319 allocation - there's 8 left over!

[Arriva 175]

Am I correct in assuming that Southern wont be getting any of its Class 319s back from First Capital Connect. I only thought they were on a long term lease and hadnt been completely transferred.

 

[pemma]

Am I correct in assuming that Southern wont be getting any of its Class 319s back from First Capital Connect. I only thought they were on a long term lease and hadnt been completely transferred.

I though they'd be fully transferred and it's just the 377/5s would be going to Southern after the Thameslink order is completed.

 

[tbtc]

The current Manchester Airport-Liverpool Lime Street runs via the Chat Moss.

Yeah, but there was suggestion that it be diverted back via Warrington (since the Scarborough - Liverpool will run via Chat Moss when TPE move to Victoria) - it sounds like a waste (putting a service which could be EMU run back to a diesel route, and therefore not helping get rid of Pacers, I know)
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Did you not read the bit I wrote underneath?

Yes, it was only talking about aspirations though

That's the kind of suggestion which'll make Metro kick up a fuss - replacing trains they sponsor with older trains.

Metro kicked up a fuss a few years ago at the idea that they lose their 333s (built 2000) for cascaded 323s (1992).

321/322s are as old as 319s, so its a completely different comparison

 

[Batman]

As I've already explained in my replies to Class172 Northern will need a minimum of 48 EMUs in the North West to not use DMUs on completely electrified routes.

There is a possibly of LM taking some 323s as I've pointed out there will be some 319s not directly replacing anything. However, Northern won't get enough cascaded EMUs to replace the entire 323 fleet.



No you're not right. There's been 2 x 323s which were out-of-service long term but they have both returned to service. One derailed near Alderley Edge on an ECS run and the other was running a Manchester-Stoke service when a Land Rover parked on a hill near Congleton rolled down the hill, on to the railway line hitting a 323 (and I think a Voyager travelling in the other direction was also involved.)

Once Bromsgrove is built, there will be a basic requirement for 16 units on the Cross City line. There will be 9 morning and 7 evening peak services requiring 6 cars, but I'm not sure how many 6 car trains operate both morning and evening services that require 6 cars.

The Chase Linke will require 6 units (4 regular operations, 2 morning peak extras), so I'm not sure enough will be left over after those used on the cross city line and the 10 units required elsewhere (5 Walsall-Wolverhampmton, 3 on maintainence, 1 emergency cover and 1 New Street - International shuttle). Another two 323's may be required elesewhere in the medium term if the Aldrdige extension is built and there is a timetable re-cast on the Birmingham - Coventry line.

It may be more cost effective to put the left over 323's onto Cross City line trains that don't actually need extra capacity than electrifying the Chase Line.

But then again, electrifying the Chase line would displace one 153, one 3 car 170 and three 2 car 170's. The 153 could go to FGW or Northern and the 170'd could go to Cross Country for the proposed Hereford-Worcester-Birmingham-Tamworth/Nuneaton cross city service. The rolling stock for the extra Birmingham - Worcester services would come from the 170's currently used for peak time extras, but not during the day. I'm not sure if 4 extra 170's would be enough for an extra hourly Birmingham-Tamworth and Birmingham Nuneaton/Leicester service. It's only a suggestion.

Anything has got to be better than leaving a very small number of 323's at Northern when all their other EMU's in the North West would be 319's. I doubt they'd be able to justify the maintianence costs.

 

[tbtc]

Once Bromsgrove is built, there will be a basic requirement for 16 units on the Cross City line. There will be 9 morning and 7 evening peak services requiring 6 cars, but I'm not sure how many 6 car trains operate both morning and evening services that require 6 cars.

The Chase Linke will require 6 units (4 regular operations, 2 morning peak extras), so I'm not sure enough will be left over after those used on the cross city line and the 10 units required elsewhere (5 Walsall-Wolverhampmton, 3 on maintainence, 1 emergency cover and 1 New Street - International shuttle). Another two 323's may be required elesewhere in the medium term if the Aldrdige extension is built and there is a timetable re-cast on the Birmingham - Coventry line.

It may be more cost effective to put the left over 323's onto Cross City line trains that don't actually need extra capacity than electrifying the Chase Line.

