2020 US Presidential Election

[Darandio]

Doing a bit of number crunching.... Based on the Associated Press predictions... 270 college votes needed to (just) win. With Arizona (marginal but being called for Biden), Biden appears to have 238 votes in the bag. If he can win Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan - which is plausible - that gives him another 32 votes, so exactly 270. Not exactly a comfortable win, and I don't know what the chances are of it getting screwed if - say - an electoral college voter doesn't show up or votes the wrong way. If Biden can also win one of Georgia or Pennsylvania (possible but not at all certain) or North Carolina (looking unlikely) then he's won comfortably.

That's a fairly good summary.

It's also got me wondering why some betting companies installed Trump as the favourite a few hours ago and have now started reverting back. They either saw him wrongly declare victory and jumped the gun which would be strange, or they have no idea of the process and in particular the postal voting situation. It's not like they haven't had time to swot up on it.

 

[bb21]

Oh yeah for sure. The big hope had been that this would be something of a scathing rebuke of the Republican party with the Presidency being lost by a strong Electoral College (and popular vote) showing, keeping (or increasing control of) the House and retaking the Senate.

As it stands Dems will probably keep the House, may still take the Presidency by a whisker (but will win the popular vote) but are very unlikely take Senate. So if I'm a Republican I'm thinking "our formula is still working pretty well actually". So America is stuck pretty much exactly where it was before the election and if anything the Republicans have no reason not to dig in even further. Expect their 2024 candidate to be far more Trumpian than it might seemed likely just a few weeks ago.

The damage is already done the last four years, even if Biden took it by storm.

I wouldn't rule out a younger version of Trump, ie. Trump Jr, hijacking the agenda of the Republican Party at 2024, possibly with Russian support. If anyone thought Trump were bad...

 

[ainsworth74]

The damage is already done the last four years, even if Biden took it by storm.

I wouldn't rule out a younger version of Trump, ie. Trump Jr, hijacking the agenda of the Republican Party at 2024, possibly with Russian support. If anyone thought Trump were bad...

You're not wrong! It might have gone someway to getting the Republican leadership to reassess and look at things perhaps a touch more pragmatically if they'd been handed a drubbing last night (but zero guarantees) but it's doubtful the base (who are the ones that vote in Primaries to pick the candidate) would have changed their minds any. Indeed they'd probably double down. As it is not only will the base not change their views but the leadership certainly won't either.

 

[telstarbox]

That's a fairly good summary.

It's also got me wondering why some betting companies installed Trump as the favourite a few hours ago and have now started reverting back. They either saw him wrongly declare victory and jumped the gun which would be strange, or they have no idea of the process and in particular the postal voting situation. It's not like they haven't had time to swot up on it.

None of that really matters to retail bookies (except Betfair as @Bald Rick explained). If lots of people bet on Biden before polling day then they were left massively exposed in the event of him winning. So they lowered the odds on Trump to encourage people to bet on him and cover some of that exposure.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Even if Biden does scrape a victory - I don't think it can be ignored that a huge portion of the US electorate saw what Trump has been upto for the last 4 years and decided "Yep, I want more of that". That I find particularly chilling.

In a way, I agree - Trump's behaviour has itself been chilling, and I worry that people can see that and vote for it. However, I also suspect he's getting a lot of support from people who actually don't like his behaviour, but are voting Republican because, ignoring the childish Trump outbursts and lies and suchlike, they like the more capitalist way the Republicans are steering the US in, and feel some of the attitudes of the Democrats are out of touch. this article describes the views of some Latinos in Texas who are swapping from Democrat to Republican, and is worth a read:

“Everyone here is born and raised a Democrat,” Ms. Gonzalez said. But her opinion of liberals — particularly young ones — had changed in the past four years. “It’s like, ‘Give me this, give me that,’ and they don’t want to work for it.”

<snip>

Some attendees pointed to the response of the Democratic nominee, Joseph R. Biden Jr., to rioting and looting during nationwide protests this year, or his support of transgender rights, as reasons they could not support him.

They also said they liked President Trump’s focus on business, and on providing people with equal opportunities for advancement. Many said they supported a moderate immigration platform — one that included a pathway to citizenship for DACA recipients and either citizenship or legal permanent-resident status for longtime undocumented immigrants.

