EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[Bromley boy]

One person. One vote.

One idiot. One opinion.

And, despite being absolutely ****ing irrelevant, you know my tax status and property holdings do you? Whoop-de-do that you've owned property and paid higher rate tax since your early twenties. Sense of entitlement much? We have universal suffrage in this country. The UK is not a plutocracy. Mind you, the last two governments have all the hallmarks of a kakistocracy.

Lefty moan? Voted Labour nationally once. Locally just once too. Made some bad voting choices down the years too. Don't have foresight or a working crystal ball.

But yes. Brexit is wholly down to the Tories. They've sold the country down the river.

The smileys do not disguise your vitriol. Despicable.

Triggered!

Considerably Richer Than You - Harry Enfield and Chums - BBC

I find your tax receipts comment odious. What about compassion, care for others? This is the thinking that has the homeless population growing, multi-day waits for ambulances, a crumbling NHS, failing social care. And yet we continue to p!ss more money up the wall in search of some 1950s nationalistic ideal, supported by many who voted as a protest due to immigration or have a comfortable life and are insulated from the harsh realities of a margin life that is about to get a lot harsher when Brexit really bites.

I've given up on this thread - both sides are entrenched, I may pop back in a couple of years if Brexit happens to see if we're all feeling the same.

A tongue in cheek approach is best adopted for enjoyment of this part of the forum.

Re. your last comment, 100% agreed.

 

[mmh]

I notice Easyjet aren't yet selling any flights for post-Brexit dates, they are expected to put them on sale in October.

It's a fair point that flight times do change, yet as far as I can remember - even booking well in advance - I have only had one flight changed, and that was a couple of hours. But there must be a greater risk of changes if a deal's late or even more if there isn't one. I have heard that if there's no deal and emergency plan will be put in place - whether that means they can run their schedule as planned I don't know.

Ironically my first scheduled break is in June to Gibraltar for some hockey, interesting that the company I should be flying with (Easyjet) hasn't a timetable yet as you mention!!

Which is what they do every year, for example two years ago I was given almost a year's notice for a friend's 60th birthday party do they were having in Jersey. The party was at the end of April, Easyjet tickets went on sale in October. British Airways were already selling tickets. They're not planning on going out of business in March, it's complete coincidence and nothing to do with Brexit.

 

[bnm]

Triggered!

Eh???

 

[Howardh]

Which is what they do every year, for example two years ago I was given almost a year's notice for a friend's 60th birthday party do they were having in Jersey. The party was at the end of April, Easyjet tickets went on sale in October. British Airways were already selling tickets. They're not planning on going out of business in March, it's complete coincidence and nothing to do with Brexit.

Fine, if one looks at the wider issue, late April/early May we have three bank holidays and many will combine those with their annual leave to get some decent early summer sun. Aren't easyjet and the like missing a trick by not having their timetable ready and taking early bookings? The hotels are ready...just seems a bit daft leaving it so late when they could be getting in the readies right now. Brexit might be holding them back...but if flights/slots are assured, then isn't this a bit of an own-goal??

 

[HSTEd]

Fine, if one looks at the wider issue, late April/early May we have three bank holidays and many will combine those with their annual leave to get some decent early summer sun. Aren't easyjet and the like missing a trick by not having their timetable ready and taking early bookings? The hotels are ready...just seems a bit daft leaving it so late when they could be getting in the readies right now. Brexit might be holding them back...but if flights/slots are assured, then isn't this a bit of an own-goal??

Low cost airlines like to change routes rapidly in response to variations in demand.

They won't even know if they will be running those routes (for purely commercial reasons) that far in advance.

 

[Howardh]

Low cost airlines like to change routes rapidly in response to variations in demand.

They won't even know if they will be running those routes (for purely commercial reasons) that far in advance.

I think they could rely on filling their planes to Ibiza, Mallorca, menorca and the Costas when it's a huge holiday period!! Mind you, back to my earlier point, will people (rightly or wrongly) baulk from booking so far ahead r/e Brexit uncertainty?

