Covid restrictions to end on 19th July

[102 fan]

So why have it?

Exactly! If it works, we shouldn't hear restrictions again. If we hear lockdown, then it's not.

 

[takno]

The news conference suggested that double vaccine reduces onwards infection by about 50%.
Anybody dare to say how that compares to masks?

Jabs are completely useless for the job masks are designed for. People walking around with two jabs in them aren't carrying a message of fear, and just don't demand respect for government in the same way.

 

[Domh245]

Whitty pretty positive on the data and vaccine efficacy and acknowledges there will be increase in cases, hospitalisations and deaths but expects on current trends its manageable.

Weird messaging all restrictions are lifted but we need to go slowly and cautiously - umm that puts it on our shoulders if it all goes wrong.

It makes sense in light of the latest SPI-M modelling. Government want the return to normal, but the longer the period over which normality returns, the less likely we are to have catastrophically high hospitalisations again. Urge caution, (scare the population) and the return to normal is dragged out longer

1. The scale of the resurgence in hospital admissions after 19th July is highly uncertain and depends on unknowable factors including how behaviours change in the coming weeks and months. Many modelled scenarios show a peak in hospital admissions well below that of January 2021, but SPI-M-O cannot rule out a wave of a similar or even larger scale.
2. Exponential growth means that very small changes in assumptions on vaccine effectiveness and behaviours after Step 4 is taken lead to very large differences in the trajectories observed here. Uncertainty means it will not be possible to project which of these scenarios will likely occur nor can the peak’s timing be predicted until it has passed.
3. Given this uncertainty, it would be prudent for contingency plans to be put in place for how to respond if hospital admissions approached levels that could disrupt the smooth functioning of health services.
4. If behaviours take longer to return to pre-pandemic levels (and / or if the seasonal effect of transmission is higher), then the peak of the summer resurgence is likely to be lower. This would result in a wave that is broader, or partially shifted to autumn and winter.
5. The next peak in deaths will almost certainly be considerably smaller than that of January 2021.
6. The prevalence of infection will almost certainly remain extremely high for at least the rest of the summer.

The danger is that it gets shifted into flu-season, but a drip-feed of covid patients alongside the usual winter season is probably preferable to a big-hit, followed straight away by winter season

(excerpt of fig 2 from summary document showing hospitalisations for different 'speeds' of returning to normal)

They might as well tell us that the vaccine isn't working.

You continue to have an oddly binary view of the vaccines. They quite clearly work, the fact that we're at mid-December case levels but September levels of deaths and early October levels of admissions is proof enough. However, as per the above linked modelling summary:

While the first estimates of vaccines’ effectiveness against hospitalisation with the delta variant have become available after the previous iteration of modelling, precise values for this cannot be determined from observational studies to date. Models are very sensitive to the assumptions used. For example, the number of infected 3 EMG, SPI-M and SPI-B: Considerations in implementing long-term ‘baseline’ NPIs; SAGE 87 22nd April 2021 6 of 17 vaccinated people who go on to be admitted to hospital with a 94% effective vaccine would be triple that with a 98% effective one

The difference between small % points when multiplied out to population scale can be the difference between "nothing to worry about" and squeaky-bum-time

So why have it?

Don't let the perfect (which doesn't exist...) be the enemy of the good.

 

[MikeWM]

I think the language around masks is just inviting vigilantism. I'll be bare faced in shops and trains from 19th but I fear for the less confident and less well-built (I'm not a fighter or particularly tough, but many times in my life some drunk or psycho person has started squaring up before obviously having second thoughts).

It seems to put those unable to wear a mask in probably a worse position than currently - both in terms of their legal position and in terms of how likely they are to face aggro.

At least previously there were fairly clear and fairly well-defined exemptions, but now (as I've stated before) I'm very concerned that some of the existing exemptions seem not to be applicable with the Equality Act protections for any premises that continue to demand mask-wearing (eg. those who have been physically or sexually abused).

It has the potential to be an almighty unpleasant mess.

All of this sure doesn't feel much like 'freedom', it feels at best like time-limited parole.

 

[102 fan]

It makes sense in light of the latest SPI-M modelling. Government want the return to normal, but the longer the period over which normality returns, the less likely we are to have catastrophically high hospitalisations again. Urge caution, (scare the population) and the return to normal is dragged out longer



The danger is that it gets shifted into flu-season, but a drip-feed of covid patients alongside the usual winter season is probably preferable to a big-hit, followed straight away by winter season

(excerpt of fig 2 from summary document showing hospitalisations for different 'speeds' of returning to normal)
View attachment 99592



You continue to have an oddly binary view of the vaccines. They quite clearly work, the fact that we're at mid-December case levels but September levels of deaths and early October levels of admissions is proof enough. However, as per the above linked modelling summary:



The difference between small % points when multiplied out to population scale can be the difference between "nothing to worry about" and squeaky-bum-time



Don't let the perfect (which doesn't exist...) be the enemy of the good.

