Carmarthen to Aberystwyth Reopening?

[michaelh]

The political map down in my homeland is very interesting - Gower a major marginal (much of the constituency is not just the glorious peninsula but the post industrial areas of Gowerton etc - the doubling of the route and a much better station has yielded excellent new patronage) , and of course Brecon and Radnor (rail-less regrettably)

Carmarthen was of course the very first Plaid seat by tomato grower Gwynfor Evans in the mid 1960's - and we must not forget the saving of the Heart of Wales was supposedly down to the suggestion by George Thomas to Harold Wilson that the route passed through no less than 5 marginal seats. Did the trick. Saved again in 1972. As I mentioned before , the HoW is a line that could benefit from a few quick wins which would be easy to implement.

There is obvious support locally - perhaps due to the particular Welsh "hiraeth" (a love of the land ,nostalgia , and of course a deep sense of community etc) - but , if anyone is really up for it - then go for it.

What are these few quick wins?

 

[Gareth]

It is topography rather than an English conspiracy. Even if Plaid got their way and Wales became a foreign country, there'd probably still be more people greeting the border guards than the Cambrians during transit.

 

[6Gman]

I'm probably one of the few people on here ever to have travelled Llandudno Junction - Cardiff via Aber and Carmarthen

We changed at Afon Wen, Dyfi Jn, Aberystwyth, Carmarthen and Swansea (I think). Spread across two days (night in Aber).

A year later we needed to make the journey again. One or two changes and took half a day.

Via Shrewsbury.

 

[Rhydgaled]

What are these few quick wins?

I second that question. I doubt doubling most of the route south of Pantyffynnon (to allow 1-2tph Swansea-Ammanford local services) would fall into the 'quick win' category.

I tried to design an enhanced timetable for the HOWL a while back and when I posted it on here (or may have been the FirstGWR Coffee Shop) I was told that I hadn't allowed enough time at the passing loops and the need for all HOWL trains (in both directions) to use the same platform at Craven Arms was an issue given that there wasn't much time between one train clearing the single line and the next one coming south. In that regard one of the 'quick wins' might be to allow HOWL trains to use both platforms at Craven Arms (Wikipedia suggests that has in fact been done). If the Craven Arms issue has indeed been sorted, I'm not sure what other 'quick wins' there could be. I think my enhanced timetable would require a minute or two to be cut from the schedule between all or most of the loops; is that something that could be easily done with linespeed improvements or would it be very challanging?

 

[Western Lord]

Having spent many holidays in North Wales over the years I have never detected an urgent desire among the locals to travel to Cardiff. In more recent times, disdain for politicians in Cardiff seems to match or exceed that for politicians in Westminster.

 

[edwin_m]

I second that question. I doubt doubling most of the route south of Pantyffynnon (to allow 1-2tph Swansea-Ammanford local services) would fall into the 'quick win' category.

I tried to design an enhanced timetable for the HOWL a while back and when I posted it on here (or may have been the FirstGWR Coffee Shop) I was told that I hadn't allowed enough time at the passing loops and the need for all HOWL trains (in both directions) to use the same platform at Craven Arms was an issue given that there wasn't much time between one train clearing the single line and the next one coming south. In that regard one of the 'quick wins' might be to allow HOWL trains to use both platforms at Craven Arms (Wikipedia suggests that has in fact been done). If the Craven Arms issue has indeed been sorted, I'm not sure what other 'quick wins' there could be. I think my enhanced timetable would require a minute or two to be cut from the schedule between all or most of the loops; is that something that could be easily done with linespeed improvements or would it be very challanging?

That's interesting. I looked at similar issues back in 2013 when I was involved in a feasibility study, though I don't remember Craven Arms coming up as an issue.