 

[mmh]

Fine, if one looks at the wider issue, late April/early May we have three bank holidays and many will combine those with their annual leave to get some decent early summer sun. Aren't easyjet and the like missing a trick by not having their timetable ready and taking early bookings? The hotels are ready...just seems a bit daft leaving it so late when they could be getting in the readies right now.

This is hardly an un-savvy company we're talking about. For whatever reasons, they've decided their summer season starts in April and they start selling it in October. And that fits completely with what people do. They book their summer holidays in the autumn and winter. That's when all the advertising happens. Very few people are going to be booking short haul flights a year in advance.

Brexit might be holding them back...but if flights/slots are assured, then isn't this a bit of an own-goal??

Sigh, this is an example of why leavers on here tend to default to a mickey-taking position with remainers. You agreed that it's coincidental to Brexit yet instantly can't help going back to saying it might be down to Brexit, after all, everything is, right?

I give up.

 

[HSTEd]

I think they could rely on filling their planes to Ibiza, Mallorca, menorca and the Costas when it's a huge holiday period!! Mind you, back to my earlier point, will people (rightly or wrongly) baulk from booking so far ahead r/e Brexit uncertainty?

Is it not still the caset hat most flights to those places are charters effectively run ad hoc?
ie. they won't know precisely how many planes they will actually be running until soon before because the package people only book the flights they know they can fill.

 

[bramling]

Aha, you’ve swum up from the depths again

Since you mention it, yes! I’ve owned my own home since I was 24 (bought by the sweat of my brow, with no help from the folks) and I’ve paid 40% tax since I was 22...

10+ years on I might even have bought another home since and be paying tax on the rental income...

Based on tax receipts I think that qualifies me to have a bigger say than you, don’t you think?!

A Brexit house price dip will hit me far harder than it hits you...

So come on! Let’s hear your great big lefty moan about how badly Brexit affects you, how dreadful it all is, how it’s all down to the Tories/someone else’s fault etc. (although, I note you’ve also admited you voted for it yourself )

Thinking back over the last few years, one issue which keeps being raised again and again as important to voters - especially younger ones - is how house prices are unaffordable and “too high” [*]. So a dip in house prices might not be such a bad thing at all for some. I say that as a homeowner, albeit one who doesn’t really care what my place is worth as I’ve no intention of leaving it.

[* from an economics point of view there is of course no such thing as too high, price is simply an outcome of demand versus supply, so to make house prices come down we need to either increase supply or decrease demand. The big difficulty with the former is that parts of Britain are simply running out of room to easily build housing].

 

[bnm]

From the BBC:

Grand National 'could be hit by no deal Brexit' warns racing group

Next year's Grand National could look very different if the UK leaves the European Union without a deal, the British Horseracing Authority warns.

Crashing out of the EU would potentially have a huge impact on Irish trainers and Irish horses.

And it could see the end of the Tripartite Agreement system which allows horses to be easily moved between the UK, France and Ireland.

Eight Irish-trained horses have won the Grand National since 1999.

That includes this year's winner Tiger Roll, which is stabled in County Meath, but has triumphed at the Cheltenham Festival as well as as Aintree.

Ross Hamilton from the BHA told Radio 5live's Wake Up To Money Business Of Sport: "If the position was that the UK Government chose to immediately put up borders and tariffs then would make it extremely difficult for thoroughbreds to move.

"It would only be about a month ahead of the Grand National in 2019, which would be quite an impact, a threat to potential Irish horses' participation in the race, Irish jockeys being able to compete in races over here if it was a really hard, no-deal Brexit."

Preparations

He added that, in that position, the main issue for Irish trainers would be whether they were "comfortable" taking their horses over to the UK and being sure they get them back home again after the race.

But the BHA did say it has been working hard on its preparations for Brexit, examining the potential implications of all scenarios and taking preparatory action.

It even went so far as to speak to the Government before the referendum took place.

Mr Hamilton added that, based what has already been released in the Brexit papers, the BHA believes the Government wants to maintain the status quo "as far as possible after Brexit".