And what is wrong with a binary view? And what exactly is your problem to the view that even suggesting a lockdown when the majority of the population have been fully vaccinated does call into question the effectiveness of the vaccine?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Exactly! If it works, we shouldn't hear restrictions again. If we hear lockdown, then it's not.

It does work but only 66% of over 18 year olds are currently double dosed and not forgetting the 9m under 18 so until we are >80% the case levels will rise and whilst hospitalisation and mortality are much reduced (Witty put up a slide showing the difference now to the last wave) there will still be growth in both for a while till we reach that tipping point. So i guess it depends on where the threshold of specifically hospital admissions has been set which they declined to answer.

Reality is stage 3 was the major change in restrictions this stage doesn't materially change things and by now majority of people are well aware of which settings might be risky and can chose for themselves. For instance I will continue to avoid the deep tube as I have done since Feb last year as well as pubs that are overcrowded should that ever happen again.

 

[bramling]

Jabs are completely useless for the job masks are designed for. People walking around with two jabs in them aren't carrying a message of fear, and just don't demand respect for government in the same way.

Nor do they allow people to make a visible display of “doing my bit”. Having a banner on Facebook just isn’t the same!

 

[Jamesrob637]

Definitely an "It's now or never" moment

A pity that song was actually Italian!

 

[102 fan]

It does work but only 66% of over 18 year olds are currently double dosed and not forgetting the 9m under 18 so until we are >80% the case levels will rise and whilst hospitalisation and mortality are much reduced (Witty put up a slide showing the difference now to the last wave) there will still be growth in both for a while till we reach that tipping point. So i guess it depends on where the threshold of specifically hospital admissions has been set which they declined to answer.

Reality is stage 3 was the major change in restrictions this stage doesn't materially change things and by now majority of people are well aware of which settings might be risky and can chose for themselves. For instance I will continue to avoid the deep tube as I have done since Feb last year as well as pubs that are overcrowded should that ever happen again.

You do know that people have been catching viruses and dying long before covid?

 

[greyman42]

It already exists https://www.gov.uk/guidance/demonstrating-your-covid-19-status (that is for England)

Is that not for travel abroad and only valid for a limited period?

 

[Bantamzen]

Is that not for travel abroad and only valid for a limited period?h

There is a travel one, but also there is one currently called 'Even Trials'. That could be repurposed I guess, that events one snuck in a bit back.

 

[brad465]

Is that not for travel abroad and only valid for a limited period?

It is but I expect they would try and expand it (although given how long it took to develop the NHS app for domestic stuff, such an expansion would either be quick and shoddy or done properly but take months).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Jul 2021 ==




At least some of the pro-restriction side of the scientific community are not pleased with what Chris Whitty has come out with in the press conference, suggesting he's expressed/currently showing more balance regarding restriction necessity than the most hardline are, with Lancet editor Richard Horton saying "The chief medical officer is misrepresenting the views of the scientific community & that is extraordinary" (expect of course the scientific community does not have homogeneous views on this matter).

 

[Domh245]

And what is wrong with a binary view? And what exactly is your problem to the view that even suggesting a lockdown when the majority of the population have been fully vaccinated does call into question the effectiveness of the vaccine?

Because the world isn't binary. The vaccines have a very high efficacy against death and hospitalisation, but it isn't 100%. Acting like if it isn't 100% protective in all situations it's useless is unhelpful to say the least, and downright head-in-the-sand-ism at worst.

We've done all that we can in vaccinating as many as we have, especially those who are particularly vulnerable to covid-19, but it's prudent to acknowledge the vaccine isn't 100% effective, and we'll see continue to see cases arriving in hospitals. Nobody is suggesting a lockdown, but having an idea to what we'll do if hospitals are getting overrun nationwide strikes me as a good idea, particularly when there's a reasonable chance that it could happen. Personally I'm quite happy to go with triaging covid patients and wishing them good luck when they turn up at A&E, but that (rightly) isn't the view of society at large

To use your (favourite?) condom analogy, they are 98% effective against pregnancy. If you were to have sex 66 million times, you could expect the condom to fail 1.3 million times, so it would be prudent to think about setting aside a bit for Child Maintenance (or keeping it in your pants a bit more)

 

[jumble]

There is already no requirement to wear a face covering on an open platform, even on part of a platform that is covered by a canopy but which has less than half of the sides enclosed, there is no requirement to wear.

