EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[EM2]

No. I want the UK to negotiate trade agreements with like minded countries, including the EU, when its mindset changes from punishing the UK for having the temerity to leave the club.

Initially it will be difficult because the club rules forbid us from signing new agreements while still a member, and of course we have always played by the rules, much to our disadvantage. I would like to believe that, behind the scenes, we are talking to like minded countries, but given the track record of our remainer PM, I have my doubts.

And how long will this take?
Hint:
A very, very long time...(although it apparently helps that we have a monarch!)
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/07/how-long-do-trade-deals-take-after-brexit/

Back in April, President Barack Obama warned it could take the United Kingdom up to 10 years to negotiate trade deals with the US and that it would be at the “back of the queue” if it left the European Union.

Now that Britain has voted Brexit, the UK government needs to renegotiate deals with the EU – and the bloc’s trading partners, including the United States. That’s over 50 countries.

Trade deals have a reputation for being slow, drawn-out affairs – Canada took seven years to strike its agreement with the EU.

So how long would a US-UK free trade deal really take? Perhaps data from previous US agreements could offer an insight.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) has crunched the numbers on how long it has taken the US to agree 20 bilateral trade deals.

The answer? One and a half years, on average. And more than three and a half years to get to the implementation stage.

Negotiations with Jordan – the first Arab nation to have a free trade agreement with the US – took just four months, and the deal was implemented in a year and a half.

At the other end of the scale is Panama. This deal took more than three years to agree and eight and a half years from launch to implementation. Negotiations were kicked off by former President George W Bush and concluded by President Obama. The hold-up was due to concerns about Panama’s labour practices and tax transparency, according to PIIE.

How to negotiate a faster deal

Based on its sample of 20 deals, the institute identifies two factors that can speed up the negotiation process: a monarch and an election year.

Four of the agreements took less than a year, three of which were with countries with monarchies: Bahrain, Jordan, and Oman.

PIIE estimates that having a monarch cuts the time it takes to negotiate by about half.

Agreements signed during a US presidential election year take about 40% less time than deals struck at other times. And more than half of US agreements were signed in election years.

“This makes sense: negotiating presidents want to close agreements that they started, which will be part of their legacy,” say the authors, Caroline Freund and Christine McDaniel.

What about multilateral deals?

It's one of the world's biggest trade deals and covers 40% of the global economy, so it's not surprising that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has taken longer to negotiate than other US free trade agreements.

Talks began in 2008 and the agreement was signed by 12 countries earlier this year, but ratification and implementation are thought to be unlikely before President Obama leaves office.

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) currently being negotiated between the US and the EU would become the world’s largest trade agreement, covering 45% of global GDP.

This was the trade deal that Obama was talking about when he said Britain would go to “the back of the queue”.

 

[furnessvale]

And how long will this take?
Hint:
A very, very long time...(although it apparently helps that we have a monarch!)

So the attitude of remainers is that no matter how bad it gets, we must remain in the EU because it is too late now to do anything about it it.

Not for me. I prefer some pain now rather than the agony which will be inflicted as the whole EU project hits the rocks. First Greece. Expect Spain and Italy next, then the domino effect as East European countries up their demands for more subsidy.

 

[trash80]

Maybe remainers don't share your view that the EU is collapsing or will so. Its a common theme from right wingers in the likes of the Telegraph for years though isn't necessarily going to happen.

 

[furnessvale]

Maybe remainers don't share your view that the EU is collapsing or will so. Its a common theme from right wingers in the likes of the Telegraph for years though isn't necessarily going to happen.

Fair enough. Only time will tell.

 

[EM2]

So the attitude of remainers is that no matter how bad it gets, we must remain in the EU because it is too late now to do anything about it it.

I can't say for others, but for this remainer, the attitude is that the UK electorate should at least have had some idea what the worst case scenario of life outside the EU might mean, *before* casting a vote.
And if you're still happy to risk that, well so be it.

Not for me. I prefer some pain now rather than the agony which will be inflicted as the whole EU project hits the rocks. First Greece. Expect Spain and Italy next, then the domino effect as East European countries up their demands for more subsidy.

But Greece hasn't left. And doesn't look likely to any time soon.

 

[fowler9]

No. I want the UK to negotiate trade agreements with like minded countries, including the EU, when its mindset changes from punishing the UK for having the temerity to leave the club.

Initially it will be difficult because the club rules forbid us from signing new agreements while still a member, and of course we have always played by the rules, much to our disadvantage. I would like to believe that, behind the scenes, we are talking to like minded countries, but given the track record of our remainer PM, I have my doubts.

Remind me again how the UK is being punished.

 

[Howardh]

No. I want the UK to negotiate trade agreements with like minded countries, including the EU, when its mindset changes from punishing the UK for having the temerity to leave the club.

Initially it will be difficult because the club rules forbid us from signing new agreements while still a member, and of course we have always played by the rules, much to our disadvantage. I would like to believe that, behind the scenes, we are talking to like minded countries, but given the track record of our remainer PM, I have my doubts.

