Arriva Buses (including Greenline)

[A0]

All that I can say is that looking at the industry currently, there is proof that if the right people are in charge, buses can get decent use.
Arriva hasn't put anything really in and hasn't got much out. Centrebus has ran mostly tenders and accross their business, there isn't much of a growth mindset. Infact, most of the network is tendered and commercial sides not changed very much. From what I can see of Centrebus as well, they hardly put in a lot of money either so again, get little out.


I'm not saying that anyone else would do better but there is certainly potential to get more out of the network. Uno didn't need to be created and if the competitors were good enough, Uno wouldn't be as big as it is since the unis would have opted for others as the contractor for routes. That said, the unis there haven't been fair really either seemingly banning other operators from the grounds which could be a big difference between being viable and not.

I have to disagree with you on the Stagecoach comment. That is very much down to local management. Some local management with Stagecoach are dismal and have missed many, many commercial opportunities. I speak from experience with some Stagecoach management. The bosses tend to do very little unless they think they can gain mega bucks basically overnight. Minimal effort, maximum reward.

Just because the other operators said that they weren't looking for expansion into the area, that could be down to many reasons. There is no point in anyone starting up there when the network is so saturated by another company, the tickets wouldn't be value for money and don't forget, Arriva play silly sods when it comes to competition running buses all over the place just to try and make you give up the network so eventually, you could have paid up for a bus network and then Arriva take it all away from you by competing. Nowadays, Arriva don't care and so the market in these towns is very different and has been killed off by Arriva and their decisions on investment.

If someone was in there with the right attitude and it wasn't overseen by Arrivas silly head office, it wouldn't be half a bad. Arrivas management cause about 90% of the issues. Put the right people in the right places, listen to the passengers, put the work in to resolve the issues, you get rewards. Arrivas management have no accountability. They make decisions then hide away in their offices then don't come out until it's time to promote something. Until Arriva start listening to passengers and management are held accountable to the passengers, nothing will change.

Someone else would have done better with the right team and right investment. Sorry but they would.

The Herts and Bucks area has been difficult operating territory for over 50 years. London Country was hugely loss making and struggled more with that area than probably anywhere else.

London Country NW was sold to its management and within a couple of years was teetering on bankruptcy when bought out by Luton & District.

London Country NE was the last National Bus subsidiary to be sold and AJS only stepped in because nobody else wanted it. AJS struggled with it, Blazefield struggled with it, Arriva have struggled with it - sorry, you can't just say "it's poor management" - there have been far too many different managers for that to be a credible explanation. Independents have come and gone in the area over 40 years - Jubilee Coaches, Welwyn Hatfield Line, Bee Line Buzz (Harlow) all of whom have tried to build up networks and ultimately failed. A few independents have survived holding small numbers of routes over the years, most of these operators have disappeared as well (Seamarks, Buffalo, Smiths Buntingford, Reg's, Sampson's, Golden Boy) - and of those who've survived they've generally retreated into the private hire coach market.

I don't doubt in some areas Arriva have thrown away what could have been good operations, so have First. But I don't accept Herts / Bucks falls into that category. There are just too many other factors which don't support that argument.

I dont think First has that many if any basket cases left? they do seem to have turned a conner. First wouldn't be allowed Arriva's Colchester and Southend operations ( would say Go-ahead has a better chance) , since there in competition its also why Leicester is no go.

To be fair Arriva isn't a basket case over all, it has some good operations and with a bit of TLC could easily make good returns.

First would be allowed Colchester and Southend if no other operator expressed an interest. The precedent was set with the sale of Sovereign to Arriva - the Competition Authorities won't have a problem with a monopoly if other companies don't object.

 

[duncombec]

A batch more accounts were posted to Companies House yesterday, it seems, although some are still outstanding (including Kent & Surrey, Midlands, and Yorkshire Tiger). (As always, available via searching at https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/).

Headline figures:
Cymru: Profit 1m (down nearly half, increase in maintenance and staff costs, increase in depreciation costs following capital expenditure)
Durham County: Profit 1.8m (Down by more than half, reduction in turnover, driver strikes, and increase in costs)
North West: Loss 1.5m (loss halved, reduction in admin expenses)
Northumbria: Profit 2.1m (up, reduction in admin and increase in other operating income)
the Shires: Profit 2.4m (down a third, despite growth in revenue, increase commission payments, higher agency costs related to driver turnover and vacancies)
Yorkshire: Profit 2m (down by half, increased pension costs)

In all cases, I've just taken these from the "Review of Business" section on page 4 of the respective PDFs without further comment.

