Cardiff - Swansea Electrification Cancelled!

[Olaf]

Barnett Formula...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnett_formula

Yes sure, but you can not spend money that has already been spent.

 

[Colind]

I have written to Alun Cairns, Secretary of State for Wales and my constituency MP, challenging inaccurate information he has given. This is his reply. My comments in red. I’d appreciate your comments too before I get back to him, to add weight, particularly if you have professional expertise – please tell me!

Dear Mr --,

Thank you for your email and for taking the time to contact me about rail electrification.

The original commitment to electrify the Cardiff to Swansea line was made before bimodal trains had advanced to today's levels. The bi-modes are exactly as conceived at the start of the programme in 2005 We were anxious that passengers travelling to Swansea didn't have to change trains in Cardiff when the original policy was considered. That was never an option

Electric only trains have been superseded by trains that run on electric and have generators on board to drive the electric motors when mainline power is not available. That is not the case. No other country in the world has, or is planning, a permanent all bi-mode inter-city service. Backup diesel engines provided in some modern trains, the electric IEP included, are there only to provide an emergency ‘limp-home-mode’ in the event of power failure. Latest research shows further promise with electric and battery powered support.Massively heavy Some are even piloting hydrogen alternatives Decades away.

As a result, fitting pylons and cables and raising bridges is not necessary to achieve the same outcome.

The topography and geography between Cardiff and Swansea means that there is a maximum speed limit of 75mph - and then only for short stretches. The diesel generated electricity power easily achieves this.

Therefore, in view that changes in the technology means that we can achieve the same outcomes, I hope you will agree that this decision makes sense. There is an added benefit in that the new trains to Swansea will be available by the autumn Bi mode trains to Swansea have been planned for October for some time.The recent abandonment of electrification to Swansea doesn’t advance this by a single day. with significant journey time saving. Fitting an electric system would have taken several years and major disruption, without saving a minute more than the option being pursued.That is not the case. Even with a low speed route, superior acceleration after the three intermediate stops will give a faster journey. Naturally, the cost of the bimodal trains is higher than the electric only options were.

It is interesting to note that the Welsh Government have also ordered bimodal trains for their planned 'electric' metro. Class 769? A strange decision with only 20 route miles electrified! In any case not relevant to IEP

I hope this information is helpful and thank you once again for taking the time to raise this matter with me.

Yours,

Alun

 

[Envoy]

Everything you have highlighted in red is indeed correct. Higher speeds than that suggested by Mr. Cairns are allowed on parts of this route.

 

[deltic]

Everything you have highlighted in red is indeed correct. Higher speeds than that suggested by Mr. Cairns are allowed on parts of this route.

Yes there are quite a few 90mph sections on the route

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

There was a phase, between Hitachi being selected as preferred supplier and the IEP contract close in 2012, when the industry was lobbying for straight EMUs instead of bi-modes.
That would have meant changing at Cardiff, or some loco-hauled solution.

The original mixed IEP fleet order would have put EMUs on Cardiff services and bi-modes on Swansea services until the wires reached Swansea - there was always a bi-mode time gap.
Now they are all bi-modes it doesn't matter where the wires finish.

We are certainly being spun a line, so it's not just Chris Grayling's big idea.
The DfT and Treasury have set their faces against electrification, at current costs at least.
Picking small holes in the argument is not going to work.
Network Rail has to halve its electrification costs for the programme to restart, and in the meantime it's a bi-mode world.
All this and no bi-mode has yet turned a wheel in revenue service in the UK.

 

[gareth950]

The last line in his response is an outright lie. Surprise - a lie from Alun Cairns. But I guess he couldn't resist a dig at the Welsh Labour Govt.

The 769s have been ordered by Welsh Govt on a short term lease until 2021 to allow existing 150s and 158s in Wales to be released for PRM mods. Nothing at all to do with the South Wales Metro.
The 769s were ordered as nothing else was available to come to Wales to cover for units being sent away, apart from D-trains which no-one seems to want to touch.

Cairns is the most useless Welsh Secretary ever. Just a yes man to his superiors.

 

[Llanigraham]

Hydrogen cell technology is not "decades away". It is already in use on a car made in Mid Wales, is all ready in use on delivery vehicles in the USA and there are currently several buses being developed using the system.

 

[PaulHarding150]

Ask him about the lack of joined up working between the DfT and DEFRA.

Why the government scraped rail electrification projects (20th July) and then six days later announced it is to ban production and sale of petrol and diesel cars (26th July) by 2040 in a bid to reduce air pollution.

 

[jimm]

That is not the case. No other country in the world has, or is planning, a permanent all bi-mode inter-city service.

While much of what you say is correct, I'm afraid that bit isn't.

