Economic Case for the Far North Line

[geoffk]

The 15mph limit over the hydro-pneumatic points has been in place since they were first installed in1984.

Sounds like Manchester Metrolink - the trams go slow over points, especially facing ones.

 

[geoffk]

Economic Case for the Far North Line - none! it wouldn't get built today. However by the same token i don't think it is worth the faff to close it!

The ORR station usage figures suggest that stations are relatively well-used as far north as Tain, but after that only Thurso and Wick have significant numbers (and it's 110 miles from Tain to Thurso).

 

[muddythefish]

Economic Case for the Far North Line - none! it wouldn't get built today. However by the same token i don't think it is worth the faff to close it!

Nothing involving sleepers and rail would get built to day in your book. Roads on the other hand..........

 

[DarloRich]

Nothing involving sleepers and rail would get built to day in your book. Roads on the other hand..........

whereas in the fantasy world you seem to live in the sky is purple and money runs out of the taps..............................

 

[muddythefish]

whereas in the fantasy world you seem to live in the sky is purple and money runs out of the taps..............................

Money's always available...given the political will.

Austerity for the plebs but tax cuts for the rich? £1bn for 10 MPs just to keep a discredited and hopeless prime minister in power? £6bn for aircraft carriers that won't have any aircraft? £60bn and counting for HS2?

No problem at all.

Governments spend money when they want to.

 

[DarloRich]

Money's always available...given the political will.

Austerity for the plebs but tax cuts for the rich? £1bn for 10 MPs just to keep a discredited and hopeless prime minister in power? £6bn for aircraft carriers that won't have any aircraft? £60bn and counting for HS2?

No problem at all.

Governments spend money when they want to.

Yawn.

The railway can only spend what money the government allocates it. IF the government decides that £60bn is better spent on aircraft carriers ( that do have aircraft btw but don't let that get in the way of your ill informed ranting) than railways so be it. That is reality rather than your fantasy world. We just have to get one with it and spend the money we are given as best as we can and make sure that spend gets the best return it can . People like you would waste that on frivolous rubbish that delivered nothing but made you feel all warm and fuzzy.

 

[Highland37]

I despair at the "economic case" argument in terms of railways. Railways cost more than they make and lose money in this very restricted view of the world. The same is true for many public services such as health and education. They do not make money.

However, a country is not a company. It is much more than that and exists to do many things. Even a complex company is incredibly simple relative to a governmental system. Oh dear.

 

[DarloRich]

I despair at the "economic case" argument in terms of railways. Railways cost more than they make and lose money in this very restricted view of the world. The same is true for many public services such as health and education. They do not make money.

However, a country is not a company. It is much more than that and exists to do many things. Even a complex company is incredibly simple relative to a governmental system. Oh dear.

oh dear. the naivety. There still has to be a way of weighing up the benefit of a proposal and ensuring that proposal is a better use of public money ( that is money taken form our pockets remember) than another proposal. That seems to be something many of the posters here seem unwilling to accept.

 

[tbtc]

There over a hundred miles of line north of Tain (130 miles, ten chains, according to Real Train times, but that includes half a dozen miles of doubling back between Thurso and Georgemas).

If you assume that there is absolutely no local demand for services within Caithness etc (i.e. nobody ever does something relatively short like a journey from Thurso to Wick) then that would mean (total annual passenger numbers of 94,332 for the seventeen stations north of Tain… ) that the average number of passengers requiring trains north from Tain would be a hundred and twenty nine.

Sounds a lot, but that’s the daily number. Divided by four services per week day and that brings it down to thirty two passengers per train.

(the number of passengers on each northbound service from Tain will be lower than that, as there will be *some* local traffic in Caithness, but for the sake of argument I’m pretending that each seat is only used once per journey, as it’d make the passenger numbers even lower otherwise)

So, we have a situation where the number of miles of track is roughly equivalent to the number of passengers per day using the service (and less than ten departing passengers per person per day, on average, although Thurso/ Wick make up 60% of the demand north of Tain, so the figure is rather skewed).

We are keeping around a hundred and twenty five miles of track open for the sake of around a hundred and twenty five passengers per day.

There’ll be times in the summer when those numbers are higher, just like there will be some journeys that are busier than average (the service arriving into Inverness mid-morning seems popular). But that just means that there are plenty of other services that see fewer than thirty two passengers on them.