More accounts released on 12 April (London) and 18 May:
London North: Profit 5.6m (down by half, previous year was a one-off gain, consistent with prior years)
London South: Profit 9.3m (up from 7m, increase in turnover/cost savings)
Merseyside: Loss 1.79m (from 2018 profit of 1.98m, increase in cost base due to ramp-up of Arriva Click, but increase in net assets more than covers it)
Midlands: Profit 330k (negligible increase of 40k, increased revenue from decreased competition, operational cost reduction)
Yorkshire Tiger: Profit 142k (up from loss of 562k, lower cost of operations)

As per the above, these can be searched from the weblink in the quote (as a single link would be multiple lines long), and the source is the same in each case. It's also worth pointing out these are all for the financial year ending 31/12/19, thus before anything Covid. I should also point out these are the before tax figures (the post-tax figures are a few pages further down).
Unless I'm missing anything, Kent & Surrey and Midlands North are the only divisions still outstanding, plus Bus & Coach (the dealership arm, I think, as it started as Hughes DAF).

 

[overthewater]

First would be allowed Colchester and Southend if no other operator expressed an interest. The precedent was set with the sale of Sovereign to Arriva - the Competition Authorities won't have a problem with a monopoly if other companies don't object.

I think Go - Ahead would object.

 

[A0]

I think Go - Ahead would object.

They might on Colchester - not so sure about Southend.

 

[cnjb8]

I still think First should look at parts of Arriva and think we could add to the business, ie parts like Derby etc

Its anyone's guess who / what / when parts of the UK operations will be sold still.

Not this again. First have made it clear they will not be purchasing bus companies for the foreseeable future, end of discussion!

I think First have got enough basket cases in among their estate without adding to them by buying bits of Arriva.

Not sure why you think Derby of all places would be a good fit for First in any case ? It's not in close proximity to any of their other operations (Leicester, S Yorks or Potteries) ? More likely would be Arriva's Colchester and Southend operations, which would probably be a good fit with First Essex (formerly Eastern National) and possibly Arriva Yorkshire to go with First S Yorks / First West Yorks.

To be fair, First Midlands is spread out over quite a large area. Derby is also relatively close to Leicester just up the M1 and up the A6

 

[A0]

Not this again. First have made it clear they will not be purchasing bus companies for the foreseeable future, end of discussion!

To be fair, First Midlands is spread out over quite a large area. Derby is also relatively close to Leicester just up the M1 and up the A6

Yes but last time First had operations "local" to Leicester which they tried to run under a single management team it was Northampton..... and look how well that ended.

 

[MotCO]

Unless I'm missing anything, Kent & Surrey and Midlands North are the only divisions still outstanding, plus Bus & Coach (the dealership arm, I think, as it started as Hughes DAF).

Hasn't Arriva Bus & Coach closed down? Or are you talikng about release of annual accounts?

 

[MedwayValiant]

Independents have come and gone in the area over 40 years - Jubilee Coaches, Welwyn Hatfield Line, Bee Line Buzz (Harlow) all of whom have tried to build up networks and ultimately failed. A few independents have survived holding small numbers of routes over the years, most of these operators have disappeared as well (Seamarks, Buffalo, Smiths Buntingford, Reg's, Sampson's, Golden Boy) - and of those who've survived they've generally retreated into the private hire coach market.

Jubilee Coaches was an odd one. The company was best known for two things: vastly over-reaching itself in bidding for Hertfordshire contracts and handing most (all?) of them back within a couple of months, and the eccentric spelling on its destination blinds (Harpendon, Borhamwould, and 5th Hatfield).

Two other slightly eccentric operations in that area come at once to mind. Dodds of Troon was an established Scottish operator which stretched the definition of "outstation" to the limit with its South Mimms operation, but actually did a decent job on the 302 (Hatfield - Potters Bar) after London Country gave up that section of route. Roger Quentin (Welwyn Garden City) was a taxi operator during the week and a Mormon priest on Sundays, but also dabbled in buses for a while, using an unmarked stop by the back door of John Lewis and some kind of minibus with a manual door.


Colchester and Southend have never really fitted neatly into Arriva. Given that First aren't planing to buy anything in the immediate future, wouldn't Go Ahead (as Hedingham) be the mostly likely to have any interest in Colchester, and might Ensignbus be the most likely to have any interest in Southend?

