Russia invades Ukraine

[JamesT]

1520mm tracks continue through to Przemysl Glowny in Poland. There are change of gauge facilities there but it’s quicker to take everyone off the Ukrainian train there and transfer them to an EU train.

Standard gauge tracks from both Hungary and Slovakia continue to Chop in Ukraine, so standard gauge trains can evacuate civilians from Ukraine direct into Hungary and Slovakia. There are change of gauge facilities that allow through trains from the rest of Ukraine to the EU (and was used right up until Wednesday last week by a through Kyiv-Wien train), but as with the Polish example it’s quicker to make everyone change trains.

Some googling brings up people talking about direct trains where they do a bogie swap to facilitate the change of gauge.

 

[DarloRich]

A bit of context. Russia has four nuclear readiness states. Putin yesterday ordered an increase from the bottom one to the second from bottom. The US is at Defcon 3 and has been for a while. It was raised without a fuss. Putin just loves the theatre that goes with this.

As with Covid, there are always "experts" in the media who like to sow a bit of panic.

thanks - thats the context I couldn't find yesterday.

 

[mike57]

Looking ahead, I think even if Ukraine eventually falls to the Russian invasion the cost of this invasion to the Russians will become unacceptable, particularly if there is then an ongoing guerrilla war which could conceivably spill over the border into Russian territory, and eventually the Russians will look to disengage themselves.

On the basis that a legitimate government is re-installed/survives and the war is over I suspect the infrastructure will be pretty much destroyed. My rail related question is will Ukraine look to rebuild at standard gauge?

 

[najaB]

My rail related question is will Ukraine look to rebuild at standard gauge?

That depends on the level of destruction. If they are basically rebuilding from scratch then it would make sense to rebuild at standard gauge - both as a political statement (emphasising the separation from Russia) and as a practical matter: it would facilitate easier trade with the EU countries to the west and deny Russia use of the railways in any future conflicts.

My hope is, however, that Putin sees sense in the very near future and manages to find a way to end this before it gets to that stage.

 

[DarloRich]

I notice Russian stooge Lukashenko is said to be preparing to send his troops into Ukraine. Moronic.

Despite being no fan of the Tory boys I have to say the Minster of Defence (Ben Wallace) has come across in the media very well and has seemed calm and focussed during this crisis. he also doesn't see the need to have pointless photo shoots showing him doing something unlike several of his colleagues!

My hope is, however, that Putin sees sense in the very near future and manages to find a way to end this before it gets to that stage.

The only way out for him is to find a mechanism that allows him to save face. He has to be able to say that he has met his objectives, which he plainly hasn't. Yet.

 

[mike57]

My hope is, however, that Putin sees sense in the very near future and manages to find a way to end this before it gets to that stage.

I hope so to, but the evidence is not pointing that way. The only way I can see it ending in anything other than a long drawn out conflict if there is a change of leadership in Russia. The Russian business people who are going to suffer a loss of assetts and money may bring pressure which could lead to a change, but I think thats an unknown quantity. As for the influence of ordainary Russians, I suspect that is minimal.

 

[najaB]

The only way out for him is to find a mechanism that allows him to save face. He has to be able to say that he has met his objectives, which he plainly hasn't. Yet.

I could see a non-concession from the Ukrainian side as a potential way out (not that I believe there's even the slightest chance this will happen). Ukraine could commit to not seeking NATO membership for n years (n is a small number such as 5). The reason it's a non-concession is because there was next to zero chance that Ukraine would be eligible for EU or NATO membership for several years anyway. It would, however, give Putin the ability to spin this cluster-**** as a victory for his domestic audience.

 

[Simon11]

I hope so to, but the evidence is not pointing that way. The only way I can see it ending in anything other than a long drawn out conflict if there is a change of leadership in Russia. The Russian business people who are going to suffer a loss of assetts and money may bring pressure which could lead to a change, but I think thats an unknown quantity. As for the influence of ordainary Russians, I suspect that is minimal.

I am sure that Western nations have quite a few ears on the ground in the Kremlin/ Russia, so have a good idea of what is happening. Although it is never a good idea to remove a president as it would de-stablise a country, I wonder whether there could be a SAS/ special forces mission to remove Putin and allow Russia to re-set itself.

 

[Scotrail314209]

A delegation has arrived in Belarus for Peace talks with Russia.

US senator says Moscow’s plans are behind schedule – as it happened | World news | The Guardian

This blog is closed

amp.theguardian.com

Unfortunately there is no text to post as it’s just images.

 

[oldman]

There have been emergency passenger trains with UZ stock running on the broad gauge well into Poland to near Katowice, which is I believe basically unheard of.