But then again, electrifying the Chase line would displace one 153, one 3 car 170 and three 2 car 170's. The 153 could go to FGW or Northern and the 170'd could go to Cross Country for the proposed Hereford-Worcester-Birmingham-Tamworth/Nuneaton cross city service. The rolling stock for the extra Birmingham - Worcester services would come from the 170's currently used for peak time extras, but not during the day. I'm not sure if 4 extra 170's would be enough for an extra hourly Birmingham-Tamworth and Birmingham Nuneaton/Leicester service. It's only a suggestion.

Anything has got to be better than leaving a very small number of 323's at Northern when all their other EMU's in the North West would be 319's. I doubt they'd be able to justify the maintianence costs.

Talking of the West Midlands, is there any chance of LM ordering some 380s (available in three/four coach length) to replace their 323s (which could then head to Lancashire)? The 380s would have more in common with LM 350s (than the 323s), plus the flexibility of being able to work three/four/six/seven/eight coach trains may be better tailored to some peak services.

A 323 would still be around twice the capacity of the average Pacer, for Lancashire services.

 

[pemma]

and therefore not helping get rid of Pacers, I know

Are you really expecting Pacers to be got rid of as a direct result of electrification?

Putting EMUs on Manchester Airport-Scotland will mean TPE can restore their original timetable and diagramming. They'll then be another 4 185s off the Blackpool route which should mean a few diagrams get strengthened and no 170s need to run around in 2 car formation.

We've then effectively got around 30 Northern DMUs being replaced by EMUs. Are you saying those 30 DMUs can't be put to good use in strengthening services?

Metro kicked up a fuss a few years ago at the idea that they lose their 333s (built 2000) for cascaded 323s (1992).

321/322s are as old as 319s, so its a completely different comparison

They were actually unhappy about getting cascaded 323s as both 321 replacement and additional units. The North West had been promised brand new EMUs as 323 replacement. The Yorkshire RUS recommended extra capacity on electrified routes in Yorkshire so suggested that around 8 extra (3 car) trains would be added on the proposed North West order as both additional units for Yorkshire and 321 replacement (for fleet consistency) - which Metro were very happy about. It was then suggested that instead LM would get a Desiro commuter train as 323 replacement and Northern would take the 323s. Metro then kicked up a fuss about getting cast-offs which didn't have corridor connections.

The 319s (built 1987-1990) are up to 4 years older than the 321/9s (built 1991) and up to 3 years older than the 322s (built 1990.) The 323s were actually built in 1992 and 1993.

 

[Batman]

Talking of the West Midlands, is there any chance of LM ordering some 380s (available in three/four coach length) to replace their 323s (which could then head to Lancashire)? The 380s would have more in common with LM 350s (than the 323s), plus the flexibility of being able to work three/four/six/seven/eight coach trains may be better tailored to some peak services.

A 323 would still be around twice the capacity of the average Pacer, for Lancashire services.

Would that idea involve all 43 323's being based in the Manchester area and operating alongside the 319's?

 

[pemma]

A 323 would still be around twice the capacity of the average Pacer, for Lancashire services.

Why are you comparing a 323 to a Pacer? Most of the lines being electrified are mainly 156 operated and quite a few of them see at least one strengthened peak service.

Liverpool - Wigan: mainly 156
Liverpool - Man Vic: mainly 142/150
Liverpool - Man Airport: mainly 156
Hazel Grove - Preston: mainly 150
Man Vic - Blackpool: mainly 150
Man Airport - Blackpool: 185
Liverpool SP - Blackpool: mainly 156

 

[tbtc]

Why are you comparing a 323 to a Pacer? Most of the lines being electrified are mainly 156 operated and quite a few of them see at least one strengthened peak service.

Liverpool - Wigan: mainly 156
Liverpool - Man Vic: mainly 142/150
Liverpool - Man Airport: mainly 156
Hazel Grove - Preston: mainly 150
Man Vic - Blackpool: mainly 150
Man Airport - Blackpool: 185
Liverpool SP - Blackpool: mainly 156

...and a 323 has more seats than a single Sprinter too, I should have added...

