Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?

[jagardner1984]

I don’t think anyone wants an Orwellian nightmare, but I think there is a concerted effort on the uniformity of messaging. Whilst there are undoubtedly some, probably a reasonable percentage who could get to work on foot or cycle, work alone or could work truly socially Distanced and would be thoughtful and responsible in their actions, there are a tiny minority of people who still think it’s ok to drive their campervan to the Highlands, have a barbecue in the park or hold a house party. It’s a minority of morons who will mean the impositions on the civil liberties of the rest of us will go on for much longer. Personally, as someone who lives alone and mostly works alone, I’d be very prepared to accept some state monitoring of my movements (via App or tag or whatever) to allow me to proceed with life in a more normal manner, with regular cleaning etc, whilst protecting the people around me.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think quite a lot of us would accept it temporarily - the key is how we ensure it's not permanent.

 

[Western Lord]

It depends on the case. I can imagine that there are some free houses where it would be better to start getting in some reduced revenue, rather than nothing.

For cinemas, I should imagine running costs are similar whether you have five or five hundred people in there, so as long as they can make enough to cover their overheads, opening might be better.

Commercial landowners will need to rreduce rents if they want to see any income from their assets as well.

Cinemas rely hugely on what are known as ancilliary sales, i.e. buckets of popcorn and coke. A huge chunk of the box office revenue goes to the film distributor. Fewer customers means lower ancilliary sales, so very difficult to make money on reduced capacity.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Cinemas rely hugely on what are known as ancilliary sales, i.e. buckets of popcorn and coke. A huge chunk of the box office revenue goes to the film distributor. Fewer customers means lower ancilliary sales, so very difficult to make money on reduced capacity.

But cinemas do still operate at times when things are quiet (my retired Dad likes going for midweek matinee performances and he says it's usually fewer than 10 people there, yet it is clearly still worth their while to open). With a lot of people off work, more will be able to go at what are presently off-peak times, leading to the demand being more spread out. If you use pricing to assist that it'll be even more pronounced.

 

[squizzler]

Should the government suppress rail and coach travel whilst lifting no-travel advise for motorists, it will lead to an explosion of hitch-hiking, not just of the thumb-a-lift variety but also driver/rider matching agents such as blablacar. Better for personal safety all round that the public use the professional services than ride in stranges' cars, IMO.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Should the government suppress rail and coach travel whilst lifting no-travel advise for motorists is that it will lead to an explosion of hitch-hiking, not just of the thumb-a-lift variety but also driver/rider matching agents such as blablacar. Better that the public use the professional services than ride in each other's cars, IMO.

If the Government modified PSVAR so that it applied to departures not vehicles (i.e. for any given departure time there must be an accessible vehicle on the route), it would be extremely easy to scale coach travel, if that helped? There are a load of coach companies who are in a very bad position, and a load of NatEx/Megabus/Flix work would be very useful for them indeed.

 

[bramling]

Better for personal safety all round that the public use the professional services than ride in each other's cars, IMO.

Depends how one looks at it. As I've said before, if I turn up and the train is full of furloughed families on their way to a beach with nothing contributory to do, I will be turning round and going home. Many of my colleagues will do likewise.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Depends how one looks at it. As I've said before, if I turn up and the train is full of furloughed families on their way to a beach with nothing contributory to do, I will be turning round and going home. Many of my colleagues will do likewise.

Then, bluntly, you'll be sacked, just like that VTWC guard who tried to refuse travel to someone she just happens not to like at Crewe. It is not within the remit of railway staff to decide who travels and who doesn't. It's the Government's decision when it "releases" people and when it makes public transport available to all.

By doing that, what you would be doing is conducting unofficial industrial action, and that is gross misconduct.

It would be possible, I suppose, for Unions to organise a proper official strike on the matter, but it is not one I would expect to receive any level of support or tolerance from Government or anyone else.

 

[jagardner1984]

I think quite a lot of us would accept it temporarily - the key is how we ensure it's not permanent.

Absolutely, time limited legislation with parliamentary approval every X months would seem a sensible limit on the power of the executive.

As for cinemas, accepting there are a handful of blockbusters each year, I struggle to see how the economics work, when (using my massively discounted monthly unlimited pass), I frequently sit in a 200 seat cinema with 2 or 3 people, all sailing past the £5 boxes of popcorn to get to their seats. I suspect the pubs and clubs may have a resurgence, as people will be so keen to socialise. The places where people are facing risk without a specific human interaction benefit (like cinemas, theatres etc) May struggle for longer.

 

[bramling]

Then, bluntly, you'll be sacked, just like that VTWC guard who tried to refuse travel to someone she just happens not to like at Crewe. It is not within the remit of railway staff to decide who travels and who doesn't. It's the Government's decision when it "releases" people and when it makes public transport available to all.

