This is the bit I don't understand.
If thinning out staff on 5 days of the week to put extra staff on the other 2 will make things unsafe for patients on those 5 days, just how unsafe is it NOW for those patients unlucky enough to fall ill on the 2 days which are currently very poorly staffed?
Good question, thank you.
Currently, we have two levels of service. During the week, there is a "full" service, in which emergency and elective care is performed. This currently exists Monday to Friday, excluding public holidays.
At weekends and public holidays, it operates to an "emergency" service level, in which there is little to no elective work (no elective surgery, no outpatient clinics, no outpatient investigations, no chemotherapy day patients, and so on). Patients presenting as an emergency are, of course, offered everything that is required for their care regardless of when they present. But non-urgent work is held until a full service is running.
With the elective workload, more doctors are required over the course of the week. On weekdays, in addition to covering emergency care, doctors are required to run outpatient clinics, perform elective surgery, and look after the more routine cases. This requires more doctors than is needed to cover the emergency care. There are currently fewer staff at the weekend, because there is no elective workload and we are only looking after our emergency patients. This obviously varies between specialties - orthopaedic surgery need only run a trauma service and not their elective workload, whereas A&E departments will be essentially unchanged at the weekend.
Hunt would have you believe that higher mortality at weekends is directly caused by staffing levels. This is not true, there is no evidence to support this claim. Higher mortality does exist for patients admitted over the weekend, but the studies have not identified causation. It is true that patients admitted over the weekend are generally much more unwell than those admitted during the week, which would also contribute to a higher mortality rate.
Hospitals are busy every day of the week, but the lack of routine work at the weekends does mean that we require fewer staff as there are fewer patients. Under Hunt's plans, we would either have to work longer hours or stretch our resources even thinner. As Hunt claims that the new contract will reduce the number of hours that we work, it must be the case that services will be diverted away from weekday care. And this is where people will suffer.
Let me be clear. I support the principle of seven day NHS. It would be brilliant if we could offer the same service on a Sunday as we do on a Wednesday. However, Jeremy Hunt's plan to deliver this is flawed. He needs to train more doctors in order to achieve this aim. He has no plans to do so. He wants to cover more hours without increasing the number of staff, which must mean that either our hours will increase, or the number of doctors on any one shift will decrease. Both of these outcomes will be poor for patient care - either by diverting resources away from the "full service" days, or by increasing fatigue.