 

[Batman]

Would that idea involve all 43 323's being based in the Manchester area and operating alongside the 319's?

I thought the whole point of thi thread is that there will be an over supply of eight 319's to the Manchester area.

Heres an idea.

LM order a mix of 3 and 4 car 380's to operate the Birmingham electric network including the Chase line.

When 165's and 166's move to Bristol after Themes Valley electrification, all of FGW and ATW 150's, 153, and 158's move to Northern and all pacers from FGW and Northern get dumped on the Valley lines replacing ATW 150's. Any left over pacers would be scrapped (at last).

The Welsh Government won't like that, but it will only be tempoary. The Valley lines are then electrified and all 323's along with the eight left over 319's move to an electrified Valley lines network. This will of course require platform extensions at some South Wales station in order to accommodate 4 car trains.

 

[Pumbaa]

Talking of the West Midlands, is there any chance of LM ordering some 380s (available in three/four coach length) to replace their 323s (which could then head to Lancashire)? The 380s would have more in common with LM 350s (than the 323s), plus the flexibility of being able to work three/four/six/seven/eight coach trains may be better tailored to some peak services.

The add-on order of EMUs for LM/TPE is still in existence, with the bulk order for LM to replace 323s and some 350/1s, with the 350/1s transferring to TPE and the 323s to NT), the invitation to specify interest for the job (specified to be compatible with the existing 350s) was issued, and replies received (Siemens replied but don't know of anyone else) - currently this is sitting in the 'TBC' tray at DafT, we haven't heard anything in ages of it.

I suspect now it will be binned, and re-issued, but this time as an add-on LM order to a dedicated TPE EMU fleet, with enough add-on ordered to replace the remaining 321s and provide additional capacity on the long distance routes. The capacity in West Midlands would be enhanced when IEP comes online for the Northampton runs, cascading displaced 350/1s to cover 350/2s, packing some of them off to do the XC line.

A good opportunity will be wasted I suspect.

 

[Batman]

The add-on order of EMUs for LM/TPE is still in existence, with the bulk order for LM to replace 323s and some 350/1s, with the 350/1s transferring to TPE and the 323s to NT), the invitation to specify interest for the job (specified to be compatible with the existing 350s) was issued, and replies received (Siemens replied but don't know of anyone else) - currently this is sitting in the 'TBC' tray at DafT, we haven't heard anything in ages of it.

I suspect now it will be binned, and re-issued, but this time as an add-on LM order to a dedicated TPE EMU fleet, with enough add-on ordered to replace the remaining 321s and provide additional capacity on the long distance routes. The capacity in West Midlands would be enhanced when IEP comes online for the Northampton runs, cascading displaced 350/1s to cover 350/2s, packing some of them off to do the XC line.

A good opportunity will be wasted I suspect.

Orders for new LM 350's are urgently needed. Last time I checked, LM needed a extra 7 350's for extra capacity on Euston commuter services and to make up for the units lost to FTPE.

But 380's will be more suitable than 350's for a replacement for the 323's for resons I've already stated.

 

[Pumbaa]

Orders for new LM 350's are urgently needed. Last time I checked, LM needed a extra 7 350's for extra capacity on Euston commuter services and to make up for the units lost to FTPE.

But 380's will be more suitable than 350's for a replacement for the 323's for resons I've already stated.

The original notice stated "EMUs" to be "compatible with the existing rolling stock", ie the 350s. It will be up to Siemens if they offer 380s or 350s (they could offer 350s, add-on orders of the same product don't have to comply with the most current regs, the issue with the 350 being the obstructed view from the cab and current crashworthiness standards).

It would make sense for them to offer a mixed product, 23m EMUs with commuter arrangement for the West Midlands and 23m EMUs with express arrangement for the long distance WCML services.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
And yes they are urgently needed, in London, in Birmingham, on the WCML long-distance and Liverpool - Birmingham. People moan LM got a cosy deal with rolling stock replacement, but it's not a case of "it wasn't needed", the LM bid did a good job of confirming the prospective train orders.

 

[sprinterguy]

Heres an idea.

LM order a mix of 3 and 4 car 380's to operate the Birmingham electric network including the Chase line.