In France, SNCF started bi-mode Intercity services using new Alstom Coradia Liner 6-car bi-mode units in February between Paris Est, Troyes and Belfort, with the full fleet of 19 sets in operation as of this month.

From next month services will start between Nantes and Bordeaux and from Nantes to Lyon at the December timetable change - these routes will be operated by a shared fleet of 15 sets.

Another 10 sets were ordered by SNCF in April, for routes including Paris-Amiens-Boulogne.

Algeria has also ordered 17 Coradia Liner bi-modes for its long-distance services, with services due to start next year.

All this and no bi-mode has yet turned a wheel in revenue service in the UK.

Depends what you mean by a bi-mode. The Class 73s and Class 74s were bi-mode trains and both were used in revenue service in the UK.

 

[hwl]

All this and no bi-mode has yet turned a wheel in revenue service in the UK.

?
Class 201-207 spent plenty of time in revenue earning service in 3rd rail land, the best being the Class 205's 47 years in revenue earning service with BR, Connex South Central and Southern.
?

 

[Dai Corner]

While much of what you say is correct, I'm afraid that bit isn't.

In France, SNCF started bi-mode Intercity services using new Alstom Coradia Liner 6-car bi-mode units in February between Paris Est, Troyes and Belfort, with the full fleet of 19 sets in operation as of this month.

From next month services will start between Nantes and Bordeaux and from Nantes to Lyon at the December timetable change - these routes will be operated by a shared fleet of 15 sets.

Another 10 sets were ordered by SNCF in April, for routes including Paris-Amiens-Boulogne.

Algeria has also ordered 17 Coradia Liner bi-modes for its long-distance services, with services due to start next year.



Depends what you mean by a bi-mode. The Class 73s and Class 74s were bi-mode trains and both were used in revenue service in the UK.

Not quite the same thing, but a number of trains were electrically powered for part of their journey and diesel for the rest. Notably Waterloo-Bournemouth-Weymouth and Euston-Crewe-Glasgow. Funding for further electrification was available later on and they became electric throughout.

The business case for Cardiff-Swansea electrification is probably weak for 1 tph but would be much better for 3 or 4 tph.

 

[snowball]

?
Class 201-207 spent plenty of time in revenue earning service in 3rd rail land, the best being the Class 205's 47 years in revenue earning service with BR, Connex South Central and Southern.
?

I don't know much about the Southern Region but I thought those classes were all DEMUs. If that makes them a bi-mode, then an HST or a Class 66 is a bi-mode.

Diesel-electric is not the same as electro-diesel.

 

[Gareth Marston]

of course we could have had LHCS with loco's at half the price of IEP - its all very well Daft bleating about the cost of electrification but lets not forget the huge unnecessary costs they've gone to so we can have a train that has a magic button that engages the diesel engines whilst the pantograph is still up.

Ministers might like a train that's like James Bond's Aston Martin and has special feature button on the control panel but in the real world we will lose the benefits of all electric trains as the trains will be heavier and will cause more track wear and tear, they'll be more unreliable due to being diesels, the acceleration will be poorer due to the extra weight and passengers will have to endure underfloor diesels

Perhaps the most pertinent question to ask is what happens to the world price of diesel and supply once Europe moves to electric vehicles? Will we have anything that's affordable to fuel the magic button train off the wires by 2040?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Depends what you mean by a bi-mode. The Class 73s and Class 74s were bi-mode trains and both were used in revenue service in the UK.

I'd class those as "last mile" capability really, like the new class 88s, as the diesel capability was significantly less than the electric.
Did they ever run front line passenger services in both modes?
I thought they were intended for freight use (eg in unelectrified sidings), which tailed off during their lifetime.
The Weymouth trains added a loco at Bournemouth and were not bi-modes, nor were any of the other services which changed locos en route.

By "turning a wheel" I meant in DfT terms of seamlessly switching modes at speed, with passengers "not being able to tell the difference".

I'm aware of the French operations, but haven't come across any reviews of their operation compared to what went before.
From the spec they look more like Stadler regional bi-modes than front-line intercity units like IEP.

 

[edwin_m]

I think in theory a class 33 or a DEMU could multiple with an EMU on the Southern, but I don't think there was any regular instance where a diesel was hauled/propelled dead over electrified track and then started up to take the train beyond the third rail.

 

[Envoy]

The business case for Cardiff-Swansea electrification is probably weak for 1 tph but would be much better for 3 or 4 tph.

In the morning and evening peaks, 2 Swansea > London Intercity Trains an hour are in operation. Additional services that could have used the overhead wires are stoppers from Swansea to Cardiff - that perhaps could have been extended to Bath to make full use of the overhead system. On the eastern leg from Bridgend, we have the Maesteg trains - which possibly could have been all electric to Ebbw Vale.