153s are typically a bit slower than other Sprinter types so re-timing for something like a 156 might get you a few minutes assuming TfW could get hold of the relevant units. So, probably, would a 230 but being limited to 60mph that would lose out on the 75mph sections into Shrewsbury and Swansea. But part of the problem with a long single line is that the timetable is constrained by having the trains meet each other at the loops, so the journey time is effectively tied to the frequency. So trying to do something more radical like introducing 196s or FLIRTs might accelerate some station to station times but risks the saving just being wasted sitting for longer at the next loop.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

That's interesting. I looked at similar issues back in 2013 when I was involved in a feasibility study, though I don't remember Craven Arms coming up as an issue.

153s are typically a bit slower than other Sprinter types so re-timing for something like a 156 might get you a few minutes assuming TfW could get hold of the relevant units. So, probably, would a 230 but being limited to 60mph that would lose out on the 75mph sections into Shrewsbury and Swansea. But part of the problem with a long single line is that the timetable is constrained by having the trains meet each other at the loops, so the journey time is effectively tied to the frequency. So trying to do something more radical like introducing 196s or FLIRTs might accelerate some station to station times but risks the saving just being wasted sitting for longer at the next loop.

Are you really being serious when you make mention of Class 230 units as a traction mode for such a very long journey and multi-station entity that is the Heart of Wales line?

 

[option]

How much of the Cardiff to Holyhead route could you electrify and resignal for the same price as throwing money away on a West Wales route?

How many improvements could you make to the existing services with the millions that would be spent just on 'studies'...

 

[edwin_m]

Are you really being serious when you make mention of Class 230 units as a traction mode for such a very long journey and multi-station entity that is the Heart of Wales line?

Fitted with an appropriate interior I don't see why not - they claim they can offer something much more suitable for longer journeys than the ones they have produced so far. And on the HoWL proper the speed doesn't get anywhere near 60mph, though as I mentioned there could be problems getting to and from it.

 

[option]

Unless you're building hospitals, spending money on running the NHS or building new infrastructure can't easily be compared.

If you've got a pot of money to build a new line of £100bn and your NHS spend is £130bn using the £100bn doesn't help the NHS as much as you think.

As the budget for the NHS doesn't become £230bn, or if it does it's only for one year.

Even spread over 10 years that's only £140bn Vs £130bn.

However you either have to cut more infrastructure spending or cut the extra spending (either as a cut our not by increasing the budget as fast as you otherwise would have) or fund it from other sources. The latter is likely to be harder as the economy is likely to have grown more due to the better rail links if the infrastructure had been built.

Now clearly if there's an ongoing subsidy for the rail line that's a different matter. However is likely to be relatively small compared to NHS spending. However if you were to include government income from the extra railway staff's taxes and the boost to the economy from the line it's probably worth doing.

Let's say that re-opening the line would cost £1bn.

£1bn spent on health infrastructure, as in buildings that are more efficient to run, would save a lot more than any increased tax revenues from an unknown economic boost.

 

[Llanigraham]

I second that question. I doubt doubling most of the route south of Pantyffynnon (to allow 1-2tph Swansea-Ammanford local services) would fall into the 'quick win' category.

I tried to design an enhanced timetable for the HOWL a while back and when I posted it on here (or may have been the FirstGWR Coffee Shop) I was told that I hadn't allowed enough time at the passing loops and the need for all HOWL trains (in both directions) to use the same platform at Craven Arms was an issue given that there wasn't much time between one train clearing the single line and the next one coming south. In that regard one of the 'quick wins' might be to allow HOWL trains to use both platforms at Craven Arms (Wikipedia suggests that has in fact been done). If the Craven Arms issue has indeed been sorted, I'm not sure what other 'quick wins' there could be. I think my enhanced timetable would require a minute or two to be cut from the schedule between all or most of the loops; is that something that could be easily done with linespeed improvements or would it be very challanging?

I can confirm it has been done, and the cross-over moved south of the station.

 

[Bobdogs]

I live within 5 minutes of a T1 stop and, as a concessionary pass holder, and despite the vehicles giving a harsh and uncomfortable ride and rattling non stop, I am extremely grateful for the service. The majority of passengers are, like myself, pass holders. There is no way we are going to pay to use the train.In my opinion, it will never happen.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Fitted with an appropriate interior I don't see why not - they claim they can offer something much more suitable for longer journeys than the ones they have produced so far. And on the HoWL proper the speed doesn't get anywhere near 60mph, though as I mentioned there could be problems getting to and from it.