When 165's and 166's move to Bristol after Themes Valley electrification, all of FGW and ATW 150's, 153, and 158's move to Northern and all pacers from FGW and Northern get dumped on the Valley lines replacing ATW 150's. Any left over pacers would be scrapped (at last).

The Welsh Government won't like that, but it will only be tempoary. The Valley lines are then electrified and all 323's along with the eight left over 319's move to an electrified Valley lines network. This will of course require platform extensions at some South Wales station in order to accommodate 4 car trains.

The ATW 150s do a lot more than just the Valley lines (Only about half or perhaps slightly less of their 150 fleet is used on the Valley Lines) and I'd hate to have to endure a Pacer on some of those other runs. ATW are not likely to receive any of the cascaded 165s (To replace the 158s you've sent to Northern) and assuming that it is the thirty six 165/1s that get cascaded over to the West Country then there aren't even enough units to replace FGWs' Sprinter fleet (twelve 153s, twenty five (Rising to at least 34 soon) 150s and fifteen 158s).

Plus it's already been strongly proven that Pacers are not at all suitable for the Devon and Cornish branch lines, assuming that Pacers from Northern are what you would suggest for these branches as you seem to have overlooked them and the routes are not at all suited to Network Turbo operation.

There won't actually be any "left over" 319s either, I'd imagine. The initial maths in this thread hasn't considered a maintenance contingent for the Northern fleet (As far as I can tell it's just the in service requirement), or know the exact number of trains required for the Oxford/Newbury electrification (Not intended as a criticism of a very well thought out opening post, merely an observation).

 

[Batman]

The ATW 150s do a lot more than just the Valley lines (Only about half or perhaps slightly less of their 150 fleet is used on the Valley Lines) and I'd hate to have to endure a Pacer on some of those other runs. ATW are not likely to receive any of the cascaded 165s (To replace the 158s you've sent to Northern) and assuming that it is the thirty six 165/1s that get cascaded over to the West Country then there aren't even enough units to replace FGWs' Sprinter fleet (twelve 153s, twenty five (Rising to at least 34 soon) 150s and fifteen 158s).

Plus it's already been strongly proven that Pacers are not at all suitable for
the Devon and Cornish branch lines, assuming that Pacers from Northern are what you would suggest for these branches as you seem to have overlooked them and the routes are not at all suited to Network Turbo operation.

There won't actually be any "left over" 319s either, I'd imagine. The initial maths in this thread hasn't considered a maintenance contingent for the Northern fleet (As far as I can tell it's just the in service requirement), or know the exact number of trains required for the Oxford/Newbury electrification.

ATW could retain some 150's for operations outside the Valley Lines and FGW could retain some for Devon/Cornwall branchlines and to make up for the shortfall of 165/166's.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

The original notice stated "EMUs" to be "compatible with the existing rolling stock", ie the 350s. It will be up to Siemens if they offer 380s or 350s (they could offer 350s, add-on orders of the same product don't have to comply with the most current regs, the issue with the 350 being the obstructed view from the cab and current crashworthiness standards).

It would make sense for them to offer a mixed product, 23m EMUs with commuter arrangement for the West Midlands and 23m EMUs with express arrangement for the long distance WCML services.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
And yes they are urgently needed, in London, in Birmingham, on the WCML long-distance and Liverpool - Birmingham. People moan LM got a cosy deal with rolling stock replacement, but it's not a case of "it wasn't needed", the LM bid did a good job of confirming the prospective train orders.

The reason I said 380's instead of 350's is because there is a 3 car veriation of te 380 that will be needed because of the six car platform lengths on the cross city line.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
And even after FGW and some Northern pacers have replaced 150's used on the Valley lines, there will still be a considerable number of pacers opperated by northern. I have no idea how many new 172's will need to be ordered to replace these.

And will 43 323's be enough to operate the Valley lines once the pacers have gone?

 

[Pumbaa]

The reason I said 380's instead of 350's is because there is a 3 car veriation of te 380 that will be needed because of the six car platform lengths on the cross city line.

