Energy price rises and price cap discussion.

[Trainbike46]

Solar heat gain mostly (very large windows) and extremely good heat retention, plus windows that are designed to only open 10 degrees for safety with no override option. Closing blackout blinds through the day helps a bit, but they just act as radiators since sunlight still gets through the windows themselves. Most new build tower blocks are like this, from what I understand.

Fortunately at the moment it’s still a relatively small number of total properties — and it’s definitely a “win” overall in terms of energy usage — but it’s still an ‘unnecessary’ issue and is ever growing, and I suspect governments won’t think to regulate it until 30 years’ time when widespread air conditioning becomes the new battle. IMO the onus should be put onto developers that it should always be possible for the internal temperature to equal the exterior temperature (or exterior + n degrees; whatever’s realistic).

Do look if you can install external blinds (assuming you own the house?), as they are the most effective at reducing solar heat gain

 

[Dai Corner]

These price rises have been well publicised for how many months now, hence there has been plenty of time to formulate actions which will partially reduce the damaging and life threatening costs to millions of the UK population.

I took my own action and fixed my tariff until next Spring, with no exit penalties in case a cheaper one became available. My mother did the same. We've paid a bit more for the small amount of energy used over the summer but will pay a lot less for the large amount used during the winter.

I don't think such good advice was given by the usual pundits though. Are there any figures on how many consumers fixed and how many will be paying the Government cap prices?

 

[Howardh]

Half our gas comes from the North Sea. Most of the rest from Norway, the remainder from overseas. That's our gas in our waters drilled by our companies. A lot of that is used to produce electricity.

This gas should be fully protected from world prices, the gas won't refuse to come out because we don't pay enough.

Is it because Shell, BP etc won't sell it to us because they can get a much better profit selling it to the world at inflated prices? What's going on?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Is it because Shell, BP etc won't sell it to us because they can get a much better profit selling it to the world at inflated prices?

That, yes. There is scarcity in the market so the price goes up.

 

[najaB]

Nuclear has flaws - it objectively does pose more risk of a major incident than coal, say - but it seems it is the only sensible way out of the present issue for a reliable base load, thus I support it.

Pedantry alert!

Risk is the product of likelihood and effect. Using my go-to example, the risk of the world being destroyed by a asteroid impact in the next 100 years is very low since even though the effect would massive, the likelihood in any 100 year period is vanishingly small.

The risk of a major incident at a nuclear power plant is also incredibly low since the likelihood of an incident is low: there have been several hundred commercial reactors and only four large radiation release incidents.

My other go to when this topic comes up is that a coal fired power plant typically releases more radioisotopes into the environment during normal operation than a nuclear plant, and over its lifetime more than was released during the Three Mile Island incident.

If only Insulate Britain's protests were better designed to achieve what is actually needed, e.g. disrupting building sites rather than roads!

But who, other than builders, would notice?

 

[91108]

One of the main issues is that the most expensive electricity is produced from gas, but the price cap system means that energy companies charge at the highest rate (gas) for everything including renewables, coal and nuclear.

Richard J Murphy has some interesting views which he has posted on Twitter, here is a quote

Bizarrely, however, that’s not how the price is set. The wholesale price of electricity in the UK is set on what is called a ‘marginal costing’ basis. This is much beloved of economists, but is working against the interests of all consumers of fuel right now.

His full opinion can be read here

https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy/status/1564157639621312512

 

[brad465]

Another group we can blame is the anti-nuclear campaigners. They were unsuccessful in France who have quite a few nuclear power stations and relative immunity from world gas prices and political risk. They were successful in Germany who are closing theirs down and buying gas from Russia and burning really crappy 'brown coal' from the eastern part of their country.

Their decision was naiive to say the least, but I hate the notion of blaming ordinary individuals/groups for having opinions they're entitled to have as if it's all their fault. If the Government answering to those campaigners did what they demanded, even if it was the wrong decision, then the Government were fundamentally weak, and/or groups leading a counter argument failed to produce a convincing case. In your examples the counter argument clearly worked in France, but they obviously didn't turn up properly in Germany, and they could even have used France's success to help their cause. "It's better to find one fault in yourself than 1000 faults in someone else." Also, I believe in reconciliation, and anyone who won an argument before but now regrets supporting that view should be applauded for doing so, society cannot progress through petty divisions/blame games.