Due to reach Olkusz this morning (Monday). A tented village has been created przeglad.olkuski.pl

Also a Polish hospital train is taking wounded to Warsaw. tvn24.pl

 

[Chingy]

Let me begin with an admission. So many times, I've thought: "Putin would never do this." Then he goes and does it.
"He'd never annex Crimea, surely?" He did.
"He'd never start a war in the Donbas." He did.
"He'd never launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine." He has.
I've concluded that the phrase "would never do" doesn't apply to Vladimir Putin.
And that raises an uncomfortable question:
"He'd never press the nuclear button first. Would he?"
It's not a theoretical question. Russia's leader has just put his country's nuclear forces on "special" alert, complaining of "aggressive statements" over Ukraine by Nato leaders.
Listen closely to what President Putin has been saying. Last Thursday when he announced on TV his "special military operation" (in reality, a full-scale invasion of Ukraine), he delivered a chilling warning:
"To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside - if you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history."
"Putin's words sound like a direct threat of nuclear war," believes Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dmitry Muratov, chief editor of the Novaya Gazeta newspaper.
"In that TV address, Putin wasn't acting like the master of the Kremlin, but the master of the planet; in the same way the owner of a flash car shows off by twirling his keyring round his finger, Putin was twirling the nuclear button. He's said many times: if there is no Russia, why do we need the planet? No one paid any attention. But this is a threat that if Russia isn't treated as he wants, then everything will be destroyed."

A sobering read on a BBC article, for anyone that wants an excuse for an early Whiskey!

Full article can be found here;

Ukraine invasion: Would Putin press the nuclear button?

"Would never do" isn't a phrase that applies to Vladimir Putin, the BBC's Steve Rosenberg believes.

www.bbc.co.uk

Essentially, the point raised suggests that if Russia can't have what it wants, then no one can. A planet without Russia is not worth having!

 

[brad465]

Yesterday I witnessed the demonstrations being held in Lisbon in front of the Russian Embassy.

I found it beautiful that all hatred was pointed towards Putin. No one was wishing malice towards the Russian.

What I found interesting was the fact that Ukrainians found it unacceptable for "Grândola, Vila Morena" to be sang.
I believe it's due to its strong connection to the Communist movement in Portugal?

Which, BTW, the Portuguese Communist Party was clearly absent from these demonstrations. Goes to show that Russia, even after the Soviet colapse, still has power projected outside of its borders!

Yes hopefully the Policing Bill Patel is trying to get through Parliament won't get in the way of future protests on this and other issues.

 

[mike57]

I am sure that Western nations have quite a few ears on the ground in the Kremlin/ Russia, so have a good idea of what is happening. Although it is never a good idea to remove a president as it would de-stablise a country, I wonder whether there could be a SAS/ special forces mission to remove Putin and allow Russia to re-set itself.

I dont think change coming from outside Russia will help, learning from history is that change has to come from within. I do think that we (NATO + others) have to take a very strong line, to ensure that the price paid for hanging onto Ukraine becomes unsupportable to the Russians. Sanctions, support of Ukrainian forces, training and hardware to guerrilla fighters. And no face saving getouts otherwise from a Russian point of view the war will have paid off, unless the Russians see and feel the futility of their actions nothing will change and Putin will be eyeing up the next country.

 

[DarloRich]

@Scotrail314209 just to add to the discussion yesterday about Putin and his suggested nuclear alert. These are the words of our Defence Secretary in reaction to that statement:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60553356

BBC:
Speaking to BBC Breakfast on Monday, Mr Wallace said he understood concerns over Mr Putin's order, revealing his own 12-year-old son had called him about it.
He said: "We don't see or recognise in the sort of phrase or the status he described as anything that is a change to what they have currently as their nuclear posture.
"This is predominantly about Putin putting it on the table just to remind people, remind the world, that he has a deterrent."
The defence secretary said that Britain was also a nuclear power and that its deterrent had "kept our security for decades".

 

[najaB]

Although it is never a good idea to remove a president as it would de-stablise a country, I wonder whether there could be a SAS/ special forces mission to remove Putin and allow Russia to re-set itself.

This is not an option. Under any circumstances. For one thing, as bad as the result of a successful mission would be just consider for a moment the impact if the operatives were killed/captured on Russian territory!

 

[Scotrail314209]

@Scotrail314209 just to add to the discussion yesterday about Putin and his suggested nuclear alert. These are the words of our Defence Secretary in reaction to that statement:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60553356

That adds a lot of calming context behind it. Twitter is currently ablaze with people talking about the inevitable nuclear armageddon.

On the subject of Twitter, people are currently speculating that the water bottles on the negotiation table may be poisoned and that the whole thing is a trap. I seriously doubt it's a trap considering they know what would happen to them if they poisoned the Ukrainian delegation.