"The big question will be - and this is a matter for our colleagues in Ireland and France to be representing to their own governments and the Commission - is whether the Commission chooses to reciprocate."

If there were to be no deal, the BHA is prepared to put in place a number of measures, he added.

"We do get horses from further afield than France and Ireland to compete in our races and we have an established procedure in place to deal with those countries."

A positive outcome of Brexit. Anything that disrupts a 'sport' which results in the deaths of 160 competitors a year is a good thing.

 

[Tracked]

From the BBC:



A positive outcome of Brexit. Anything that disrupts a 'sport' which results in the deaths of 160 competitors a year is a good thing.

So next year, it's going to be like this, but possibly without the coconuts (Swallows permitting)?

 

[pemma]

Low cost airlines like to change routes rapidly in response to variations in demand.

They won't even know if they will be running those routes (for purely commercial reasons) that far in advance.

According to Easyjet's website they'll release late summer and autumn flights for 2019 just a week after they release the late Spring and early Summer flights.

 

[AlterEgo]

Is it not still the caset hat most flights to those places are charters effectively run ad hoc?
ie. they won't know precisely how many planes they will actually be running until soon before because the package people only book the flights they know they can fill.

No. Those airlines now also sell scheduled tickets. Ad hoc flights are in a significant minority and are generally done by small specialist airlines.

 

[bnm]

Plenty of good brexit forecasts in the news this weekend.

A 10% reduction in GDP.

WTO deals with non-EU countries unlikely to be in place by March 2019.

Border checks may return in Ireland.

University R&D at risk of collapse.

Increase in costs to travel from the UK to Europe.


But.... blue passports.

 

[pemma]

But.... blue passports.

Just like the EU member of Croatia. The official colour of Scotland, who might choose to become independent post-Brexit.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Just like the EU member of Croatia. The official colour of Scotland, who might choose to become independent post-Brexit.

I think we'd want to differentiate ourselves from our new neighbours thanks!

 

[Bromley boy]

Plenty of good brexit forecasts in the news this weekend.

A 10% reduction in GDP.

WTO deals with non-EU countries unlikely to be in place by March 2019.

Border checks may return in Ireland.

University R&D at risk of collapse.

Increase in costs to travel from the UK to Europe.


But.... blue passports.

Perhaps you shouldn’t have voted for it then!

And these forecasts have proven wrong on many occasions in the past, and may well do so again.

Just like the EU member of Croatia. The official colour of Scotland, who might choose to become independent post-Brexit.

Let’s hope so.

 

[Bromley boy]

Thinking back over the last few years, one issue which keeps being raised again and again as important to voters - especially younger ones - is how house prices are unaffordable and “too high” [*]. So a dip in house prices might not be such a bad thing at all for some. I say that as a homeowner, albeit one who doesn’t really care what my place is worth as I’ve no intention of leaving it.

[* from an economics point of view there is of course no such thing as too high, price is simply an outcome of demand versus supply, so to make house prices come down we need to either increase supply or decrease demand. The big difficulty with the former is that parts of Britain are simply running out of room to easily build housing].

Very true.

Much of the current problem is that banks are a lot more stringent in terms of lending criteria than they were previously (a decade ago they were willing to lend 110% mortgages!). That adjustment isn’t necessarily a bad thing in itself, as the housing market previously resembled something of a Ponzi scheme (which is largely what caused the sub prime crash in the states).

You're also quite right that the housing shortage in the south east is fundamentally what is driving prices up (both freehold/leasehold purchase and rental prices). Not sure what the solution to that is, other than someone (who?!) building more “affordable” houses, the rise of “supercommuters”, and people increasingly working flexibly, not commuting every day etc. (potentially bad news for the railway!).

The problem for many prospective buyers clearly isn’t interest rates, which are at historic lows, it’s the inability to save up the large required deposits which are a function of high prices and restrictive lending multiples (often while paying rents higher than the mortgage payment would be on the equivalent property).