It won't get to that stage, as quite simply there won't be a situation where we get to that point. Like it or not, at the moment key workers in certain industries have quite a bit of sway.

Remember that at the moment there aren't enough staff to run things without a considerable amount of overtime, juggling and goodwill. If the latter is withdrawn then the job will quite simply stop.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It won't get to that stage, as quite simply there won't be a situation where we get to that point. Like it or not, at the moment key workers in certain industries have quite a bit of sway.

I don't think they do, really, at least not beyond the next month or two. There will be mass unemployment. If those currently in the jobs don't want them, others will take them instead.

The job market - all of it - is going to be an employer's market for a very, very long time.

 

[bramling]

I don't think they do, really, at least not beyond the next month or two. There will be mass unemployment. If those currently in the jobs don't want them, others will take them instead.

The job market - all of it - is going to be an employer's market for a very, very long time.

Yes I agree this will be the case in many industries, however not for something like the railway. We've no idea how long the shielded groups will be off for, and in some cases it's likely they won't be back at all. Some others are choosing to bring forward retirements as they don't want the hassle of all this (remember railway pensions are highly generous in many cases). Meanwhile there's little to no training going on, and when it does restart that will be a backlog.

Like it or not, those staff who are there at the moment need to be kept happy.

My place has been *very* close to not being able to run at times, due to vital staff not being available - this has only been avoided because some people (like me) have been prepared to alter timings or work overtime. Personally I've only worked overtime out of sheer goodwill as I don't normally do it. With social distancing and the like it will be vital for some time to be running as much as physically possible, which quite simply will need as many staff as possible. As you know, it's not a quick process to replace people in certain operational railway roles. It's not uncommon for training to last in the region of a year, and of course there's the need to find suitable people in the first place.

 

[Mathew S]

It won't get to that stage, as quite simply there won't be a situation where we get to that point. Like it or not, at the moment key workers in certain industries have quite a bit of sway.

Remember that at the moment there aren't enough staff to run things without a considerable amount of overtime, juggling and goodwill. If the latter is withdrawn then the job will quite simply stop.

I think you need to be careful what you wish for. Never moreso than now, public transport is being touted as an 'essential public service'. If many staff start behaving as you suggest, it suddenly becomes not only politically acceptable but widely seen as the right thing to do to ban industrial action in the public transport sector as is the case in other essential workplaces (e.g. police, armed forces, etc.). I'm not saying I would support that or agree with it, but for a Conservative government it's an open goal.

 

[Cowley]

I don't think they do, really, at least not beyond the next month or two. There will be mass unemployment. If those currently in the jobs don't want them, others will take them instead.

The job market - all of it - is going to be an employer's market for a very, very long time.

Yes I agree with that.
My stepson has a job in Tesco’s working in the bakery which he does when he’s not at college. They’re restructuring how they do things soon and offered him voluntarily redundancy including a generous £2000 (generous because he’s only been there a year), or he can transfer to a different section in the store.
I think (and he seems to feel the same way) that he’d be better off transferring rather than taking the payout and finding himself looking for a new job in a few months time when there’ll potentially be hundreds of people applying for reasonably secure jobs such as the one he could be doing.

If he didn’t manage to find a job for three months because of the competition it would wipe out the £2000 anyway.

 

[bramling]

I think you need to be careful what you wish for. Never moreso than now, public transport is being touted as an 'essential public service'. If many staff start behaving as you suggest, it suddenly becomes not only politically acceptable but widely seen as the right thing to do to ban industrial action in the public transport sector as is the case in other essential workplaces (e.g. police, armed forces, etc.). I'm not saying I would support that or agree with it, but for a Conservative government it's an open goal.

It doesn't have to be industrial action. Quite simply, it would be a case of "hi mate, any chance you could do early shift tomorrow as we have no one?", followed by a simple no. Or just having the phone switched off in the first place.

There just aren't enough staff around at the moment to be alienating those who are working.

 

[PG]

[...]there are a tiny minority of people who still think it’s ok to drive their campervan to the Highlands, have a barbecue in the park or hold a house party. It’s a minority of morons who will mean the impositions on the civil liberties of the rest of us will go on for much longer.

Human nature - otherwise why are many parts of our society set up in a certain way? e.g. ticket barriers, shop checkouts, nightclub bouncers, police forces etc.

The majority respect others and their property but a minority don't hence why things are set up how they are.

I haven't been aware of the majority being hugely upset by this pre-Covid19 so ergo it appears that they accepted the need for these restrictions on their lives.

Covid-19 means a few more restrictions than we have previously been used to and they may go on for some considerable time.