 

[A0]

Jubilee Coaches was an odd one. The company was best known for two things: vastly over-reaching itself in bidding for Hertfordshire contracts and handing most (all?) of them back within a couple of months, and the eccentric spelling on its destination blinds (Harpendon, Borhamwould, and 5th Hatfield).

Two other slightly eccentric operations in that area come at once to mind. Dodds of Troon was an established Scottish operator which stretched the definition of "outstation" to the limit with its South Mimms operation, but actually did a decent job on the 302 (Hatfield - Potters Bar) after London Country gave up that section of route. Roger Quentin (Welwyn Garden City) was a taxi operator during the week and a Mormon priest on Sundays, but also dabbled in buses for a while, using an unmarked stop by the back door of John Lewis and some kind of minibus with a manual door.


Colchester and Southend have never really fitted neatly into Arriva. Given that First aren't planing to buy anything in the immediate future, wouldn't Go Ahead (as Hedingham) be the mostly likely to have any interest in Colchester, and might Ensignbus be the most likely to have any interest in Southend?

Nearly right - it was Welwyn Hatfield Line that had 5th Hatfield and IIRC Hitchen. I recall talking to one of their drivers who was one of the owners and he wasn't impressed with the company which produced them.

Roger Quentin marketed his operation as a "taxibus" - it was only a little vehicle he used, something like 8 seats. Don't think it lasted long.


Jubilee's older buses tended not to have destinations, it was the newer vehicles like the MCW Metroriders and Lynxes which did - they had an odd 'block' type font IIRC.

In terms of over-reaching themselves you could make a similar case against Sampson's. A long standing coach operator which then ran headlong into bus operation on London Transport and Herts Council contracts using a fleet of decrepit Fleetlines, Bristol REs and Nationals. Most of the vehicles ran until the Ministry of Transport visited at which point replacements were obtained - often still in WMPTE or GMPTE colours. I think they were stripped of their London Transport contracts and Herts scaled back theirs because Welwyn Hatfield Line started up.

First may not be "planning" to buy anything, but that's doesn't mean they won't buy something if the right opportunity presents itself.

Would Ensign want to extend their service operations?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

First may not be "planning" to buy anything, but that's doesn't mean they won't buy something if the right opportunity presents itself.

This was said so many times during the First period post 2012 that if someone comes along with the right money.....

The reality is that Arriva UK Bus is still seen as a core business. There will be the odd opportunity (I can think of a couple of ones) as a tactical divestment but not really. However, to save people the time and trouble of endless speculation, looking at the map and saying X would be a good fit for Y...

Arriva operation	Spurious purchaser	"Logic"
Colchester	First/Go Ahead	Would be a good fit for First Essex or Hedingham
Southend	First/Ensign	Would be a good fit for First Essex or Ensign who might wish to grow their business
Kent and Sussex	Go Ahead/Stagecoach	Go Ahead run into Tunbridge Wells with Metrobus and Brighton & Hove, whilst Stagecoach run into Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells from Hastings and Ashford
Wales	Stagecoach	Already share Chester and could be a way to develop their limited Wirral/Chester business
Manchester (NW)	First	Share the Arriva Bolton depot already and might want to add some more sites to bolster their Oldham operations

....and you can go on ad infinitum, and the logic is indisputable. A bit like the study into ley lines that showed not only were they aligned to important structures by and large but, by employing the same logic, they were also aligned with Woolworths stores

I think the sale of Arriva is going to be less interesting.

ps It's not aimed at you but we did have many similar speculative statements on First

 

[duncombec]

Hasn't Arriva Bus & Coach closed down? Or are you talikng about release of annual accounts?

I was talking about the release of accounts - as these are for the year ending 31/12/19, they would still have been at "full steam" at that point.

 

[MotCO]

This was said so many times during the First period post 2012 that if someone comes along with the right money.....

The reality is that Arriva UK Bus is still seen as a core business. There will be the odd opportunity (I can think of a couple of ones) as a tactical divestment but not really. However, to save people the time and trouble of endless speculation, looking at the map and saying X would be a good fit for Y...