Can you actually name some? Canada and Australia are much smaller in population compared to us and wayyy smaller than the EU, the US will only trade if it benefits them (America First and all that) but to be frank, we trade a hell of a lot with non-EU countries as it is, just look at the labels around your house. China...Japan...Korea...

So if we look towards China, India, Japan, Far east etc - this is my question to you. what can we sell to them which is cheaper/better than they can make themselves? Clearly there are key industries such as pharmacuticals, farm wachinery and aircraft parts which is not to be sniffed at - but we already do anyway.

So where's the extra coming from, and I mean £bn's worth of extra??

 

[DerekC]

Trying to be objective about all this, it's clear that on the one hand Brexit will deliver some reduction in immigration, but nothing else. On the other we will all be poorer for 20 years or so and we run a strong risk of restarting the Irish troubles. The bureaucracy and sovereignty issues are an illusion. That's it.

 

[Bromley boy]

Over which we had a veto.

Ha!

Can I remind you of the discussion a few pages back about the passage of the Lisbon treaty.

That debacle shows exactly how little respect the EU has for vetoes. It just arrogantly asks the same question again and again until the right answer is delivered.

 

[fowler9]

Ha!

Can I remind you of the discussion a few pages back about the passage of the Lisbon treaty.

That debacle shows exactly how little respect the EU has for vetoes. It just arrogantly asks the same question again and again until the right answer is delivered.

Surely it isn't the exact same question that is asked, alternatives are offered until an agreement is reached? Surely that is democracy? If it is just on a one off vote then as of last year we leave the EU, the Good Friday Agreement is down the toilet, we have a hard border with the Republic Of Ireland and then go to WTO trading rules.

 

[AlterEgo]

BBC newsflash suggesting a deal has been agreed.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Not for me. I prefer some pain now rather than the agony which will be inflicted as the whole EU project hits the rocks. First Greece. Expect Spain and Italy next, then the domino effect as East European countries up their demands for more subsidy.

Would you consider that "pain" to be acceptable if people start losing their jobs?

 

[Domh245]

BBC newsflash suggesting a deal has been agreed.

And now the hard part begins...

 

[EM2]

Ha!

Can I remind you of the discussion a few pages back about the passage of the Lisbon treaty.

That debacle shows exactly how little respect the EU has for vetoes. It just arrogantly asks the same question again and again until the right answer is delivered.

You did see the follow-up quote that I posted?
And that came from Cameron's 'tail-between-his-legs' negotiations.

 

[thejuggler]

Sounds like enough fudge to keep Thorntons in business, which is what negotiations always end up being.

However it looks very much like a can has been kicked and all we have is an agreement to agree.

"May explained that she wanted the future free trade deal with the EU to be all-encompassing for the whole of the UK, including Northern Ireland.

The PM said that “if that is not the case, we will look to” agreeing a cross-border solution that recognised the “specific circumstances of Northern Ireland” and its “unique” role as the only land border between the UK and the EU."

So she wants something we already have. If she doesn’t manage that she wants a one off agreement. How does no border curtail freedom of movement?

 

[Howardh]

So - if the Irish Border is staying open, that means we can't revert to WTO rules so it's no hard Brexit.

So now the EU can demand anything and everything and we will virtually have to accept it, sure there'll be bits and pieces where we can go our own way, but if the border's open then nothing can get into the EU that isn't regulated by them - so (for example) those US chickens covered in chlorine might well not be allowed into the UK in the first place to stop them getting into the EU.

So as a commentator said this morning, in the CU and SM in everything but name, and even worse - £50bn cost no say at the end of it.

Well done Brexit, five stars!!

EDIT I see that that nice Mr. Farage (and the whole of leave.eu) is a tad displeased. Good. You can't have a second referendum because you don't want one, you don't have an answer to the border problem anyway. Now go away and take your pension with you.

 

[pemma]

Not for me. I prefer some pain now rather than the agony which will be inflicted as the whole EU project hits the rocks. First Greece. Expect Spain and Italy next, then the domino effect as East European countries up their demands for more subsidy.

What are you going on about? Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal all ran in to serious financial problems in recent years but despite that the Euro stayed stronger than the Pound as we didn't have stronger countries to soften the blow of our own financial problems.

The Greeks certainly don't like having German style fiscal policies, which the EU tries to enforce on them so they can afford to pay back money they loaned for schemes like the Athens metro. However, UK voters seem to prefer governments who have a good fiscal plan so what the EU might ask for is what we would do anyway.

 

[pemma]

So as a commentator said this morning, in the CU and SM in everything but name, and even worse - £50bn cost no say at the end of it.

Well done Brexit, five stars!!

Wait now the Lib Dems have been saying the public needs a chance to reject any Brexit deal but the Brexiteers called that an attack on democracy.

This strikes me as a repeat of the English Democrats starting up a petition saying a 55% threshold is needed in the referendum for one side to win because they expected Remain to win with a very small majority but then trying to get the petition taken down when Leave won with 51.8% of the votes.