No doubt someone will be along shortly to explain why the se passenger numbers (where the average passenger load could be accommodated by an Optare Solo) are a reason why we need to spend hundreds of millions of pounds upgrading the line (plus maybe some whataboutery regarding the cost of projects in areas of the UK with larger population), but maybe the figures explain why Stagecoach have cut the frequency of their “competing” service. The numbers just aren’t there to make a bus service competitive (though that essentially only has one wage to pay, unlike a train that requires driver/ guard/ signalling staff/ station staff etc - if a bus isn't economic then what chance a train?).

I despair at the "economic case" argument in terms of railways. Railways cost more than they make and lose money in this very restricted view of the world. The same is true for many public services such as health and education. They do not make money.

However, a country is not a company. It is much more than that and exists to do many things. Even a complex company is incredibly simple relative to a governmental system. Oh dear.

Ah, the "schools and hospitals" argument...

Railways didn't always cost more than they made - most lines were originally built privately as profit seeking opportunities. Some lines still make profits (i.e. premiums paid to the Government).

For all the nebulous talk of "public services", there's opportunity cost within our public transport budgets - not all of the seventeen settlements north of Tain can justify a full hospital (with A&E wards etc) or a secondary school - they don't all necessarily all require other "public services" like their own police station/ library/ fire station - similarly not all of the seventeen settlements north of Tain can necessarily justify heavy rail - there are much cheaper ways of providing public transport - the answer isn't always "heavy rail" (much as this may irk some of the people on here...)

 

[chorleyjeff]

Money's always available...given the political will.

Austerity for the plebs but tax cuts for the rich? £1bn for 10 MPs just to keep a discredited and hopeless prime minister in power? £6bn for aircraft carriers that won't have any aircraft? £60bn and counting for HS2?

No problem at all.

Governments spend money when they want to.

Surely £1bn extra to be spent in NI. I don't think the MPs have suddenly acquired fortunes.

 

[Esker-pades]

We are keeping around a hundred and twenty five miles of track open for the sake of around a hundred and twenty five passengers per day.

If I'm getting you tone correctly, you are proposing closing the line north of Tain.

Firstly, how much money would this save? Money would be saved on maintanence and day-to-day running, but a significant amount would be spent on closure and providing alternative transport. (Buses.) Also, don't forget that the capacity of a bus is 50% or less that of a 158, meaning that one would need at least 8 additional services in each direction. As I have said on either this or another thread, there would also be a need to improve road infrastructure north of Helmsdale and the provision of actual roads to some stations. This all costs money and nullifies any savings.

Secondly, if you propose closing the line and not providing any additional public transport then you a ignoring the needs of a large area of the country. The impact on people's lives would be significantly detrimental.

Thirdly, the islands further north would also feel the adverse effects due to the ferry connections that the railway provides for services to/from Scrabster.

Fourthly, it has been proven that if one invests money, the patronage of the line increases. When service levels were improved, patronage doubled. Currently, the patronage is falling because of serious reliability issues that lead to frequent cancellations and significant delays until a few months ago.

Finally, 125 people per day is perfectly reasonable for the level of service provided.

 

[geoffk]

On my return journey from Wick last Saturday, I noted that the CIS at Georgemas Junction showed the following -
“1st 1618 Inverness, 2nd 1645 Inverness”.

This was strictly correct but misleading as both refer to the same train making two visits, before and after its trip to Thurso and back. A more useful version would have been “1st 1618 Thurso, 2nd 1645 Inverness” but I suppose these are generated automatically from a database and cannot be altered manually. This must happen whenever a train calls at the same station twice but I'm struggling to think of another example. Any ideas? I thought it used to happen at Haymarket.

I'm fairly sure that a York - Harrogate - Leeds train is shown on the CIS at York as going to Burley Park, and likewise Poppleton at Leeds, so there must be a manual intervention, but this is a different situation and is getting off the subject.

 

[class26]

If I'm getting you tone correctly, you are proposing closing the line north of Tain.

Firstly, how much money would this save? Money would be saved on maintanence and day-to-day running, but a significant amount would be spent on closure and providing alternative transport. (Buses.) Also, don't forget that the capacity of a bus is 50% or less that of a 158, meaning that one would need at least 8 additional services in each direction. As I have said on either this or another thread, there would also be a need to improve road infrastructure north of Helmsdale and the provision of actual roads to some stations. This all costs money and nullifies any savings.

