I'd just like to clarify something.
I have repeatedly said there will be "no second wave" in any country with a death rate above 500 per million, particularly any European country.
I am referring to deaths not infections. TBH, I'm only really bothered about how many people die from this virus, and so should everybody be, infections were only (possibly) useful in predicting future deaths, but the relationship between the two (infections and deaths) seems to have broken down, thankfully. The infection rate in may countries is going up, but not the death rate, certainly not be any where near the same percentage.
What does worry me though is the very broad definition of a Covid death, as far as I'm aware anyone who dies and has tested positive for Covid within the previous 28 days is counted as a Covid death (can anyone confirm this is correct ? ). So, if the infection rate goes up that almost certainly means the death rate will go up simply because there is a greater chance that peopel who would have died anyway will have Covid !
This is also true of pretty much any infection. My step father whilst in a very poorly state during treatment for leukaemia died from what was believed to a a common cold. Its why understanding the true nature of each person that died, and correctly reporting it in the data is key. In years to come many governments around the world will have some very difficult questions to answer around this.
I think you're right.
This graphic might be if interest.
People's adherence to the lockdown actually started easing off within a few weeks but it is not easily quantifiable (other than traffic density, does anyone know where to get those stats ?). I worked right through this Covid episode (so was "out and about") and I can tell you for certain that people started getting less strict about the lockdown inside 3 or 4 weeks, slowly at first, then more widely as time went on.
Graphs of the falling infection rate and death rate as the lockdown is officially eased off, no increase despite the "experts" telling us, at every stage, there could / would be :
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