I cant really comment on the Inverness service but Ive been a fairly regular user of the Aberdeen services for a number of years and I have to say that I dont feel that the current through passengers justify the retention of this service. My experience is that through Edinburgh passengers are generally pretty low 10 to 20 % and that very few of these originate from south of York. What through passengers there are could be amply served by an enhanced cross country service.
North of Dundee the London services mostly carry fresh air, 1st passengers are non existant and loadings in standard very low certainly all my experiences this year could have been comfortably accomodated in a 2 car 158 if not a 153.
Which service do you use? In my experience (usually the
Northern Lights) it's pretty much solid as far as Waverley, swaps about 50% there, is pretty much solid as far as Dundee, and comfortable from there on. Arriving at Aberdeen usually produces about the same number of passengers as a typical service arriving at Penzance, and there's no sign of those being cancelled. I can understand numbers being a bit low on the 14:00 and 16:00, they arrive at 21:12 and 23:07 respectively. The first catches the peak from Edinburgh and has the 09:25 PLY-ABD in front of it, effectively an advertised relief, which must distort the figures somewhat. In fact, most of the London services have effective advertised reliefs in front of them, the 10:00 EDB-DEE, the 14:30 EDB-ABD, the 16:11 GQS-INV (from Stirling) the 09:25 PLY-ABD and the 11:25 PLY-DEE. Going the other way, the 09:08 DYC-GQS (as far as Dundee) and the 14:39 ABD-GQS (as far as Dundee), so up trains get less relief than down. Interestingly, the 08:20 ABD-PNZ is very close after the 07:52 ABD-KGX, so the HST seems to act as a relief for the Voyager. Presumably, this catches the local passengers and reduces dwell times for the expresses, although still have to pick up through passengers of course. That actually looks like very good timetable planning, but it does distort the figures quite a bit.
If this becomes closer to being official, I would like to get a petition going, and will try to get a mention of it in the
Press and Journal. The through train market may be small, but there will be an outcry in Aberdeen if they are cut.