Boris Johnson should look for an honourable exit
Last night’s revolt makes the PM’s position unsustainable — he must spare his party and the country further agonies
William Hague
Monday June 06 2022, 10.00pm, The Times
There are two types of rebellions against party leaderships. One is the work of an organised faction or rival candidate for leader, launching a bid to dislodge the incumbent at a time of their choosing. When Michael Heseltine moved against Margaret Thatcher in 1990 it was a rebellion of this kind, as was the attempt by hardline Brexiteers to dislodge Theresa May in 2018.
The other type is more disparate, less organised but more spontaneous: a wider loss of faith that eventually brings on a crisis, but at a time no single individual or grouping chose. The only parallel in recent Conservative Party history is the toppling of Iain Duncan Smith in 2003.
The calling of a
confidence vote in Boris Johnson obviously falls intothe latter category. Any rival candidate would not have chosen now to bring it on, since there is every reason to expect that the prime minister would be in a weaker position in the foreseeable future. There is no single policy that has turned much of his party against him, as the poll tax did in the case of Thatcher or a softer Brexit under May.
Instead, the most striking aspect of this revolt has been the varied, almost random, nature of the MPs involved: right, left, centre, keen Brexiteers, moderate One Nation types, hardened old-timers and even some ambitious young thrusters.
It is clear that a fair number of MPs on the ministerial “payroll” joined this rebellion in the privacy of the polling booth. Their reasons for doing so will have matched the stated concerns of those who went public: a seemingly irreparable loss of trust in Johnson among the wider electorate and despair at the lack of grip on the future direction of policy. When a respected MP such as Jesse Norman writes a letter attacking “a culture of casual law-breaking at No 10”, saying “current policy priorities are deeply questionable” and that “the government seems to lack a sense of mission”, it is clear that the disaffection within the party is deep and anguished.
Speaking to a selection of Tory MPs in recent days, I have detected none of the excitement and ferment that accompanies a planned and organised attempt at a coup. Instead, there has been anguish about what to do, a sense of tragedy about a gifted leader displaying such grievous flaws, a deep worry about how their party can coalesce after such a loss of confidence, a concern to do the right thing for party and country. Those planning to vote against Boris Johnson were conscious that he had a huge democratic mandate from the last general election and is a unique personality and leader, yet they had all come quietly, privately and separately to the conclusion that he nevertheless had to go.
This uncoordinated and tormented reaching of dozens of decisions, fortified by the forthright views of many of their constituents after the Sue Gray report, has now resulted in more than 40 per cent of Tory MPs voting that they have no confidence in the party leadership.
The nature of their revolt has an important bearing on what happens next. They are not a faction that has been seen off, or an alternative policy direction that has been defeated. They represent instead a widespread feeling, a collapse of faith, that almost certainly cannot be repaired or reversed. For Johnson, continuing to lead the party after such a revolt will prove to be unsustainable.
Any leader who wins a vote on their leadership has that moment of relief that they have technically survived and the instant conviction that they have lived to fight another day. A win is a win, a small margin in a hard fight is surely enough. That is true of being elected an MP, or becoming party leader for the first time, with all the opportunities ahead to unite disappointed voters or defeated candidates around you. But it does not hold for an incumbent leader.
While I never faced a vote of no confidence in my four years as opposition leader, I would have regarded my position as completely untenable if more than a third of my MPs had ever voted against me. John Major was entirely ready to resign in 1995 if he had not won the support of a very large majority of the party. If, with all the power of the party leadership, all the years of acquaintance with MPs, all the knowledge they have of your abilities and plans, you still cannot crush a vote of no confidence by a commanding margin, then not only is the writing on the wall but it is chiselled in stone and will not wash away.
The nature of this particular revolt makes it qualitatively as well as quantitatively devastating. A fairly narrow victory for Boris Johnson is not the defeat of a rival faction, or the squashing of an alternative candidate, but rather the fending-off of a gathering feeling of hopelessness. It is less likely to prove a turning point than a way marker on an exhausting road to further crises of confidence. That is the worst possible result from the Conservative Party’s point of view. Logically, they should either reconcile themselves to Johnson and get behind him, or decisively eject him and move on to a new leader. It does not seem they have done either.
A leader has to be able to draw on the great majority of talent in their party, to inspire MPs, members, supporters and voters to fresh efforts to win more election victories in the future. A prime minister has to feel sufficiently secure with his or her own MPs to insist on difficult policy decisions and not fear at any moment a resignation by ministers or a new declaration of opposition from MPs that makes their job impossible. With massive economic and security challenges intensifying, the job cannot be done from a position of weakness, with a sullen and disaffected party.
While Johnson has survived the night, the damage done to his premiership is severe. Words have been said that cannot be retracted, reports published that cannot be erased, and votes have been cast that show a greater level of rejection than any Tory leader has ever endured and survived. Deep inside, he should recognise that, and turn his mind to getting out in a way that spares party and country such agonies and uncertainties.
No individual in politics matters more than the health of our democracy. That health depends on voters having faith in the integrity of leaders even if they disagree with them, respect for how government is conducted, and a competitive choice at a future election. The votes just cast show that a very large part of the Conservative Party cannot see Johnson providing that.