Secondly, if you propose closing the line and not providing any additional public transport then you a ignoring the needs of a large area of the country. The impact on people's lives would be significantly detrimental.

Thirdly, the islands further north would also feel the adverse effects due to the ferry connections that the railway provides for services to/from Scrabster.

Fourthly, it has been proven that if one invests money, the patronage of the line increases. When service levels were improved, patronage doubled. Currently, the patronage is falling because of serious reliability issues that lead to frequent cancellations and significant delays until a few months ago.

Finally, 125 people per day is perfectly reasonable for the level of service provided.

OK, this is a wild idea but given the recent weather as global worming takes effect perhaps there will be a drift of population northwards over the years and then at last this line will come into its own, even a Dornoch crossing, Even French wine makers are buying up land in Kent and Sussex so there is a movement north !

 

[Southsider]

Considering Briech is being kept, I can't see any prospect of closures on the FNL.

 

[Highland37]

OK, this is a wild idea but given the recent weather as global worming takes effect perhaps there will be a drift of population northwards over the years and then at last this line will come into its own, even a Dornoch crossing, Even French wine makers are buying up land in Kent and Sussex so there is a movement north !

I like your theory but it's unlikely as land is a premium. Population has been held down, held back, whatever words you want to use, by the land ownership in Scotland as whilst there is lots and lots of land to build on, none of it is available. This is why there are lots of people living in caravans and temporary accommodation in the Highlands.

I note that the name calling has started above but also note the macro level, one size fits all, generalisations by people. HS2 is justified on capacity and economic arguments but it will actively take money out of Caithness, for example. But I am in favour of it despite having no faith at all in the Government to deliver it on budget or on time.

A quick glance across the north sea shows a much more enlightened attitude to peripheral communities.

 

[haggishunter]

It strikes me a bit arrogant for posters based in England to be calling for lines in rural Northern Scotland to be closed. Fortunately for users of the lines and the Highland communities that rely and benefit from them, the Scottish Government and Parliament has the say over the future of these lines, not Westminster anymore. Of course in the past Westminster had ideas of closing every line North of Perth.

That would have been catastrophic, a large part of the economic growth and stabilisation of and then subsequent growth in the population of the North of Scotland wouldn't have happened. Likely if that sort of closures had happened, the A9 upgrade in the 70s and early 80s might not have happened either and depopulation of the Highlands would have continued.

Of course low population density is part of the reason for low use figures, and the population of Highland Scotland today is barely over 50% of what it was in the early 1700s. Usage is boosted by tourism and the additional economic activity that occurs from the multiplier effect of tourism spend is economically very important. Axe the rural Highland and West Highland Lines and the economic and social damage would far outweigh the savings.

As for replacing north of Tain with a bus, you could never provide a service on the road that got close to match the comfort of the train, not without massive further investment in the A9. I don't go up there very often, but journey time on the train needs to be factored against the fact it can be constructively used time vs sitting at a wheel driving on the A9, I find between 3 and the on-train WiFi it's possible to work online over much of the route and can sit back have a coffee or something stronger.

However buses could be used to extend the reach, Lairg has long served as a rail head for NW Sutherland. Perhaps a fully integrated very high end coach service, perhaps even branded as ScotRail with through ticketing could grow usage, business and tourism with a loop from Lairg round the NW via the A838 and A836 to/from Thurso. The success of the NC500 it shows there is certainly opportunities! The Durness bus does link in at Larig, but its a small vehicle and not that well known about.

 

[geoffk]

There is also the freight traffic - pipes for the oil industry, eight wagons of which I saw at Georgemas Jn - and nuclear waste from Dounreay. Sadly the Lairg oil traffic was lost although the sidings are still there.

 

[yorksrob]

Well loading a handful of two car units a day is not really a great achievement or a resounding endorsement of the usefulness of the service.



Inverness to THurso by rail takes variously 3hr38-4h00 depending on the service.
The X99 bus Inverness to Thurso takes approximately 3hr28 according to the published timetable.