Arriva operation	Spurious purchaser	"Logic"
Colchester	First/Go Ahead	Would be a good fit for First Essex or Hedingham
Southend	First/Ensign	Would be a good fit for First Essex or Ensign who might wish to grow their business
Kent and Sussex	Go Ahead/Stagecoach	Go Ahead run into Tunbridge Wells with Metrobus and Brighton & Hove, whilst Stagecoach run into Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells from Hastings and Ashford
Wales	Stagecoach	Already share Chester and could be a way to develop their limited Wirral/Chester business
Manchester (NW)	First	Share the Arriva Bolton depot already and might want to add some more sites to bolster their Oldham operations

....and you can go on ad infinitum, and the logic is indisputable. A bit like the study into ley lines that showed not only were they aligned to important structures by and large but, by employing the same logic, they were also aligned with Woolworths stores

I think the sale of Arriva is going to be less interesting.

ps It's not aimed at you but we did have many similar speculative statements on First

There are quite a few smaller independents in Kent who might want to be added to the mix - maybe smaller may be more receptive to matching resources to demand. I'm thinking of Chalkwell (who are already taking over some routes from Arriva) and Go-Coach, and maybe The Kings Ferry, backed by Nat Ex.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

There are quite a few smaller independents in Kent who might want to be added to the mix - maybe smaller may be more receptive to matching resources to demand. I'm thinking of Chalkwell (who are already taking over some routes from Arriva) and Go-Coach, and maybe The Kings Ferry, backed by Nat Ex.

They're not going to be buying Arriva Kent and Sussex. The odd route but no more.

 

[Cesarcollie]

The Herts and Bucks area has been difficult operating territory for over 50 years. London Country was hugely loss making and struggled more with that area than probably anywhere else.

London Country NW was sold to its management and within a couple of years was teetering on bankruptcy when bought out by Luton & District.

London Country NE was the last National Bus subsidiary to be sold and AJS only stepped in because nobody else wanted it. AJS struggled with it, Blazefield struggled with it, Arriva have struggled with it - sorry, you can't just say "it's poor management" - there have been far too many different managers for that to be a credible explanation. Independents have come and gone in the area over 40 years - Jubilee Coaches, Welwyn Hatfield Line, Bee Line Buzz (Harlow) all of whom have tried to build up networks and ultimately failed. A few independents have survived holding small numbers of routes over the years, most of these operators have disappeared as well (Seamarks, Buffalo, Smiths Buntingford, Reg's, Sampson's, Golden Boy) - and of those who've survived they've generally retreated into the private hire coach market.

I don't doubt in some areas Arriva have thrown away what could have been good operations, so have First. But I don't accept Herts / Bucks falls into that category. There are just too many other factors which don't support that argument.



First would be allowed Colchester and Southend if no other operator expressed an interest. The precedent was set with the sale of Sovereign to Arriva - the Competition Authorities won't have a problem with a monopoly if other companies don't object.

I think Go - Ahead would object.

In any event, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) would not base their decision purely on objections from other operators. They consider market share, the overall impact on the commercial and tendered markets - ultimately their view on whether the customer would be benefitted or disbenefitted.

 

[cnjb8]

Yes but last time First had operations "local" to Leicester which they tried to run under a single management team it was Northampton..... and look how well that ended.

Fair point, but Derby is a different environment to Northampton. Could work, but definitely won't happen anyways for the foreseeable.

Hasn't Arriva Bus & Coach closed down? Or are you talikng about release of annual accounts?

Yes it has been shut down. Van Hool have bought the former ABC site at Wellingborough to sell their coaches, but I'm not sure what Temsa are doing.

 

[daodao]

[TD]Manchester (NW)[/TD]
[TD]First[/TD]
[TD]Share the Arriva Bolton depot already and might want to add some more sites to bolster their Oldham operations[/TD]

Really? First have only recently divested from their previous Bolton operation by selling it to Rotala.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Really? First have only recently divested from their previous Bolton operation by selling it to Rotala.

No, not at all. I was exposing the silly nature of speculation at times. Hence my comment about logic and ley lines.

There may be the odd divestment or closure from Arriva in similar vein as Yorkshire Tiger, Sheerness or Cannock (and have my own ideas what might be vulnerable) but as we saw on the First thread, speculation was rife, overstated and often wrong.

 

[A0]

No, not at all. I was exposing the silly nature of speculation at times. Hence my comment about logic and ley lines.

There may be the odd divestment or closure from Arriva in similar vein as Yorkshire Tiger, Sheerness or Cannock (and have my own ideas what might be vulnerable) but as we saw on the First thread, speculation was rife, overstated and often wrong.

Which is where I was coming from in looking at Colchester and Southend - they are isolated from other Arriva operations so unless they are absolute money-spinners, which I doubt, they probably are more vulnerable than other larger blocks.

