was not only on a twisty old alignment and also had to stop every few miles to shunt wagons. Presumably a new railway would not suffer those handicaps.

There certainly wouldn't be pick up mixed trains, but the twists were rather imposed by the hills, and a substantial straightening (West Wales LGV?) would require some pretty serious (and seriously expensive) civil engineering. Topomap is your friend: http://en-gb.topographic-map.com/places/Abergwili-4430854/
 

ChiefPlanner

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It's hardly surprising the passenger service was unviable if it was not only on a twisty old alignment and also had to stop every few miles to shunt wagons. Presumably a new railway would not suffer those handicaps.

A new railway based on a fantasy business case.
 

Rhydgaled

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FAR more important to accelerate the Cardiff West Wales train services by using the Swansea District line. Current services are very slow (compared with use of the M4 and A40).
I agree (although Carmarthen-Cardiff is M4 and A48; you only get on the A40 when going from Carmarthen west towards Pembrokeshire). TrawsLinkCymru, the group behind the campaign to reopen Carmarthen-Aberystwyth, actually proposed use of the Swansea District Line as well; given how successful they have been in obtaining political attention (and even some funding; two consultant's studies now isn't it?) I think it is a crying shame that they didn't prioritise the Swansea District Line aspect as phase one of their scheme.

.....spend money where there are people. Not much in the new franchise for West of Swansea on existing lines.
In Dyfed terms; Carmarthen, Lampeter and Aberystwyth are were the people are (also the 5 main Pembrokeshire towns). The new franchise indeed disapoints regarding services west of Swansea; in fact I don't think there is anything concrete only a vauge possibility of enhanced Sunday services as part of a franchise-wide enhancement to Sunday timetables.

As for what we're not getting; for starters Haverfordwest seriously needs an arrival from Milford Haven sometime between 08:00 and 08:30. That could form part of an hourly Carmarthen-Cardiff express via the Swansea District Line, with alternate trains extending to Haverfordwest (which would have Swansea services in the other hours) and 2 per day (boat trains) to Fishguard. Pad the Fishguard timetable out to every 2-3 hours with additional Swansea services and the service would be as good as it can be without throwing in an extra passing loop or two on the Pembroke and Tenby line (ideally along with double-track from Clarbeston Road to Haverfordwest). But nothing in the new franchise (yet).

It's hardly surprising the passenger service was unviable if it was not only on a twisty old alignment and also had to stop every few miles to shunt wagons. Presumably a new railway would not suffer those handicaps.
There certainly wouldn't be pick up mixed trains, but the twists were rather imposed by the hills, and a substantial straightening (West Wales LGV?) would require some pretty serious (and seriously expensive) civil engineering. Topomap is your friend: http://en-gb.topographic-map.com/places/Abergwili-4430854/
I've always said that reopenning the Aberystwyth-Carmarthen line as it was is a stupid idea. If you could sort out the twisty alignment (building a new line, using the old alignment only where it is reasonably straight, instead of reopening the old one) so it is faster than driving then it might make a little sense. The new route would look something like this and would require two new long tunnels (one of which, at the Aberystwyth end, is likely to be necessary just to get the line into the town given that the old slow route has been built on anyway). Unfortunately, the other new tunnel needed is at the south end not far from Carmarthen so there isn't a 'cheap half' of the line (without an expensive new tunnel) that you could build to reconnect Lampeter to the rail network and thereby reduce the bus leg.

In short, a new line could make sense; but in order to make it make sense you need to make it (prohibitively?) expensive.
 

Tobbes

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I've always said that reopenning the Aberystwyth-Carmarthen line as it was is a stupid idea. If you could sort out the twisty alignment (building a new line, using the old alignment only where it is reasonably straight, instead of reopening the old one) so it is faster than driving then it might make a little sense. The new route would look something like this and would require two new long tunnels (one of which, at the Aberystwyth end, is likely to be necessary just to get the line into the town given that the old slow route has been built on anyway). Unfortunately, the other new tunnel needed is at the south end not far from Carmarthen so there isn't a 'cheap half' of the line (without an expensive new tunnel) that you could build to reconnect Lampeter to the rail network and thereby reduce the bus leg.

In short, a new line could make sense; but in order to make it make sense you need to make it (prohibitively?) expensive.