Noting what you say above about the Class 230 units, in their previous existence as D-stock on the London Underground system, what would have been the maximum end to end journey length have been and what is the comparative journey length of such an average end to end journey on the Heart of Wales line? What mode of traction do you envisage the Class 230 units would be given for service on this line and noting the terrain, would any line areas pose difficulty in allowing line access, in the case of the Vivarail proposed methodology, should the diesel traction (if chosen) need replacing in case of a failure?

 

[edwin_m]

Noting what you say above about the Class 230 units, in their previous existence as D-stock on the London Underground system, what would have been the maximum end to end journey length have been and what is the comparative journey length of such an average end to end journey on the Heart of Wales line? What mode of traction do you envisage the Class 230 units would be given for service on this line and noting the terrain, would any line areas pose difficulty in allowing line access, in the case of the Vivarail proposed methodology, should the diesel traction (if chosen) need replacing in case of a failure?

I know you have a permanent downer about these trains, but the route uses Class 153s now with interiors that are far from ideal for anyone doing the whole four hours or so. A 230 would have the significant advantage of nearly twice as much passenger space, allowing some combination of more seats and more comfort. I should imagine the diesel option is the only viable one for this length of journey, perhaps in a battery hybrid version if they develop one in future, and with a two car unit there's a spare engine to get you home (unlike the 153s). I can't see that trundling along at 45mph is any more onerous than their years of start-stop working with heavy loads and some severe gradients on the District Line.

 

[Tomos y Tanc]

I live within 5 minutes of a T1 stop and, as a concessionary pass holder, and despite the vehicles giving a harsh and uncomfortable ride and rattling non stop, I am extremely grateful for the service. The majority of passengers are, like myself, pass holders. There is no way we are going to pay to use the train.In my opinion, it will never happen.

Part of the reason for shifting the adminstration of concessionary passes from local councils to TfW was to extend options for card-holders on the rail network. You can already travel free on some TfW rail services using a concessionary pass and that's likely to increase once buses come under TfW regulation.

 

[talerddig]

Allegedly only as far as the outskirts of Llangurig village.
I only found about the 2 tunnel portals recently.

The LLanidloes & Newtown Railway, who had splashed out on an overlarge station in LLanidloes, which they were hoping to fund from running charges for the Mid Wales and Manchester & Milford Railways. The M&M , not having enough money to make a dent into Blaen Myherin and left with a (very expensive) couple of miles running to a tiny hamlet (Llangurig), refused to open the branch. So the stone train was chartered by the L&N and on its return, the L&N promptly said 'OK, you've run a train, now you're open. Rent for LLanidloes, please...' The skint M&M was now saddled with a debt that they could not repay and despite taking the L&N to parliament, were told that the contract was binding and they had to honour it. One of the reasons the M&M spent most of its life in Chancery.

Another snippet about this, the driver of this train was the only man ever to drive all the M&M metals and drove the last train before the GWR took it over. First and last...

 

[talerddig]

An interesting idea, but Newcastle Emlyn was a branch off the Aberystwyth-Carmarthen line, not part of the through route. If you wanted a phased re-opening, I guess the first stage would have to be one of Carmarthen-Pencader, Carmarthen-Lampeter, Aberystwyth-Llanfarian or Aberystwyth-Llanilar. All of these suffer from including one of the 'expensive bits' where a new route would be required. The old route has been built on at the Aberystwyth end, and at the Carmarthen end (south of Pencader) I expect the curvature of the former route would significantly lengthen journey times. If the train isn't faster than driving there is absolutely zero case for re-opening.