 

[Typhoon]

There are quite a few smaller independents in Kent who might want to be added to the mix - maybe smaller may be more receptive to matching resources to demand. I'm thinking of Chalkwell (who are already taking over some routes from Arriva) and Go-Coach, and maybe The Kings Ferry, backed by Nat Ex.

They're not going to be buying Arriva Kent and Sussex. The odd route but no more.

I may be wrong but suspect it will be a story of continued atrophy. The most likely scenario seems to be that Arriva will continue to drop routes on the periphery, just like they have been doing (the 333 to Faversham, the Sheppey routes, routes in Sevenoaks, the 228/9 to Crowborough) which others take up (with no money changing hands). The difficulty is that they are very much down to the core, I can't think of any Kent County Council (KCC) routes that they operate (367 is being surrendered, there may be some journeys on routes that might be subsidised and others may be able to correct me). Some of the less lucrative routes in the north west of Kent have already had their frequency reduced (and I suspect won't be returned to pre-pandemic frequencies). No company that has taken on the former Arriva routes have enhanced the frequencies, far from it.
Sittingbourne locals are now the obvious outliers, 3 vehicles would be needed, well within any independents grasp; possibly rural routes south of Dartford but that might affect the viability of Northfleet? There is the prospect of more business in the future as the Ebbsfleet Valley development proceeds but I suspect, this will be marginal just as it has been at Kings Hill. I can't think of any independents in Kent that I think have ambitions to be a major player.
As far as Stagecoach goes, there are several towns where the two companies operate but taking on routes there would involve stretching their operations well away from existing garages, something they have been reluctant to do. As to taking on Arriva garages (it would have to be Maidstone), I just can't see it.

I haven't mentioned Guildford as I don't know the area but it is a bit remote from the other operations.

 

[Robertj21a]

I may be wrong but suspect it will be a story of continued atrophy. The most likely scenario seems to be that Arriva will continue to drop routes on the periphery, just like they have been doing (the 333 to Faversham, the Sheppey routes, routes in Sevenoaks, the 228/9 to Crowborough) which others take up (with no money changing hands). The difficulty is that they are very much down to the core, I can't think of any KCC routes that they operate (367 is being surrendered, there may be some journeys on routes that might be subsidised and others may be able to correct me). Some of the less lucrative routes in the north west of Kent have already had their frequency reduced (and I suspect won't be returned to pre-pandemic frequencies). No company that has taken on the former Arriva routes have enhanced the frequencies, far from it.
Sittingbourne locals are now the obvious outliers, 3 vehicles would be needed, well within any independents grasp; possibly rural routes south of Dartford but that might affect the viability of Northfleet? There is the prospect of more business in the future as the Ebbsfleet Valley development proceeds but I suspect, this will be marginal just as it has been at Kings Hill. I can't think of any independents in Kent that I think have ambitions to be a major player.
As far as Stagecoach goes, there are several towns where the two companies operate but taking on routes there would involve stretching their operations well away from existing garages, something they have been reluctant to do. As to taking on Arriva garages (it would have to be Maidstone), I just can't see it.

I haven't mentioned Guildford as I don't know the area but it is a bit remote from the other operations.

Surely Guildford, and possibly Tunbridge Wells are susceptible due to their small size and likely difficulty in being profitable (I think we've said this before on this/similar thread)

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I may be wrong but suspect it will be a story of continued atrophy. The most likely scenario seems to be that Arriva will continue to drop routes on the periphery, just like they have been doing

Apologies - I didn't mean that Arriva would be selling routes. I think your take is spot on and it will be a continued drawing in of territory, as per Sheerness and Pwllheli where peripheral operations/routes are dropped.

Surely Guildford, and possibly Tunbridge Wells are susceptible due to their small size and likely difficulty in being profitable (I think we've said this before on this/similar thread)

Less convinced that Tunbridge Wells is under threat but perhaps a reduction to outstation status.

Guildford is an obvious candidate with its isolation and the inherent issues with cost base. In many respects, it parallels what First did to Midland Red West and you're now left with a pared-back, one depot operation. When Arriva was created, I think the former London & Country/West Surrey operation formed of Guildford, Woking (closed), Cranleigh (closed), Crawley (closed with operations taken on by Metrobus), Warnham (sold to Metrobus), and Merstham (closed).

Appreciate that @A0wen mentions the long running issues with the former London Country NE operations and much of that is true. However, Luton and District made a half decent fist of things in the area in the late 90s though far from perfect, and Metrobus have done well on taking on Crawley and developing it. Just don't think the Arriva approach works.