Meanwhile, I don't know how well the direct debit cancel campaign will be followed, but their proponents are using train carriage spaces to advertise it:

 

[Howardh]

That, yes. There is scarcity in the market so the price goes up.

Well in that case we need to take the companies over and sell to the UK at cost price and not the hyped-up prices the world has. We're being robbed!

 

[Dai Corner]

My other go to when this topic comes up is that a coal fired power plant typically releases more radioisotopes into the environment during normal operation than a nuclear plant, and over its lifetime more than was released during the Three Mile Island incident.

Not to mention the thousands of miners who died prematurely through accidents or disease.

 

[philosopher]

Well in that case we need to take the companies over and sell to the UK at cost price and not the hyped-up prices the world has. We're being robbed!

I agree, the government in this case needs to force producers to produce more gas, either through reform of competition law or if neccesary, nationalisation of gas production in the UK.

Longer term the government could use any profits from gas production to improve home insulation and transition away from fossil fuels.

 

[91108]

That, yes. There is scarcity in the market so the price goes up.

And the companies charge a price based on the most scarce thing - gas - therefore making even more profit on electricity produced from renewables, coal and nuclear .

 

[najaB]

I agree, the government in this case needs to force producers to produce more gas, either through reform of competition law or if neccesary, nationalisation of gas production in the UK.

That makes the assumption that there's spare capacity. I would be surprised if North Sea producers were holding back on production given the current prices they could be getting and the shortfall in supplies from Russia.

 

[Domh245]

Risk is the product of likelihood and effect. Using my go-to example, the risk of the world being destroyed by a asteroid impact in the next 100 years is very low since even though the effect would massive, the likelihood in any 100 year period is vanishingly small.

The risk of a major incident at a nuclear power plant is also incredibly low since the likelihood of an incident is low: there have been several hundred commercial reactors and only four large radiation release incidents.

My other go to when this topic comes up is that a coal fired power plant typically releases more radioisotopes into the environment during normal operation than a nuclear plant, and over its lifetime more than was released during the Three Mile Island incident.

My usual go-to is to link this Kurzgesagt video, which compares nuclear, renewable, and fossil fuels for severity of incident, and even normalises them by production. Nuclear is massively better than any fossil fuel

But who, other than builders, would notice?

Indeed, and given that new builds are relatively well insulated (not the esteemed passivhaus, but still) - what does it accomplish? Unless you're planning on looting the building sites for sheets of kingspan!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Indeed, and given that new builds are relatively well insulated (not the esteemed passivhaus, but still) - what does it accomplish? Unless you're planning on looting the building sites for sheets of kingspan!

They really aren't.

 

[Dai Corner]

They really aren't.

Evidence?

My current turn-of-the-21st-century house is better insulated than the 1960s, 70s or 80s ones I've lived in were when built.

 

[najaB]

They really aren't.

That really depends on what one means by "relatively well insulated" though - relative as compared to what?

Are they better than 50 years ago? Definitely. Are they up to the standards that they should/could be? Definitely not.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Evidence?

My current turn-of-the-21st-century house is better insulated than the 1960s, 70s or 80s ones I've lived in were when built.

Better than older ones isn't good enough. Passivhaus is expensive, but it would be a start to go as high as most Swiss houses and flats.

 

[PTR 444]

My household is fortunate in that the billpayer is on a fixed tariff until August next year, so not worried at all unless our energy provider (edf) goes bust. Even so, I am still thinking of ways in which our household could reduce energy so as to not be in for a shock when the price hikes. While I appreciate these may not work for everyone, some ideas are:

• Turning all electronics off at the wall rather than their built-in power switch
• Keeping all windows closed during the winter except in the bathroom
• Not turning the heating up above 16 degrees
• Taking turns to cook one meal for the household per day rather than everybody cooking their own
• Doing laundry twice a week rather than four times. It is much cheaper to buy more shirts and woolly jumpers in the event that clean ones run out.
• Hanging out the washing on the line all year round rather than just in the summer (as long as temperature is above freezing)
• Not actually working from home on WFH days. Instead going into the workplace, library or a co-working space
• Stopping showering altogether at home and instead doing so at the local gym (thus not having to cancel membership)
• Staying over with friends and relatives more often
• Upgrading to a more energy-efficient smartphone with longer battery life
• Only watching one TV at a time, or watching TV on smartphones only
• Taking a well-earned holiday in a warmer climate during the middle of winter, preferably during term time*

* Before anyone mentions that this is putting luxuries before necessities, let me tell you that my parents have not been abroad since 2006, and myself only once since then. Doing so would help support the travel and hospitality industries at a time when support is needed more than ever.