But they said they felt some security on the border, near where they live, was in order.

 

[Roast Veg]

Seems likely that the Senate will swing the same way, whichever way that is. All down to postal votes in Georgia really.

This morning I assumed Trump had it in the bag, but if the postal turnout is as high as it seems then I think Biden has the edge.

 

[37424]

Should just be total number of votes cast mickey mouse system like our first past the post system. And then you get trump taking about wanting to stop the vote and lawyers trying rule some postal votes invalid what kind of democracy is that?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

It would be very on brand for 2020 for there to be a faithless elector at the Electoral College who swings it for Trump...

I can't imagine Sister Bliss voting for Trump Michigan is looking interesting.... 90% counted and 15k votes in it at the moment, and depends how the postal votes split.

As a spectacle, both frightening and captivating. I had a gut feeling Trump may squeak it and still too close to call!

 

[Bald Rick]

Odds firmly on Biden now. Trump is 7/2.

 

[ainsworth74]

Should just be total number of votes cast mickey mouse system like our first past the post system. And then you get trump taking about wanting to stop the vote and lawyers trying rule some postal votes invalid what kind of democracy is that?

As with so much of the issues the US faces it all boils down to a constitution that was designed way back in the late 1700s with the needs and considerations of that time and place and has become fixed in aspic. They nearly got rid of it in the early 70s but the attempt at a constitutional amendment died to filibusters in the Senate. No chance now of course. The Republicans would probably struggle to ever win the Presidency again if they moved to the popular vote deciding.

 

[nlogax]

This is the most fascinating and unnerving day of politics in as long as I can remember. The EU referendum and 2010 have nothing on this.

Regardless of the presidential decision this is going to result in a hundred different post mortems on the Democrat side. Polling and forecast models, candidates, advertising spend, overarching clarity of message, all of it. Their campaign has gone badly wrong and not getting their hands on the Senate will be a hard lesson.

 

[edwin_m]

As with so much of the issues the US faces it all boils down to a constitution that was designed way back in the late 1700s with the needs and considerations of that time and place and has become fixed in aspic. They nearly got rid of it in the early 70s but the attempt at a constitutional amendment died to filibusters in the Senate. No chance now of course. The Republicans would probably struggle to ever win the Presidency again if they moved to the popular vote deciding.

I think in fact the Republicans would have to change their offer to attract more public support as an alternative to never having power again. Two-party systems tend to 50:50 support in the long-term. At the moment the bias in the system means they can win with policies that are preferred only by a fairly small section of the population.

 

[JonasB]

Even if Biden does scrape a victory - I don't think it can be ignored that a huge portion of the US electorate saw what Trump has been upto for the last 4 years and decided "Yep, I want more of that". That I find particularly chilling.

That is chilling, but I saw a comment on 538 that puts it in another light "But, like, in any normal election year, if an incumbent president were fighting this hard for his seat, wouldn’t that be seen as a positive story for the challenger?"

 

[notlob.divad]

As with so much of the issues the US faces it all boils down to a constitution that was designed way back in the late 1700s with the needs and considerations of that time and place and has become fixed in aspic. They nearly got rid of it in the early 70s but the attempt at a constitutional amendment died to filibusters in the Senate. No chance now of course. The Republicans would probably struggle to ever win the Presidency again if they moved to the popular vote deciding.

I agree.

The electoral collage system is the height of absurdity. As an example:
DC 93% of the vote goes to Biden, 3 college seats all Blue, seems legit.
Montana 56.5% of the vote to Trump, 3 college seats all red, really?

Biden's 41% of the vote in Montana v's Trumps 5.6% are both meaningless.

Equally, the 33% of Callifornia who voted for Trump v's the 46% of Texas who voted for Biden who have zero representation at the electoral collage level.

At the very least the collage votes should be distributed 'proportionally' to the votes cast.

A FPTP system is bad enough, but when you in effect have 50 first past the post systems, feeding an overriding first past the post system, the inevitable inequalities within any voting system get magnified multiple times over.