 

[MotCO]

They're not going to be buying Arriva Kent and Sussex. The odd route but no more.

I agree - I was not expecting one of these smaller companies to buy Arriva K&S, but to take on selected routes or group of routes near their existing operating territory.

Metrobus have done well on taking on Crawley and developing it. Just don't think the Arriva approach works.

How did Metrobus make such a success of Crawley when Arriva couldn't? Was it just lucky timing in that Airport routes were just starting to be popular when Arrive pulled out? Did Metrobus invest time and money in establishing what routes and frequencies were required? Did they enhance frequencies and market the network effectively?

Guildford is an obvious candidate with its isolation and the inherent issues with cost base

But who could take over Guildford? Safeguard is probably too small; Metrobus is too far away. Would Stagecoach take over completely?

 

[A0]

Appreciate that @A0wen mentions the long running issues with the former London Country NE operations and much of that is true. However, Luton and District made a half decent fist of things in the area in the late 90s though far from perfect, and Metrobus have done well on taking on Crawley and developing it. Just don't think the Arriva approach works.

Bit of a leap there - the only bit of the old London Country NE operations Luton & District (L&D) took was the part of Stevenage (something like 3/4s) which they took over from Sovereign. The rest of it was London Country NW (LCNW), which wasn't in the best financial state when L&D took it on.

We never saw L&D operating in St Albans, Hertford, Welwyn or Harlow (apart from a couple of routes which were either county council contracts or, in the case of St Albans the 321 running through it), so it's a bit of a stretch to say 'Luton & District's approach worked where Arriva's didn't / doesn't.

I suspect Luton & District's main benefit when it took over LCNW was the ability to consolidate things - so centralise the Head Office operations in Luton, more efficient operations for services which ran into their area from LCNW area e.g. 321 Watford - Luton could be operated partly from Luton, 500 Watford - Aylesbury operated partly from Aylesbury. In the Stevenage area they re-cast services and grew the Stevenage > Hitchin > Luton corridor, where for many years the services between Stevenage and Luton had been quite sparse, similarly improving links between Letchworth or Hitchin and Stevenage - many of which still exist. These kind of links hadn't happened in National Bus Company days because United Counties had been limited in what they were allowed to do in terms of operating into Stevenage.

 

[Typhoon]

Surely Guildford, and possibly Tunbridge Wells are susceptible due to their small size and likely difficulty in being profitable (I think we've said this before on this/similar thread)

Can't speak about Guildford (which is remote so vulnerable). Tunbridge Wells may not be profitable and Arriva may be willing to sell the operations but it needs a buyer. Metrobus is a possibility but, other than the Tonbridge-Tunbridge Wells axis (and the towns themselves), there is little in the area, the rural routes are largely in the hands of independents, Arriva would want to keep the Maidstone routes (well, the 7 at least, and probably the 6X). Metrobus could operate their Edenbridge routes from there; these seem to be slightly less frequent and require just 2 or 3 vehicles, possibly a vehicle for the 291 but no more - whenever I have traveled on the route passenger numbers increase the further west I went. I would have thought that what might happen is that Arriva give notice that they will withdraw, rather like they did on Sheppey, and hope someone takes the routes on.

Apologies - I didn't mean that Arriva would be selling routes. I think your take is spot on and it will be a continued drawing in of territory, as per Sheerness and Pwllheli where peripheral operations/routes are dropped.

Sorry, that wasn't aimed at you, there just seemed to be a theme of Arriva selling sections of its portfolio within posts. I'm not certain that there is much value in these routes, vehicles maybe. There does seem to be a general consensus that there is likely to be a 'conscious dismemberment' of unprofitable operations rather like we are seeing closures of low performing outlets in retail. What would be ironic if services were taken over by Autocar Bus and Coach Services!

 

[Surreyman]

But who could take over Guildford? Safeguard is probably too small; Metrobus is too far away. Would Stagecoach take over completely?

Much as I would like them to, I doubt if the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) would allow Stagecoach to takeover Guildford, of course the big issue is whether the Arriva - Guildford operation is profitable and if it is, what is the return on assets etc. The last company reports (loss-making)lump the the whole of Arriva South in together so without inside info, we have no way of knowing how individual depots/areas are performing.
As far as I an aware most of the Arriva- Guildford operation is 'commercial.' Route 18 and some evening services are supported by Surrey County Council. It is the White-Bus/Falcon/Compass group of independents who have taken over most of the tendered work in recent years, also Stagecoach taking market share with the University routes and the 715.
With all the speculation about 'who would buy' there has to be both a willing seller and a willing buyer. Much may depend on how things pan out in a 'post covid world' some areas may return to previous levels of demand, some may not, we will probably have to wait at least 12 months to find out.