 

[Dai Corner]

My household is fortunate in that the billpayer is on a fixed tariff until August next year, so not worried at all unless our energy provider (edf) goes bust. Even so, I am still thinking of ways in which our household could reduce energy so as to not be in for a shock when the price hikes. While I appreciate these may not work for everyone, some ideas are:

• Turning all electronics off at the wall rather than their built-in power switch
• Keeping all windows closed during the winter except in the bathroom
• Not turning the heating up above 16 degrees
• Taking turns to cook one meal for the household per day rather than everybody cooking their own
• Doing laundry twice a week rather than four times. It is much cheaper to buy more shirts and woolly jumpers in the event that clean ones run out.
• Hanging out the washing on the line all year round rather than just in the summer (as long as temperature is above freezing)
• Not actually working from home on WFH days. Instead going into the workplace, library or a co-working space
• Stopping showering altogether at home and instead doing so at the local gym (thus not having to cancel membership)
• Staying over with friends and relatives more often
• Upgrading to a more energy-efficient smartphone with longer battery life
• Only watching one TV at a time, or watching TV on smartphones only
• Taking a well-earned holiday in a warmer climate during the middle of winter, preferably during term time*

* Before anyone mentions that this is putting luxuries before necessities, let me tell you that my parents have not been abroad since 2006, and myself only once since then. Doing so would help support the travel and hospitality industries at a time when support is needed more than ever.

I'd add only heating one room and all sitting in there. No need to hear bedrooms at all with suitable bedding.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'd add only heating one room and all sitting in there. No need to hear bedrooms at all with suitable bedding.

Also don't keep windows closed, it will cause damp. Ensure you ventilate properly at least daily and always shower and cook with a window open in that room.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It looks as though continental Europe are considering capping the price of energy at source and de-coupling electricity and gas prices - Things that need to happen:

EU faces awful winters without gas cap - minister

Calls mount for an EU-wide cap on the price of gas and for it not to dictate the price of electricity.

www.bbc.co.uk

The fear must be that whilst Europe reforms its energy supply, we end up left with a right wing Government just re-gurgitating 1980's era market dogma.

This guy from Belgium is spot on there needs to be urgent reform of NETA (New Electricity Trading Arrangements) in the UK to stop marginal pricing driving the cost of electricity to levels that aren't related to what the bulk of the energy actually costs. Most suppliers and generators have entered into 5 year plus contracts at fixed prices and the generators have secured long term agreements for supply of gas from the likes of Centrica, Equinor (Norway) and Quatar (LNG) at far lower prices than the day ahead and futures market is now trading at. It won't neutralise all the increase but at least it goes some way to making sure people are paying nearer the true cost not that set by the energy cap which uses current wholesale pricing and save the government some of the cost of supporting less well off parts of the population.

 

[Dai Corner]

This guy from Belgium is spot on there needs to be urgent reform of NETA (New Electricity Trading Arrangements) in the UK to stop marginal pricing driving the cost of electricity to levels that aren't related to what the bulk of the energy actually costs. Most suppliers and generators have entered into 5 year plus contracts at fixed prices and the generators have secured long term agreements for supply of gas from the likes of Centrica, Equinor (Norway) and Quatar (LNG) at far lower prices than the day ahead and futures market is now trading at. It won't neutralise all the increase but at least it goes some way to making sure people are paying nearer the true cost not that set by the energy cap which uses current wholesale pricing and save the government some of the cost of supporting less well off parts of the population.

Quite.

That's why I've been asking how many consumers are actually paying the capped prices and aren't on fixed tariffs, and questioning the advice given in February by certain moneysaving experts to choose a variable tariff and rely on said cap.