And no, the bus doesn't serve everywhere the railway does, the bus serves place where people actually live.
(There is even a bus service in Lairg that could easily be extended to Tain to connect with the X99)

Irrelevant, the stations that generate substantial quantities of traffic are ones served both by the bus and the railway.
Just because the railway has a terrible routing should not be counted against the bus - because there is not going to be money available to correct the mistake of the railway's builders.


Between Helmsdale and Georgemas Junction (the nearest station to Halkirk) the stations are:
Kildonan - 76 passengers
Kinbrace - 464 passengers
Forsinard - 2160 passengers
Altnabraec - 356 passengers
Scotscalder - 200 passengers.

So apart from possibly Forsinard the stations will produce one or so passengers per day on average.
Even Forsinard only manages a half dozen.

And there is a road between Helmsdale and Forsinard so if the loss of Forsinard is such a disaster you could have an Optare Solo run up and down between those villages and connect to the X99.

But even so when you can only produce 3200 passengers per year over many miles of track, there is something of an issue.


Buses cover Tain to Inverness 25 minutes faster than the railway can.
50 minutes versus ~76.

EDIT:

To make it clear, I am not anti railway as such.
But as it stands the railway really doesn't justify the resources required to keep it open.

It needs a journey time that is easily faster than the coach to be worthwhile at all.

Sub 3 hours or we might as well go home.
Perhaps tilting units or somesuch, and closing or gating every level crossing.

As long as those stations that generate substantial traffic, generate substantial traffic, all other points in this post are irrelevant.

 

[Highland37]

One of the concerning things about this post is that where railways have the advantage (quality, ambience, serving of many destinations that have no other service), there are people actively arguing against the railway.

So the question must arise for those saying it's too expensive - where is the bar set? Does the HML make it over? West Highland Line or Mallaig (dead in the winter) or is it a purely profit and loss scenario? And does a line have to demonstrate whatever the chosen characteristic is 100% of the time, some of the time or none of the time. A lot of vague ideas on this thread.

 

[causton]

On my return journey from Wick last Saturday, I noted that the CIS at Georgemas Junction showed the following -
“1st 1618 Inverness, 2nd 1645 Inverness”.

This was strictly correct but misleading as both refer to the same train making two visits, before and after its trip to Thurso and back. A more useful version would have been “1st 1618 Thurso, 2nd 1645 Inverness” but I suppose these are generated automatically from a database and cannot be altered manually. This must happen whenever a train calls at the same station twice but I'm struggling to think of another example. Any ideas? I thought it used to happen at Haymarket.

I'm fairly sure that a York - Harrogate - Leeds train is shown on the CIS at York as going to Burley Park, and likewise Poppleton at Leeds, so there must be a manual intervention, but this is a different situation and is getting off the subject.

It is a bit getting off the subject, but you can add a false destination to trains such as circular or slower services like you said.
However it depends, if someone turns up at 1600 for Inverness, it's not as if they will get there any later by getting on the train at 1618!
If it was cold, windy, rainy... (in this weather I wish it was!) - it might stop someone freezing on a platform for half an hour. It does them no harm to get on the train earlier if they are already at the station, and if they are reading the board we can assume that they are

 

[Esker-pades]

It is a bit getting off the subject, but you can add a false destination to trains such as circular or slower services like you said.
However it depends, if someone turns up at 1600 for Inverness, it's not as if they will get there any later by getting on the train at 1618!
If it was cold, windy, rainy... (in this weather I wish it was!) - it might stop someone freezing on a platform for half an hour. It does them no harm to get on the train earlier if they are already at the station, and if they are reading the board we can assume that they are

I'm not sure if the easements allow such a double back. There are easements which allow Wick passengers to travel via Thurso so they don't have to get off the train, but if one has a Georgemas Junction to Inverness ticket, I done think it would be valid up to Thurso and back.

 

[Flying Phil]

This is an interesting thread covering many differing aspects of rural railways - however, was one of the reasons for this Far North railway being to help supply Scapa Flow and other military bases? Thus the railway has/had a significant strategic value.

 

[DarloRich]

If I'm getting you tone correctly, you are proposing closing the line north of Tain.

It strikes me a bit arrogant for posters based in England to be calling for lines in rural Northern Scotland to be closed.

No one is suggesting the line close. Please out away the anti Scottish conspiracy hat! I am simply saying that IF someone were to propose such a line today it would not be built. The business case ( that is business case in the real world not the RUK fantasy world) simply would not meet any objective test associated with spending public money.

however, was one of the reasons for this Far North railway being to help supply Scapa Flow and other military bases? Thus the railway has/had a significant strategic value.