 

[A0]

Much as I would like them to, I doubt if the CMA would allow Stagecoach to takeover Guildford, of course the big issue is whether the Arriva - Guildford operation is profitable and if it is, what is the return on assets etc. The last company reports (loss-making)lump the the whole of Arriva South in together so without inside info, we have no way of knowing how individual depots/areas are performing.
As far as I an aware most of the Arriva- Guildford operation is 'commercial.' Route 18 and some evening services are supported by Surrey C.C. It is the White-Bus/Falcon/Compass group of independents who have taken over most of the tendered work in recent years, also Stagecoach taking market share with the University routes and the 715.
With all the speculation about 'who would buy' there has to be both a willing seller and a willing buyer. Much may depend on how things pan out in a 'post covid world' some areas may return to previous levels of demand, some may not, we will probably have to wait at least 12 months to find out.

We've seen the Competition authorities take a view based on feedback from other operators (see the Sovereign sale to Arriva) particularly if other operators aren't forthcoming about their desire to operate in the area. So if Stagecoach were to put in a bid, expect it to go to the competition authorities, but don't bet just because it puts them in a monopoly position that it will get rejected.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Bit of a leap there - the only bit of the old London Country NE operations Luton & District (L&D) took was the part of Stevenage (something like 3/4s) which they took over from Sovereign. The rest of it was London Country NW (LCNW), which wasn't in the best financial state when L&D took it on.

We never saw L&D operating in St Albans, Hertford, Welwyn or Harlow (apart from a couple of routes which were either county council contracts or, in the case of St Albans the 321 running through it), so it's a bit of a stretch to say 'Luton & District's approach worked where Arriva's didn't / doesn't.

I suspect Luton & District's main benefit when it took over LCNW was the ability to consolidate things - so centralise the Head Office operations in Luton, more efficient operations for services which ran into their area from LCNW area e.g. 321 Watford - Luton could be operated partly from Luton, 500 Watford - Aylesbury operated partly from Aylesbury. In the Stevenage area they re-cast services and grew the Stevenage > Hitchin > Luton corridor, where for many years the services between Stevenage and Luton had been quite sparse, similarly improving links between Letchworth or Hitchin and Stevenage - many of which still exist. These kind of links hadn't happened in National Bus Company days because United Counties had been limited in what they were allowed to do in terms of operating into Stevenage.

No, you're quite right. It was poor phraseology on my part. I know you've mentioned LCNE and the difficult issues in the area and also the industrial relations legacy.

What I then meant was Luton and District in their area (which included some LCNE but other challenging spots from LCNW) made a decent fist of things. In the early Arriva days, there seemed like a plan for the Shires business but once it was subsumed to be Arriva Shires and Essex (ARSE), then it seemed to lose focus.

 

[markymark2000]

I think what is left in Guildford makes money since they cut the ABC network down quite quickly (down to just route A now) because passengers preferred Safeguard.

From what it seems, when in service, it's profitable. The issue seems to be with the depot costs and management costs. Does anyone know if Arriva charge royalties to the subsidiaries like Amazon and Google do from their tax havens, charging the local companies for using the brand and all that stuff which eventually makes it look like they make a lot less money than they do because it's all moved about).

 

[duncombec]

I may be wrong but suspect it will be a story of continued atrophy. The most likely scenario seems to be that Arriva will continue to drop routes on the periphery, just like they have been doing (the 333 to Faversham, the Sheppey routes, routes in Sevenoaks, the 228/9 to Crowborough) which others take up (with no money changing hands). The difficulty is that they are very much down to the core, I can't think of any Kent County Council (KCC) routes that they operate (367 is being surrendered, there may be some journeys on routes that might be subsidised and others may be able to correct me). Some of the less lucrative routes in the north west of Kent have already had their frequency reduced (and I suspect won't be returned to pre-pandemic frequencies). No company that has taken on the former Arriva routes have enhanced the frequencies, far from it.
Sittingbourne locals are now the obvious outliers, 3 vehicles would be needed, well within any independents grasp; possibly rural routes south of Dartford but that might affect the viability of Northfleet? There is the prospect of more business in the future as the Ebbsfleet Valley development proceeds but I suspect, this will be marginal just as it has been at Kings Hill. I can't think of any independents in Kent that I think have ambitions to be a major player.
As far as Stagecoach goes, there are several towns where the two companies operate but taking on routes there would involve stretching their operations well away from existing garages, something they have been reluctant to do. As to taking on Arriva garages (it would have to be Maidstone), I just can't see it.