 

[skyhigh]

Upgrading to a more energy-efficient smartphone with longer battery life

I can't see how that would really stack up financially. Taking my smartphone (Samsung Galaxy S20 Ultra), if you charged it from 0-100% once a day for a year the annual consumption would be 7kWh. Even if the price went up to 100p per kWh, it'd cost £7 per year to charge your phone. Using the October cap, it would be around £4.

If a new phone was 50% more efficient (which is unlikely) I'd be saving £2 a year. It would cost way more than £2 to buy a new phone. You would be much better off keeping your existing phone at the end of your contract and swapping to a cheaper SIM-only deal with the likes of Smarty or GiffGaff than buying a new phone.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Aug 2022 ==

Regarding rental property, although not set in stone yet it is very likely there will be regulations in place soon that all new tenancies from 2025 must be EPC ‘C’ or higher, and existing tenancies achieving this by 2028. Rumours also abound that this will have to be be increased to a ‘B’ rating by 2030.

Although in theory this sounds excellent news it is causing a lot of worry for small time landlords, particularly who have tenants in Victorian terraced properties (of which there are an extremely high number of). To achieve a C rating for such a house, even from a D can run into tens of thousands to add floor and wall cavity insulation where there was none previously. It’s also not always as simple as just wrapping insulation around everything, Victorian houses were designed to allow airflow through them, and completely sealing them up with insulation can cause serious issues with damp.

It doesn't help that some landlords simply stick their heads in the sand and ignore anything other than essential work. My last rental had an ancient 2-boiler setup (one for hot water, the other for central heating). The pilot light on both boilers used a relatively massive amount of gas, there was no thermostat on the central heating and it took an age to warm up. The boiler was also in the unheated draughty basement so effectively had to be left running all winter otherwise the pipes would freeze up. The efficiency and gas usage was absolutely appalling. When one of the boilers broke it was so old they had to resort to finding spare parts second hand on ebay. The landlord completely refused to replace the system.

 

[jon0844]

It looks as though continental Europe are considering capping the price of energy at source and de-coupling electricity and gas prices - Things that need to happen:

EU faces awful winters without gas cap - minister

Calls mount for an EU-wide cap on the price of gas and for it not to dictate the price of electricity.

www.bbc.co.uk

The fear must be that whilst Europe reforms its energy supply, we end up left with a right wing Government just re-gurgitating 1980's era market dogma.

It's sad that social media is full of bots/shills/Tory fanboys saying 'We didn't have central heating in the 50s and I survived' and slagging off renewables as being useless, eyesores, unreliable and expensive. And then we had Liz saying it wasn't evil for a company to make a profit...

It does seem that the lobbyists are working extra hard to convince us that these rises aren't really a bad thing or anything to worry about. Given the fact that even the wealthier middle classes are going to get hit hard, I really do wonder if the Tories are aware of the fact that they might become unelectable for a very long time if they don't stop pretending we can get through this without some major changes in policy.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Aug 2022 ==

How would that increase the cost effective lifespan of a car, or change it's emissions to be ULEZ compliant?

I am not sure if it will happen, partly because a lot of the clever on-board tech in modern cars (especially EVs) may fail and prove too costly to fix/replace, but an EV itself should remain usable for longer than many ICE due to the reduced cost of maintenance and less things to go wrong (again, excluding the computer tech side with all the sensors and other bits that are always grossly overpriced).

Will people keep an EV for 10-15 years though? Will people recondition batteries (or replace them in their entirety) to keep the car on the road for another 10+ years?

I am talking about normal everyday people, as there will always be edge cases where people keep a classic car on the road for decades.

 

[yorksrob]

It's sad that social media is full of bots/shills/Tory fanboys saying 'We didn't have central heating in the 50s and I survived' and slagging off renewables as being useless, eyesores, unreliable and expensive. And then we had Liz saying it wasn't evil for a company to make a profit...

It does seem that the lobbyists are working extra hard to convince us that these rises aren't really a bad thing or anything to worry about. Given the fact that even the wealthier middle classes are going to get hit hard, I really do wonder if the Tories are aware of the fact that they might become unelectable for a very long time if they don't stop pretending we can get through this without some major changes in policy.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Aug 2022 ==



I am not sure if it will happen, partly because a lot of the clever on-board tech in modern cars (especially EVs) may fail and prove too costly to fix/replace, but an EV itself should remain usable for longer than many ICE due to the reduced cost of maintenance and less things to go wrong (again, excluding the computer tech side with all the sensors and other bits that are always grossly overpriced).