I'd start by upgrading Cardiff-Bridgend, and Carmarthen-Port Talbot (via the Swansea District Line), with a target Carmarthen-Cardiff journey time of no more than 70 minutes (I'd call it 'Project 70'). Then keep the waiting rooms at Aberystwyth and Carmarthen stations open from first to last bus/train, and put on faster (more-direct) buses between the two with enhanced legroom etc, connecting with the fast Cardiff-Carmarthen services. Then Bangor-Caernarfon with an hourly service initially but sufficient capacity for at least 2tph, with passive provison for extension further south to Porthmadog (using a new route between Bryncir and Porthmadog, rather than reopening via Afon Wen which would be slower, again there's no point building a railway if the car is faster, you might as well invest in buses instead) and/or Llanberris.

Why do you love Wales? If you build bigger roads, more cars will come to spoil Wales, and the climate.

You don't have to do that, the rubbish toilet-less bus from Aberystwyth doesn't go all the way to Cardiff, it terminates at Carmarthen and you have to change. So change onto a train (which will hopefully have a toilet and, if you're lucky, won't be a rubbish train (there are some rubbish trains on the Carmarthen line though)) at Carmarthen instead of going all the way on a bus.

Carmarthen and Aberystwyth are not 'two remote small market towns, socially and economically remote from each other'. In the context of our area, they are large towns, and the hourly bus service between them was the busiest TrawsCambria bus route.

Interesting question: how many cars does a class 158 need to take off the road to result in reduced greenhouse gas emmisions overall? Obviously, in rural areas the best solution would be to get pepole onto buses instead of driving, but buses are always slower than driving some that might not be achievable. Trains are much more likely to achieve modal shift.

There's no through demand on the Scotish border's railway is there? Maybe there would be if it ran all the way from Carlisle to Edinburgh, but it doesn't do that currently, yet sounds like it has been a huge success. The borders to Edinburgh sounds compareable to Aberystwyth and Lampeter to Cardiff to me, but I suppose Cardiff is not Edinburgh and Aberystwyth has alterative major centres (Shrewsbury and Birmingham) for passengers to head for, which may split the demand. Still, the Aberystwyth to Shrewsbury and Birmingham trains are doing well...

I don't know about the Dolgellau improvements, but the others all appear to be further destruction of the competivitiveness of public transport. Bypasses, I believe, make things very difficult for buses. A Bangor-Porthmadog railway would probably be more successful without Caernarfon and Porthmadog bypasses too, and the dual carriageway across Ynys Mon probably impacts the railway to Holyhead as well.

The main political drive for this project is not to connect Aber and Carmarthen. By restoring this line and the Afon Wen to Bangor, Wales has a north -south link without the need to cross the border and navigate the perimeter of the principality. Wales doesn't even have a direct road linking the two.

The Dolgellau road by-pass was built on the track bed and the station area

 

[edwin_m]

The population densities of north, mid and south Wales are all greater towards the east. So even if a link between Bangor and Carmarthen down the west side was just as quick as Chester to Newport on the east side, the existing route would still attract far more passengers with origins and destinations in Wales (unless severed for political reasons in some post-independence scenario). Not to mention that the existing route directly serves Chester and Shrewsbury, which are within England but the main local centre for nearby places in Wales.

 

[talerddig]

The population densities of north, mid and south Wales are all greater towards the east. So even if a link between Bangor and Carmarthen down the west side was just as quick as Chester to Newport on the east side, the existing route would still attract far more passengers with origins and destinations in Wales (unless severed for political reasons in some post-independence scenario). Not to mention that the existing route directly serves Chester and Shrewsbury, which are within England but the main local centre for nearby places in Wales.

I think you miss the point of my post, the political drive is to have connections within Wales not to go via England. And the East side is no help if you want to go from Cardiff to Bangor, which is probably the main populated northern city after Wrexham/Deeside

 

[HSTEd]

The main political drive for this project is not to connect Aber and Carmarthen. By restoring this line and the Afon Wen to Bangor, Wales has a north -south link without the need to cross the border and navigate the perimeter of the principality. Wales doesn't even have a direct road linking the two.

Google suggests holyhead to cardiff via the A470 which certainly doesn't take you into England.