They could make 3-car 350s if they wanted to, but having 3x23m as apposed to 3x20m is preferable. It depends on what Siemens want to offer, and how confident they are at making the 380s compatible with the existing 350s, will the fly-by-wire technology work with the cable-heavy 350s, and will the cabs couple together neatly and practically will be the deciding issues in what they offer.

 

[Batman]

They could make 3-car 350s if they wanted to, but having 3x23m as apposed to 3x20m is preferable. It depends on what Siemens want to offer, and how confident they are at making the 380s compatible with the existing 350s, will the fly-by-wire technology work with the cable-heavy 350s, and will the cabs couple together neatly and practically will be the deciding issues in what they offer.

The 350's won't need to be compatable with 380's. The 380's would only be used on the cross city line, Birmingham - Walsall - Rugeley, Aldrdige-Walsall- Birmingham-Wolverhampton and the New Steet-International suttle.

 

[anthony263]

if there are any spare class 319's how about FGW use them to run a hourly Cardiff - Bristol TM stopping service in place of the cardiff - Taunton service which will be split at Bristol TM

 

[Pumbaa]

The 350's won't need to be compatable with 380's. The 380's would only be used on the cross city line, Birmingham - Walsall - Rugeley, Aldrdige-Walsall- Birmingham-Wolverhampton and the New Steet-International suttle.

It's been specified that they should be, and it makes sense. The order needs to be homogenous, variations on a class would be acceptable but two separate orders for two different classes wouldn't be. As the primary aim of the order is to boost capacity by complimenting the existing 350 fleet, it makes sense that they are compatible.

 

[jon0844]

As Northern will use them on Airport and Blackpool runs plus serving a lot of university towns (Manchester, Liverpool, Salford, Bolton and Preston) I would hope they include quite a bit of luggage space.

The refreshed 319s have luggage racks, given they serve Luton and Gatwick, so I'd hope that any subsequent refurbishment would keep a similar (or improved) arrangement.

The 319s got the luggage areas at the expense of some seats, making it a very quick and easy fix.

As stated, there are many 'configurations' of 319 but some of them are already quite excellent, with wide aisles and a bright, clean, interior.

Excellent trains IMO - and will be even better when given a proper refurbishment with aircon etc.

 

[hairyhandedfool]

....
Liverpool - Man Vic: mainly 142/150
....

Stalybridge/Manchester Victoria-Liverpool Lime Street services are mainly 150/156, although 142s are used.

 

[Class172]

As suggested by a few others before, how about sending all LM 323s to Northern as well as 319s. Then order a new batch of 3 car 380s (or 4 car 350s with SDO) to replace LM's lost 323s on Cross-city line etc. Then move 350s up to Manchester-Scotland duties and replace them with an AC version of the Class 444 for WCML duties.

I do not know how numbers would work out.

 

[Nym]

There won't actually be any "left over" 319s either, I'd imagine. The initial maths in this thread hasn't considered a maintenance contingent for the Northern fleet (As far as I can tell it's just the in service requirement), or know the exact number of trains required for the Oxford/Newbury electrification (Not intended as a criticism of a very well thought out opening post, merely an observation).

Finally!

Somone has considered fleet availability!

Since the IEP is going to be going ahead there will be more than just 319s leaving thameslink.

If the IEP does replace all services on the Cambridge Cruiser and PBO Semi Fasts (as they'd then be able to keep better time on the fasts with the ICEC rolling stock) then all of the stock from Thameslink, asside from that of the GN lines into Moorgate would be displaced and sent to other operators...

Namely:

317/1 12 Units.
319 86 Units.
321/4 13 Units.
365 40 Units.
377/5 23 Units.

Now...

Some of these are a tad obvious, and some less so...

Just think of when you will be displacing the stock...

The 319 and 377 units will be displaced by the new Thameslink stock...

As will the 317/1 and 321/4 units when the ECML is connected into the Thameslink core.

The 365s will be displaced by IEPs.

The IEP will come in at the same time as the GW Electrification, so the 365s would be nice and sensible to send that way round.

317 and 321 units are the elephant in the room... No idea where they could be sent.