Interesting - what are the colour codes, please? Red seems to be tunnel (in which case the southern tunnel may as well go due north to Llanpumpsaint, it's about the same length) but is there actually a route south from the Gwili's southern railhead into Carmathen? I'm also a confused about the difference between green, blue and yellow?
 

snowball

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is there actually a route south from the Gwili's southern railhead into Carmathen?
I think a route is possible alongside the A40, through what is at present the side slope of the road cutting, under the side span of this bridge, over the river on a rebuilt bridge and into the station.

Personally I've only ever thought about it as an extension to the Gwili railway rather than as part of a reopening of the whole route.
 

Tobbes

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I think a route is possible alongside the A40, through what is at present the side slope of the road cutting, under the side span of this bridge, over the river on a rebuilt bridge and into the station.

Personally I've only ever thought about it as an extension to the Gwili railway rather than as part of a reopening of the whole route.

Thanks, tight but presumably doable. Interesting.
 

Rhydgaled

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Interesting - what are the colour codes, please? Red seems to be tunnel (in which case the southern tunnel may as well go due north to Llanpumpsaint, it's about the same length) but is there actually a route south from the Gwili's southern railhead into Carmathen? I'm also a confused about the difference between green, blue and yellow?
I think the red, orange, yellow and blue relate to the expected difficulty/cost of construction, with blue being reuse of the old alignment, yellow being relatively simple re-alignment (plus the Gwili where it would be the old alignment but potentially difficult operationally with different speed restrictions for heritage and national rail services) and red and orange being difficult re-alignment. The two red sections would both require tunnels (although the northern red section would not all be tunnel, it would nonetheless be a significant engineering challange), the and the orange one might require short tunnel(s). The green started out as 'original alignment that looks like it might be straight enough for 90mph running with only slight realignment' but then I ran out of patience and didn't bother spliting the short sections around Lampeter and Tregaron off to make them yellow. Similarly the Ystradmeurig to Llanfarian bit should mostly have been blue, with a small yellow section (an eased curve) at the Ystradmeurig end.

I thought making the southern tunnel go due-north, as you suggest, would mean a longer tunnel and hence a more expensive route but your suggestion would be better if it didn't add any more to the cost.

For the other routes on the map, the colours are just done to break up the line to make it clear where new alignment, reopened alignment and, in the case of the Oswestry route, existing track start and finish. The Merthyr-Newtown route was not plotted in detail like that; I just did a rough concept and made it all red because I couldn't be bothered to pick out the bits that might be usefully reopenned (there wasn't much if I recall correctly).
 
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Tobbes

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Thanks, very interesting, @Rhydgaled .

If you were to do this, (and since we're talking fantasy football here anyway), I'd almost suggest taking over the Gwili's line south of Llwyfan Cerrig station, build an interchange, and then compensate Gwilli by rebuilding the bridges to allow them to get to Llanpumpsaint on the old route as a heritage trip leaving the new line in a tunnel direct to Llanpumpsaint.
 

Spartacus

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Frankly, I don't think it's a good choice of route to rebuild anyway, but if if is done I think that dumping standard gauge would be the way to go, and use some sort of narrow gauge diesel powered tram/train solution. Reconstruction costs would be far lower, as would be costs for any diversions, signalling could be simplified and you could even have through working onto the VoR if you really wanted! lol At either end you could solve the station access problems by on-street running, particularly useful in Carmarthen given the problem of the A40.

There's a good read on the general subject here:https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/all-...64#comments-6436332051267416064&trk=prof-post
 

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Frankly, I don't think it's a good choice of route to rebuild anyway, but if if is done I think that dumping standard gauge would be the way to go, and use some sort of narrow gauge diesel powered tram/train solution. Reconstruction costs would be far lower, as would be costs for any diversions, signalling could be simplified and you could even have through working onto the VoR if you really wanted! lol At either end you could solve the station access problems by on-street running, particularly useful in Carmarthen given the problem of the A40.

There's a good read on the general subject here:https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/all-...64#comments-6436332051267416064&trk=prof-post

Might have been OK in rural France , circa 1880 (check the Freycinet (sic) report around the time) , but not going to get folk out of their air conditioned , eco cars with all the comforts of the day. Maybe Mr Rees-Mogg might run with it....

In fact the entire catchment area of this region , could be given a free car , instead of building a no-hope railway , much as the discredited ex George Thomas suggested regarding the HoW around 1967.
 