 

[LittleAH]

This is the most fascinating and unnerving day of politics in as long as I can remember. The EU referendum and 2010 have nothing on this.

Regardless of the presidential decision this is going to result in a hundred different post mortems on the Democrat side. Polling and forecast models, candidates, advertising spend, overarching clarity of message, all of it. Their campaign has gone badly wrong and not getting their hands on the Senate will be a hard lesson.

But then again, Biden is the first candidate of POTUS to reach over 70 million votes, potentially 75 million. To achieve such numbers and not win, or barely win shows their is a massive issue with US politics, notably the electoral college. It needs reforming, as does FPTP in the UK.

 

[Bald Rick]

And odds on Trump racing back in. Some people will have been making a killing (financially) on this. Not me unfortunately!

 

[baz962]

As my son moved to the US at age six , I personally take a good interest over there. My son will be 19 this week and boy does he not like Trump. I thought I was getting the hang of this US voting. So you can have less votes , but win state's with more college votes attached. But then someone posted up thread about actual electoral college voter's possibly going the wrong direction or not turning up , so I'm lost again. Biden could squeak the 270 and still lose. Help.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The Republicans would probably struggle to ever win the Presidency again if they moved to the popular vote deciding.

I'm not so sure of that given how close they are to the Democrats in popular vote despite having a candidate as bad as Trump (He's currently on 48.2% of the vote, although that will probably drop a little once the remaining ballots are counted). Imagine how the Republicans would be performing if they'd had a candidate who didn't alienate a large number of traditional Republicans....

 

[Scotrail314209]

Michigan has just flipped over to blue with 94% of votes called, is this good?

 

[notlob.divad]

As my son moved to the US at age six , I personally take a good interest over there. My son will be 19 this week and boy does he not like Trump. I thought I was getting the hang of this US voting. So you can have less votes , but win state's with more college votes attached. But then someone posted up thread about actual electoral college voter's possibly going the wrong direction or not turning up , so I'm lost again. Biden could squeak the 270 and still lose. Help.

Just like FPTP in the UK, you can loose states by a small amount and win others by a large amount. Thus end up with more votes than your opponent, but loose the election to them because you do not have the seats (UK) college votes (USA). It is the most screwed up electoral system in the world, yet this is the country that loves to claim it exports democracy!!

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Michigan has just flipped over to blue with 94% of votes called, is this good?

Yes that's good. It means Biden has probably won both Michigan and Wisconsin, since he's slightly ahead in both states, with remaining uncounted votes mainly absentee ballots expected to strongly favour him. Barring an unexpected total disaster in the remaining votes in either Nevada or Arizona, that would be just enough for him to scrape through.

 

[baz962]

Just like FPTP in the UK, you can loose states by a small amount and win others by a large amount. Thus end up with more votes than your opponent, but loose the election to them because you do not have the seats (UK) college votes (USA). It is the most screwed up electoral system in the world, yet this is the country that loves to claim it exports democracy!!

Thanks. I understood that bit , but didn't know about the actual electoral college voter's. So I just found it on a us.gov site. What I didn't know was that there are people that actually vote and in theory should echo the vote for their state and some state's require them to by law , but if the particular state doesn't require it by law , they can vote the opposite way. Even more rubbish than I realised

 

[nlogax]

Michigan has just flipped over to blue with 94% of votes called, is this good?

Good for Biden and part of a trend over the last few hours. Mail-ins which are mainly Democrat are being counted after walk-ins which have been mainly Republican have been fully counted, and focused on large population centres. At least this element of the election was predicted correctly.

Proof of the pudding will be if Biden flips Pennsylvania. 1.4m mail-ins yet to be counted and Trump currently 600k+ in front. At this rate Biden may not even need PA. This is super super tense.

 

[notlob.divad]

Thanks. I understood that bit , but didn't know about the actual electoral college voter's. So I just found it on a us.gov site. What I didn't know was that there are people that actually vote and in theory should echo the vote for their state and some state's require them to by law , but if the particular state doesn't require it by law , they can vote the opposite way. Even more rubbish than I realised

Correct. It happens but is very very rare I think.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Nov 2020 ==

Good for Biden and part of a trend over the last few hours. Mail-ins which are mainly Democrat are being counted after walk-ins which have been mainly Republican have been fully counted, and focused on large population centres. At least this element of the election was predicted correctly.

