Who said anything about a pot of gold? Whether you wish to believe it or not, there is a potential market there. I live along the route and I know that people would use it regularly if it a) ran when they needed it, and not when it was operationally convenient & b) offered more than a minimal capacity because there have been plenty of times when the route was ran at 2-3 times a day where people have watched it fly past because it was full. There has been call after call to have it re-instated properly over the years from various areas along the route, but for whatever the reasons the possible operators have not taken a punt. And before there are any more silly comments on over-expectations, nobody is expecting a 36 / CityZap style premium route, just a viable service with decent capacity that runs reasonably reliably with reasonably well appointed vehicles. You know a bit like the 60 or 662, but maybe only starting out as an hourly service. I'm sure that some of the bigger companies could, if they so wished, be able to re-grow the route without bringing them on the country to their economic knees. After as stated above First dropped the route(s) not because they were loss making, just that they were not making enough (plus some other operational reasons for some routes). And as stated time and again, the traffic grew worse as the bus services fell away, so it is not unreasonable to assume that at least some of those drivers would consider a return to the buses if the right services were available to them.
And here's some shocking news, just because a couple of private operators haven’t gone for it doesn't mean they are right in assessing it as not viable. I know this flies in the face of all that is believed in the 21st Century UK, but sometimes private companies get things wrong!! I'm sorry if this offends or upsets your sensibilities in any way, I'm not sure quite why you are so against the idea of it being properly tried, but people in my area often lament the loss of so many services which they used on a regular basis.
Please don't misrepresent me - my pot of gold reference is whether there is a viable, commercial opportunity there. First didn't feel there was and, let everyone be clear, no-one knows if it was making any money at all let alone the famed 8%. That is conjecture.
More importantly, TLC tried it but couldn't make it pay - get the message about the standard of fleet/marketing etc. However, there are two other parties who are known for "having a punt" and they've not felt done so. Why, if there is money to be made? This apparent latent demand - people appealing for its return. Why haven't these firms elected to have a go?
Your view is that those former passengers have deserted the 653, hacked off with older vehicles etc provided by First. Some will have done so and I don't deny - reliability is the single biggest concern for travellers. However, the reality is that the improvement in the rail service is much more of a factor and it is that which has decimated the bus service from Guiseley to Bradford. It is a public transport success story so I'm not being negative.
If you want shocking news - here it is. Congestion on key routes into major cities is common across the country, not just where First happen to operate/did operate. Car ownership has continued to grow above the level of population growth. Without good bus priority, buses will spend time stuck in the same traffic, albeit slowed by stopping for passengers.
I'd love to see more people on public transport and more investment. However, we've seen the impact in the Borders. That was a half hourly service and was operated by modern vehicles etc. The First Borders staff are also pretty diligent - well presented vehicles with decent drivers. Put on the rail service - loadings reduce markedly as those who suddenly have a reliable train service with attendant time benefits have switched. Does this mean that the traffic on the A7 into Edinburgh has suddenly melted away.... no. As I said, some won't because they "don't do public transport" and believe me, there are plenty of non middle class people who think that way. Some prefer to be in their own space with their own music, smoking out the window, or whatever.
However, and this is what is perhaps even more pertinent, is that many people don't live in the centre of Otley (will they get a bus in and change?) or don't work directly on the route (like the 1500 people who work at Morrisons HQ). There are a whole range of different origin and destination points and that is more diverse than ever. In fact, a car is an enabler to achieve this, permitting journeys that could not be made by public transport.
Now, is there a demand for a direct bus from Otley to Bradford? Maybe there is. However, is it viable? Well, judging by two operators who didn't make it work, and two who could enter the fray but have elected not to, then clearly many people are decided that it isn't.
Metro could fund a service but save one journey, they don't. I'm not against a service - it's not a personal thing - but it's more an exploration as to why these operators are seeking to ignore a viable, money making opportunity that you believe exists.