 

[GS250]

Regarding his Nuclear threats, appears China aren't overly impressed either. They may well be seen as being complicit with the Russians, but the (remote) spectre of all out nuclear war would affect them massively too. Even if they aren't directly attacked the global physical fall out would pretty much make life miserable for them for several decades. It may well be that complicity adds them to the list of targets should the very worst happen. They have every reason to ensure they are involved diplomatically in these troubling times.

 

[adc82140]

That adds a lot of calming context behind it. Twitter is currently ablaze with people talking about the inevitable nuclear armageddon.

On the subject of Twitter, people are currently speculating that the water bottles on the negotiation table may be poisoned and that the whole thing is a trap. I seriously doubt it's a trap considering they know what would happen to them if they poisoned the Ukrainian delegation.

Putin has the Western population rattled. For him that's job done.

 

[AlterEgo]

On the basis that a legitimate government is re-installed/survives and the war is over I suspect the infrastructure will be pretty much destroyed.

Putin is unlikely to destroy Ukraine because he intends to govern it as a client state, surely.

 

[najaB]

Putin has the Western population rattled. For him that's job done.

I think rattling the West was a happy by-product. That message seemed to be mostly for domestic consumption.

Putin is unlikely to destroy Ukraine because he intends to govern it as a client state, surely.

By the same token, he probably expected to be in control of Kyiv by now.

 

[TheEdge]

Regarding his Nuclear threats, appears China aren't overly impressed either. They may well be seen as being complicit with the Russians, but the (remote) spectre of all out nuclear war would affect them massively too. Even if they aren't directly attacked the global physical fall out would pretty much make life miserable for them for several decades. It may well be that complicity adds them to the list of targets should the very worst happen. They have every reason to ensure they are involved diplomatically in these troubling times.

I think the fact China abstained from the Security Council vote and hasn't openly supported either side is the closest we'll see to them actually admonishing Russia, but I suspect that's how the feel.

Ignoring the fallout how much tat in your (and mine, and probably every other home in the UK, US, EU, Canada and Russia) has "Made in China" on it. I doubt they want to see the majority of their export market and by extension economy a smouldering crater.

 

[AlterEgo]

However I strongly disagree that this war has to do with the 'feelings' of an oldish empire[1] — even if a construct can have feelings — but everything to do with the personal disappointment felt by a one-time KGB officer who saw his world collapsing when the management of the Soviet Union lost its will to live. This disappointment seems to have morphed into a bitter personal resentment which grew worse as the years went by. The fact that Ukraine, once a key part of the USSR, broke away from the Russian Federation was an insult to everything Putin believed in.

Russia has claimed a "sphere of influence" in exactly the same way other imperial powers have done for over 150 years. The invasion and/or inclusion of Ukraine is imperialism whether that is motivated by a canny operator or a loser psychopath.

Putin ranted at length the other day about Russia's contemporary claim to areas included in the historic Russian Empire in the early 1920s. And yes, Putin is the embodiment of empire.

 

[Simon11]

I think rattling the West was a happy by-product. That message seemed to be mostly for domestic consumption.

I personally think the West has done just as much rattling for the general population in Russia, where they will be very worried for their future, will face huge financial losses and access to the West.

 

[AlterEgo]

By the same token, he probably expected to be in control of Kyiv by now.

Yes. But he did not seem to go for shock and awe. I believe he seriously underestimated the Ukrainians' resolve to stay and fight. Their holding of the line and buying time will prove invaluable in the future and will no doubt be seen as heroic. It is the right thing to do and yah boo sucks to anyone who can't understand the will of military aged men to stay and fight in their home country rather than running away. People have to stand for something and if you don't stand for your home you are nothing.

 

[scarby]

A sobering read on a BBC article, for anyone that wants an excuse for an early Whiskey!

Full article can be found here;

Ukraine invasion: Would Putin press the nuclear button?

"Would never do" isn't a phrase that applies to Vladimir Putin, the BBC's Steve Rosenberg believes.

www.bbc.co.uk

Essentially, the point raised suggests that if Russia can't have what it wants, then no one can. A planet without Russia is not worth having!

Don't forget how many 'experts' we have had over the past two years claiming what nightmare was going to happen with Covid or what could happen, and have been proved to be wrong. It was only in December that there was talk of "mega waves" of it over overwhelming hospitals and so on. A lot of opinions thrown out in the heat of the moment just don't seem to have much material value.

In that sense it was much better in 1979 when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan - all we had to go on was a sober 10 minute news item (if that) telling us that, well, there was a war on but we didn't know much more. 'Experts' weren't brought out every day to give their opinions to the BBC. The Soviet Head of State, Leonid Brezhnev, was in dreadful physical and mental shape, but we didn't have the media hanging on his every statement, partly because in his shape he was barely seen publicly and had speaking problems.

 

[Scotrail314209]

US senator says Moscow’s plans are behind schedule – as it happened

This blog is closed

www.theguardian.com

The EU is expecting Ukraine’s application to join the European Union “imminently” and officials in Brussels said “this will need to be assessed very rapidly by the council and the decision made as to whether to request an urgent opinion from the European commission”.