 

[yorksrob]

Depends how one looks at it. As I've said before, if I turn up and the train is full of furloughed families on their way to a beach with nothing contributory to do, I will be turning round and going home. Many of my colleagues will do likewise.

The penny hasn't dropped yet, I see.

Going places is contributory. It's what a large proportion of the economy is based on.

 

[bramling]

The penny hasn't dropped yet, I see.

Going places is contributory. It's what a large proportion of the economy is based on.

The penny doesn’t seem to have dropped with many people that there’s a pecking order of priorities, and certain things are lower on that list than others.

Especially when we have a scarce supply of something (public transport) then it will be necessary to make choices about who needs it most.

I’m sure that those sitting at home see their day out as increasingly important, and to a small extent I can see where they’re coming from, but those who are as we speak keeping things running in challenging circumstances see things from a rather different perspective.

 

[yorksrob]

The penny doesn’t seem to have dropped with many people that there’s a pecking order of priorities, and certain things are lower on that list than others.

Especially when we have a scarce supply of something (public transport) then it will be necessary to make choices about who needs it most.

I’m sure that those sitting at home see their day out as increasingly important, and to a small extent I can see where they’re coming from, but those who are as we speak keeping things running in challenging circumstances see things from a rather different perspective.

It's not just people sitting at home though. It's increasingly the businesses that depend on those people travelling. They might be behind in the pecking order, but they are still there.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The penny doesn’t seem to have dropped with many people that there’s a pecking order of priorities, and certain things are lower on that list than others.

Especially when we have a scarce supply of something (public transport) then it will be necessary to make choices about who needs it most.

Quite possibly, such as by going for compulsory reservations and keeping some quotas back for such people, this is how India deals with the massive oversubscription of its train services.

However, that's not what your original post said. Your original post strongly implied you would refuse to drive/guard (sorry, I don't know which you are) a train which was clearly full of bucket and spade tourists or daytrippers, which is quite different from saying that certain segments of society should be prioritised.

 

[Bantamzen]

The penny doesn’t seem to have dropped with many people that there’s a pecking order of priorities, and certain things are lower on that list than others.

Especially when we have a scarce supply of something (public transport) then it will be necessary to make choices about who needs it most.

I’m sure that those sitting at home see their day out as increasingly important, and to a small extent I can see where they’re coming from, but those who are as we speak keeping things running in challenging circumstances see things from a rather different perspective.

The economy is very high up on that list. And when, not if, the lockdown is seen to be doing more damage than the economy can stand, things will start to change. You see people working & paying taxes, & people spending in the retail & leisure sectors and paying taxes pays for the NHS. The government is already having to borrow far more than it ever planned, but so are many governments around the world, so borrowing is going to become more difficult as there is a finite amount of cash to go around globally. Which means an extended lock-down, or extended distancing measures that make large parts of the economy unviable, including public transport then the Treasury will start to run out of money very quickly. And when that does, how do you suppose key services will be funded? Short answer, they won't.

It doesn't matter whether people think this is right or wrong, its just the reality in a capitalist based economy. My greatest fear right not is not the virus, but the consequences of people hiding behind government decisions in the hope they will always keep them safe. They won't.

 

[bramling]

Quite possibly, such as by going for compulsory reservations and keeping some quotas back for such people, this is how India deals with the massive oversubscription of its train services.

However, that's not what your original post said. Your original post strongly implied you would refuse to drive/guard (sorry, I don't know which you are) a train which was clearly full of bucket and spade tourists or daytrippers, which is quite different from saying that certain segments of society should be prioritised.

I didn’t say I would refuse to drive or guard a train (neither of those is my job), however I said I would refuse to travel to work by train if there’s inadequate distancing. Quite simply I’d work to rule, which in the current situation would be extremely problematic as we’re relying on people adjusting their shift days and times to cover for those who aren’t available. None of certain staff, and we can’t run, simple as, and there’s no source of replacements beyond what we have available now.

There’s no way they can do compulsory reservations for suburban services.

It’s enough of a problem for long-distance ones - someone else made the very valid point that many of these are used for commuting journeys (eg Stoke to Manchester, Durham to Newcastle, Coventry to Birmingham, Derby to Birmingham etc etc) - although this might be mitigated due to the length of some of these trains.

Utterly out of the question for something like London Underground, where even now there’s issue with crowding at certain times and places.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I didn’t say I would refuse to drive or guard a train (neither of those is my job), however I said I would refuse to travel to work by train if there’s inadequate distancing.

Which has little to do with who's on board (as your previous post mentioned), merely that the spacing of those people is adequate.