Will people keep an EV for 10-15 years though? Will people recondition batteries (or replace them in their entirety) to keep the car on the road for another 10+ years?

I am talking about normal everyday people, as there will always be edge cases where people keep a classic car on the road for decades.

Indeed. I have family members who grew up in cold housing in the 1940's and 50's and who suffer long term respiratory illness, likely as a result.

If the conservatives don't start thinking out of the box on this one, they could find themselves becoming very unelectable very quickly.

 

[jon0844]

With LED's modern lighting is small fry, the killer is heating.

Indeed. Even if every LED light was on in our house, the garden and front, the cost would still be minimal. Almost every bulb we have is dimmable, and often on 50% brightness or less, so I'd guess every bulb on at once might be 150W. In reality, likely nearer 80-100W. But they're never always on.

From remote monitoring during my recent holiday, the 'base' load at home was around £1.10 a day for electricity and 20p for gas (heating hot water on a timer) - excluding service charge. That's keeping the fridge/freezer and a second freezer on, as well as the router (to keep two security cameras going) and boiler (to heat the water). Almost every socket was turned off and I even turned off the lighting circuits as smart bulbs can use up to 0.5W even when turned off (I am not sure the exact power consumption, as the bulbs use Zigbee which is low energy).

On a normal average day when at home, we'll spend around £2-3. Maybe a bit over £3 if using the oven for an hour or so, or use the washing machine. More again if using the dryer. Those are all the things that make a noticeable difference.

When I used the air con during the hottest days of the year, it jumped to £8+! However, for a good night sleep that was money well spent. However, if hotter days become the norm in the next 5+ years then it's going to be an issue - for me and everyone. I'd likely invest in a split system to save money and increase efficiency, but it's still a hefty cost at a time when people have been used to saving money due to not needing to heat their home. Cooling a home is a big expense nobody is likely prepared for.

 

[ainsworth74]

Unless grants become available many private landlords will be selling up over the next few years as they will not be able to afford the costs of reaching the higher EPC ratings. This in turn will lead to a further shortage of rental properties on the market and no doubt push rents higher for those remaining.

A glut of properties entering the market? Sounds good for renters who aspire to buy which is quite a lot of them so I wouldn't be neccessarily worried about a shortage of rental properties just yet...

 

[Bletchleyite]

A glut of properties entering the market? Sounds good for renters who aspire to buy which is quite a lot of them so I wouldn't be neccessarily worried about a shortage of rental properties just yet...

Quite. Some of the more penny pinching landlords leaving the market allowing some forced renters to buy if they want seems a very good thing. Good landlords will do the work, seeing it as an investment.

 

[12C]

A glut of properties entering the market? Sounds good for renters who aspire to buy which is quite a lot of them so I wouldn't be neccessarily worried about a shortage of rental properties just yet...

Quite. Some of the more penny pinching landlords leaving the market allowing some forced renters to buy if they want seems a very good thing. Good landlords will do the work, seeing it as an investment.

In an ideal world yes it would be wonderful for all the BTL properties to be bought up by homeowners getting a foot on the ladder.

However, this isn’t always the case. There are always those who are not in a position to buy or want to rent due to the flexibility. No matter how much BTL is maligned, there is always going to be a need for privately rented housing. Where I live in the North West, there is already a glut of ‘2 up 2 down’ terraced housed on the market, for very reasonable prices, as more and more landlords have tried to sell over the past few years. Nobody wants them. First time buyers want 3 bed new builds with a drive and garden. So they sit on the market empty, gradually deteriorating and often end up in the auction.

Meanwhile here at least, there is a ridiculously long waiting list of prospective tenants looking for rentals with not enough housing supply to meet this. Rents are increasing due to demand, with multiple people bidding on the few properties that become available. This is a situation which is going to become much worse.

Indeed there are some terrible landlords (as there are tenants) but the majority are trying to do the best for their tenants but are genuinely worried about how they are going to meet the cost of these changes.

 

[Sm5]

Jobs? We near enough have full employment at the moment, companies can't get staff.

any company can get staff, if they open their treasure chests a bit wider.