Agreed - when built. Scapa Flow was the main Royal Navy fleet anchorage. Today it is not.

 

[Esker-pades]

No one is suggesting the line close. Please out away the anti Scottish conspiracy hat! I am simply saying that IF someone were to propose such a line today it would not be built. The business case ( that is business case in the real world not the RUK fantasy world) simply would not meet any objective test associated with spending public money.

Agreed - when built. Scapa Flow was the main Royal Navy fleet anchorage. Today it is not.

Possibly not over the current route, but a more direct route to Wick, Thurso and Scrabster could be argued to benefit much more people than just Highlands residents (increased tourism, ferry connections at Scrabster etc.) meaning that there is a better case than one might think.

 

[DarloRich]

Possibly not over the current route, but a more direct route to Wick, Thurso and Scrabster could be argued to benefit much more people than just Highlands residents (increase tourism, ferry connections at Scrabster etc.) meaning that there is a better case than one might think.

No it couldn't, at least not to a level that would justify the investment.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

This is an interesting thread covering many differing aspects of rural railways - however, was one of the reasons for this Far North railway being to help supply Scapa Flow and other military bases? Thus the railway has/had a significant strategic value.

Regrettably we now no longer have a fleet to defend the Empire and the North Sea , fuelled by best Welsh coal moved in series of Jellico specials. (rather inefficiently one gathers - but there we are..)

 

[mushroomchow]

In terms of economics, something that frustrates me about reopening schemes, but which is relevant to net loss-making routes like the FNL, is the benefit to the wider economy through the impact of visitors to that area. For too long, economic considerations for a route's viability have blindly ignored external impacts the route may have e.g. jobs created, GVA and the like - which is crazy, given these are used as justification for pretty much all other infrastructure investments (roads, utilities, housing etc.)

I travelled to Thurso by train a few years ago and enjoyed my stay. The hotel I was in was clearly full of passengers who had travelled by train. You could see the town relies entirely on their custom. Aside from the tourists, let's be honest - there's sod-all going for the Far North economically apart from the odd pipeline. And, realistically, very very few people would bother to visit by road with the exception of a handful travelling to John 'O Groats. I imagine, too, that there would be a knock-on effect, though less so, on visitors to the northern islands from a FNL closure.

On top of that, the route absolutely IS a lifeline for locals and it would be politically unacceptable to close it. Case in point, an oil rig worker got on the train at Invergordon during our trip after a few weeks at sea (a great fella with an Alsatian who bought everybody chocolate then proceeded to get hammered by ordering a dram every time the trolley came by!) travelling home to Thurso. He simply wouldn't be able to do his job without the railway, and I'm sure there are many others like him who would be sat on the dole in Wick, Thurso and so forth without the FNL.

 

[DarloRich]

In terms of economics, something that frustrates me about reopening schemes, but which is relevant to net loss-making routes like the FNL, is the benefit to the wider economy through the impact of visitors to that area.

ok - how do you measure that in monetary terms? What happens when your widely optimistic claims for tourists are delivered? That is one of your main benefits failed immediately meaning the money was wasted. Business case documents do not work on nebulous ideas or gut feels. They work on hard numbers.

On top of that, the route absolutely IS a lifeline for locals and it would be politically unacceptable to close it. Case in point, an oil rig worker got on the train at Invergordon during our trip after a few weeks at sea (a great fella with an Alsatian who bought everybody chocolate then proceeded to get hammered by ordering a dram every time the trolley came by!) travelling home to Thurso. He simply wouldn't be able to do his job without the railway, and I'm sure there are many others like him who would be sat on the dole in Wick, Thurso and so forth without the FNL.

oh i dont know - he could drive straight up the A9............................

 

[DuncanS]

And, realistically, very very few people would bother to visit by road with the exception of a handful travelling to John 'O Groats.

Ah the problem of a non-local not knowing anything about the local economy or local attractions.

hint - Google, North Coast 500

 

[ChiefPlanner]

For the record - and I have no confirmation of this - the LMS actually considered closing pretty much the whole Network north of Dingwall in the mid 1930's , WW2 obviously stopped this scenario.

Anyway - this is all a matter for Scottish decision making.