 

[jagardner1984]

My greatest fear right not is not the virus, but the consequences of people hiding behind government decisions in the hope they will always keep them safe. They won't

Absolutely correct. The difficulty is the simplicity of some people’s thinking / arguments “the lockdown was relaxed, my grandad caught it and now he’s dead, you politicians ....” without recognising that until a vaccine is widely completed, there is an inevitability about that, that wider public health measures won’t prevent specific individual cases, and that the economic impact on our children is absolutely staggering already. Those are all sides of the same argument it’s almost impossible to square.

Some form of enforceable tracking of people and their infection status and contacts, combined with repeated mass testing, will provide a route towards some economic activity resuming. Personally I’m far less worried by Matt Hancock knowing that I cycled from A to B to pick up some components for work once a week than I am by not seeing ageing relatives for a number of months / years.

 

[bramling]

Which has little to do with who's on board (as your previous post mentioned), merely that the spacing of those people is adequate.

Indeed, but if the train is full up with people off to the beach (or whatever) then there’s a much higher likelihood the spacing *won’t* be achieved.

Based on what I’m seeing outside with the number of bikes on the road, and hearing (not least on here!) how people are itching to get out, I think we can say with pretty good certainty that there will be bedlam for some time were the lockdown to be released in anything other than a highly phased manner. We already saw what happened at the honeypots and other places on that infamous weekend.

Good weather and people not at work (nor at school) is a sure combination for people wanting to get out and about.

 

[bramling]

It's not just people sitting at home though. It's increasingly the businesses that depend on those people travelling. They might be behind in the pecking order, but they are still there.

Those businesses will in many instances be able to take business from people travelling by car.

Indeed in some cases not having extra people arriving by public transport may offset the restrictions on capacity caused by social distancing.

Regardless of what happens with the lockdown, public transport capacity is going to be restricted for some time due to lack of staff. There’s very little that can be done about that under the current conditions.

 

[yorksrob]

Those businesses will in many instances be able to take business from people travelling by car.

Indeed in some cases not having extra people arriving by public transport may offset the restrictions on capacity caused by social distancing.

Regardless of what happens with the lockdown, public transport capacity is going to be restricted for some time due to lack of staff. There’s very little that can be done about that under the current conditions.

As others on here have pointed out, there will be plenty of people available to boost staff numbers. That will be the reality of it.

 

[bramling]

As others on here have pointed out, there will be plenty of people available to boost staff numbers. That will be the reality of it.

I'm afraid this is completely wide of the mark.

Firstly, training for many railway roles takes time as you must surely know; for certain roles we're talking about up to a year. Secondly, there's little to no training taking place at present due to social distancing, and when training does resume there's going to be a backlog just to maintain competency of present staff.

The only way we stand a chance of getting back even close to normal is when the shielded people return, at present no one knows when that's likely to be. Presumably the worst case is if they remain shielded until a vaccine appears.

There are certain roles for which you can't just take people off the street and have them up and running at the drop of a hat.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm afraid this is completely wide of the mark.

Firstly, training for many railway roles takes time as you must surely know; for certain roles we're talking about up to a year. Secondly, there's little to no training taking place at present due to social distancing, and when training does resume there's going to be a backlog just to maintain competency of present staff.

The only way we stand a chance of getting back even close to normal is when the shielded people return, at present no one knows when that's likely to be. Presumably the worst case is if they remain shielded until a vaccine appears.

There are certain roles for which you can't just take people off the street and have them up and running at the drop of a hat.

The longer the situation goes on, the more need there will be to start training again. Once a way has been established to undertake that training in a post lockdown situation, it will continue.

 

[Qwerty133]

I'm afraid this is completely wide of the mark.

Firstly, training for many railway roles takes time as you must surely know; for certain roles we're talking about up to a year. Secondly, there's little to no training taking place at present due to social distancing, and when training does resume there's going to be a backlog just to maintain competency of present staff.

The only way we stand a chance of getting back even close to normal is when the shielded people return, at present no one knows when that's likely to be. Presumably the worst case is if they remain shielded until a vaccine appears.

There are certain roles for which you can't just take people off the street and have them up and running at the drop of a hat.

The solutions for buses and trains will be different. On the trains it is likely that commuter traffic will be down permanently on most lines which means that spare coaches can be transferred to more tourist populated lines. It is also likely that pacers and other stock that was meant to be withdrawn could stay in service longer and some agreements to have a safety critical member of staff in each unit will be suspended to allow for longer formations. In the case of buses there is likely to be a significant number of drivers who were previously doing schools work, private hires or national express work that won't be needed for the foreseeable who could quite easily boost the number of drivers available to local bus companies for service work, in many cases where the need was there as early as tomorrow. Furthermore many schools services use double deckers which could make a return to frontline service outside of school traffic to allow for larger buses to be used on more services or extra services to operate.