That's not what TFL say ( unless you are only talking about National Rail )

Face coverings

Advice on wearing a face covering on public transport including taxis in London

tfl.gov.uk

Face coverings must be worn for the full duration of journeys on the public transport network, including inside stations, and in taxis and private hire vehicles.
This assumes a journey starts when one goes through a barrier.

This weekend
Large Chain Pub 50% mask wearing 50% not (including Staff)
SouthEastern same
Underground 60% wearing 40% Not wearing

Conclusion in London it's pretty much all over and no one cares much.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Compliance will probably still be fairly high this week knowing there's a clear light at the end of the tunnel rather than just a pinprick.

 

[102 fan]

Because the world isn't binary. The vaccines have a very high efficacy against death and hospitalisation, but it isn't 100%. Acting like if it isn't 100% protective in all situations it's useless is unhelpful to say the least, and downright head-in-the-sand-ism at worst.

We've done all that we can in vaccinating as many as we have, especially those who are particularly vulnerable to covid-19, but it's prudent to acknowledge the vaccine isn't 100% effective, and we'll see continue to see cases arriving in hospitals. Nobody is suggesting a lockdown, but having an idea to what we'll do if hospitals are getting overrun nationwide strikes me as a good idea, particularly when there's a reasonable chance that it could happen. Personally I'm quite happy to go with triaging covid patients and wishing them good luck when they turn up at A&E, but that (rightly) isn't the view of society at large

To use your (favourite?) condom analogy, they are 98% effective against pregnancy. If you were to have sex 66 million times, you could expect the condom to fail 1.3 million times, so it would be prudent to think about setting aside a bit for Child Maintenance (or keeping it in your pants a bit more)

You are misquoting me. I said it's like using a condom AFTER a vasectomy. What else have you misquoted?

 

[Simon11]

It does work but only 66% of over 18 year olds are currently double dosed and not forgetting the 9m under 18 so until we are >80% the case levels will rise and whilst hospitalisation and mortality are much reduced (Witty put up a slide showing the difference now to the last wave) there will still be growth in both for a while till we reach that tipping point. So i guess it depends on where the threshold of specifically hospital admissions has been set which they declined to answer.

Reality is stage 3 was the major change in restrictions this stage doesn't materially change things and by now majority of people are well aware of which settings might be risky and can chose for themselves. For instance I will continue to avoid the deep tube as I have done since Feb last year as well as pubs that are overcrowded should that ever happen again.

Not sure why you would continue to avoid deep tubes. Transport with its cleaning measures are not and have never been hotbed for covid.

Primary and high school with unvaccinated children on the other hand…. I would avoid if possible by a mile if vulunerable and not able to have a jab.
I would however agree with you and think twice visiting a busy pub on a Saturday evening filled with young lager louts…!

 

[Ediswan]

Is that not for travel abroad and only valid for a limited period?

What you can use it for
You can show your NHS COVID Pass as proof of your COVID-19 status when travelling abroad.
It is likely that in addition to your NHS COVID Pass you will need to follow additional rules when travelling abroad.
Read an overview of all the things you need to do to travel abroad from England
The government is working with the devolved administrations to ensure everyone in the UK is able to show their COVID-19 status.
People taking part in event trials as part of the Events Research Programme are also being asked to use the NHS COVID Pass.

It seems the 2D barcodes do expire, but the vaccine status does not.

 

[30907]

You do know that people have been catching viruses and dying long before covid?

Of course. But it is an unusual virus that increases the death rate by 1/4 (+/-) in a year despite lockdowns.

 

[quantinghome]

It seems to put those unable to wear a mask in probably a worse position than currently - both in terms of their legal position and in terms of how likely they are to face aggro.

At least previously there were fairly clear and fairly well-defined exemptions, but now (as I've stated before) I'm very concerned that some of the existing exemptions seem not to be applicable with the Equality Act protections for any premises that continue to demand mask-wearing (eg. those who have been physically or sexually abused).

It has the potential to be an almighty unpleasant mess.

All of this sure doesn't feel much like 'freedom', it feels at best like time-limited parole.

Yup. Johnson has, I think, managed to antagonise pretty much everyone with the current 'plan' no matter what their view on the matter.

As far as freedom goes, it's been a gradual process from full lockdown to where we are now and will continue to be until we get completely back to normal. The idea emanating from some parts of the government that there would be a 'freedom day' when every remaining restriction is suddenly dropped was bound to end in disappointment.

 

[Wychwood93]

It seems the 2D barcodes do expire, but the vaccine status does not.

If you go into the NHS App and proceed to Covid status and 'travel' it tells you that the barcode updates when you go to it - I had a look earlier and it shows a validity to Aug 11, previously it was sometime this month. If you print out a PDF it is valid for 30 days.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Not sure why you would continue to avoid deep tubes. Transport with its cleaning measures are not and have never been hotbed for covid.