Proof of the pudding will be if Biden flips Pennsylvania. 1.4m mail-ins yet to be counted and Trump currently 600k+ in front. At this rate Biden may not even need PA. This is super super tense.

My understanding is that in many US states Walk-Ins are cast electronically (sometimes with a paper backup) So can be declared much quicker than postal votes which need to be validated and then counted by hand/machine.

This disparity between Postal and Walk-In votes doesn't happen in the UK because everything is done on paper and then counted by hand so the postal votes just need validating after which the actual ballot is treated like any other.

 

[telstarbox]

And odds on Trump racing back in. Some people will have been making a killing (financially) on this. Not me unfortunately!

You haven't been tempted to cash out on yours?

 

[JonasB]

As my son moved to the US at age six , I personally take a good interest over there. My son will be 19 this week and boy does he not like Trump. I thought I was getting the hang of this US voting. So you can have less votes , but win state's with more college votes attached. But then someone posted up thread about actual electoral college voter's possibly going the wrong direction or not turning up , so I'm lost again. Biden could squeak the 270 and still lose. Help.

Actually, you can become president with only 22% of the votes if you win the right votes.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

It is an interesting question - how will the US government function with a Congress that supports the president but a senate that does not? We’ve just had four years of the opposite way around, and despite the Pelosi-Schumer approach to opposition, you can’t deny that Trump has rammed several policy changes through in his favour. Can Biden (if he wins) now do similar for the next four years?

 

[ABB125]

Actually, you can become president with only 22% of the votes if you win the right votes.

That video has definitely improved my understanding of the American system. However, it just felt a bit biased towards abolishing the electoral college system (admittedly I know next to nothing about this topic though!). What would be the outcome for the smaller (population) states if all votes were equal? I think the video sort of glossed over that, but as I said I haven't got a clue when it comes to American voting systems!
Also, it said that San Antonio was the 7th (or 8th) largest city; that surprises me slightly, as it's not a place that most people will have heard of. I'm only familiar with the name because one of my cousins lives there!

 

[Domh245]

That video has definitely improved my understanding of the American system. However, it just felt a bit biased towards abolishing the electoral college system (admittedly I know next to nothing about this topic though!). What would be the outcome for the smaller (population) states if all votes were equal? I think the video sort of glossed over that, but as I said I haven't got a clue when it comes to American voting systems!
Also, it said that San Antonio was the 7th (or 8th) largest city; that surprises me slightly, as it's not a place that most people will have heard of. I'm only familiar with the name because one of my cousins lives there!

It's a terrible voting system, so it's no surprise CGP Grey wants to abolish it. He's done a few more EC videos through the years since. The smaller states would lose their over-representation, whether that's fair or not depends on whether the current system favours your team or not! It's also dependant on your view on state v federal government. From an outsider POV at least, it seems like the states don't serve any real function for the system except to paint a lot of the country one colour despite a majority of citizens voting the other!

He addresses the section about city sizes in this video - he used the city limits as opposed to the metro areas (a bit like counting Manchester vs Greater Manchester)

 

[Mojo]

As with so much of the issues the US faces it all boils down to a constitution that was designed way back in the late 1700s with the needs and considerations of that time and place and has become fixed in aspic. They nearly got rid of it in the early 70s but the attempt at a constitutional amendment died to filibusters in the Senate. No chance now of course. The Republicans would probably struggle to ever win the Presidency again if they moved to the popular vote deciding.

The best chance of change is probably the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact rather than a constitutional change (subject of course to legal approval which would most likely go through the courts). Effectively, this is state level legislation that would mean the state would send electors for the winner of the popular vote nationwide, ignoring the vote in the state as a single unit. This would come into effect (again subject to legal challenges) in the event that legislation is passed in sufficient states that hold equal to or greater than 270 votes.

It is an interesting question - how will the US government function with a Congress that supports the president but a senate that does not?

Congress is Representatives plus Senate. A bit like how Parliament is Commons plus Lords. Did you mean House of Representatives instead of Congress?