 

[quantinghome]

The main political drive for this project is not to connect Aber and Carmarthen. By restoring this line and the Afon Wen to Bangor, Wales has a north -south link without the need to cross the border and navigate the perimeter of the principality. Wales doesn't even have a direct road linking the two.

Even if those links were to be restored, I can't see how it would possibly be competitive time-wise against the current route via Shrewsbury. Current journey times just for the currently operational sections of a putative Bangor-Aberystwyth-Carmarthen-Cardiff line (i.e. Afon Wen - Dovey Jn, Dovey Jn - Aber, Carmarthen - Cardiff) come in at about 4 hours. You'd be looking at an additional 1.5 hours for the links you mention. To make it competitive you'd then need to look at speeding up the journey by 1.5 hours. That would require major new infrastructure along the line e.g. a bridge over the estuary at Aberdovey.

Surely it would be far better to spend those billions on upgrading the existing route to give a better journey time?

 

[Llanigraham]

Surely it would be far better to spend those billions on upgrading the existing route to give a better journey time?

Of course it would, and members of Plaid locally have been saying this to the leadership and showing them why this proposal is in cloud cuckoo land.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Since Wales is still to be part of the area of this country when it leaves the EC, why is there a need for a Welsh rail transportation link that does not enter England?

 

[option]

I think you miss the point of my post, the political drive is to have connections within Wales not to go via England. And the East side is no help if you want to go from Cardiff to Bangor, which is probably the main populated northern city after Wrexham/Deeside

If they wan't to play politics, then they are free to go away & play politics, with their own money.


Even if Carmarthen to Aberystwyth was re-opened, you still wouldn't be able to do Bangor-Cardiff, as there's no track south of Bangor until you get to Criccieth.

Re-opening the line through Caernarfon would have a greater economic impact, & be much cheaper.

 

[talerddig]

Calm down, don't shoot the messenger. I think if you check my earlier post, I included the AfonWen to Bangor section in this, that's my take on it from looking at what's been said.

 

[duffield]

Since Wales is still to be part of the area of this country when it leaves the EC, why is there a need for a Welsh rail transportation link that does not enter England?

Fully devolved Welsh control of the route seen as important even without Welsh independence.

 

[talerddig]

Even if those links were to be restored, I can't see how it would possibly be competitive time-wise against the current route via Shrewsbury. Current journey times just for the currently operational sections of a putative Bangor-Aberystwyth-Carmarthen-Cardiff line (i.e. Afon Wen - Dovey Jn, Dovey Jn - Aber, Carmarthen - Cardiff) come in at about 4 hours. You'd be looking at an additional 1.5 hours for the links you mention. To make it competitive you'd then need to look at speeding up the journey by 1.5 hours. That would require major new infrastructure along the line e.g. a bridge over the estuary at Aberdovey.

Surely it would be far better to spend those billions on upgrading the existing route to give a better journey time?

Yup, great for the East and English Marches, let the West coast rot. They would have to speed things up - surely that would be with trains N-S only stopping at major stations.

A spur at Dyfi Junction would be cheaper than a bridge, just observing what has been said on this matter by politicians, THERE IS NO DIRECT LINK BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH COMPLETELY WITHIN WALES.

 

[talerddig]

Fully devolved Welsh control of the route seen as important even without Welsh independence.

My point precisely. Thank you

 

[talerddig]

Google suggests holyhead to cardiff via the A470 which certainly doesn't take you into England.

Interesting thought on a rail forum

 

[HSTEd]

Interesting thought on a rail forum

Well you brought it up when you claimed there wasn't even a direct road that didn't go via England.

The fact remains for the cost of a "wholly welsh" route you could perform enough upgrades on the existing route to slash the journey time.
Hell you could probably have high speed tilting trains on the Welsh Marches Line or the Heart of Wales Line for less money......

The economic reality is that Wales might as well be two entities that are only slightly connected.
Holyhead is far more closely coupled to Liverpool than it is to Cardiff, and it would cost hilarious sums of money to come anything close to overturning that.