A decline in house prices would be (understandably) welcomed in some quarters, but would probably be bad news economically since it would kill the housing market at a stroke: you would never stretch to buy a property if you think it will be worth less in six months time - neither would any sane mortgage lender allow you to do so(!) - and would like point to wider economic malaise.

 

[NSEFAN]

A decline in house prices would be (understandably) welcomed in some quarters, but would probably be bad news economically since it would kill the housing market at a stroke: you would never stretch to buy a property if you think it will be worth less in six months time - neither would any sane mortgage lender allow you to do so(!) - and would like point to wider economic malaise.

That depends how bad the house price reduction is. Part of the problem is people buying houses as an investment, keeping the prices high. If there is a crash of some kind, it may still be cheaper for someone who wishes to stay put to buy a house rather than rent.

 

[bnm]

And these forecasts have proven wrong on many occasions in the past, and may well do so again.

Remind me. How many times has the UK faced leaving the EU in the past?

 

[Bromley boy]

That depends how bad the house price reduction is. Part of the problem is people buying houses as an investment, keeping the prices high. If there is a crash of some kind, it may still be cheaper for someone who wishes to stay put to buy a house rather than rent.

Anyone buying a property is buying it as an investment (even if they view it as somewhere to live). Just as anyone paying into a pension is (which is news to many on the railway who appear to believe that pensions are set in stone and have all their eggs in one basket...)

Stretching to buy a property which is then worth (say) £30k less in six months would be utter folly both for the borrower and the lender. The amount you owe (+interest) won’t have reduced by anything like that amount + mortgage interest is front loaded. You only start repaying the capital a long way into the term.

As a first time buyer, in a falling market, you will always be better off renting and riding it out!

 

[NSEFAN]

Anyone buying a property is buying it as an investment (even if they view it as somewhere to live). Just as anyone paying into a pension is (which is news to many on the railway who appear to believe that pensions are set in stone and have all their eggs in one basket...)

Stretching to buy a property which is then worth (say) £30k less in six months would be utter folly both for the borrower and the lender. The amount you owe (+interest) won’t have reduced by anything like that amount + mortgage interest is front loaded. You only start repaying the capital a long way into the term.

As a first time buyer, in a falling market, you will always be better off renting and riding it out!

You could still see the property as an investment, inasmuch that it works out cheaper than renting after enough time has elapsed. If once I've paid off my mortgage, I was to get not a penny back for whatever reason, I've still saved money over the course of the mortgage because the rent is more expensive. If property prices were to drop by, for example 25%, I wouldn't expect to see rent go down by a similar amount. If the barrier to entry to the housing market wasn't so high, then for more people the only reason to rent instead of buying would be because they have to move a lot for work and could do without the cost overhead and hassle of buying/selling.

The fact that property prices normally go up and people need somewhere to live makes it a fairly safe investment to live off in old age. But if too much property becomes used purely for investment then this buggers things up for new entrants to the market.

 

[bramling]

Very true.

Much of the current problem is that banks are a lot more stringent in terms of lending criteria than they were previously (a decade ago they were willing to lend 110% mortgages!). That adjustment isn’t necessarily a bad thing in itself, as the housing market previously resembled something of a Ponzi scheme (which is largely what caused the sub prime crash in the states).

You're also quite right that the housing shortage in the south east is fundamentally what is driving prices up (both freehold/leasehold purchase and rental prices). Not sure what the solution to that is, other than someone (who?!) building more “affordable” houses, the rise of “supercommuters”, and people increasingly working flexibly, not commuting every day etc. (potentially bad news for the railway!).

The problem for many prospective buyers clearly isn’t interest rates, which are at historic lows, it’s the inability to save up the large required deposits which are a function of high prices and restrictive lending multiples (often while paying rents higher than the mortgage payment would be on the equivalent property).

A decline in house prices would be (understandably) welcomed in some quarters, but would probably be bad news economically since it would kill the housing market at a stroke: you would never stretch to buy a property if you think it will be worth less in six months time - neither would any sane mortgage lender allow you to do so(!) - and would like point to wider economic malaise.