With the state that the 319s will be in and in need of a major refurb, as I have mentioned before, combined with some aggressive electrification it would be sensible to send all of these units to Lancashire. Additional electric units for Leeds Suburban can be provided by 321s, that are already at Nevvile Hill.

20 units for the current 323 Diagrams round GM
40 units to be used for the new Lancs Triangle services.

If more electrification on a few routes was added, such as Guide Bridge - Stalybridge - Victoria, Bolton - Wigan, and Manchester - Chinley (All routes with new bays at Chinley) that would use up another 15 diagrams, totaling 75 for Lancashire / Cheshire etc.

With 86 units that would actually be a stretch. Even with just the Lancs Triangle and strengthening peak time services it would need some 50 or 60 units. But they will also need to have some out of service for a major refurb.

By the time the refurb cycle is complete, more electrification will be in place, or demand will be much higher, so there'll be a need of them.

 

[sprinterguy]

If there is a Stage 2 of the North West electrification (Hopefully including the Buxton line, with a half hourly service for a greater proportion of the day, for starters), then it certainly seems like a very good idea to displace the Great Western 319s to Northern using 365s displaced from the Great Northern by IEP trains.

If the Midland Mainline and Transpennine North routes were to be electrified, then if done properly those schemes have the potential to see a large proportion of the Yorkshire local lines electrified. If this was the case than there stands to be good reason to use cascaded 321s on those services, but I can't see the Yorkshire local lines being electrified on their own merit as a stand alone scheme.

I'd expect that the 317s on the Great Northern will move to NXEA when the Thameslink expansion is completed.

 

[Class172]

317/1 12 Units.
319 86 Units.
321/4 13 Units.
365 40 Units.
377/5 23 Units.

If this is the case then I would do as so:

WARNING: some ideas may be controversial (especially NXEA)

• Class 377/5 - Firstly I would send these all to Southern and as part of this scheme I would electrify Oxted-Uckfield and the whole of the Oxted line can go to EMU operation. This would then allow their 171s to go to the Marshlink line and the rest can be converted back to Class 170s; then they can go to wherever they are needed - (eg 171s>170s>NXEA>displace 156>Northern>displace 150>displace 14x)
• Class 319 - Then all the 319s can go to Northern (any left over diesel stock can be cascaded elsewhere (eg EMT/FGW/ATW). This gives the possibility as Nym said for some more electrification
• Class 365 - These can go onto Thames Valley services once displaced by IEP
• Class 317/1 - personally I would send these to NXEA so all the 317s are together
• Class 321/4 - I would also send these to NXEA. Then I would move NXEA's 21 Class 360 units and they can go somewhere else (whether it'd be Heathrow, Thames Valley or Manchester-Scotland services etc). By giving NXEA the 317s and 321s while taking away the 360s, NXEA gain 4 units overall.

 

[jopsuk]

Whilst I like the idea of sending the 321s and 317s to the East Anglia franchise, I reckon that, even with an increased fleet, there would be a bit of a stink taking away the only Great Eastern electrics built after 1990...

I reckon at the very least the units would have to have a heavy refurbishment- perhaps it could be the start of a full-fleet refurbishment, bring all the 321s and 317s to the same standard interior. Perhaps the 360s could go Northern- and send the 321s and 322s down to EA to be absorbed into the standard fleet- a small further order of 350s could see all of them in one place. Not sure though that they could usefully use such a large fleet- including the 322s, that would make for 122 units.

 

[Aictos]

If this is the case then I would do as so:

WARNING: some ideas may be controversial (especially NXEA)

• Class 377/5 - Firstly I would send these all to Southern and as part of this scheme I would electrify Oxted-Uckfield and the whole of the Oxted line can go to EMU operation. This would then allow their 171s to go to the Marshlink line and the rest can be converted back to Class 170s; then they can go to wherever they are needed - (eg 171s>170s>NXEA>displace 156>Northern>displace 150>displace 14x)
• Class 319 - Then all the 319s can go to Northern (any left over diesel stock can be cascaded elsewhere (eg EMT/FGW/ATW). This gives the possibility as Nym said for some more electrification
• Class 365 - These can go onto Thames Valley services once displaced by IEP
• Class 317/1 - personally I would send these to NXEA so all the 317s are together
• Class 321/4 - I would also send these to NXEA. Then I would move NXEA's 21 Class 360 units and they can go somewhere else (whether it'd be Heathrow, Thames Valley or Manchester-Scotland services etc). By giving NXEA the 317s and 321s while taking away the 360s, NXEA gain 4 units overall.

