I think that they would be suitable for all the branch lines in Cornwall and Devon, and GWR could get rid of all their pacers and 150's or 153's, plus it would mean they would have a uniform fleet too.
Yes, the 143s and 153s are probably going to be phased out by 2020. There doesn't appear to be much interest or need for an 'ePacer'; which would still suffer from the normal
pacer problems, like no frontend gangway doors for easier multiple working. The 153s have been messed about with so much over the years, that there is unlikely to be much else that can be done with them.
However GWR do seem keen on keeping their 150s. This is evident by the refurbishment and repainting that has restarted in recent months. They've obviously got long term plans for them. These units have proven to be good workhorses over the years (there's never been a period since their original introduction when they haven't operated in the south west), and I expect they'll still be going strong in many years from now.
I think a lot hinges on the cascade of 158s from Bristol, and this would determine whether GWR buys into the whole Vivarail 230 idea or not. Timescales will undoubtedly become clearer as we head into 2016.
It looks like there would be sufficient 150s and 158s to operate all regional Devon and Cornwall services, with a healthy surplus to increase some branchline services or extend onto new routes, like Tavistock or Okehampton. We could probably expect 150s on the branchlines and 158s operating the semi-fasts between Penzance and Exeter, plus Barnstaple, Exmouth, Paignton etc. Similar to how things were handled in the Wessex days.
But timing is crucial. If there are problems
further up the line towards London with electrification or reliability of the new 800s, then the DMU cascade could stop and Vivarail could be in with a serious opportunity of selling lots of units to GWR; who could otherwise be heading towards a chronic DMU shortage. 2020 isn't that far away and I'm informed some units are going off-lease before then too.
If however we start to see more BSI-compatible DMUs cascaded west in 2017 and 2018, I think it's safe to say GWR will not consider running new classes of train, like the 230. They would prefer hanging onto
tried and tested DMUs they've got already for all the reasons of keeping things simple, plus the flexibility of being able to diagram just about any DMU onto any route or run longer trains in multiple.
But even if GWR turn down the 320s, the new Devon / Cornwall rail franchise George Osborne hinted about a few months back MIGHT include procurement of rolling stock. If the new franchise is confirmed and has anything to do with branchlines or semi-fast stopping services on the mainline, then 230s might very well be suited. Of course, much will depend on what the government decides. We're still waiting to hear about the Dawlish decision.
I agree that 320s would certainly be suitable for many services down here and add some interest to the local rail scene. Although they're limited to 60mph and the mainline is 70mph in several places, it's important to remember that sections like Hemerdon Bank reduce ANY train down to about 30mph or less. All the intermediate station stops and additional hills mean you don't really ever get much above 60mph, anywhere west of Exeter. The section of line past Powderham and under the M5 is about as fast as you can go.
The video of the 230 posted a few pages back is impressive. Although I think I'll await full judgement, based on seeing a complete 230 set, doors in the correct place, a hill start on a gradient, in the rain, with a full load of passengers and luggage!