I can't really see prices falling, however if prices rise at a lesser rate than they would otherwise have done then in the grand scheme of things this would probably be a good thing. An exodus of EU citizens from the London area would quite possibly contribute to that.

 

[NSEFAN]

I can't really see prices falling, however if prices rise at a lesser rate than they would otherwise have done then in the grand scheme of things this would probably be a good thing. An exodus of EU citizens from the London area would quite possibly contribute to that.

On the other hand, most of those EU citizens will have been doing jobs which need doing. In most cases someone else will simply move to the area, either British or non-EU and the demand for housing won't change, so the prices won't change much.

An alternative approach would be to make it illegal to own residential property and not reside there. This would at least force the investment apartments to be either sold or rented out, flooding the market with more property to help level out or even reduce the prices.

 

[Bromley boy]

Remind me. How many times has the UK faced leaving the EU in the past?

Precisely the same number of times as the U.K. faced the 2008 sub prime financial crisis and resulting recession (ie zero!!!).

Yet we were told at the time, that would never happen! So, why should BREXIT doom laden predictions be any more accurate?

It’s richly and deeply ironic that you called me an idiot earlier... Which of us is confused!? What on earth did you think would happen when you voted leave?!

At least I’m consistent... I stick to my guns on my leave vote for ideological reasons. I don’t care how poor it might make us (including me)...

 

[Mintona]

Are people really still supporting this? What utter morons.

 

[bnm]

Are people really still supporting this? What utter morons.

Indeed. I made a margin call in voting leave. Right on the fence getting splinters. Only the thought of sticking two fingers up at the idiot who called the referendum swayed me.

Wrong call as it turns out. I can admit that.

Beware of those who are ideologically consistent. Blinkered, staring straight ahead and not deviating. Taking the bus right over the cliff. With the rest of us onboard.

But not to worry. We'll survive that. The fanatics have explained we're all in it together. We can all be poorer together.

We'll get our blue passports and the ideological racism and xenophobia will stop the much needed migrants filling the job vacancies, whilst at the same time making it uncomfortable for those migrants already settled here.

March 2019 is a date that will live on infamy. Long after the idiots have left the stage, the Shakespearean tragedy will continue.

 

[Bromley boy]

An exodus of EU citizens from the London area would quite possibly contribute to that.

Preferably an exodus on a biblical scale... I’ll say one thing for Eastern Europeans - they work harder than indigenous Brits for their money...

On the other hand, most of those EU citizens will have been doing jobs which need doing. In most cases someone else will simply move to the area, either British or non-EU and the demand for housing won't change, so the prices won't change much.

Hmm, up to a point, if jobs need doing we should be compelling our lazy fellow U.K. citizens to do them!?

I don’t care so long as some good, strong specimens are put to work in order to continue paying down my second mortgage ...

 

[Senex]

So the government is now putting up £100 million to investigate what will be needed if we duly get kicked out of Galileo after Brexit and is then ready to pay several billions to develop an all-British system if needed. And this is the government that won't back the Swansea Bay barrage, South Wales railway electrification, Midland Main Line electrification, completion of the Manchester Hub modernisation, completion of dual carriageway on the A1 north of Newcastle, etc, etc, (and still keeps us guessing on the fate of Trans-Pennine modernisation). What other countries do we know of that have had vanity projects for their military but steadily decaying infrastructure?

 

[Bromley boy]

But not to worry. We'll survive that. The fanatics have explained we're all in it together. We can all be poorer together.

We'll get our blue passports and the ideological racism and xenophobia will stop the much needed migrants filling the job vacancies, whilst at the same time making it uncomfortable for those migrants already settled here.

Another load of complete and utter nonsense! Bravo, chap!

Few people voting leave did so for fanatical/Xenophonic/ racist reasons. Why would you suggest such a thing?!

As for being poorer, I’d happily be poorer to achieve the political result I want. Although, I rather doubt I will be, when it all comes out in the wash.

I’ll ask again, if you’re so against it, why on earth did you vote leave in the first place?