With regards to the Class 360s, I would refurbish them internally so they were like new trains then put them on the Manchester to Scotland route with 2+2 seating and 2+1 seating in First Class, it can't be that bad.

 

[pemma]

Stalybridge/Manchester Victoria-Liverpool Lime Street services are mainly 150/156, although 142s are used.

OK I was just commenting from what I have seen. The last time I travelled on the line I got a Merseytravel 142 in both directions. In one direction I passed a 156 on a Lime St-Warrington BQ service and in the other direction I passed a 142+150 on a Stalybridge/Victoria-Lime St service.

There's obviously the 180s (similar capacity to 2x156s) that I didn't mention because I was going for what I thought was the usual traction for each line.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

There won't actually be any "left over" 319s either, I'd imagine. The initial maths in this thread hasn't considered a maintenance contingent for the Northern fleet (As far as I can tell it's just the in service requirement), or know the exact number of trains required for the Oxford/Newbury electrification (Not intended as a criticism of a very well thought out opening post, merely an observation).

Yes I realised I'd missed out a maintenance contingent (see post #24) and as Northern are actually short of EMUs at present, they certainly do need extra to cover maintenance. However, as it had been pointed that not all 165s and 166s would be replaced by 319s I thought the two might effectively cancel each other out and still leave a few spare 319s.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Orders for new LM 350's are urgently needed. Last time I checked, LM needed a extra 7 350's for extra capacity on Euston commuter services

That's interesting considering LM produced proposed timetables for an hourly Preston-Birmingham service, an hourly Liverpool-London via Trent Valley service and an hourly (opposed to half-hourly) Liverpool-Birmingham service and explained how they could be run without London Midland obtaining any additional trains.

and to make up for the units lost to FTPE.

I take it you're referring to the previous government's proposals and actually mean "will be lost" as TPE don't have any former LM units.

The previous government proposed 350/1s would be cascaded to Manchester Airport to Scotland and a 5 car IEP train would replace 350s on Northampton-London services. However, this government is referring to ordering new trains for Manchester Airport to Scotland.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

And will 43 323's be enough to operate the Valley lines once the pacers have gone?

Slight issue there. Currently the LM 323s are sent to Longsight (between Stockport and Manchester) for heavy maintenance. Cardiff-Longsight would be a bit impractical for EMUs.

 

[tbtc]

• Class 377/5 - Firstly I would send these all to Southern and as part of this scheme I would electrify Oxted-Uckfield and the whole of the Oxted line can go to EMU operation. This would then allow their 171s to go to the Marshlink line and the rest can be converted back to Class 170s; then they can go to wherever they are needed - (eg 171s>170s>NXEA>displace 156>Northern>displace 150>displace 14x)

I agree with you. In my "back of an envelope" plan I'd also try to replace the 313s on the Coastway service. These 313s would go to an electrified GOBLIN (could be maintained alongside the Moorgate 313s, especially with that service being operationally independent when Thameslink/IEP take over all the rest of the "Great Northern" services.

The massive number of EMUs freed up by the extension of Thameslink onto Great Northern (plus Crossrail taking over the Shenfield services) should allow for further electrification outside London (the Valley Lines etc), even if that means 315s replacing Pacers (rather than anything modern)

 

[pemma]

I agree with you. In my "back of an envelope" plan I'd also try to replace the 313s on the Coastway service. These 313s would go to an electrified GOBLIN (could be maintained alongside the Moorgate 313s, especially with that service being operationally independent when Thameslink/IEP take over all the rest of the "Great Northern" services.

I think with the 319s, it'll be like the 507s and 508s when the Merseytravel franchise started in 2003 - a heavy refurbishment will keep them in use for another 10 years. However, with the 313s and 315s by the time anything replaces them on their existing routes they'll have reached retirement age but some of the more reliable sets may have a couple of years left in them.