Earlier today, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy had made a video address in which he appealed to the European union for urgent accession to the 27-member bloc for the country under special procedures.

For Ukraine to become an EU member state it will go through a pre-accession period of varying length, during which the candidate country adapts its institutions, standards and infrastructure to enable it to meet its obligations as a member state.

Albania, the Republic of North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey are currently candidate countries.

Could this not cause an escalation if they are hastily accepted? Surely Russia would see it as such.

Although, I think the EU may deny the application based on the grounds they are in an active conflict, and accepting Ukraine will mean that the EU member states get drawn in.

 

[mike57]

Putin is unlikely to destroy Ukraine because he intends to govern it as a client state, surely.

Putin may not want to destroy Ukraine, but it looks like its taking more force than he bargained for to gain control, and I suspect that control may be illusory with an ongoing nasty and bitter guerrilla war, which will probably spread over the border into Russian territory. Put youself in the shoes of guerrilla forces after a Russian takeover, its much better to carry out your attacks on Russian soil if you can. Its a huge border and small groups of suitably motivated fighters will be able cross over undetected. Large numbers of Russian troops are deployed to try and maintain control whilst small groups pick them off a few at a time and move on never having a full blown 'stand up fight'. Moral amongst Russian troops will then take a nose dive as well. When this finally ends I suspect Ukraine will be in a bad way. Probably not what Putin had in mind, but the likely reality.

 

[Strathclyder]

That adds a lot of calming context behind it. Twitter is currently ablaze with people talking about the inevitable nuclear armageddon.

Which is precisely why one should avoid Twitter and other such social media sites when it comes to this. All too easy to get yourself caught up in such hysteria, which is precisely what Putin is and has been banking on, either as a direct or secondary effect. Try to keep yourself as calm as much as possible and look at these statements in the wider context (@DarloRich has repeatedly done this better than I could ever hope to in his posts here).

I think rattling the West was a happy by-product. That message seemed to be mostly for domestic consumption.

Though a sizeable portion of the Russian population looked at what they were being fed here and point-blank refused to consume it. Not like that matters too much to Putin personally of course - he can and has had the protesters brutally arrested - but some Russians saw right through Putin's BS 'pretext' for this cluster-****.

I notice Russian stooge Lukashenko is said to be preparing to send his troops into Ukraine. Moronic.

I'd replace the word stooge with a certain word beginning with W and ending with E. Calling him a stooge, puppet etc, is just tip-toeing around what he is and what he's always been when it comes to Putin's Russia.

But yes, if this turns out to be true, then it's just another demonstration of Lukashenko's total and complete ineptitude as a 'leader'. The man is truly beneath contempt. If Putin doesn't get run out of the Kremlin on a rail by his people, I truly hope Lukashenko has the equivalent happen to him in the not-too-distant future. Couldn't happen to a more deserving scumbag.

But I ain't naive: I know it's patently obvious Putin is the main reason Lukashenko is still where is he is (and not where he should be: rotting in prison).

 

[squizzler]

I hear the Russians are still supplying oil and gas to the EU. By contrast, here in Jersey last year we faced threats to lose our electricity interconnector from the EU over fishing rights.

So whatever Putin's bluster, he has yet to do when the French minister for fisheries of the time was threatening to do to us. If they are not able to stomach loss of gas sales to the EU, any talk of atomic war is frankly for the birds.

By contrast, our financial warfare seems to be working very well indeed. I hope there is more of it. It is important as others have said that financial war is not only to the detriment of the suffering Russian people. We can still do more to target the "high net worth individuals" connected to the regime. And it seems that the residents of Britain's most exclusive housing estates are starting to ask inconvenient questions of just how their neighbours made their money (see below).

I for one actually welcome an all-out finanical war, and the wider it spreads the better. The current system of free cross-border movement of money that is opaque is a modern evil we would do better without. Hopefully the outcome will be something akin to Bretton Woods financial system to be recreated which limits how money could be moved between countries.

Tensions rise at the £3bn Surrey estate Russian oligarchs call home​

he warning to rich Russians linked to Putin that the UK government “will come after you” and ensure oligarchs have “nowhere to hide” is likely to hit hard at the gated luxury housing estate in Surrey dubbed “Britain’s Beverly Hills”.
Russians and those from former Soviet states own more than a quarter of the 430 luxurious homes in St George’s Hill, a heavily guarded 964-acre estate near Weybridge, Surrey, where mansions have changed hands for more than £20m each.

 

[nw1]

Yes hopefully the Policing Bill Patel is trying to get through Parliament won't get in the way of future protests on this and other issues.

A good thing for the government to do right now is to sack Patel to show that there is zero tolerance of those who apparently want to limit protest.