Spartacus

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Might have been OK in rural France , circa 1880 (check the Freycinet (sic) report around the time) , but not going to get folk out of their air conditioned , eco cars with all the comforts of the day. Maybe Mr Rees-Mogg might run with it....

In fact the entire catchment area of this region , could be given a free car , instead of building a no-hope railway , much as the discredited ex George Thomas suggested regarding the HoW around 1967.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's particularly a good idea, just better than a full bells and whistles standard gauge line. Something like the modern systems (and I stress modern) in some places in Europe, and like them there's no need to go so narrow as the old lines.. If the Welsh Assembly gets a bee in it's bonnet about doing something they might as well have a least worse solution.
 

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Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's particularly a good idea, just better than a full bells and whistles standard gauge line. Something like the modern systems (and I stress modern) in some places in Europe, and like them there's no need to go so narrow as the old lines.. If the Welsh Assembly gets a bee in it's bonnet about doing something they might as well have a least worse solution.

Fair enough - I hope the WG does not get burnt with the franchise just let for the rest of the Network . - agreed what the Swiss do with NG lines is impressive (if expensive for non residents!)
 

ChiefPlanner

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Time to bump this forum thread - the scoping report has been published with a "cost" of £750 million and crushingly a BCR of 0.43.

(meanwhile , in the rest of the world , the project to build Titanic 2 has apparently restarted. Maybe the 2 projects could be linked with a Fishguard to New York connection - change at Carmarthen)
 

Tobbes

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Time to bump this forum thread - the scoping report has been published with a "cost" of £750 million and crushingly a BCR of 0.43.

Oouf! Is there a link to the report, please? Crucially, this being a wholly political project, does it cover its operating costs (i.e., an example where capital is treated as a sunk cost and social investment, but the whole thing is justified on the basis that it will cover its running costs).
 

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ChiefPlanner

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Thanks very much - will read with interest.

Just sat down with a strong coffee and speed read the report. It really is a commendable piece of work all round. A well spent hour.

I particularly enjoyed the route descriptions (being quite familiar with it) , the economic studies are first class , and I note the inclusion of a planned signalling diagram. 30 years ago they could have found some Welsh mining skills for the 1 km tunnel under Pendinas.

The case , even with this level of cost and benefits is not good. However , their call if they wish to fund it.
 

Tobbes

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Just sat down with a strong coffee and speed read the report. It really is a commendable piece of work all round. A well spent hour.

I particularly enjoyed the route descriptions (being quite familiar with it) , the economic studies are first class , and I note the inclusion of a planned signalling diagram. 30 years ago they could have found some Welsh mining skills for the 1 km tunnel under Pendinas.

The case , even with this level of cost and benefits is not good. However , their call if they wish to fund it.

I've flicked through it, too. Being only an interested amatuer, much of the technical detail was lost on me, but the economics seems sound. What is pounded home is simply how rural and remote the region is, and therefore that the BCR would be dreadful (as everyone here predicted, though it's actually worse than I'd expected). But if the WG wants to fund it, and it meets their political and regeneration needs, then this paper shows how to do it.
 

ChiefPlanner

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I've flicked through it, too. Being only an interested amatuer, much of the technical detail was lost on me, but the economics seems sound. What is pounded home is simply how rural and remote the region is, and therefore that the BCR would be dreadful (as everyone here predicted, though it's actually worse than I'd expected). But if the WG wants to fund it, and it meets their political and regeneration needs, then this paper shows how to do it.

A particularly striking map shows the route compared to population density. In a very thinly populated area / region - the route almost zeros in on the least settled area. They do , perceptively, note that some people find the remoteness attractive ....."a Green desert , lightly policed..." as quoted by Ian Marchant. (who studied at Lampeter) .....

Solid piece of work in all respects.
 

Gareth Marston

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Well stranger things have happened - there's an allegation that the Tory's have abolished the tolls on the Severn Bridge in order to make traffic congestion so bad that it forces the Welsh Government to build a duplicate stretch of Motorway around Newport.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-45913971
The abolition of the Severn tolls is being used to force the Welsh Government to build the M4 Relief Road, a Labour AM has claimed.

Lee Waters raised concerns after a UK government study claimed it may lead to six million more vehicles a year.

He said UK ministers were "unleashing" extra traffic and trying to "dictate" transport policy in Wales.

As a supporter to rail in Wales (and anywhere else) in the Uk I woudl be more concerned about this than a scoping report.
 
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