 

[pemma]

According to R4's Today program the deal struck does not actually solve the Irish border issue. It includes a fallback position of staying in the Single Market and Customs Union if no agreement is reached.

 

[Moonshot]

What are you going on about? Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal all ran in to serious financial problems in recent years but despite that the Euro stayed stronger than the Pound as we didn't have stronger countries to soften the blow of our own financial problems.

The Greeks certainly don't like having German style fiscal policies, which the EU tries to enforce on them so they can afford to pay back money they loaned for schemes like the Athens metro. However, UK voters seem to prefer governments who have a good fiscal plan so what the EU might ask for is what we would do anyway.

A lot of truth in that......UK tends to keep a tight budget even if it includes some austerity measures.....the likes of Greece seem to like a credit card which someone else is paying for.

 

[Howardh]

According to R4's Today program the deal struck does not actually solve the Irish border issue. It includes a fallback position of staying in the Single Market and Customs Union if no agreement is reached.

Yes, I caught something like that on Sky news. Let's hope there's no agreement then!

But right now the "no deal hard Brexit" option is dead in the glorious blue waters.

 

[Moonshot]

Yes, I caught something like that on Sky news. Let's hope there's no agreement then!

But right now the "no deal hard Brexit" option is dead in the glorious blue waters.

To be fair, today is a staging post which has cleared up a few things....one of which was guarenteeing the rights of both EU citizens already here and those expats living in the likes of Spain.

 

[AlterEgo]

Alternative headline, Britain does pretty much what the EU and Ireland want.

How’s your sovereignty?

 

[Howardh]

Alternative headline, Britain does pretty much what the EU and Ireland want.

How’s your sovereignty?

After the divorce, one moves in next door and cuts a hole through the wall to the other....

All we need now is a new name for the customs union and single market to convince the Brexiters we have left that. The European Economic Area Free Trade Agreement. We could call it EFTA or EEA; or combine the two and call it the European Union.

 

[trash80]

A lot of truth in that......UK tends to keep a tight budget even if it includes some austerity measures.....the likes of Greece seem to like a credit card which someone else is paying for.

Strange definition of the truth. UK keeping a tight budget? When was that then?

 

[dgl]

All we need now is a new name for the customs union and single market to convince the Brexiters we have left that. The European Economic Area Free Trade Agreement. We could call it EFTA or EEA; or combine the two and call it the European Union.

call it the 'New* UK Union Of Europe'.

*it's really just the EU but the UK want to say they are not part of us even though in reality they are.

 

[AM9]

I have a certain grudging respect for Teresa May. She made (and continues to make) bold statements about the UK leaving both the CU and the SM despite being a remainer herself and irritating most other remainers. Her early stance kept the 'brextremists' aligned to government policy, preventing a mutiny. Gradually, a much softer exit from the EU has evolved as the only sane way ahead yet the process has been so wrapped up in more issues than could imagine that the leavers have broadly been kept very quiet. Helped by the moral need for a general election should they cause a showdown, the loudest mouths seem to have been gagged. Words from those leavers that were 'available for interview' today, seem to be of guarded approval, some even saying that it's what they wanted anyway.
Well, the routes ahead have now been narrowed down to just a few, all pointing in a fairly soft exit, so most of the hare brained macho nonsense of just random criticism of the EU and calls for taking back control seem to have been successfully gagged. That's some sort of a result, even to a remainer.

 

[Howardh]

It begs the question (again) - did Theresa May deliberately throw the election? If she HAD an increased majority with far more Tory MP's then she may have paradoxically strengthened the hand of the hard-liners, but with her non-existent majority the hard liners would have to bottle it or face putting themselves up for leader - which they ran away from when it was up for grabs - or another election and face a wipe-out by a Labour/SNP pact.

So possibly Cameron and May have been utterly brilliant - Cameron for calling a referendum that leave could never "win" just to get Farage off their backside, and May for playing it just right *No deal is better than..." frightening the soft Brexiters, probably in the majority now, from voting for them in June AND throwing in the social care horror just to make sure.

 

[pemma]

call it the 'New* UK Union Of Europe'.

*it's really just the EU but the UK want to say they are not part of us even though in reality they are.

It sounds like it could be a downgrade of membership e.g. going from Gold to Bronze membership, which removes rights both for the UK and EU e.g. the UK won't be able to vote on EU laws, while the EU will have less influence over the UK. Although, Farage should still be pleased he kept going on about a new higher level of membership that the UK could be forced to accept which could be called Platinum membership.

 

[Moonshot]

It sounds like it could be a downgrade of membership e.g. going from Gold to Bronze membership, which removes rights both for the UK and EU e.g. the UK won't be able to vote on EU laws, while the EU will have less influence over the UK. Although, Farage should still be pleased he kept going on about a new higher level of membership that the UK could be forced to accept which could be called Platinum membership.

thats how it seems to me as well