Primary and high school with unvaccinated children on the other hand…. I would avoid if possible by a mile if vulunerable and not able to have a jab.
I would however agree with you and think twice visiting a busy pub on a Saturday evening filled with young lager louts…!

Never been bothered about fomite transmission but deep tubes don't have good air quality inside the trains and there's a lot more people per cubic metre of space than surface tube or mainline trains breathing the same air.

 

[brad465]

Yup. Johnson has, I think, managed to antagonise pretty much everyone with the current 'plan' no matter what their view on the matter.

As far as freedom goes, it's been a gradual process from full lockdown to where we are now and will continue to be until we get completely back to normal. The idea emanating from some parts of the government that there would be a 'freedom day' when every remaining restriction is suddenly dropped was bound to end in disappointment.

Very true, but the labelling of "freedom day", regardless of how true it is, will give a strong perception of freedom being allowed and I suspect many will disregard any remaining restrictions/guidance as much as possible. We know large swathes have been doing so already in areas with little enforcement.

 

[island]

That's not what TFL say ( unless you are only talking about National Rail )

Face coverings

Advice on wearing a face covering on public transport including taxis in London

tfl.gov.uk

Face coverings must be worn for the full duration of journeys on the public transport network, including inside stations, and in taxis and private hire vehicles.
This assumes a journey starts when one goes through a barrier.

TfL is entitled to its own opinions, but the actual laws around wearing of face coverings only apply to public transport and certain substantially enclosed buildings.

 

[35B]

And what is wrong with a binary view? And what exactly is your problem to the view that even suggesting a lockdown when the majority of the population have been fully vaccinated does call into question the effectiveness of the vaccine?

The world is rarely completely binary, and the space between the two end positions usually requires judgement and balancing of a variety of factors.

 

[greyman42]

Domestic vaccine passports I believe are there to get young people to get the jab, personally I’m not buying it once 2022 rolls around it’ll be quietly dropped the same way track and trace has been dropped in most places, it’s only really hard locktavists that want them because they’re clearly in favour of a two tiered system so they can feel better than others

So have the government given any indication (as in a date) as to when this passport will be introduced?

 

[henairs]

What is your source for this?

Cars simple as that. The Government has no intention of doing anything to stop pollution by cars as there's to much money to be made from motorists. Rail will never contend with road users and neither will buses or any other form of traction.
And not only that but virtually all train drivers and bus drivers have to get to work. How. By car of course.
So forget Covid because air pollution is a much bigger killer in the long run

 

[Tezza1978]

The fact is many wise bodies and people don't accept stage 4 should be going ahead so the fact they've pushed on with it, despite that, tells me this language is playing to the doves to keep them in check otherwise he risks much more pressure being bought to bare from not just politicians.

I think this is very true. The messaging today has reduced some of the hysterical "won't some body please think of the children??" reaction from the Independent Sage fans/locktivists which helps Johnson get this over the line and keeps SAGE onside.

IMO Johnson will only be able to get away with a winter lockdown if something goes very badly wrong (ie total vaccine escape variant - EXTREMELY UNLIKELY). In a way its good that the daily COVID figures remain - if cases remain low in winter once 3rd wave has passed and we reach herd immunity, the country and the Tory party will not accept a lockdown for standard winter pressures and will rightly blame the govt for under resourcing the NHS

 

[quantinghome]

Cars simple as that. The Government has no intention of doing anything to stop pollution by cars as there's to much money to be made from motorists. Rail will never contend with road users and neither will buses or any other form of traction.
And not only that but virtually all train drivers and bus drivers have to get to work. How. By car of course.
So forget Covid because air pollution is a much bigger killer in the long run

You know the government has passed legislation to ban internal combustion engines in cars by 2035? Car companies are no longer developing designs for internal combustion engines and every company is moving into electric car production as rapidly as they can.

 

[trebor79]

It seems to put those unable to wear a mask in probably a worse position than currently - both in terms of their legal position and in terms of how likely they are to face aggro.

At least previously there were fairly clear and fairly well-defined exemptions, but now (as I've stated before) I'm very concerned that some of the existing exemptions seem not to be applicable with the Equality Act protections for any premises that continue to demand mask-wearing (eg. those who have been physically or sexually abused).

It has the potential to be an almighty unpleasant mess.

All of this sure doesn't feel much like 'freedom', it feels at best like time-limited parole.

I think there will be a few edge cases of smaller independent premises trying to mandate masks. But I don't think it'll last very long 'I'll shop elsewhere then' will be my stock response.
It's going to be really interesting to see how many remain masked on 19th. I think it'll be no more than 50%.