The Manchester to west Wales trains have most of their travel on non electrified lines - which are likely to stay that way - for ever by the look of it. Even so, about 80 miles would have been under the wires had Swansea to Newport been electrified in addition to the present section from Crewe into Manchester. Hence, it might well have been worth while ordering bi-modes for these services which are currently operated by mainly overloaded 2 & 3 coach 175’s. The fact that Cardiff to Swansea is not going to be electrified surely blows the ordering of bi-modes for this route into the long grass.

 

[jimm]

I'd class those as "last mile" capability really, like the new class 88s, as the diesel capability was significantly less than the electric.
Did they ever run front line passenger services in both modes?
I thought they were intended for freight use (eg in unelectrified sidings), which tailed off during their lifetime.
The Weymouth trains added a loco at Bournemouth and were not bi-modes, nor were any of the other services which changed locos en route.

By "turning a wheel" I meant in DfT terms of seamlessly switching modes at speed, with passengers "not being able to tell the difference".

I'm aware of the French operations, but haven't come across any reviews of their operation compared to what went before.
From the spec they look more like Stadler regional bi-modes than front-line intercity units like IEP.

If you want to hedge things around with umpteen conditions, perhaps do it first before throwing a general remark out there.

How on earth is anyone meant to interpret

"turning a wheel"

as this?

in DfT terms of seamlessly switching modes at speed, with passengers "not being able to tell the difference".

There were occasions when in an emergency pairs of 73s worked CrossCountry trains using third rail as far as that lasted and then switched to diesel, losing lots of time once off electric power. One pair even made it as far as Birmingham.

What went before in France was diesel-powered rakes of Corail coaches. The SNCF Intercites Coradia Liner units are a 100mph long-distance unit and for that very reason they were ordered with interiors different from the previous SNCF bi-mode and tri-mode units, which do indeed work on regional services.

Paris-Belfort is 225 miles, Nantes-Bordeaux is 200 miles or so (some services will extend past Bordeaux to Toulouse, which adds another 150 miles, and west of Nantes to Quimper, another 150 miles), Nantes-Lyons is 400 miles plus - hardly regional routes in my view - unless another of your unwritten conditions is that all intercity trains must serve a capital city...

 

[Colind]

Thanks very much for all your comments about my Alun Cairns correspondence. I have taken them all on board, I'll let you know how he responds.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Thanks very much for all your comments about my Alun Cairns correspondence. I have taken them all on board, I'll let you know how he responds.

Minister - all we want is the truth NOT spin. We have cancelled the project due to huge cost overruns early on - I cant say that because it sounds like on the English side the costs greatly overran so the Welsh side is suffering.

God I hate spin. - Tell me the truth - I can handle the truth even if I don't like it.

 

[IanXC]

To my knowledge this is first time we've seen definate language in connection with IEP running to Pembroke Dock?

Q75Chair:You describe it as a small number of projects. I have to say that is not how it is viewed by people in south Wales or across the midlands and in Sheffield.

Chris Grayling: If we take south Wales, the trains those people will be using for the foreseeable future are running today. Those trains will take time offthe journey to Paddington; they will run quicker. They will run through to Pembroke dock when we have done the upgrade works for that. If wethen erected the wires, it would make no difference whatsoever to passengers—literally no difference at all. I do not think people are bothered in the slightest about how the train is powered. What they are worried about is whether they are sitting in a comfortable train that gets them there faster. Why would we spend more than half a billion pounds on absolutely no benefit to passengers whatsoever?

http://data.parliament.uk/writtenev...-the-department-for-transport/oral/71474.html

 

[gareth950]

If we then erected the wires, it would make no difference whatsoever to passengers—literally no difference at all. I do not think people are bothered in the slightest about how the train is powered. What they are worried about is whether they are sitting in a comfortable train that gets them there faster. Why would we spend more than half a billion pounds on absolutely no benefit to passengers whatsoever?

So why did you bother with London -- Cardiff then? Economic benefits and impressions. Less track and train maintenance due to lighter all electric trains & less wear & tear. Most importantly - environmental benefits and reducing emissions. Don't spin it - just tell the ****ing truth!

Most clueless transport secretary..........EVER?

 

[MarkyT]

So why did you bother with London -- Cardiff then? Economic benefits and impressions. Less track and train maintenance due to lighter all electric trains & less wear & tear. Most importantly - environmental benefits and reducing emissions. Don't spin it - just tell the ****ing truth!

Most clueless transport secretary..........EVER?