Death by a thousands cuts does seem to be standard, in line with the comments on profitability posted upthread by @M803UYA . Not sure about KCC routes, aside from the Sunday 401, they seem to mainly Evening/Sunday tenders. They are more exposes to contracts in Medway, though, albeit not on major routes. Also worth noting the Fastrack routes at Northfleet and the X1/X2 to Kings Hill are, I believe, some form of tender (the current vehicles on Fasttrack were "borrowed" from elsewhere to meet seating requirements).
As far as reductions go, I believe there are some services from Northfleet that are still reduced "temporarily"; those in Maidstone were planned anyway for April 2020. Indeed, the 455 has been increased from 2 to 3 return journey this week (still down from ca. hourly offpeak).

Most current Kent independents seem fairly happy with their territory and know their limits. Most "expansion" has been on the back of tenders, and whilst there is nothing to say they wouldn't be interested in a route of two (who'd have picked Compass Bus for the 228/229?) I can't see any "purchases". Presumably Chalkwell could have put in an offer for Sheerness depot had they wished, but instead focussed on the specific routes being given up, on similar timetables, rather than promising the earth.

Less convinced that Tunbridge Wells is under threat but perhaps a reduction to outstation status.
[...]

The current (new) depot is up for lease, with the same company that sold the traditional depot, https://www.durlings.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Kingstanding-Way-10-11-TW.pdf. However, it has been up since November 2020 with seemingly no takers. There is, of course, no guarantee this isn't just speculative, or "see what happens and work it out if someone makes an offer".

Tunbridge Wells may not be profitable and Arriva may be willing to sell the operations but it needs a buyer. Metrobus is a possibility but, other than the Tonbridge-Tunbridge Wells axis (and the towns themselves), there is little in the area, the rural routes are largely in the hands of independents, Arriva would want to keep the Maidstone routes (well, the 7 at least, and probably the 6X). Metrobus could operate their Edenbridge routes from there; these seem to be slightly less frequent and require just 2 or 3 vehicles, possibly a vehicle for the 291 but no more - whenever I have traveled on the route passenger numbers increase the further west I went. I would have thought that what might happen is that Arriva give notice that they will withdraw, rather like they did on Sheppey, and hope someone takes the routes on.

I believe the 6X is a hospital contract, so whether they keep it or not is not entirely in their control! As with the LEZ swaps mentioned upthread, the last time it was renewed newer vehicles were 'borrowed' from elsewhere to comply with age-limits.

Much as I would like them to, I doubt if the CMA would allow Stagecoach to takeover Guildford, of course the big issue is whether the Arriva - Guildford operation is profitable and if it is, what is the return on assets etc. [...]

I think what is left in Guildford makes money since they cut the ABC network down quite quickly (down to just route A now) because passengers preferred Safeguard.
[...]

That rather over-simplifies the story of the ABC network. It was designed to look at some areas after the loss of right to operate through university grounds. This meant they were competing with Safeguard. Safeguard's passengers stuck with them, but also competed on the Bellfields Route (3, then B), which terminated conveniently near their new (larger) depot. As Arriva had annoyed the passengers with the swap to minibuses with no frequency increase passengers gave Safeguard a try. The C to Stoughton was only suspended in covid times and is yet to restart. The fact that Guildford is still operating reduced timetables and has recently had a delivery of even-older-than-old buses suggests it isn't suitably profitable.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

How did Metrobus make such a success of Crawley when Arriva couldn't? Was it just lucky timing in that Airport routes were just starting to be popular when Arrive pulled out? Did Metrobus invest time and money in establishing what routes and frequencies were required? Did they enhance frequencies and market the network effectively?



But who could take over Guildford? Safeguard is probably too small; Metrobus is too far away. Would Stagecoach take over completely?

I don't know what the success of Metrobus was in Crawley. Local management? Attention to detail? Investment? Certainly, the record of that part of Go-Ahead is consistently good.

As for who could acquire Guildford, should Arriva elect to sell, you'd think that there was sufficient competition locally to allow Stagecoach to buy, but you could also have Rotala relatively close by.