With bimodes it still makes sense to minimise mileage on diesel power. That minimises engine hours and conserves fuel. I think it is also important to minimise switching between the two modes and ensure such events do not need to occur routinely at very busy locations on trunk main line segments (i.e near Maidenhead although I understand that's only a temporary arrangements). Incidents of failure in changing modes will be related to total numbers of such events; the more changeovers each journey relies on the more likely a failure will occur during that journey. More insidious is the possibility of latent faults present in parts of the traction system that may only be revealed immediately after a switchover event. Therefore changeovers should ideally occur only at places where other traffic cannot be seriously delayed. That suggests preferably doing it only while stationary at a major station such as Cardiff, where there are other platforms to use should the train sit down following changeover. This reliability concern in my mind puts paid to Grayling's fantasy of 'discontinuous electrification' i.e where short gaps can be included almost anywhere desired to save costs or avoid inflaming local nimbys. Bimodes are useful for extending service from a electrified trunk to a range of unelectrified branches and extremities but they are not the universal solution our SoS for Transport seems to think they are.

 

[Envoy]

Q58Chair: You obviously think that the Government’s decision back in 2012 to undertake this electrification was flawed.

Chris Grayling: I do not think it was flawed. The point about electrification is that it works well in places, and in other places it works less well—for example, electrifying a high-intensity suburban line where trains are stopping and starting in very short order, or electrifying a 125-mph main line railway. When a train can go at only 75 mph, as it can in south Wales, it is much less clear that it is beneficial. The benefit-cost ratio in that example, for the Cardiff-Swansea route, is very low.

We have to get away from concern about the form of traction. What passengers care about is whether they have a nice,comfortable modern train that gets them to where they want to go at a faster time and in a comfortable environment of the kind they expect on their trains. That is happening. If you look at the Cardiff to Swansea route, those trains are starting now.

http://data.parliament.uk/writtenev...-the-department-for-transport/oral/71474.html

I thought the maximum speed limit between Cardiff and Swansea was 90 or even 100mph? Chris Grayling says that electrification works well in some places - for instance, on a high intensity suburban network. Surely, not only is the south Wales mainline an important Intercity route but also doubles up as a suburban network with stopping trains having to be slotted in between the express services. It not just about the London trains!

I would have thought is beneficial if westbound trains leaving Cardiff Central, could use electricity to maybe as far as Leckwith north junction so as not to fire up diesel engines from cold whilst in the station? (This would save a bit of diesel fuel during the acceleration phase and reduce air pollution in the station).

 

[Gareth Marston]

I wonder whether the SOS knows or even cares that the Pemroke Dock branch will have to be closed for months to rebore Narbeth tunnel? And what impact will this have on other Network Rail projects in Wales as no doubt it will have to come their budget rather than Daft stumping up the cash.

 

[gareth950]

I wonder whether the SOS knows or even cares that the Pemroke Dock branch will have to be closed for months to rebore Narbeth tunnel? And what impact will this have on other Network Rail projects in Wales as no doubt it will have to come their budget rather than Daft stumping up the cash.

As I said......clueless.......quite literally. Grayling has ****ed up every single department he's been an SoS or minister of.

 

[takno]

As I said......clueless.......quite literally. Grayling has ****ed up every single department he's been an SoS or minister of.

He seems to trying to mess up agriculture as well at the moment, and he doesn't even work there

 

[Dai Corner]

Does anyone know why the Pembroke Dock branch has retained through trains to London while Milford Haven, Fishguard, Aberystwyth ( or Barry Island for that matter!) have not?

 

[allaction]

I had no luck from repeated written requests to GWR (and even ATW who had given me a direct answer to a different question) regarding the retention of the direct London - Pembroke Dock services, but a colleague was told by a high up source that the service runs at present and will continue to do so in the future.

As a Tenby passenger, I’m absolutely delighted.

 

[daikilo]

I had no luck from repeated written requests to GWR (and even ATW who had given me a direct answer to a different question) regarding the retention of the direct London - Pembroke Dock services, but a colleague was told by a high up source that the service runs at present and will continue to do so in the future.

As a Tenby passenger, I’m absolutely delighted.

Yes, well, high-up sources can be wrong when they kick-off on a subject they don't understand, unless of course they know we should expect some HSTs to remain.

 

[Starmill]

Does anyone know why the Pembroke Dock branch has retained through trains to London while Milford Haven, Fishguard, Aberystwyth ( or Barry Island for that matter!) have not?

It has only retained through services in a very roundabout sort of way - there are no through services at present and there are never any on weekdays - the usefulness of the services as through trains is thus rather limited.

It's just there to provide capacity for summer holiday traffic going to Tenby from large Welsh towns and cities. That's pretty much it - there is absolutely no need to use 80x stock to achieve that.

An increase in services from Carmarthen to London to more than one each way per day (except Sundays when there are three) would be much more useful - it would probably be viable to have a 2-hourly service to London. Of course, this was quite likely anyway, regardless of the electrification to Swansea (which was and is still a good idea - even if not the most affordable good idea - regardless of the nonsense Mr Grayling comes out with).